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Welcome to September! We’re five months into Major League Baseball’s 2024 season and there is plenty of intrigue entering the homestretch.

Which of the current contenders will be headed to the playoffs? How will the division races play out? Who are the favorites to win the MVP and Cy Young awards? And will Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani make history to cap off their incredible 2024 performances?

To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked a panel of 18 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond. We also asked a number of them to explain their answers — particularly those that went against the grain.

Below, you’ll find our picks for the postseason, major awards and more, including a few surprising answers and some bold predictions about what’s next.


The teams we’ll be talking about for the final month

Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?

Dodgers: 14
Phillies: 3
Brewers: 1

The Dodgers were the overwhelming pick. Why did you take them?

The Dodgers have a slight lead for the best record in baseball, due in large part to their unreal lineup. The good news for further growth is their lead isn’t so big that they’ll take their foot off the gas and the pitching staff will get better, possibly soon. Michael Kopech magically improved once acquired and is now the closer while Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could all return in the coming weeks. The worst performing members of the rotation are Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, who could revert to frontline form at any point. — Kiley McDaniel

The Dodgers’ pitching might have flaws, but their midseason acquisitions of Jack Flaherty and Kopech have been pivotal. With Max Muncy healthy and Tommy Edman strengthening center field, this lineup is MLB’s deepest. This team’s chemistry, as well as the offense is peaking at the right time, and Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50 HR/50 SB season seems almost inevitable. — Xavier Scruggs

The other two NL division leaders were also selected. Let’s hear the case for Philadelphia and Milwaukee:

The Phillies’ record since the All-Star break is below .500 and they’re still just 1.5 games back from the best mark. Now that they’ve seemed to right the ship, and with a schedule featuring only one other playoff team the rest of the way, I’m expecting a strong final month in Philly. — Dan Mullen

The surprising Brewers have overcome obstacles (rotation, injuries) all season and still are right there with the win leaders. With their soft remaining schedule, weak division and emerging youngsters, watch them sneak into the top overall spot. — Eric Karabell


How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?

All 12: 14
11 of the current 12: 4 (Boston replacing Minnesota: 3; Boston replacing Kansas City: 1)

The Red Sox were the clear choice from our writers who thought someone would break into the field in the final month. Why do you think they’ll pass the Twins?

Boston’s strength of schedule in September might provide that last push it needs. The Red Sox play teams below .500 in half of their remaining series, while the Twins still have to play series against Cleveland and Kansas City — meaning the Red Sox have multiple opportunities to make up ground. Not to mention that Boston’s pitching — a reason the team had started to slip — might have found its rhythm once again. All I’m saying is, don’t count the Sox out just yet. — Liz Finny


Who will win the NL West?

Dodgers: 17
Padres: 1

You were the only one to pick a team other than the Dodgers to win the NL West. Why did you go with the Padres?

It’s become standard fare to predict the Dodgers to fail in the postseason, so let’s raise the stakes a bit and predict a late-season collapse that ends with the Padres overtaking them to win the NL West. Can San Diego make up six games over the final 26? The Padres are the best team in baseball since the All-Star break, they’re getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back, and they finish the season with six games against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, the two teams ahead of them. — Tim Keown


Will Baltimore or New York win the AL East?

Yankees: 14
Orioles: 4

The Yankees were the pick by a vast majority of our experts. What do you think will put them over the top?

Jazz Chisholm is the player they didn’t know they needed for the past five years. — Doug Glanville

Why do you think Baltimore can pass New York?

Zach Eflin just came back. Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg shouldn’t be far behind. The Orioles are getting healthy at the right time, and between that and starting September with a series against the White Sox, things are looking up for the team with the most talent in the American League. — Jeff Passan


What about the AL Central?

Guardians: 12
Royals: 5
Twins: 1

Our voters seem to think Cleveland is starting to pull away here. Why did you go with the Guardians?

I would’ve chosen the Royals before they lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the rest of the regular season, placed Michael Lorenzen on the injured list, and tumbled into a five-game losing streak. Completing one of the greatest one-year turnarounds in history would’ve made for a great story, but that’s now unlikely. The Twins have the talent, but they can’t stay healthy. The Guardians’ lineup has lost some steam while the starting rotation remains a concern, but they’ve been in first place (alone or tied) since April 6. And they’ll stay there (alone) for the rest of the month. — Jorge Castillo

It hurts my heart a little to not pick the Royals, who I think will stick in the postseason bracket even after the unfortunate broken thumb suffered by Pasquantino. Their recent faceplant might have taken them out of the Central race, especially since Cleveland has the easiest schedule the rest of the way.

Kansas City still has a buffer when it comes to playing on into October but the slump means it can’t worry about position on the bracket so much as making sure they are somewhere on it at all. Over the past week, Cleveland has moved from worrying about the Royals to worrying about overtaking the Yankees for the top overall seed in the AL. — Bradford Doolittle


How many games will the White Sox lose?

126: 2
125: 2
124: 5
123: 3
122: 2
121: 3
119: 1

Only one of our voters predicted the White Sox falling short of the all-time record for losses. Why did you predict a 36-126 finish?

There’s a question being debated on sports talk radio in Chicago: Who will win more games in September, the Bears or the White Sox? The fact that it’s a legitimate debate is all you need to know about the latter team down the stretch. To wit: Their first 10 games of the month come against playoff contenders. Plus, they have a West Coast trip left. Losing 126 might be too kind. — Jesse Rogers


The players who will dominate the final month

The 2024 AL and NL MVPs will be …?

AL: Aaron Judge — 18
NL: Shohei Ohtani — 18

Judge and Ohtani were unanimous picks. Who has the best chance of passing either player for MVP?

Bobby Witt Jr. is on way to a 10-WAR season, leading the AL in batting average, runs and hits while closing in on 30 home runs, 30 steals and 100 RBIs. His defensive metrics are off the charts. In most seasons, he’s an easy pick for MVP. If Judge falters in September and the surprising Royals win the AL Central, Witt could swoop in. In the NL, Francisco Lindor has actually passed Ohtani in FanGraphs WAR. He’s also closing in on a 30/30 season and a possible Gold Glove. Defense matters and that gives Lindor a chance. — David Schoenfield


How many home runs will Aaron Judge finish with?

64: 1
63: 6
62: 1
61: 2
60: 6
59: 1

Almost all of our panel has Judge reaching at least 60 home runs, why do you think he’ll finish with 64 long balls?

Sixty-four homers out of the question, you say? I’m just extrapolating the numbers. Since Judge’s slow start, he hit 47 homers in a recent 105-game stretch, an unbelievable rate; he even hit seven homers in 9 games, so he can go off at any moment. The Yankees have 24 games remaining, and so not only will Judge get to his own record, but he’ll go beyond. — Buster Olney


Will Shohei Ohtani become the first member of the 50/50 club?

Yes: 16
No: 2

The vast majority of our voters say Ohtani will make history. Why do you believe he’ll get to 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases?

He’s going to get there because he’s fully capable, because he’s on pace to and because the Dodgers’ games will continue to matter down the stretch.

Perhaps just as important: He’s going to get there because it seems as if he really wants to. An understated element of Ohtani is how in tune he is with his mark on the sport. Given that he wouldn’t pitch, he saw this as the year when he could maximize his value on the bases. And he won’t let an opportunity for 50-50 slip past him. — Gonzalez


The 2024 Cy Youngs will go to …?

AL: Tarik Skubal — 18

NL: Chris Sale — 15
Zack Wheeler — 3

Skubal was unanimous in the AL and Sale was a runaway pick in the NL. Why did you go with Zack Wheeler?

Sale is -650 to win the NL Cy Young at ESPN BET, but should NOT be considered a runaway based on two factors: workload and trouble finishing seasons effectively. Sale’s 153⅔ innings are already more than he logged in 2021-23 combined (151) and soon to be more than any season since 2017. His career September/October splits are fairly loud — a 3.69 ERA and .739 OPS allowance are both career worsts by calendar month. Wheeler has no such history, making his +450 price at ESPN BET an especially good value. — Paul Hembekides


Who will win AL and NL Rookie of the Year?

AL: Colton Cowser — 15
Mason Miller — 2
Wilyer Abreu — 1

Our panel leaned heavily toward Cowser. Why do you think Miller can win AL honors?

In a wide-open award race, Miller’s elite skill set and historic whiff rates could catch voters’ eyes. It’s not like relievers haven’t won before when there wasn’t a clear, top-shelf choice (see: Devin Williams, 2020). Among rookies with 50-plus innings, his 43.4% K rate is second-best all time, .145 batting average allowed fifth-best and 1.71 FIP is ninth-best. He’ll also probably become the third rookie ever with 25-plus saves and 100-plus K’s. — Tristan Cockcroft

NL: Jackson Merrill — 13
Paul Skenes — 4
Jackson Chourio — 1

Merrill was the favorite, but you were one of four voters to choose Skenes. Why?

Jackson Merrill is a delightful player who heads into September with the narrative momentum to capture the award — and he’d be an absolutely worthy winner. Paul Skenes is just the best pitcher in baseball, and if he finishes the season with 140 innings of sub-2.25 ERA ball, he will have earned Rookie of the Year, even over a star like Merrill. — Passan


Bold predictions for the final month

Hembekides: Juan Soto will outproduce Aaron Judge in September and finish as AL MVP runner-up behind Judge and ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.

Schoenfield: Francisco Lindor will pass Shohei Ohtani in bWAR and becomes the first Mets position player to ever lead the National League.

Castillo: The Cubs and Mets will miss the playoffs by one game.

Rogers: The National League won’t have multiple .300 hitters

Passan: I’ll take that a step further. The winner of the National League batting crown will become the first batting champion in baseball history with a sub-.300 average. Currently, Marcell Ozuna, Trea Turner and Luis Arraez are the only NL players over .300, and so few hitters can string together any sort of batting-average consistency, it makes the possibility of Carl Yastrzemski losing his record-low .301 average for a batting champion that much more realistic.

Doolittle: Maybe not so bold, but Erick Fedde, who was traded at the deadline, will finish with a team-high seven wins for the team he left, the White Sox.

Matt Marrone: The Yankees will finally bite the bullet and DFA two-time batting champ DJ LeMahieu.

Scruggs: Marcell Ozuna will win the NL Triple Crown.

Karabell: Jacob deGrom makes his season debut on Sept. 12 at Seattle, and he throws six perfect innings. Jacob Latz, David Robertson and Kirby Yates finish off the first official shared perfect game.

Keown: The Tigers — yes, the Tigers — will parlay their strength of schedule (No. 27) into a late and unexpected run at the last AL wild-card spot. They’ll come up short, but there will be meaningful baseball in Detroit in the last week of September.

McDaniel: Chris Sale will win the ERA title (currently second to Skubal) and become the first pitcher since Corbin Burnes in 2021 to win what I call the FanGraphs pitching quadruple crown: lead qualified pitchers in ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP.

Tim Kurkjian: The Astros will win the AL West handily and will enter October as the team to beat in the American League.

Olney: We won’t have any teams finish with 100 wins, but three teams — besides the White Sox, the Marlins and Rockies — will finish with 100 defeats.

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Crochet retires 17 straight as Red Sox swipe G1

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Crochet retires 17 straight as Red Sox swipe G1

NEW YORK — Garrett Crochet retired 17 consecutive batters in a sparkling pitching performance, and pinch-hitter Masataka Yoshida lined a two-run single off reliever Luke Weaver that sent the Boston Red Sox past the New York Yankees 3-1 on Tuesday night in their AL Wild Card Series opener.

New York loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth inning, but All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman pitched out of the jam against his former team. Boston is 10-4 versus its longtime rival this year and halfway to winning the best-of-three playoff.

Game 2 is Wednesday night in the Bronx again, with Aaron Judge and the Yankees needing a victory to extend their season. Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA) will start for New York, opposed by Brayan Bello (11-9, 3.35).

Crochet gave up only Anthony Volpe‘s second-inning homer and improved to 4-0 against the Yankees this year, throwing a career-high 117 pitches in a marquee duel of ace left-handers with Max Fried. Crochet struck out 11 and walked none over 7⅔ innings while allowing four hits.

“The stuff was really good at that point,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said of Crochet, keeping him in well into the eighth inning. “He was throwing 97, 98, and the previous inning was a quick one. So, it gave us a chance to push the envelope.”

Pitching with a 2-1 lead after Yoshida’s go-ahead hit in the seventh, Crochet extended his streak of retired batters until Volpe singled with one out in the eighth. Crochet’s final pitch was his fastest at 100.2 mph, which Austin Wells took for a called third strike.

“He’s the best pitcher in the game,” Yankees slugger Aaron Judge said of Crochet. “He’s going to work all of his pitches, and he threw a little bit more off-speed early on. But we got the Volpe homer, and we got some guys on, but we couldn’t do much after that.”

Chapman retired Jose Caballero on a fly out to finish the eighth before Alex Bregman, playing his 100th postseason game, hit an RBI double in the ninth off David Bednar.

Paul Goldschmidt, Judge and Cody Bellinger loaded the bases with consecutive singles starting the bottom half, but Chapman recovered to get the save when he struck out Giancarlo Stanton, retired Jazz Chisholm Jr. on a fly out and fanned Trent Grisham with a 101 mph fastball.

Boston improved to 13-12 against the Yankees in the postseason, winning nine of the past 10 meetings.

Crochet threw the most pitches in a postseason game since Washington’s Stephen Strasburg tossed 117 against St. Louis in 2019.

Fried pitched shutout ball for 6⅓ innings but a Yankees bullpen that had a 4.37 ERA during the regular season, 23rd among the 30 teams, faltered again.

Weaver relieved with no one on, got ahead of Ceddanne Rafaela 0-2 in the count, then walked him on 11 pitches.

Nick Sogard grounded a hit into right-center, hustling to second when Judge didn’t sprint to pick up the ball. Yoshida lined the next pitch, a fastball at the letters, to center for a 2-1 lead.

Weaver had a 1.05 ERA in his first 24 appearances, was sidelined for 2½ weeks by a strained left hamstring, then had a 5.31 ERA over his final 40 games.

Fried got 19 swings and misses, striking out six and walking three while allowing four hits in 6⅓ innings. He escaped a second-and-third, two-out jam in the fourth, then first-and-second, one-out trouble in the fifth.

Volpe, who slumped to a .212 average this year, put the Yankees ahead when he drove a sinker to the opposite field, where the ball landed a half-dozen rows into the right-field seats. Volpe’s drive would have been a home run in all but one big league stadium: Fenway Park.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Winners and losers of Kirill Kaprizov’s NHL record-setting contract

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Winners and losers of Kirill Kaprizov's NHL record-setting contract

The Minnesota Wild handed out the largest contract in NHL history on Tuesday to star winger Kirill Kaprizov, as the 28-year-old will earn $136 million on an eight-year term through the 2033-34 season.

It’s a deal worth more in total money that the one Alex Ovechkin signed with the Washington Capitals ($124 million) in 2008, and carries a higher average annual value (AAV) than the one signed by Leon Draisaitl with the Edmonton Oilers ($14 million) last September.

It’s a contract that has sent shockwaves through the NHL. Some will benefit from its repercussions. Some will not. Here are the winners and losers of the Kaprizov contract, as we see them:


Winner: Bill Guerin

It was Guerin that finally got Kaprizov to leave the KHL for the NHL in 2021, succeeding where two previous Wild GMs had failed. Now he’s the guy that’s helped convinced Kaprizov to stay in Minnesota.

Guerin faced some enormous challenges in getting this done. One of them was the lure of unrestricted free agency under a rising salary cap, as Kaprizov wouldn’t have suffered from a lack of suitors. Some of those suitors might have been more appealing than the Wild: As one NHL agent told ESPN, the Wild’s status as a mid-tier Stanley Cup contender and Minnesota not being “a destination” for stars worked against them. Kaprizov had the hammer in negotiations, as was evidenced by the windfall he eventually received.

But Guerin also had some advantages here. His team could give Kaprizov the eighth contract year that the player reportedly wanted out of his next deal. He also had the financial backing of ownership to offer the richest contract in NHL history — $128 million earlier in September — and then increase that offer when Kaprizov didn’t sign.

Guerin also benefitted from having Kaprizov’s contract come up before a major change in the CBA rules. His contract pays out $128 million of his money in annual signing bonuses. That’s 94% of its value. Starting in Sept. 2026, contracts will only be able to offer signing bonuses worth 60% of the “aggregate compensation payable under the contract.”

Guerin landed the plane at time when many felt Kaprizov’s initial rejection of a record contract was his rejection of the franchise. Whether you agree with the compensation or not, give credit where it’s due: He got it done.


Loser: Kevin Cheveldayoff

Since 2021-22, Kyle Connor has scored just five fewer goals (153) than Kaprizov (158), having played 44 more games than the Minnesota winger. That’s on a 14.2% shooting percentage. Simply put, the 28-year-old Jet winger is as elite a goal-scorer as you’ll find on the wing — and as an unrestricted free agent next summer, should be compensated as such.

The question is whether that’ll happen in Winnipeg, where he’s entering his 10th season, or elsewhere.

If Connor was waiting for a salary domino to fall, this one landed with a sonic boom. Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff just watched Kaprizov reset the market for a player that scored 41 goals and had 56 assists for a career best 97 points in 82 games.

Cheveldayoff has done a masterful job retaining other stars like goalie Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, both at $8.5 million AAV over seven seasons. Market conditions were more favorable to the Jets when they re-upped in 2023. They aren’t now, thanks in part to Kaprizov.

The conundrum for Cheveldayoff and the Jets: Is Connor worth that money?

“He scores goals, but gives a lot back,” one NHL executive said.


Winner: Paul Theofanous

Wild owner Craig Leipold told The Athletic on Tuesday that the team was still convinced Kaprizov wanted to re-sign even after he didn’t agree to an eight-year, $128 million contract extension offer on Sept. 9.

“He never raised the money issue. That was always the agent,” Leipold said. “So, I mean, I think we always thought that we’re going to get this thing done, and we thought, at least in the last week or so, 17 was the number.”

Theofanous, Kaprizov’s agent, is a legendarily tough negotiator. He not only managed to get another $8 million added to an offer that would have already set a new NHL contract value record, but he negotiated a contract structure that pays Kaprizov $128 million in “buyout-proof” bonus money. Theofanous dug his heels in and won huge, despite the Wild’s belief that Kaprizov wouldn’t take this to free agency.


Loser: Player movement

The era of player retention continues.

The upper limit of the NHL salary cap this season is $95.5 million. It’s been estimated that the ceiling will be at least $104 million in 2026-27, the first time the NHL’s salary cap will have crested over the century mark. Some predicted this inflation would lead to a spike in player movement, as teams had more to spend on acquiring talent.

On the contrary, the rising cap has seen teams retain their players throughout the offseason, no longer sweating out the pressure points that the cap created. Kaprizov is the latest name to stay where his stuff is, and he’s likely not the last.


Winner: Getting locked in early

Hart Levine of the salary cap site Puck Pedia believes that hockey fans just have to accept that this is the new normal under the salary cap.

“It’s a big number, but we just have to get used to living in a world where the cap is going up each year. It’s going up 9% from this year to next year,” he told me.

It’s all about context. Heck, even Kaprizov’s deal might look like a bargain in the next few seasons.

Take Draisaitl’s contract that he signed last September. Levine says that under next year’s salary cap, Draisaitl’s contract would have been worth $15.25 million against the cap. Conversely, if you took Kaprizov’s contract and put into current cap dollars, the AAV would be around $15.6 million.

One NHL executive likened the rise in the salary cap to a “tidal wave” that’ll just keep adding more and more large contracts as it grows. Which means the key for teams is locking players in before that wave crests.

When discussing good cap management with some NHL sources, one team that came up multiple times was the Carolina Hurricanes.

Their front office, now led by GM Eric Tulsky, has locked up several players to long-term deals ahead of the dramatic salary cap increase: Forwards Sebastian Aho ($9.75 million through 2031-32), Seth Jarvis ($7,420,087 through 2031-32) and Logan Stankoven ($6 million through 2033-34), as well as newly acquired defenseman K’Andre Miller ($7.5 million through 2032-33) and forward Nikolaj Ehlers ($8.5 million through 2030-31).

The Canes have their core locked up long-term at a reasonable rate, and the flexibility to still go after big players via trades as they’ve done the last two seasons with Jake Guentzel and Mikko Rantanen.

Speaking of which …


Losers: Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen

Kaprizov’s contract will no doubt continue the dialogue about NHL cities with high income taxes and NHL cities that don’t have income taxes, a.k.a. the teams that happen to be winning Stanley Cups with some frequency lately.

According to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, Minnesota has the fifth-highest top income tax rate in the U.S., at 9.85%. There’s no question that’s a factor in Kaprizov getting $136 million over eight seasons, because he wouldn’t have gotten that same number in a no-tax state. Jeff Marek of Daily Faceoff spoke with one player agent who said Kaprizov’s average annual value in a place like Florida would have been around $14 million.

If that’s the case, then Kaprizov still would have made more annually than Mitch Marner of the Vegas Golden Knights and Mikko Rantanen of the Dallas Stars, who both signed mega-contracts in the last year worth $12 million against the cap through 2032-33.

Marner’s points-per-game average of the last three seasons was equal to Kaprizov’s (1.24) while Rantanen’s was right behind them (1.22). If either of them had the power of clairvoyance and could see what Kaprizov just earned, what would those contracts have looked like?


Winner: Kirill Kaprizov

We must obviously shout out the man himself, who set a new standard for NHL contracts in both overall value and average annual value. From a production standpoint, he’s among the best offensive hockey players in the world: He plays to a 50-goal pace, is a dynamic playmaker and shown to be a more committed defensive player than one might assume given his gaudy stats.

But there’s one number that’s never added up for Kaprizov, and that’s games played. The winger has played over 80 games once in his NHL career, back in 2021-22 when finished seventh in the MVP voting. Last season saw him limited to 41 games. He’s 28 years old, turning 29 next April.

Again, it’s a credit to Kaprizov that he has still managed to post astounding numbers despite those injuries. But for this level of investment, the Wild need him on the ice and not in the press box. Minnesota was 63-41-12 with Kaprizov in the lineup over the last two seasons and 21-23-4 without him. He’s a difference-maker.


The most complicated contract decision in the NHL just got a little more complicated.

McDavid is entering the final year of his contract with the Oilers. As we’ve written previously, everything is on the table for his future — from taking a shorter-term deal to remain in Edmonton to leaving for what would unquestionably become the richest free-agent contract the NHL has ever seen.

The latest speculation around the league: If McDavid does decide to remain with the Oilers beyond this season, it wouldn’t be for a max contract, with the idea being that McDavid would want fair compensation while giving Edmonton GM Stan Bowman flexibility to improve the team in pursuit of McDavid’s elusive Stanley Cup ring.

Yet there are also those who believe that McDavid should secure the bag even if he stays in Edmonton — after all, why should he pay for the team’s cap-management missteps?

McDavid is the best hockey player in the world. Whatever he wants on a new contract in Edmonton, they’re going to give him. It’s the “whatever he wants” that’s now a thornier issue, as the bar has been raised from Draisaitl’s $14 million to Kaprizov’s $17 million. Will McDavid choose to reset that bar whenever — or wherever — he signs his new deal?

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Skubal ties Tigers record with 14 Ks in G1 win

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Skubal ties Tigers record with 14 Ks in G1 win

CLEVELAND — Tarik Skubal tied a franchise postseason record with 14 strikeouts and the Detroit Tigers defeated the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 on Tuesday in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series.

Will Vest recorded the final four outs for Detroit, surviving a tense ninth inning after Cleveland star Jose Ramirez got hung up between third base and home for the second out.

The Tigers, who struggled down the stretch, allowing Cleveland to secure the AL Central title, can advance to the division series round for the second straight year with a win Wednesday.

“It means a lot to take the ball in Game 1,” Skubal said. “To have the trust in our whole organization, it means a lot. And it doesn’t really matter how we got here. We’re up 1-0 in a best of three.”

Detroit scored the go-ahead run in the seventh inning when Zach McKinstry‘s safety squeeze scored Riley Greene from third.

Ramirez led off the ninth with an infield single and advanced to third when shortstop Javier Baez threw wide of first base. Vest struck out pinch-hitter George Valera, then Kyle Manzardo hit a grounder to Vest. Ramirez broke for home but was cut off by Vest, who chased him down and tagged him out.

“That ball’s two feet either way, he scores,” Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said. “It just happened to go right back to Vest. So we play aggressive. We always do. We run the bases aggressive. I wouldn’t play that any other way.”

C.J. Kayfus then hit a flyout to Baez in shallow left to end it.

Skubal, who is favored to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award, set a career high for strikeouts. He was dominant and unfazed as he pitched on the same mound where one week ago, he threw a 99 mph fastball that struck Cleveland designated hitter David Fry in the nose and face during the sixth inning.

“I thought my outing was coming to a close,” Skubal said when asked about being allowed to continue on into the eighth inning. “But I was ready to go back out there. I’m never going to take myself out of a game, and I don’t ever really want the handshake.”

The right-hander went 7 2/3 innings and threw 107 pitches, one off his career high, including 73 strikes. He allowed one run on only three hits, with two being infield singles, and walked three. His fastball averaged 99.1 mph, 1.6 mph above his season average.

Skubal outdueled Cleveland starter Gavin Williams, who was just as effective but hurt by a pair of Guardians errors. Williams allowed two unearned runs in six-plus innings on five hits with eight strikeouts and one walk.

“I was just worried about doing my best to execute each pitch,” Skubal said, “and just do what makes me a good pitcher, and that’s getting ahead, and getting guys into leverage.”

Detroit took a 1-0 lead in the first inning when Kerry Carpenter scored on Spencer Torkelson’s two-out bloop single to left field. Carpenter got aboard on a base hit to right but advanced to second on a fielding error by Johnathan Rodriguez.

The Guardians finally got to Skubal in the fourth by not having a ball leave the infield.

Angel Martinez hit a slow grounder between Skubal and second baseman Gleyber Torres to lead off the inning. He advanced to second on Ramírez’s walk.

With two outs and runners on first and second, Gabriel Arias hit a high chopper over Skubal. The ball landed on the infield grass between the mound and second base. Skubal fielded the ball as Martinez rounded third. Martinez’s left hand touched the plate before Detroit catcher Dillon Dingler applied the tag.

Martinez was originally ruled out on the head-first slide, but it was overturned by instant replay to tie the game at 1-1.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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