Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the next few months, but it raises more questions than it answers.
Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software releases
September 2024
v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between necessary interventions
v12.5.2 on AI3 computer (unified models for AI3 and AI4)
Actually Smart Summon
Cybertruck Autopark
Eye-tracking with sunglasses
End-to-End network on highway
Cybertruck FSD
October 2024
Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
v13 with ~6x improved miles between necessary interventions
Q1 2025
FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)
Electrek’s Take
The main problem is improvement against what? Tesla has always refused to release FSD intervention data so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can achieve a “3x improvement in miles between necessary intervention.”
As we previously reported, we do have some crowdsourced data, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we might as well use that since Tesla refuses to release official data.
v12.4 never made it to a wide release and v12.5 was supposed to go wide release last month and it only made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the last time I checked.
Now, instead of a 5 to 10x increase on v12.4, which was a flop, he is now talking about a “~3x improvement” this month with the release of v12.5.
Let’s compare the data so far. Based on the crowdsourced data, the average of the v12.5.1 versions is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between critical disengagement.
This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between critical disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the last FSD version that went into a wide release earlier this year:
Keep in mind that to achieve Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it would likely need to be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between critical disengagement, aka 390x over the current data.
Based on Elon’s new timeline and compared to this data, we should be at around ~400 miles between “necessary interventions ” by the end of the month.
The term “necessary interventions” is also problematic and raises questions.
The crowdsourced data is also trying to distinguish “critical” disengagements and it makes sense since many disengagements have nothing to do with the level of safety in FSD. Some disengagement are due to comfort and frustration on the driver’s part.
With v12.5.1, a lot of the disengagement have to do with navigation errors and speed. The former, Tesla will certainly need to fix. The latter is more problematic as it actually influence the data.
Many FSD drivers complain that the latest update is drives extremely slow. This should help with the performance and reduce critical disengagement, but it will not help overall disengagement as many drivers just grow frustrated, myself included, and take control of the vehicle to start driving at more reasonable speeds.
So yes, as per my headline, this roadmap brings more questions than it answers mainly due to the fact that Tesla refuses to release intervention data and yet, it uses increases in the metric to track progress.
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National Grid Renewables has broken ground on its 100 MW Apple River Solar Project in Polk County, Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin solar farm, which will use US-made First Solar Series 6 Plus bifacial modules, will be constructed by The Boldt Company, creating 150 construction and service jobs. Apple River Solar will generate over $36 million in direct economic benefits over its first 20 years.
Once it comes online in late 2025, Apple River Solar will supply clean energy to Xcel Energy, which serves customers throughout the Upper Midwest. According to National Grid Renewables, the solar farm will generate enough energy to power around 26,000 homes annually. It will also offset about 129,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year – equivalent to taking 30,900 cars off the road.
“We are excited to see this project begin as it underscores our dedication to delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy to our customers,” said Karl Hoesly, President, Xcel Energy-Wisconsin and Michigan. “This project is an important step in those goals while bringing significant economic benefits to Polk County and the local townships.”
Electrekreported in February that Xcel Energy, Minnesota’s largest utility, expects to cut more than 80% – and possibly up to 88% – of its emissions by 2030, putting it on track to hit Minnesota’s goal of net zero by 2040. It also says it’s on track to achieve its clean energy goals for all the Upper Midwest states it serves – Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan.
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Tesla has announced that it will finally deliver 500 kW charging as it is about to install its long-awaited V4 Supercharger cabinets.
The rollout of Supercharger V4 has been a strange one, to say the least.
Tesla has been deploying the new charging stations for two years and calling them “Supercharger V4”, but it has only been deploying the charging stalls.
Supercharger stations are made of two main parts: the stalls, which are where the charging cable is located, and the cabinets, which are generally located further back and include all the power electronics.
For all these new “Supercharger V4”, Tesla was actually using Supercharger V3 cabinets. This has been limiting the power output of the charging stations to 250 kW – although
Today, Tesla officially announced its “V4 Cabinet”, which the automaker claims will enable of “delivering up to 500kW for cars and 1.2MW for Semi.”
Here are the main features of the V4 Cabinet as per Tesla:
Faster charging: Supports 400V-1000V vehicle architectures, including 30% faster charging for Cybertruck. S3XY vehicles enjoy 250kW charge rates they already experience on V3 Cabinet — charging up to 200 miles in 15 minutes.
Faster deployments: V4 Cabinet powers 8 posts, 2X the stalls per cabinet. Lower footprint and complexity = more sites coming online faster.
Next-generation hardware: Cutting-edge power electronics designed to be the most reliable on the planet, with 3X power density enabling higher throughput with lower costs.
Tesla reports that its first sites with the new V4 Cabinets are going into permitting now. The company expects its first sites to open next year.
We recently reported about Tesla’s new Oasis Supercharger project, which includes larger solar arrays and battery packs to operate the charging station mostly off-grid.
Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to all Supercharger stations, and Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.
While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.
Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:
It took about 8 years, but it sounds like the pieces are now getting actually in place with Supercharger V4, Megapacks, and this new Oasis project.
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Hyundai has a new secret weapon it’s about ready to unleash. To revamp the brand in China and counter BYD’s surge, Hyundai is launching a new AI-powered EV next year. The new model will be Hyundai’s first dedicated electric car for the world’s largest EV market.
With the help of Haomo, a Chinese autonomous startup, Hyundai will launch its first EV equipped with generative AI. It will also be its first model designed specifically for China.
A Hyundai Motor official said (via The Korea Herald) the company is “working to load the software” onto the new EV model, “which will be released in the Chinese market next year.” The spokesperson added, “The level of autonomous driving is somewhere between 2 and 2.5.”
In comparison, Tesla’s Autopilot is considered a level 2 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) on the SAE scale (0 to 5), meaning it offers limited hands-free features.
With Autopilot, you still have to keep your eyes on the road and hands on the steering wheel, or the system will notify you and eventually disengage.
Hyundai IONIQ 5 with Waymo autonomous driving tech (Source: Hyundai)
Haomo’s system, DriveGPT, unveiled last spring, takes inspiration from the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT.
The system can continuously update in real-time to optimize decision-making by absorbing traffic data patterns. According to Haomo, DriveGPT is used in around 20 models as it looks to play a bigger role in China.
Hyundai at the Beijing Auto Show 2024 (Source: Hyundai Motor)
Hyundai hopes new AI-powered EV boosts sales in China
Electric vehicle sales continue surging in China. According to Rho Motion, China set another EV sales record last month with 1.2 million units sold, up 50% from October 2023.
Over 8.4 million EVs were sold in China in the first ten months of 2024, a notable 38% increase from last year.
Hyundai IONIQ 6 (Source: Hyundai)
BYD continues to dominate its home market. According to Autovista24, BYD accounted for 32.9% of all PHEV and EV (NEV) sales in China through September, with over half of the top 20 best-selling EV models.
Tesla was second with a 6.5% share of the market, but keep in mind these numbers only include plug-in models (PHEV).
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 (Source: Hyundai)
Like most foreign automakers, Hyundai is struggling to keep up with the influx of low-cost electric models in China. Beijing Hyundai’s sales have been slipping since 2017. Through September, Korean automaker’s share of the Chinese market fell to just 1.2%.
According to local reports, Hyundai is partnering with other local tech companies like Thundersoft, a smart cockpit provider, and others in China to power up its next-gen EVs
With its first AI-powered EV launching next year, Hyundai hopes to turn things around in the region quickly. The new model will be one of five to launch in China through 2026.
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