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Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky speaks with Anthropic CEO and co-founder Dario Amodei during AWS re:Invent 2023, a conference hosted by Amazon Web Services, at The Venetian Las Vegas in Las Vegas on Nov. 28, 2023.

Noah Berger | Getty Images

Almost three years into a largely dormant IPO cycle, venture capitalists are in a tough spot.

The private market is dotted with richly valued artificial intelligence startups, including some that are described as generational companies. But venture firms in need of exits aren’t going to get relief from AI anytime soon.

That’s because, unlike prior tech booms, VCs aren’t at the center of this one. Rather, the biggest companies in the industry — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia — have been pouring in billions of dollars to fuel the growth of capital-intensive companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Scale AI and CoreWeave.

With some of the most well-capitalized companies on the planet flinging open their wallets to fund the generative AI craze, the normal pressures to go public don’t apply. And even if they did, this batch of startups is nowhere near showing off the profitability metrics that public investors need to see before taking the plunge.

Tech giants have more than money. They’re also throwing in tangible benefits like cloud credits and business partnerships, packaging the types of incentives that VCs can’t match.

“The AI startups we talk to are having no problems fundraising at robust valuations,” Melissa Incera, an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told CNBC. “Many are still reporting having too much unsolicited investor interest at the moment.”

Add it all up and venture investors are maneuvering through a deep market distortion with no clear end in sight. U.S. VC exit value this year is on track to reach $98 billion, down 86% from 2021, according to an Aug. 29 report from PitchBook, while venture-backed IPOs are expected to be at their lowest since 2016. Traditional VCs are actively trying to play in AI, but they’re mostly investing higher up the so-called stack, putting money into nascent startups building applications that require far less capital than the infrastructure businesses powering generative AI.

So far in 2024, investors have pumped $26.8 billion into 498 generative AI deals, including from strategic investors, according to PitchBook. That continues a trend from 2023, when generative AI companies raised $25.9 billion for the full year, up more than 200% from 2022.

According to Forge Global, which tracks private market transactions, AI as a percentage of total fundraising jumped from 12% in 2023 to 27% so far this year. The average round for AI companies is 140% bigger this year compared to last, the data shows, while for non-AI companies the increase is only 10%.

Chip Hazard, co-founder of early-stage firm Flybridge Capital Partners, says investing dollars are shifting “up the stack” and that “enduring companies will be built at the application layer.”

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That’s all going to take time to develop. In the meantime, startup investors continue to suffer from the fallout of the market turn that began in early 2022, when soaring inflation led the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates, pushing investors out of risky assets and into more conservative investments that finally offered yield.

Tech stocks have since bounced back, driven by Nvidia, whose chips are used in training most of the AI models, and other mega-cap stocks like Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. The Nasdaq hit a record in July before selling off a bit of late. But IPOs and pricey acquisitions have been few and far between, leaving venture firms with minimal returns for their limited partners.

“Managers are having a difficult time raising additional funds without delivering LP returns, especially because more liquid, lower-risk investments now have attractive yields thanks to high interest rates,” PitchBook wrote in its August report.

The one pure AI company that appears close to going public is Cerebras, a chipmaker founded in 2016 that’s backed by some traditional VCs including Benchmark and Foundation Capital. As a semiconductor company, Cerebras never reached the lofty valuations of the AI model developers and other infrastructure players, topping out at $4 billion in 2021, prior to the market’s downward tilt.

Cerebras said in late July that it had confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with the SEC. The company still hasn’t filed its public prospectus. A Cerebras spokesperson declined to comment.

When it comes to the foundational model companies, the astronomical valuations they quickly commanded put them in a very “different league,” outside of the realm of VCs, said Jeremiah Owyang, a partner at Blitzscaling Ventures.

It’s “very challenging for VCs to be promising any exits right now, given the market conditions,” Owyang said, adding that early-stage investors may not see returns for seven to 12 years on their newer bets. That’s for their companies that ultimately succeed.

Elbowing into big rounds

Firms like Menlo Ventures and Inovia Capital are taking another route in AI.

In January, Menlo disclosed that it was raising a so-called special purpose vehicle (SPV) — called Menlo Inflection AI Partners — as part of a $750 million funding round in Anthropic in a deal that valued the company at more than $18 billion. Since Anthropic’s launch in 2021, Amazon has been the company’s principal backer as it tries to keep pace with Microsoft, which has poured billions of dollars into OpenAI and is reportedly part of an upcoming funding round that will value the ChatGPT creator at over $100 billion.

Menlo had previously invested in Anthropic in 2023 at a valuation of about $4.1 billion. To put in more money at a much higher price, Menlo had to go outside of its main $1.35 billion fund that closed last year. In raising an SPV, a venture firm typically asks for LPs to put money into a separate fund dedicated to a specific investment, rather than a portfolio of companies. Menlo filed to $500 million for the SPV.

In July, rival startup Cohere, which focuses on generative AI for enterprises, announced a $500 million funding round from investors including AMD, Salesforce, Oracle and Nvidia that valued the company at $5.5 billion, more than doubling its valuation from last year.

Cohere confirmed to CNBC that part of the financing, as well as some of its previous fundraising, came through an SPV. Inovia, based in Montreal, organized the latest SPV, and Shopify CEO Tobias Lutke was one of the participants.

Representatives from Menlo and Inovia didn’t respond to requests for comment.

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Some investment banks have also put together SPVs to allow multiple investors to pool capital into a hot company. JPMorgan Chase told CNBC that clients “have been able to access several leading AI investments” through the bank’s Morgan Private Venture unit.

Still, for investors to get a return there has to be an IPO at some point, as the regulatory environment makes it virtually impossible for big tech companies to orchestrate significant acquisitions. And companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia can be plenty patient with their investments — they have a combined $280 billion in cash and marketable securities on their balance sheets.

IPO pipeline will ‘continue to build’

The other potential path for liquidity is the secondary market, which involves selling shares to another investor.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which reportedly valued itself at over $200 billion in a recent employee tender offer, has enabled investor shares through secondary transactions. That may be what’s eventually in store for some investors in xAI, Musk’s 18-month-old AI startup, which is already valued at $24 billion after raising a $6 billion round in May.

But SpaceX is an outlier. For the most part, secondary transactions are viewed as a way for founders and early investors to cash out a portion of their stock in a high-valued company, not a way for VCs to generate returns. For that they need IPOs.

SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn Falcon 9 rocket sits on Launch Complex 39A of NASA’s Kennedy Space Center on August 26, 2024 in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Michael Harris, global head of capital markets at the New York Stock Exchange, told CNBC recently that NYSE is in dialogue with “a number of AI-focused companies” and said that, “as the industry evolves we’d expect that pipeline to continue to build.”

A select few AI companies have hit the public market this year. Astera Labs, which sells data center connectivity to cloud and AI infrastructure companies, debuted on the Nasdaq in March. The company is valued at about $6.5 billion, down from $9.5 billion after its first day of trading.

Tempus AI, a health-care diagnostics company backed by Google, went public in June. The stock is up around 50% from its debut, valuing the company at $8.6 billion.

The IPO floodgates never opened, though, and high-profile AI companies aren’t even talking about going public.

“Unless there is a dramatic shift in market sentiment, I would be hard-pressed to see why these AI startups would put themselves in the public spotlight when they can keep growing privately at such favorable terms,” said S&P’s Incera. Going public “would only amp up pressure to show returns or reduce spending, which for a lot of them is not a feasible ask at this point in the maturity curve,” she said.

Most venture investors are bullish on the potential for generative AI to eventually create big returns at the application layer. It’s happened in every other notable tech cycle. Amazon, Google and Facebook were all web applications built on top of internet infrastructure. Uber, Airbnb and Snap were a few of the many valuable apps built on top of smartphone platforms.

John-David Lovelock, an analyst at Gartner and a 35-year veteran of the IT industry, sees a big opportunity for generative AI in the enterprise. Yet, in 2024, only 1% of the trillion dollars spent on software will be from businesses spending on generative AI products, he said.

“There is money being spent on certain GenAI tools and the few applications that exist,” Lovelock said. “However, broad-scale rollout of GenAI within the broad enterprise software catalogue of products has not yet occurred.” 

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Tesla, Nvidia lead tech-heavy Nasdaq to one of best days of 2024 after Fed rate cut

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Tesla, Nvidia lead tech-heavy Nasdaq to one of best days of 2024 after Fed rate cut

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang presents the Nvidia Blackwell platform at an event ahead of the COMPUTEX Forum, in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 2, 2024.

Ann Wang | Reuters

Investors poured into tech stocks at one of the fastest clips of the year a day after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2020.

Led by a 7.4% gain in shares of Tesla and a 4% jump in Nvidia, the Nasdaq rose 2.5% on Thursday, its fourth-sharpest rally of 2024. The biggest gain of the year for the tech-heavy index was a 3% increase on Feb. 22.

Lower interest rates tend to benefit tech stocks, because reduced borrowing costs and bond yields make risky bets more attractive. In addition to the central bank’s half-point reduction, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated through its “dot plot” the equivalent of 50 more basis points of cuts by the end of the year, eventually coming down by 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday’s move.

While the Nasdaq has been on a steady rise this year, powered by Nvidia and the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, Thursday’s rally pushed the benchmark to its highest since mid-July. The Nasdaq peaked at 18,647.45 on July 10, and it’s now just 3.5% shy of that level, closing at 18,013.98.

Nvidia, whose processors are powering the generative AI boom and services like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, gained 4% on Thursday to $117.87. The shares are up about 138% for the year after more than tripling in 2023, though they’re still 13% below their all-time high reached in June.

Nvidia counts on a relatively small group of customers — namely Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle and OpenAI — for an outsized amount of revenue because those are the companies either developing large language models, hosting big AI workloads or doing both. Any sign of slackening demand creates concern around Nvidia’s stock.

But lower rates are seen as another potential boon.

Fellow chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom also rallied big on Thursday, gaining 5.7% and 3.9%, respectively. AMD is trying to challenge Nvidia in the AI market, but it’s far behind and has some skeptics on Wall Street. The stock is only up about 6% this year.

AMD CEO Lisa Su told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday that AI is a very long game, and we’re at the early stages.

“Let’s not be impatient. Tech trends are meant to play out over years, not over months,” Su said. “We’ve only been in this, let’s call it, ChatGPT world for maybe like 18 months. We’re all learning. It’s fun. We all use it.”

Su said AI is going to make its way into “all aspects of our lives,” including education and drug development.

“The beauty of all this is you need the computing, and that’s what we do,” Su said.

Tesla was the biggest gainer among tech’s megacap companies on Thursday, gaining 7.4%. The electric car maker has been a relative laggard for the year, down almost 2%, compared to the Nasdaq’s 20% gain. However, Tesla is up 72% from its low for the year in April.

Among the other top tech companies, Apple and Meta also closed with big gains, each rising almost 4%.

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Elon Musk’s X and Starlink face nearly $1 million in daily fines for alleged ban evasion in Brazil

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Elon Musk’s X and Starlink face nearly  million in daily fines for alleged ban evasion in Brazil

Combinations showing Entrepreneur Elon Musk (L) and Brazil Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes (R)

Reuters (L) | Getty Images (R)

Elon Musk’s X faces steep daily fines in Brazil for allegedly evading a ban on the service there, according to a statement from the country’s supreme court on Thursday.

The fines, imposed by Brazil’s supreme court (Supremo Tribuno Federal or STF) amount to $5 million in Brazilian reals, about $920,000, a day. The court said it would continue to impose “joint liability” on Starlink, the satellite internet service owned and operated by SpaceX, Musk’s aerospace venture.

The suspension of X in Brazil was initially ordered by the country’s chief justice Alexandre de Moraes at the end of August, with orders upheld by a panel of justices in early September. The court found that under Musk, X had violated Brazilian law, which requires social media companies to employ a legal representative in the country and to remove hate speech and other content deemed harmful to democratic institutions. The court also found that X failed to suspend accounts allegedly engaged in doxxing federal officers.

X recently moved to servers hosted by Cloudflare, and appeared to be using dynamic internet protocol addresses that constantly change, enabling many users in Brazil to access the site. In a previous setup, the company had used static and specific IP addresses in Brazil, which were more easily blocked by internet service providers at the order of regulators.

Musk, who owns the company formerly known as Twitter, has been lashing out at de Moraes for months, and continued to do so after the order was issued. He’s characterized de Moraes as a villain, comparing him to Darth Vader and Harry Potter character Voldemort. He has also repeatedly called for de Moraes to be impeached.

Brazil previously withdrew money for fines it levied against X from the accounts of X and Starlink at financial institutions in the country. The new fines will begin as of Sept. 19, with the court calculating a total based on “the number of days of non-compliance” with its earlier orders to suspend X nationwide.

While Musk presents himself as a free speech absolutist, X has acquiesced to requests to remove profiles and posts in countries including India, Turkey and Hungary.

Musk and X may be in the process of complying with Brazil’s takedown orders as well. Correio Braziliense, a Brazilian publication, reported on Wednesday that X has started blocking accounts as per suspension orders issued by the country’s supreme court.

Among the apparently banned accounts were those of some internet influencers who are reportedly being investigated for spreading misinformation and promoting attacks against democratic institutions in Brazil. 

X said it wasn’t intending to restore access for Brazilian users.

“When X was shut down in Brazil, our infrastructure to provide service to Latin America was no longer accessible to our team,” a company spokesperson told CNBC on Wednesday. “To continue providing optimal service to our users, we changed network providers. This change resulted in an inadvertent and temporary service restoration to Brazilian users. While we expect the platform to be inaccessible again in Brazil soon, we continue efforts to work with the Brazilian government to return very soon for the people of Brazil.”

Brazil’s national telecommunication agency, Anatel, has been ordered by de Moraes to prevent access to the platform by blocking Cloudflare, as well as Fastly and EdgeUno servers, and others that the court said had been “created to circumvent” a suspension of X in Brazil.

Cloudflare didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, but the company is reportedly cooperating with authorities in Brazil.

Before the suspension, X had an estimated 22 million users in Brazil, according to Data Reportal.

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Tesla’s Chinese rival Nio cuts price for new Onvo-branded car

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Tesla’s Chinese rival Nio cuts price for new Onvo-branded car

Chinese electric car company Nio launched its lower-cost brand Onvo on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, in Shanghai, China.

CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

HEFEI, China — There’s yet another Chinese electric car aiming to undercut Tesla, with a steeper discount.

Onvo, the lower-priced brand launched by premium electric car company Nio, announced its first car, the L60 SUV, would start as low as 149,900 Chinese yuan ($21,210) when buying battery services via a monthly subscription, starting at 599 yuan. That’s the equivalent to just over $1,000 a year for “renting” the battery.

A model with the battery and the car starts at 206,900 yuan. Deliveries are set to begin Sept. 28.

Nio shares briefly rose by more than 3.5% in U.S. trading Thursday after the Onvo L60 launch.

The L60’s new price is even less than what the company announced previously. When Nio launched the Onvo brand in May, the company said the L60 would start selling at 219,900 yuan versus Tesla’s Model Y at 249,900 yuan.

Nio CEO William Li told CNBC in an exclusive interview Thursday that he hoped to launch Onvo in Europe as soon as next year, but he did not have a specific timeframe to share.

He said the lower-priced brand would help the company better reach a global market, due to growing tariffs and other challenges for the premium Nio brand to reach its target overseas markets of Europe and the U.S.

As for whether Onvo would cannibalize the Nio-branded sales, Li said the two brands are aimed at very different price segments. He noted how Nio’s deliveries have improved since the company announced its plans for Onvo.

China’s electric car industry has become fiercely competitive over the last few years, with Nio and other companies vying for part of Tesla’s market share.

Geely-backed Zeekr is set to launch its first midsize electric SUV, the Zeekr 7X, in China on Sept. 20, starting at 239,900 yuan.

Xpeng in late August announced its mass market brand Mona would begin sales of its M03 electric coupe in China. The basic version starts at 119,800 yuan, with a driving range of 515 kilometers (320 miles) and some parking assist features.

A version of the Mona M03 with the more advanced “Max” driver assist features and a driving range of 580 kilometers will sell for 155,800 yuan.

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In comparison, Tesla’s cheapest car — the Model 3 — costs 231,900 yuan in China, after a price cut in April.

Chinese electric car companies have gradually expanded overseas, often starting with Europe. However, the European Union is nearing the end of a process that would increase tariffs on imported Chinese-made battery electric cars starting in early November. The bloc began an investigation into the Chinese EV makers’ use of subsidies last year.

Nio cooperated with the EU’s probe but was not sampled, meaning its cars would be subject to a 20.8% duty, as of a July announcement from the European Commission. That’s higher than the 19.9% tariffs slated for Geely cars, and 17.4% for BYD’s.

In the fourth quarter, Nio plans to start deliveries in the United Arab Emirates, Li told investors on an earnings call on Sept. 5.

“Because of the tariff in Europe now, selling or exporting cars from China to Europe becomes more expensive,” Li said, according to a FactSet transcript.

“So we will focus on the existing five European markets that we have already started. We also know that to establish NIO such a premium brand in the European market will also take a longer time, and we are very patient with that.”

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“But in the meantime, it doesn’t mean that we have stopped our activities there,” Li said. “Earlier this year, we have just opened our NIO house in Amsterdam, and we are still installing and deploying our power swap stations in Europe.”

He expects the L60 to reach 10,000 monthly deliveries in December, and 20,000 vehicle deliveries a month next year. He anticipates 15% vehicle margin on the new Onvo-branded cars.

The brand aims to have more than 200 stores in China by the end of this year, and already opened more than 100 as of early September.

Li said on the earnings call that Onvo and Firefly, an even lower-priced brand set to begin deliveries next year, would look to release vehicles for the international market.

— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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