Connect with us

Published

on

The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Continue Reading

US

‘Never-before-seen’ images of Jeffrey Epstein’s island released – showing ‘disturbing look into his world’

Published

on

By

'Never-before-seen' images of Jeffrey Epstein's island released - showing 'disturbing look into his world'

Images and video of Jeffrey Epstein’s private Caribbean island have been released by politicians in the US.

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee said on X that they were “a harrowing look behind Epstein’s closed doors”.

“We are releasing these photos and videos to ensure public transparency in our investigation and to help piece together the full picture of Epstein’s horrific crimes,” said representative Robert Garcia.

“We won’t stop fighting until we deliver justice for the survivors.”

The images show empty courtyards, bedrooms and other rooms from his villa.

.
Image:
.

Mr Garcia said: “It’s time for President Trump to release all the files, now.”

President Trump recently approved their release after US Congress voted overwhelmingly in favour.

More on Jeffrey Epstein

The US Department of Justice now has until mid-December to release thousands of files linked to civil and criminal cases involving Epstein.

.
Image:
.

It could shed more light on the paedophile financier, who socialised with figures including Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson.

Their connections have already been revealed in more than 20,000 other files disclosed last month.

But much more is set to follow as the Epstein Files Transparency Act demands release of all files relating to Epstein, including investigations, prosecutions and custodial matters, as well as records connected to Ghislaine Maxwell.

Politicians have said the files’ release is critical to uncovering whether powerful figures have received special treatment or protection.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the latest version.

You can receive breaking news alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News app. You can also follow us on WhatsApp and subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.

Continue Reading

US

Why Putin won’t agree to latest Ukraine peace plan

Published

on

By

Why Putin won't agree to latest Ukraine peace plan

The Americans were given the full VIP treatment on their visit to Moscow. 

There was a motorcade from the airport, lunch at a Michelin-starred restaurant, and even a stroll around Red Square.

It felt like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were on more of a tourist trail than the path to peace.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow

They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.

According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.

The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.

But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.

Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Image:
Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic

Putin thinks he’s winning…

Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.

It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.

It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.

Read more:
Michael Clarke answers your Ukraine war questions
‘Thousands’ of Westerners applying to live in Russia

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’

…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned

The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.

It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.

With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.

As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.

It all gives the impression that when it comes to Russia, the US prefers to placate rather than pressure.

According to the Kremlin, both Russia and the US have agreed not to disclose the details of yesterday’s talks in Moscow.

I doubt Volodymyr Zelenskyy is filled with hope.

Continue Reading

US

Hegseth cites ‘fog of war’ in defence of second US strike on alleged drug boat

Published

on

By

Hegseth cites 'fog of war' in defence of second US strike on alleged drug boat

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has cited the “fog of war” in defence of a follow-up strike earlier this year on a boat alleged to be carrying drugs in the Caribbean Sea.

His comments came on the day the Pope urged Donald Trump not to try to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro using military force.

Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday alongside Mr Trump, Mr Hegseth said the US had paused strikes because it was hard to find drug boats.

But strikes against drug traffickers would continue, he said.

Pope Leo XIV talks to reporters as he returns from visits to Turkey and Lebanon. Pic: AP
Image:
Pope Leo XIV talks to reporters as he returns from visits to Turkey and Lebanon. Pic: AP

During the cabinet meeting at the White House, Mr Hegseth said that he did not see that there were survivors in the water when the second strike was ordered and launched in early September, saying that “the thing was on fire”.

Mr Hegseth also said he “didn’t stick around” for the rest of the mission following the first strike, adding that the admiral in charge had “made the right call” in ordering it, which he “had complete authority to do”.

The Washington Post first reported that Mr Hegseth issued a verbal order for the second strike that killed survivors on the boat.

On Monday, the White House said that Navy vice admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley acted “within his authority and the law” when he ordered the second strike.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Pope pleads to Trump not to oust Venezuelan president by force

Asked if he supported the second strike on a boat in the Caribbean Sea in September, President Trump said he “didn’t know anything” and “still haven’t gotten a lot of information because I rely on Pete”, referencing Mr Hegseth.

On Tuesday, Pope Leo, the first American pontiff, said it would be better to attempt dialogue or impose economic pressure on Venezuela if Washington wanted to pursue change there.

Read more from Sky News:
Government delays Chinese ‘super embassy’ decision
Imran Khan healthy but isolated in jail, his sister says

The Trump administration has been weighing options to combat what it has portrayed as Mr Maduro’s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.

The socialist Venezuelan president has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.

Asked during a news conference about President Trump’s threats to remove Mr Maduro by force, the Pope said: “It is better to search for ways of dialogue, or perhaps pressure, including economic pressure.”

He added that Washington should search for other ways to achieve change “if that is what they want to do in the United States”.

The Pope was speaking as he flew home from visiting Turkey and Lebanon – his first overseas trip in the role.

Mr Maduro has said Venezuelans are ready to defend their country as the US considers a land attack.

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. Pic: Reuters

A map showing Venezuelan military facilities
Image:
A map showing Venezuelan military facilities

The president held a rally in Caracas amid heightened tensions with Mr Trump’s administration, which has been targeting what it says are boats carrying drug smugglers.

Mr Trump met his national security team on Monday evening, having warned last week that land strikes would start “very soon”.

It has not been confirmed what was discussed at the meeting. But White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: “There’s many options at the president’s disposal that are on the table – and I’ll let him speak on those.”

US forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats it claims were carrying narcotics to its shores over the last few months.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Did Pete Hegseth commit a war crime?

Mr Maduro – considered a dictator by many in the West – said on Monday that Venezuelans were ready “to defend [the country] and lead it to the path of peace”.

“We have lived through 22 weeks of aggression that can only be described as psychological terrorism,” he said.

Venezuela has said the boat attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder – and that Mr Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.

Continue Reading

Trending