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The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Vladimir Putin tells Donald Trump he will not back down from goals in Ukraine, Kremlin says

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Vladimir Putin tells Donald Trump he will not back down from goals in Ukraine, Kremlin says

Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he “will not back down” from Russia’s goals in Ukraine during a phone call today, the Kremlin has said.

The Russian president spoke to his US counterpart for almost an hour, and Mr Trump “again raised the issue of an early end to military action” in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.

In response, Mr Putin said “Russia will not back down” from its aims there, which include “the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs,” Mr Ushakov said.

The phrase “root causes” is shorthand for Moscow’s argument that it was compelled to invade Ukraine in order to prevent the country from joining NATO.

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Trump and Putin’s latest call on Ukraine

Ukraine and its European allies say this is a pretext to justify what they call an imperial-style war, but Mr Trump has previously shown sympathy with Russia.

At the same time, Mr Putin told the US president that Russia is ready to continue negotiating, the aide said.

The Russian president said any prospective peace deal must see Ukraine give up its NATO bid and recognise his country’s territorial gains.

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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands June 25, 2025. Pic: Reuters
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seen with Mr Trump in June, is pushing for Ukraine to join NATO. Pic: Reuters

He also briefed Mr Trump on agreements made last month, which saw Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners of war and dead soldiers.

Specific dates for the third round of peace talks in Istanbul were not discussed – nor was the US decision to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine.

Mr Putin and Mr Trump’s call came after the Pentagon confirmed some weapons due to be sent to Ukraine have been held as it reviews military stockpiles.

The paused shipments include air defence missiles and precision-guided artillery, two people familiar with the situation have said.

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The decision led to Ukraine calling in the acting US envoy to Kyiv on Wednesday to underline the importance of military aid from Washington.

Kyiv also cautioned that the move would weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against intensifying Russian airstrikes and battlefield advances.

Mr Putin and Mr Trump’s phone call was the sixth they have publicly disclosed since the US president returned to the White House in January.

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Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful’ tax cuts bill passes final hurdle in US Congress

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Donald Trump's 'big beautiful' tax cuts bill passes final hurdle in US Congress

Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ has been passed by the US congress, sending it to the president to sign into law.

The controversial tax breaks and spending cuts package cleared its final hurdle as the Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly approved the bill with a 218-214 vote.

The bill delivers tax breaks Mr Trump promised in his 2024 election campaign, cuts health and food safety programmes, and zeroes out dozens of green energy incentives.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it will lower tax revenues by $4.5trn over 10 years and add $3.4trn to the US’s $36.2trn debt.

But despite concerns over the 869-page bill’s price tag – and its hit to healthcare programmes – Republicans largely lined up in support, with just two rebelling on the vote.

Speaker Mike Johnson congratulated following the signing of Trump's bill. Pic: Reuters
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House Speaker Mike Johnson is congratulated following the vote. Pic: Reuters

Every Democrat in Congress voted against the bill, blasting it as a giveaway to the wealthy that will leave millions of Americans uninsured.

House Speaker Mike Johnson made the Republicans’ closing argument for the bill, telling Congress: “For everyday Americans, this means real, positive change that they can feel.”

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Earlier, the House’s Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries gave a record-breaking eight-hour and 44-minute speech against it.

“The focus of this bill, the justification for all of the cuts that will hurt everyday Americans, is to provide massive tax breaks for billionaires,” he said.

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The bill’s spending cuts largely target Medicaid, the health programme that covers 71 million Americans on low incomes.

It will tighten enrolment standards, institute a work requirement and clamp down on a funding mechanism used by states to boost federal payments.

The changes could leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance, according to the CBO.

On the other side of the ledger, it will stave off tax increases that were due to hit most Americans at the end of the year, when tax cuts from President Trump’s first term were due to expire.

It also sets up new tax breaks for overtime pay, seniors and tipped income.

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Kremlin shares details of Putin-Trump call

The bill narrowly passed the US Senate on Tuesday after vice president JD Vance cast the deciding vote to break a 50-50 tie.

Mr Trump will sign it into law on Friday at 5pm local time (10pm in the UK), the White House said.

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Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs denied bail after being convicted over prostitution-related offences

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Sean 'Diddy' Combs denied bail after being convicted over prostitution-related offences

Sean “Diddy” Combs has been found guilty of transportation for prostitution following a landmark trial in New York – but cleared of more serious charges of sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.

The hip-hop mogul was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura, and other crimes including kidnapping, arson and blackmail.

Jurors decided not all the allegations were proven – but Combs still faces several years in prison after being convicted of transporting people across the US, including Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane”, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.

However, with the not guilty verdict on three other more serious charges – racketeering conspiracy and two of sex trafficking – the 55-year-old has avoided a maximum possible sentence of life behind bars.

Despite a request by his defence team, he was denied bail ahead of sentencing – which has been scheduled for Friday 3 October.

Sean "Diddy" Combs reacts after verdicts are read of the five counts against him, during Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New
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Combs appeared upbeat in court as the verdict was announced. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters

Marc Agnifilo, part of Diddy’s defence team, described the ruling as “a victory of all victories”.

Outside the courthouse, he said the jury “got the situation right, or certainly right enough”.

Another of his lawyers, Nicole Westmoreland, said: “He actually battled for his freedom, for his innocence, and he did it.

“And, you know, a lot of times, people are too afraid to do it. Today is a major win to show what the system can do.”

The mixed result from the jury came not long into their third day of deliberations. In the courtroom in Manhattan, there were cheers from Combs’s family – and the rapper himself held his hands up in a prayer motion, looking at the jury, and hugged his defence lawyer Teny Geragos.

His mood seemed very different to just a day earlier – when he learned the jury had reached a verdict on four of the five charges, but were split on the racketeering charge.

After deliberating for longer on Wednesday, they came to a unanimous decision.

As the verdict sunk in, Combs appeared overwhelmed, kneeling at his chair and bowing his head in prayer once again.

“I’ll be home soon,” he said as he faced his family members. “I love you, Mum.”

Sean "Diddy" Combs reacts after verdicts are read of the five counts against him, during Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New
Image:
Combs later seemed to become overwhelmed with relief. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters

The application for bail

Combs’s defence team argued that as he had been cleared of the most serious charges, he should be bailed ahead of sentencing.

His lawyer Marc Agnifilo said he had been a model prisoner and added: “He’s not going to flee. He’s been given his life back.”

But prosecutor Maurene Comey argued Combs had a history of violence, which Judge Arub Subramanian agreed with. “At trial, the defence conceded the defendant’s violence in his personal relationships,” he said.

After being denied bail, Combs attempted get the judge’s attention – but after consulting with Mr Agnifilo, he did not speak.

Sean "Diddy" Combs watches as his former girlfriend Casandra "Cassie" Ventura is sworn in as a prosecution witness before U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian at Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New York, U.S., May 13, 2025 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane
Image:
Casandra ‘Cassie’ was heavily pregnant when she gave evidence at the start of the trial. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters

Cassie ‘paved the way’

Reacting to the verdict, Cassie’s lawyer Douglas H Wigdor said that although jurors did not find Combs guilty of sex-trafficking Cassie, she had “paved the way” for the other guilty verdicts.

“By coming forward with her experience, Cassie has left an indelible mark on both the entertainment industry and the fight for justice,” he said.

“We must repeat – with no reservation – that we believe and support our client, who showed exemplary courage throughout this trial.”

Cassie, who testified heavily pregnant just three weeks before giving birth, displayed “unquestionable strength”, he added, and “brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit”.

Videos of “freak off” sex sessions with male escorts were shown to jurors only during the seven-week trial, with the footage kept private from members of the public and media in court.

Read more:
How the trial unfolded
The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs

Sean "Diddy" Combs listens as Assistant U.S. Attorney Meredith Foster questions Ananya Sankar during his sex trafficking trial
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Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg

Former employees, along with escorts, hotel staff and police officers were among those to give evidence.

Cassie and Jane, who used a pseudonym, also testified. They told the court they were coerced into drug-fuelled “freak offs” – which were also referred to as “hotel nights” or “wild king nights” – with male escorts, and abused throughout their relationships.

Combs’s defence team presented a very different picture to show that sexual acts, including freak offs, were consensual.

They conceded the music star could be violent, had a bad temper and used drugs. He also had multiple relationships at the same time. But crucially, they said, while he was “not proud” of some of his behaviour, none of it made him guilty of the charges against him.

After hearing evidence of flights and travel for escorts and Cassie and Jane, paid for by Combs, as well as hotel bookings across the US and the Caribbean, jurors found him guilty of the transportation to engage in prostitution charges. However, they did not find that the allegations against the rapper amounted to sex trafficking or racketeering.

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CCTV footage shows Diddy ‘attacking’ Cassie in hotel

The Cassie hotel tape

Combs, known variously as Puff Daddy, P Diddy, and Diddy over the years, was once one of the most influential figures in hip-hop – famous as a producer, founder of Bad Boy Records and manager of the late Notorious BIG in the 1990s, as well as a rapper in his own right.

As an artist, he won three Grammys during his career, and had hits including I’ll Be Missing You, Come With Me, and Bad Boy For Life.

In September 2023, he received the “global icon” award from MTV and was given the key to New York City at a ceremony in Times Square, just a few miles away from the streets in Harlem where he spent his first years.

Allegations first came to prominence in November 2023, when Cassie filed a bombshell lawsuit accusing him of coercing her into unwanted sex sessions, as well as blackmail and several incidences of violence.

The suit was settled in 24 hours – for $20m, it emerged during the trial – but months later CNN aired hotel security footage showing Combs punching and kicking Cassie and throwing her to the floor in 2016.

He apologised after the video aired, saying: “I was disgusted when I did it.”

Footage from the hotel incident was shown during the trial.

Following the verdict, the rapper now awaits sentencing. He also still faces several civil lawsuits, most of which were filed in the wake of his arrest in September 2024.

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