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The presidential election on 5 November is set to be the tightest race since at least 2000.

Kamala Harris currently holds a slender lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest polls.

Harris leads Trump by 2.2 points

But the US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it’s about who wins in the right states.

How does the US election work?

If we add up the votes in “safe” states that the candidates probably don’t need to worry about so much, Harris is on 225 electoral college votes and Trump on 219, in their race to 270.

Of the 94 votes left in the eight crucial swing states where the races are tight, Harris needs 45 to win the presidency and Trump needs 51.

Harris is currently leading in all of those.

You can watch live coverage of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from midnight tonight on Sky News, on web and on mobile

Harris currently leads in all swing states

But Harris’s leads are narrow. All it takes is for Trump to turn fortunes around in Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and he will reach exactly the 51 he needs to win.

Despite being behind in the polls, Trump is the bookies’ favourite, reflecting a belief among punters that there’s a lot of movement to look out for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Predict who you think will win in each swing state and we’ll tell you who the president will be if you’re right.

Safe and swing states

Swing states

We can already be fairly confident of the result in lots of states. California and New York for example have voted Democrat at every election for the past 30 years.

Texas is the same the other way around – they haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost 50 years ago. Only five states changed hands in 2020.

DC has the longest unbroken streak of voting for the same party

That’s why those eight states that could go either way are so very important.

If Trump doesn’t win in Pennsylvania, his route to victory becomes increasingly narrow – he would need to win at least four of the six biggest remaining states.

If he does win there, however, he can become president with just two others.

There is no recent polling in Nebraska’s second district by pollsters recognised by our US partners NBC News, but that single electoral vote could make all the difference if other states go a certain way.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, he would be stuck on 269 – Nebraska 2nd would take him over the line.

What happens if it’s a tie in the electoral college?

How does the US election work?

Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.

Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.

California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.

Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.

There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.

In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.

So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.

In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.

Who is the bookies’ favourite?

We’ve mostly spoken about the polls so far, but there’s another often overlooked way to gauge the potential outcome of the election – by looking at where people are putting their money.

Betting markets, unlike polls, are driven by people willing to back their predictions with real money. This means they reflect not just today’s opinions but also the collective wisdom of people who are invested in the outcome about how things might change going forward.

Sky News is tracking the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. We’ve translated the odds into percentages to reflect the implied probability of each candidate’s victory.

The percentage refers to the candidates’ overall chance of winning, by whatever margin, not an implied vote share or electoral college split.

Who is the people’s favourite?

Sometimes it’s not about policy but just about whether you like one candidate more than another.

Americans are more likely to find Donald Trump unfavourable than favourable, but he has had a recent (relative) jump in popularity.

It’s the reverse for Harris at the moment – she had a brief bounce after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to a level close to Trump’s new high.

Harris's and Trump's favourability is similar

As the election approaches, keep an eye on all these trackers to see the polls and betting markets’ predictions evolve, and what they reveal about where the race to become president is going.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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US Senate strikes deal aimed at ending record-long government shutdown

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US Senate strikes deal aimed at ending record-long government shutdown

An agreement has been reached to advance a deal aimed at ending the longest US government shutdown ever recorded.

A procedural vote held on Sunday night saw senators advance a House-approved bill, which will be amended to fund the government until 30 January.

Millions of American lives have been disrupted since the shutdown took effect on 1 October, when all non-essential parts of government were frozen as it ran out of money.

The shutdown, which was the first in almost seven years, was triggered by politicians failing to pass new funding bills amid a stand-off between the Democrats and Republicans over healthcare spending.

Read more:
US government shutdown: What does it mean?

If the Senate passes the amended measure, it still needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and sent to US President Donald Trump for sign off.

The vote to advance the bill passed by a 60-40 margin, the minimum needed to overcome a Senate filibuster – a procedural tool that empowers the minority party to delay or block a piece of legislation they oppose.

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“It looks like we’re getting very close to the shutdown ending,” Mr Trump told reporters at the White House prior to the vote.

A handful of Democrats who rebuffed their party’s leadership teamed up with Republicans to strike the agreement, which included plans for a vote in December on extending subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.

The bill would prohibit federal agencies from firing employees until 30 January, a win for federal worker unions and their allies.

It comes as at least 300,000 employees are expected to leave the government by the end of this year due to Mr Trump’s downsizing effort.

What is a government shutdown?

A shutdown of the federal government means that all non-essential functions of government are frozen.

This will affect everything from social security to air travel to national park access.

Federal agencies are dependent on funding being approved by Congress to allow the president to sign budget legislation for the fiscal year ahead.

If they can’t approve funding (because of political differences – and America is of course bitterly divided) then those agencies are forced to shut down.

This means that workers cannot go to work and are not paid.

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Trump pardons Giuliani and allies over bid to overturn 2020 election

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Trump pardons Giuliani and allies over bid to overturn 2020 election

Donald Trump has pardoned his former personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, and others accused of trying to overturn the result of the 2020 election.

The president’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows was also pardoned, alongside conservative attorneys Sidney Powell and John Eastman, a Justice Department official revealed.

Ed Martin, the governments pardon attorney, posted a signed proclamation of the “full, complete, and unconditional” pardon on social media.

The pardon explicitly does not extend to Mr Trump, according to the proclamation.

Presidential pardons only apply to federal crimes, and none of those pardoned were charged in federal cases.

But pardons can be pre-emptive, taking effect before legal proceedings have started.

Mr Trump has long disputed the results of the 2020 presidential race, which saw Joe Biden elected president.

Lawyer John Eastman and Rudy Giuliani on 6 January 2021. Pic: Reuters
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Lawyer John Eastman and Rudy Giuliani on 6 January 2021. Pic: Reuters

But the move underscores President Donald Trump’s continued efforts to promote the idea that the 2020 election was stolen from him even though courts around the country and U.S. officials found no evidence of fraud that could have affected the outcome.

Mr Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, was prominent among those resisting the result, making multiple false fraud allegations in a bid to overturn the outcome.

Read more:
Rudy Giuliani rushed to hospital after car crash
Trump to award Rudy Giuliani Presidential Medal of Freedom

Among them were claims about rigged voting machines, polling place fraud, and an international communist conspiracy.

He famously broadcast his claims in a press conference at the premises of Four Seasons Total Landscaping, a small gardening business in Philadelphia, just days after the vote.

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Trump campaign lawyer Rudy Giuliani disputes the legitimacy of the US electoral process in Philadelphia.

Sidney Powell, former Trump attorney, speaks in Georgia, 2 December 2020. Pic: AP
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Sidney Powell, former Trump attorney, speaks in Georgia, 2 December 2020. Pic: AP

Mr Giuliani, along with Ms Powell and Mr Eastman, are thought to be among the unindicted co-conspirators alluded to in the 2020 federal case of United States of America v. Donald J. Trump.

However they were not named in the original indictment.

Their pardon states that this proclamation would end “a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 Presidential Election and continues the process of national reconciliation”.

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The document, which Mr Martin posted on X, lists the names of the pardoned over several pages.

It comes after Trump last week pardoned baseball star Darryl Strawberry, who previously appeared on Trump’s Celebrity Apprentice.

The White House said the former outfielder had “served time and paid back taxes” after pleading guilty to tax evasion.

The White House did not immediately respond to an email from the Press Association seeking comment.

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Donald Trump’s reacted to the BBC resignations on Truth Social – and didn’t hold back

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Donald Trump's reacted to the BBC resignations on Truth Social - and didn't hold back

What did the BBC do to anger Donald Trump? And what has he said about the resignations?

It didn’t take long for the White House to react – and that’s unsurprising given that the resignations were driven, on the face of it at least, by the BBC’s splicing together of that Trump speech from January 2021.

It was clear on Friday that the White House was keen to weigh into the BBC row, with the White House press secretary using an interview with The Daily Telegraph to slam the BBC.

“This purposefully dishonest, selectively edited clip by the BBC is further evidence that they are total, 100% fake news that should no longer be worth the time on the television screens of the great people of the United Kingdom,” Karoline Leavitt told the newspaper.

Donald Trump during the speech on January 6, 2021. AP file pic
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Donald Trump during the speech on January 6, 2021. AP file pic

After last night’s resignations, Mr Trump posted a lengthy statement on Truth Social.

“The TOP people in the BBC, including TIM DAVIE, the BOSS, are all quitting/FIRED, because they were caught “doctoring” my very good (PERFECT!) speech of January 6th,” he wrote.

“Thank you to The Telegraph for exposing these Corrupt ‘Journalists.’ These are very dishonest people who tried to step on the scales of a Presidential Election. On top of everything else, they are from a Foreign Country, one that many consider our Number One Ally. What a terrible thing for Democracy!”

It was the Telegraph that leaked the internal memo last week in which it was revealed that a BBC Panorama report – aired just before the election last year – had spliced together two parts of a long Trump speech which he made on 6 January 2021.

That was the day of the storming of the Capitol building in Washington by Trump supporters who believed the 2020 election had been stolen by Joe Biden.

Mr Trump gave a speech that day. In a Panorama report broadcast just before the US election last year, the BBC aired a clip from the speech.

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Why ‘Teflon Tim’ resigned from BBC

The following is the transcript of that clip.

“We’re gonna walk down to the Capitol and I’ll be with you and we fight. We fight like hell and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not gonna have a country anymore.”

The clip was presented as one sentence – one thought. However, it was actually two distinct parts of the speech spliced together, reordered and covered with pictures of the crowd to hide the join – known as the edit point or cut.

Had the Panorama production team not edited the clip ,this is what viewers would have heard. The sections used by Panorama are in bold for clarity.

“After this, we’re going to walk down – and I’ll be there with you – we’re gonna walk down, we’re gonna walk down anyone you want, but I think right here, we’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave congressmen and women, and we probably not gonna be cheering so much for some of them. Because you’re never going to take back our country with weakness you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing, and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated. I know that everyone will soon be marching down to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”

The “fight like hell” line came about an hour later – right at the end of the speech. Here it is in full. Again, the section used by Panorama are in bold for clarity.

“And again, most people would stand there at 9 o’clock in the evening and say I want to thank you very much, and they go off to some other life. But I said something’s wrong here, something is really wrong, can’t have happened. And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore. Our exciting adventures and boldest endeavours have not yet begun. My fellow Americans, for our movement, for our children, and for our beloved country. And I say this despite all that’s happened. The best is yet to come. So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I love Pennsylvania Avenue. And we’re going to the Capitol. The Democrats are hopeless, they never vote for anything. Not even one vote. But we’re going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones because the strong ones don’t need any of our help. We’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country. So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I want to thank you all. God bless you and God Bless America.”

The riot at the Capitol building unfolded that afternoon.

Read more:
‘Teflon Tim’ has finally come unstuck
In full: The BBC resignation letters

Past controversies faced by Tim Davie

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2021: How chaos unfolded at the US Capitol

The president and his team have always claimed the “fight like hell” comment was purely rhetorical, and they have dismissed accusations that Mr Trump encouraged the unrest.

Trump’s alleged role in the unrest and his broader efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election were the subject of a federal criminal case. The president was indicted on four felony counts.

The case was dismissed by federal prosecutors following his 2024 election victory because of a long-standing policy that prohibits the prosecution of sitting presidents.

But in a final report released last January, federal prosecutor Jack Smith said he believed there was enough evidence to convict Mr Trump in a trial had it happened.

There is a legitimate and enduring debate over Mr Trump’s role in the events of January 6th. But that does not in any way explain or excuse BBC’s decision to splice together and reorder two distinct parts of the president’s speech.

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