
MLB most exciting player bracket: Who is baseball’s most electrifying star?
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adminMajor League Baseball is packed with electrifying players. Whether you prefer five-star talents, powerful sluggers or pitchers throwing triple-digit heat, there are stars bringing excitement to this 2024 MLB season on a daily basis.
But who is the most exciting player in baseball this year? To find out, we put together a 32-player bracket and asked our MLB experts to vote for a champion.
The process was simple: We chose the most exciting player from each of the 30 teams (by virtue of having the best record in their leagues at the time of our voting, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers each got two entries), seeded them by the standings and let our voters decide each matchup.
The result? One superstar who can proudly wear the crown as MLB’s Mr. Excitement.
Jump to: 1st round | 2nd round | 3rd round | Final Four | Championship
First round
Why Judge is here: Judge is the closest player we’ve seen to Barry Bonds since, well, Barry Bonds. His numbers are staggering. His power is immense. His plate discipline is remarkable. Every at-bat is a must-watch. What’s more exciting than that?
Why Crochet is here: The White Sox might be the worst team in MLB history, but Crochet morphing from full-time reliever to All-Star starter has at least been one exciting development on the South Side in 2024.
Winner: Judge
Why Duran is here: Duran is a triple waiting to happen whenever he comes to the plate. This is especially true given the deep center field and unique angles at Fenway Park. His ability to defend that space, whether in center or the corner, doesn’t hurt, either.
Why Skubal is here: The state of starting pitching being what it is, when a pitcher develops into an old-school ace, you have to tune in. Skubal has become the complete package for the Tigers, the kind of pitcher whose turn in the rotation you circle on the calendar when figuring out which game to attend.
Winner: Skubal
Why Ramirez is here: He has provided nearly a decade of consistent quality. He hits for power, steals bases, never strikes out and plays with a crackling sort of energy that makes him feel like he’s far bigger than 5-foot-9.
Why Seager is here: Seager’s version of excitement stems from his excellence. It’s not flashy. It’s not aggressive. He’s just the guy who hits massive home runs in vital moments and goes out and wins World Series MVP trophies. Plural.
Winner: Ramirez
Why Lewis is here: We’re talking about the real-life Roy Hobbs here. No matter how grueling the injury, or how much time he misses, Lewis keeps magic in his bat, consistently providing elite-level production with an absurd knack for belting grand slams. He does it all with a radiant smile, too.
Why Guerrero is here: Blue Jays manager John Schneider calls Guerrero a line-drive hitter with power, a term that has evolved into a cliché but in this case qualifies as the most accurate description. Few players, if any, hit baseballs harder and more frequently.
Winner: Guerrero
Why Soto is here: There might not be a better showman in all of New York City than Juan Soto. He blasts home runs to all fields. He takes balls out of the strike zone with shuffles. He stares pitchers down. He trash-talks catchers. He’s pure entertainment.
Why Joyce is here: Because he throws baseballs very, very hard. Velocity has skyrocketed over the past decade, and Joyce is pushing the boundary to another level. 106 mph? Ridiculous — and exciting.
Winner: Soto
Why Witt is here: Everything Witt does is explosive, whether it’s on the bases, at the plate or in the field. Perhaps more than any player in the majors right now, you walk away from every game Witt plays knowing you have watched someone with transcendent talent and emergent skill.
Why Kirby is here: The major leagues are filled with pitchers who wow you with raw stuff, but Kirby does it with precision. In this day and age, that makes him special.
Winner: Witt
Why Henderson is here: Henderson does it all. He combines his raw power (36 HRs) and speed (18 SBs) with deft hands while playing the most important position on the diamond outside of pitcher. He has a Rookie of the Year Award and a Silver Slugger Award, and he was an All-Star this year for a reason.
Why Miller is here: With well more than 400 pitches thrown at or over 100 mph this season, it’s not hard to understand why Miller is on this list. On average, nearly every other pitch out of his hand hits the century mark.
Winner: Henderson
Why Alvarez is here: Put it this way: He might be the guy you most want up there in a big moment, especially in the postseason. And if you’re rooting against the Astros, he’s the guy you don’t want up there in a big moment. With his ability to hit for power and average and avoid strikeouts, sometimes he feels impossible to get out, and he’s capable of hitting the ball 450 feet any time he swings the bat.
Why Caminero is here: This is as much about future potential as present ability, but the game’s top prospect is already flashing the skills that should soon make him one of the game’s top hitters, spraying rocket-propelled line drives all over the field.
Winner: Alvarez
Why Ohtani is here: Ohtani has unmatched raw power and has evolved into a complete hitter. He boasts elite speed and is using it to steal bases more frequently than ever. And next year, he’ll resume reeling off triple-digit fastballs and mind-bending splitters from the pitcher’s mound. What more do you want? A cute dog, perhaps? He’s got that, too.
Why Doyle is here: Hit the ball practically anywhere in center field, and Doyle will catch it. Try to take an extra base, and there’s a pretty good chance Doyle will throw you out. If you want outfield defense, it doesn’t get any better. Oh, and he can hit too.
Winner: Ohtani
Why Lindor is here: Lindor is a dynamic leadoff hitter, elite shortstop, first-rate base stealer and consummate leader with a magnetic personality. Want to see exciting? Head on over to Citi Field, watch him impact games in every way, and listen to those MVP chants showering Lindor every night.
Why Crow-Armstrong is here: We all knew Crow-Armstrong had the tools to play an excellent center field and wreak havoc on the bases. The question was whether he could hit at the major league level. He’s proving he can, and that has been a big deal on the North Side.
Winner: Lindor
Why Chourio is here: Because he is doing the sorts of things in his rookie season done by only the very best players in MLB. The last 20-year-old as good as Chourio? Fernando Tatis Jr.
Why Skenes is here: In a game that has deemphasized starting pitching to the point that the ace is an endangered species, Skenes is a hulking, sneering strikeout machine with an unmatched ability to create an undeniable buzz around his starts.
Winner: Skenes
Why Merrill is here: Merrill waltzed into a clubhouse filled with exciting players and snatched the bid with a propensity for the dramatic. He’s still only 21, but he is already the guy you want up in clutch moments.
Why De La Cruz is here: He hits tape-measure home runs. He leads MLB in stolen bases. He throws 100 mph across the diamond. His entire tool set is a starter kit for excitement.
Winner: De La Cruz
Why Betts is here: Betts can do just about anything. He can bowl. He can ball. He can podcast. More specific to this exercise, though: He can throw you out from right field or rob you of a hit at shortstop. He can work a count and spray a base hit the other way or he can take you deep on the first pitch. And whatever he does, he’ll look so cool doing it, it seems unfair.
Why Edwards is here: Edwards was called back up by the Marlins in early July and hasn’t stopped hitting. He has elements of Luis Arraez‘s bat-to-ball skills but with significantly more speed. And he has been playing a pretty decent shortstop, too.
Winner: Betts
Why Sale is here: Ronald Acuna Jr. might have won this bracket a year ago, but he’s injured, so we turn to Sale and his funky sidearm delivery that earned him the nickname “The Condor” as Atlanta’s rep. He’s also back to being one of the best starters in the majors, with a chance to win the NL pitching Triple Crown (leading in wins, ERA and strikeouts).
Why Winn is here: With potential future Hall of Famers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado both on the downslide, Winn feels like the guy to represent the Cardinals. Hey, everybody loves rookies, and Winn’s flashy defense and rocket arm at shortstop make him a regular on highlight reels.
Winner: Sale
Why Harper is here: As beloved as any player is by his hometown fans, Harper’s at-bats remain must-watch TV, and when he hits one out in Philly, there are few moments in the sport as electrifying. Go watch his series-clinching home run against the Padres in the 2022 NLCS.
Why Wood is here: In his short time in the majors, Wood has established himself as an intimidating presence at the plate with top-end exit velocity numbers. At 6-7, 234 pounds, he hasn’t even filled out yet. Dream on that power potential, Nationals fans.
Winner: Harper
Why Carroll is here: The reigning Rookie of the Year has shown he can do everything: He had 25 home runs, hit a league-leading 10 triples and stole 54 bases in his first season, and he is in double digits in all three categories again this year.
Why Snell is here: Snell was having a ho-hum season after winning the 2023 NL Cy Young Award, but after coming off the injured list in July, he showed up in a big way. A no-hitter last month wowed the baseball world, as he has a 1.30 ERA since healing up from a groin ailment. His second-most-thrown pitch — his curveball — has produced a .100 batting average against and is one big reason he’s on this list.
Winner: Carroll
Second round
Aaron Judge vs. Tarik Skubal
Skubal’s dominance on the mound pushed him past Duran in our closest opening-round matchup, but the AL Cy Young favorite was no match for the AL MVP favorite.
Winner: Judge
Aaron Judge (7)
Opponent: Detroit Tigers
Pitcher: Tarik Skubal
Date: 5/5/24Exit Velocity: 109.3mph
Distance: 399ft
Launch Angle: 29° pic.twitter.com/IluxeXX6I2— Yankees Home Runs (@NYY_HR) May 5, 2024
Jose Ramirez vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Five-tool player vs. power-packed slugger is a question our voters had to answer often in our voting. Ramirez’s all-around talent kept this one close, but the Blue Jays’ biggest bat survived.
Winner: Guerrero
Juan Soto vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
The bracket gave us one of the most intriguing early AL showdowns. Soto’s brilliance at the plate couldn’t sway our voters against Kansas City’s five-tool superstar.
Winner: Witt
Gunnar Henderson vs. Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is the current-day Big Papi, and that was just enough to get him past Baltimore’s do-everything shortstop in our closest matchup of the second round.
Winner: Alvarez
Shohei Ohtani vs. Francisco Lindor
Who has the edge in a meeting of the two NL MVP favorites? When it comes to excitement, Ohtani’s 50/50 quest proved to be the difference.
Winner: Ohtani
SHOHEI JUST HIT A HOMER 473 FEET. pic.twitter.com/H8ceT0H0Yx
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 22, 2024
Paul Skenes vs. Elly De La Cruz
Expect to see these two compete in our bracket for years to come, but even the game’s most exciting young starting pitcher couldn’t stop De La Cruz here.
Winner: De La Cruz
Mookie Betts vs. Chris Sale
Sale had some supporters in a battle of former Red Sox teammates. Betts had more.
Winner: Betts
Bryce Harper vs. Corbin Carroll
Carroll’s all-around ability garnered him multiple votes, but not enough to take down the face of the Phillies.
Winner: Harper
Third round
Aaron Judge vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The battle of AL East sluggers belonged to Judge, in unanimous fashion.
Winner: Judge
Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Yordan Alvarez
Two AL semifinal matchups, two unanimous outcomes. Many of our voters circled Witt vs. Judge when our bracket was released — and both players have cruised through to make that AL final a reality.
Winner: Witt
Shohei Ohtani vs. Elly De La Cruz
The excitement De La Cruz brings at shortstop was just enough to get him past the Dodgers’ DH (for 2024) — but this result could look a lot different when Ohtani returns to the mound next season.
Winner: De La Cruz
Here’s my conversation with Cincinnati Reds star Elly De La Cruz, who gave the best answer to a question I’ve heard in a long time.
Me: “Who’s the most exciting player in baseball?”
Elly: “You’re sitting right in front of him.” pic.twitter.com/CL4KeexdxJ
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 5, 2024
Mookie Betts vs. Bryce Harper
Betts’ ability to do a little bit of everything, including handle multiple positions, swayed our voters in a meeting of former MVPs.
Winner: Betts
Final four
Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
An AL championship matchup so close we had to turn to our emergency tiebreaking panel, which opted for Witt’s dynamic skill set over Judge’s unmatched power.
Winner: Witt
Mookie Betts vs. Elly De La Cruz
The NL final pitted two players who can wow at the plate, on the basepaths and in the field — but only one does it while standing 6-5 at shortstop.
Winner: De La Cruz
Championship
Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Elly De La Cruz
De La Cruz can do everything. Witt can do everything. But Witt’s ability to do it all while hitting .333 put our 2024 MLB Mr. Excitement over the top, according to our voters.
Winner: Witt
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Sports
Why the 2025-26 season is different for ‘perfect ambassador for the game’ Sidney Crosby
Published
2 hours agoon
October 7, 2025By
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Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
Sports
Panthers receive Cup rings, prep for banner night
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2 hours agoon
October 7, 2025By
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Associated Press
Oct 6, 2025, 06:51 PM ET
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Seth Jones had waited most of his life to get a Stanley Cup ring. And then, he had to wait even longer before he could see it.
The Florida Panthers handed out the rings from their second consecutive title Monday, and Jones was the first person on the long list of players, coaches and staff who got the prized pieces of jewelry during the ceremony.
But the Panthers have a rule: Nobody opens the box until everybody can open the box together. So, Jones — who joined the team midway through last season — had to wait … and wait … and wait … before he and everyone else got to see the new shiny bauble.
“Awesome,” Jones said. “It’s a collection piece for the rest of my life.”
Among the highlights of the ring: a play on the speeches that Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett gave at the Stanley Cup parade, where they gleefully pointed out that they apologize to no one for the Panthers being the Panthers. That phrasing is etched on the inside of the ring, which has more than 250 diamonds and rubies and is created out of white and yellow gold.
A ring fit for Back-to-Back Champions 💍 pic.twitter.com/u8Y6fS9Y2f
— Florida Panthers (@FlaPanthers) October 6, 2025
On the sides of the players’ rings: their name and number on one side, along with the team logo and “back to back champions” on the other.
The Panthers did the ceremony in private, with the players all in dark suits and red ties. The celebration for fans comes Tuesday, when the team will raise the banner before its opener at home against the Chicago Blackhawks.
The ownership group — Vincent and Teresa Viola and their families — presented their rings to one another, and then the word finally came to open the boxes.
“I never believed that owning a sports team could be as invigorating, as heart-touching, that you’d care about the players when they get hurt,” said Teresa Viola, the wife of team owner Vincent Viola. “You want to run down there like a mom and just go, ‘My goodness, are you OK?’ This team has shown me the spirit of togetherness, family, everything that I hoped it would be.”
All the trophies from last season were on a table near the stage. There were the two won by captain Aleksander Barkov — the Selke Trophy as the NHL’s best defensive forward and the King Clancy in recognition of his leadership and humanitarian work on and off the ice. There was the Conn Smythe Trophy, the one Bennett got as MVP of the playoffs. There was the Prince of Wales Trophy, which the Panthers have won in each of the past three seasons as Eastern Conference champions.
And, of course, there was the Stanley Cup. The Panthers have taken it everywhere for the better part of the past 3½ months — hospitals, fire houses, fishing trips, even eaten meatballs out of the thing — and now start the quest toward trying to win it again.
The rings have been handed out. The banner goes up Tuesday. There will be reminders along the way, such as taking a ring to the Hockey Hall of Fame, the Stanley Cup Final rematches with Edmonton and rematches of playoff matchups. But the Panthers know it’s time to turn the page to what awaits.
“Dealing with that and not living in the past is very important,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “But also, we want to make sure that we’re not mandating that. It’s OK to enjoy tonight. And it’s OK when we have to do other things that bring us back. We’re just not having a reunion every day that we come to the rink.”
Sports
CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in, who’s out, who has work to do in each league
Published
3 hours agoon
October 7, 2025By
admin
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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