Slowly we are getting a better picture of the events at Donald Trump’s golf club in Palm Beach. But many questions remain unanswered. 

There are unknowns about the investigation, unknowns about how all this impacts a US election that’s less than 50 days away and unknowns about where the dangerous rhetoric leads.

On the investigation – we know now that it involves FBI agents working in multiple locations from Palm Beach to Hawaii and North Carolina, and with forensic analysis of the suspect’s electronic devices at the FBI offices in Quantico, Virginia.

It’s a multi-agency operation, led by the FBI, but with input from the local sheriff’s office, the state attorney’s office and the US Secret Service.

Their work is in the very initial stages, we were told. The firearms charges against Ryan Routh are likely to be followed by further charges soon.

It’s been revealed that he didn’t fire any shots himself when he was engaged by a Secret Service agent who was a hole ahead of Donald Trump on the course.

Despite this, it’s likely he will still be charged with attempted assassination.

His GoPro camera, two bags, and his weapon are all being forensically examined, as is his phone.

Data from that phone allowed investigators to conclude that he had been in the golf course area for 12 hours before the agent spotted him.

The Secret Service revealed that Mr Trump’s Sunday round of golf was an “off the record movement”. It was not part of his planned schedule.

Lone gunman or part of conspiracy?

This prompts the question of how Routh knew he would be there? Was it a punt by the alleged assassin?

Was he acting alone or part of a wider conspiracy? This question was raised by the sheriff: “If he’s the lone gunman, President Trump is that much safer because we have him,” he said. “But if he’s part of a conspiracy, then this whole thing really takes on a very ominous tone.”

Interviews with family in North Carolina may help investigators answer this key question as will analysis of his various communications devices – both active and dormant ones.

His previous convictions and his obsessive interest in the Ukraine War and China-Taiwan tensions hint at a complex character profile.

His social media footprint is broad and suggests he voted for Trump in 2016 but then his politics shifted to the left.
He certainly seems much more politically driven than the young man who shot at Mr Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania in July.

That shooting, in which a bullet brushed his ear, has been likened to an American school shooting in its modus operandi, with investigators unable to find any particular ideology motivating the gunman.

Overstretched and under-resourced

It was clear that officials wanted to press home some points in their news conference.

First – they believe their agents did a good job on Sunday. With the funding and remit they have, the operation was described by them as “textbook”.

Second – the Secret Service director said he needed more funding. He pressed Congress to understand the huge task his agents have in a threat environment he described as “hyper dynamic”. That phrase jumped out at me.

Also striking was the praise the Secret Service director heaped on Biden’s secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, a man so often vilified by Donald Trump and his surrogates.

On that point, it’s notable that the investigation is being led by the FBI, an agency Mr Trump has so often said is part of the deep state. Yet he has expressed confidence and gratitude in all the agencies after Sunday.

Read more:
What we know about Ryan Routh
Biden says Secret Service needs more help
Question of how second assassination attempt may affect election is urgent

It was striking there was not more on whether he was acting alone or not. My sense is that they think he was. But they still need to comb his background to be sure.

It was interesting that they said he tried to “recruit Afghan soldiers to fight for Ukraine”.

One line of inquiry is likely to focus on the extent to which his desire to see Ukraine win its war aligns with a belief that Donald Trump would capitulate to Russia over Ukraine.

They will want to examine any possibility that he recruited accomplices to help in eliminating Mr Trump as part of his pro-Ukraine fight.

Another big unknown is the politics; the extent to which this incident fuels Mr Trump’s support.

The last assassination attempt propelled him into his party convention with a boost in the polls. It was only upended by the replacement of his opponent Joe Biden with Kamala Harris.

My sense here is that it will not have a huge impact this time. But we’ll see.

Close to a dangerous tipping point

The singular biggest challenge now is keeping the former president and his opponent, the vice-president, safe.

Mr Trump’s language for many years has been deeply divisive.

Just this past week, baseless claims about pet-eating Haitian migrants in Springfield have led to violent threats, far-right marches and bomb scares in the small Ohio town.

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Now Mr Trump is blaming the Democrats – and their assertion he is a threat to democracy – for the attacks against him.

On social media he wrote: “Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying, and it will only get worse!”

The Democrats see their “threat to democracy” warning as an accurate and justified political attack against a candidate who incited the storming of the Capitol on 6 January 2021 and who refused to concede the 2020 election.

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, sees it differently.

“If you tell the American people that this person is the end of democracy… some crazy person is going to take matters into their own hands,” he said on Monday night.

He continued: “You know the big difference between conservatives and liberals? No one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in last couple of months. And two people have tried to kill Donald Trump last couple months. That’s pretty strong evidence the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and cut this crap out.”

It feels like we are close to a dangerous tipping point. These are tense times in America.