China would love a domestic Nvidia rival — but that’s proving quite the challenge
The flags of China and the USA are being displayed on a smartphone, with an NVIDIA chip visible in the background.
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Chinese companies are ramping up efforts to produce a viable alternative to Nvidia’s chips that power artificial intelligence as Beijing continues its efforts to wean itself off American technology.
U.S. sanctions slapped on China over the past few years, along with Nvidia‘s dominance in the space, have provided big challenges for Bejing’s efforts, at least in the short term, analysts told CNBC.
Nvidia’s well-documented boom has been driven by large cloud computing players buying its server products which contain its graphics processing units, or GPUs. These chips are enabling companies, such as ChatGPT maker OpenAI, to train their huge AI models on massive amounts of data.
These AI models are fundamental to applications like chatbots and other emerging AI applications.
The U.S. government has restricted the export of Nvidia’s most advanced chips to China since 2022, with restrictions tightening last year.
Such semiconductors are key to China’s ambitions to become a leading AI player.
CNBC spoke to analysts who identified some of China’s leading contenders that are looking to challenge Nvidia, including technology giants Huawei, Alibaba and Baidu and startups such as Biren Technology and Enflame.
The overarching view is that they are lagging behind Nvidia at this point.
“These companies have made notable progress in developing AI chips tailored to specific applications (ASICs),” Wei Sun, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.
“However, competing with Nvidia still presents substantial challenges in technological gaps, especially in general-purpose GPU. Matching Nvidia in short-term is unlikely.”
China’s key challenges
Chinese firms have a “lack of technology expertise”, according to Sun, highlighting one of the challenges.
However, it’s the U.S. sanctions and their knock-on effects that pose the biggest roadblocks to China’s ambitions.
Some of China’s leading Nvidia challengers have been placed on the U.S. Entity List, a blacklist which restricts their access to American technology. Meanwhile, a number of U.S. curbs have restricted key AI-related semiconductors and machinery from being exported to China.
China’s GPU players all design chips and rely on a manufacturing company to produce their chips. For a while, this would have been Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. But U.S. restrictions mean many of these firms cannot access the chips made by TSMC.
They therefore have to turn to SMIC, China’s biggest chipmaker, whose technology remains generations behind TSMC. Part of the reason why it’s lagging behind, is because Washington has restricted SMIC’s access to a key piece of machinery from Dutch firm ASML, which is required to manufacture the most advance chips.
Meanwhile, Huawei has been pushing development of more advanced chips for its smartphones and AI chips, which is taking up capacity at SMIC, according to Paul Triolo, a partner at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge.
“The key bottleneck will be domestic foundry leader SMIC, which will have a complex problem of dividing limited resources for its advanced node production between Huawei, which is taking up the lion’s share currently, the GPU startups, and many other Chinese design firms which have been or may be cutoff from using global foundry leader TSMC to manufacture their advanced designs,” Triolo told CNBC.
Nvidia is more than just GPUs
Nvidia has found success due to its advanced semiconductors, but also with its CUDA software platform that allows developers to create applications to run on the U.S. chipmaker’s hardware. This has led to the development of a so-called ecosystem around Nvidia’s products that others might find hard to replicate.
“This is the key, it is not just about the hardware, but about the overall ecosystem, tools for developers, and the ability to continue to evolve this ecosystem going forward as the technology advances,” Triolo said.
Huawei leading the pack
Triolo identified Huawei as one of the leaders in China with its Ascend series of data center processors.
The firm’s current generation of chip is called the Ascend 910B, and the company is gearing up to launch the Ascend 910C, which could be on par with Nvidia’s H100 product, according to a Wall Street Journal report in August.
In its annual report earlier this year, Nvidia explicitly identified Huawei, among other companies, as a competitor in areas such as chips, software for AI and networking products.
In the area of software and building a developer community, Huawei “holds lots of advantages,” Triolo said. But it faces similar challenges to the rest of the industry in trying to compete with Nvidia.
“The GPU software support ecosystem is much more entrenched around Nvidia and to a lesser degree AMD, and Huawei faces major challenges, both in producing sufficient quantities of advanced GPUs such as part of the Ascend 910C, and continuing to innovate and improve the performance of the hardware, given U.S. export controls that are limiting the ability of SMIC to produce advanced semiconductors,” Triolo said.
Chip IPOs ahead?
The challenges facing China’s Nvidia competitors have been evident over the past two years. In 2022, Biren Technology carried out a round of layoffs, followed by Moore Threads the year after, with both companies blaming U.S. sanctions.
But startups are still holding out hope, looking to raise money to fund their goals. Bloomberg reported last week that Enflame and Biren are both looking to go public to raise money.
“Biren and the other GPU startups are staffed with experienced industry personnel from Nvidia, AMD, and other leading western semiconductor companies, but they have the additional challenge of lacking the financial depth that Huawei has,” Triolo said.
“Hence both Biren and Enflame are seeking IPOs in Hong Kong, to raise funding for additional hiring and expansion.”
The stock market graphic of Zillow Group is displayed on a smartphone with the logo of Zillow in the background on Feb. 21, 2021.
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Zillow shares plunged more than 9% on Monday on worries that the online real estate platform could have a big new competitor: Google Search.
Google appears to be running tests on putting real estate sale listings into its search results. Over the weekend, real estate tech strategist Mike DelPrete published mobile phone screenshots of Google Search results showing real estate listings, which appeared to be powered by real estate data company “HouseCanary.”
The listings allowed users to view the full details of a property’s page, request a tour and contact an agent — similar to the functions offered on Zillow.com’s online marketplace portal. Google’s home searches appear to work only in select markets and on mobile devices as testing is underway.
The decline in Zillow signals investors are bracing for the eventual impact of Google’s foray into the real estate market. The stock was down at least 11% at one point during Monday’s session.
However, Wall Street analysts were quick to point out that Zillow’s exposure to organic search is fairly small, limiting potential downside at least in the near term as more details around Google’s product come to light.
Wells Fargo analyst Alec Brondolo, who has an equal weight rating on Zillow, said he would not “expect a meaningful financial impact from listings on Google shifting from organic to paid” — given that Zillow is not overly dependent on organic search results for traffic.
“The listings product appears similar to Google Hotel Metasearch results; introduction could increase traffic cost to Zillow, but disintermediation unlikely,” Brondolo said in a Monday note to clients. “In the hotel category, Google merchandises hotel rooms in search results as a metasearch ad product for OTAs. We would expect a similar approach in real estate, with Zillow, Homes.com, Realtor.com, etc. bidding for home listing ad units rather than Google attempting to monetize directly with an ad product sold to agents.”
Zillow stock over the past year.
But some analysts see Google’s testing as a longer-term headwind to Zillow and other online real estate portals.
Goldman Sachs’ Michael Ng wrote in a note to clients that he believes the search engine’s real estate listings, which he said are an advertising format for buy-side agents, directly compete with Zillow’s Premier Agent program by “facilitating lead generation” for agents from prospective buyers.
“While we don’t expect a direct near-term impact on Zillow’s business, given that most of Zillow’s traffic is direct (e.g., Zillow.com, StreetEasy.com, mobile apps) and Google’s new product is currently limited to select markets and mobile browsers, we view this development as a long-term risk for real estate portals like Zillow,” Ng, who remains neutral on Zillow, wrote in a note to clients.
Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer said that Google’s expansion into real estate could impact the number of consumers going to Zillow.com — which was 228 million in the third quarter — and therefore could take a hit on the company’s ability to monetize its platform. “The impact would likely take years to play out and would need to be rolled out across the US to meaningfully impact real estate portal traffic,” Helfstein said in a recent note, to be sure.
Zillow shares are down more than 8% year to date.
Neither Google nor Zillow responded immediately to CNBC’s request for comment.
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