The Caucasus Mountain range in Georgia is one of the great sights in the south of Europe. Towering peaks, higher than any in the Alps, rise up from green meadows and grassy hills covered in wildflowers. Winding roads thread through deep valleys, overlooked by ornate Orthodox churches and monasteries.
But when I visited recently, I found a sight of an unexpected kind. The roads here have become dominated by a very particular kind of traffic: enormous convoys of trucks, carrying all manner of goods towards Georgia’s northerly neighbour: Russia. When I travelled north towards the checkpoint of Lars – the only road into Russia – I encountered a long queue of trucks waiting to clear customs and pass across.
I had come here in search of an answer to a puzzle that’s been preoccupying me for some time. It began with a chart. This chart showed that after Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed by G7 nations, including the UK, the flows of certain goods to that country suddenly cratered, falling to zero. That went for the so-called “dual use goods” you could use to create a makeshift weapon or put into a drone, but also for the luxury goods banned from sale into Russia.
The theory back then was that by starving Russia’s war machine of the parts it needed and by starving senior Russian businesspeople and officials of the Western luxuries they coveted, European states could cause economic damage even if they weren’t directly at war with Vladimir Putin’s state.
But the data told a subtly different story. While exports of those goods to Russia certainly fell to zero, they suddenly rose sharply to a host of Russia’s neighbours. All of a sudden, Britain was sending drone equipment to Kyrgyzstan; all of a sudden, we were exporting luxury cars to Azerbaijan, in numbers we had never come anywhere close to before. Things got odder when you looked at Azerbaijan’s own export data, which showed a sudden spurt in its own luxury car exports (it does not manufacture luxury cars), to other countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Georgia and Kazakhstan.
This posed a bit of a mystery. While sanctions experts said they suspected these Caucasus states were almost certainly being used as a kind of conduit, to send sanctioned goods to Russia, the data trail went cold when those cars entered the Caucasus. When we first raised this earlier in the year, Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said: “UK vehicle exports to Azerbaijan – as to many countries globally – have increased due to a number of factors, not least a flourishing economy, new model launches and pent-up demand.”
The implication, in other words, was that most if not all the cars stayed in the Caucasus (which would be entirely legal) instead of crossing into Russia (which would not).
Image: A Porsche seen by Sky News near the border
Like the driveway of a Mayfair hotel
All of which is how I found myself in the Caucasus mountains recently to see for myself whether this story really stacked up. We had gone there following a tip-off. A colleague in Georgia had sent us a photo from the border checkpoint, where a set of informal car parks was filled with the kind of concentration of luxury cars you would normally only expect to see outside a Mayfair hotel, or in a country like Dubai. There were Mercedes, high-end Lexus, BMWs and, there among a large number of German cars, two Range Rovers.
So we travelled out to Georgia to find out whether there were really UK-made cars still travelling into Russia. Now in some respects, our focus on cars might seem odd: after all, there are far more egregious breaches of the sanctions regime. Our previous investigation found radar parts and electrical equipment have also been sent from the UK to the Caucasus and Central Asia following the imposition of sanctions.
Image: A Lamborghini and two Mercedes G-wagons
But the reason we were focused on cars is that while there’s no way of telling from the outside what’s inside a cargo truck or a shipping container, vehicles are far harder to move secretly. In short, if we could show that European, and for that matter British cars were being moved into Russia, then it would demonstrate visually, for the first time, how these sanctions are being broken.
We spent two days close to the border, watching the process as cars and other trucks were brought there, and then sent over into Russia. We spoke to numerous men engaged in the trade. What we discovered was a complex but finely-honed system designed to transport European cars into Russia.
Image: A Mercedes seen by Sky News
‘This car will go to Russia and will remain there’
One group of men is charged with bringing the cars to the border – sometimes from showrooms in the capital, Tbilisi, sometimes from the Black Sea ports of Poti or Batumi. Mostly they don’t know where the cars come from beforehand – whether directly from countries like the UK or via other Caucasus states like Azerbaijan.
Once they bring the cars to the border, they leave them there in a set of car parks where they sit for a few days until the necessary paperwork is completed. That paperwork is not without its own complications: after European states imposed sanctions, Georgia introduced its own bans on sending cars into Russia. However, there are numerous loopholes that enable you to bring the cars across nonetheless.
Image: A Porsche waits at the car park
One way is to have the cars registered and custom cleared in Armenia before they come up north to the Lars checkpoint in Russia. Sometimes those taking the cars into Russia are advised to say they are only being driven through Russia to Kyrgyzstan but, as one Russian YouTuber puts it: “Let’s be honest: everyone understands everything perfectly well – everyone from the people who will register you at the traffic police and the people at the Georgian border – that this car will go to Russia and will remain there.”
Either way, eventually these cars are issued with transit registration plates, after which they can be driven over the border. And since Georgians can travel visa-free into Russia, and vice versa, taking the cars across the border is simply a question of driving them there, leaving the car on the other side where it will be collected by another group of men, and then hitching a ride back into Georgia.
Image: Checkpoint at the Georgia-Russia border
Everyone wins – except the Ukrainians
We saw numerous cars being taken across the border in this way, and here’s the key thing about this system: first, no single person in the chain can easily be fingered for any crime – even though, when you put it all together, it certainly amounts to a contravention of sanctions law. Second, and just as importantly for our purposes, it means that the cars don’t show up in the customs data. From the point of view of a statistician, they simply arrive in Azerbaijan or Georgia and then they disappear.
This, we learnt, was only one of numerous routes sanctioned goods are taking into Russia, but such routes are, all told, a large part of the explanation for how Mr Putin is able to keep his regime equipped with the components it needs to wage war, and the luxuries needed to reward his cronies. The upshot is contrary to the promises when these sanctions were imposed: Russia’s economy remains strong, there are no shortages of essential and non-essential goods in Moscow and, along the way, Caucasus states like Georgia and Azerbaijan have seen an enormous economic boost from serving as an informal trade conduit. Everyone wins – except the Ukrainians.
Image: Traffic waiting to cross from Georgia into Russia
But while we saw this process carried out at the border for many German cars – Mercedes and Porsches were the most prevalent brands – we didn’t find the Range Rovers our contact had photographed a few days earlier. They were, presumably, already over the border.
So after a few days we headed south towards Tbilisi to talk to more people in the export trade. But just outside the Georgian capital, we suddenly spotted a convoy of trucks heading in the opposite direction. Among those trucks were two car carriers with what looked like brand new Range Rovers. We turned the car around and began to follow them up the mountain, realising that we were witnessing this shadow trade route in person.
Up until then there had been no clear filmed evidence that British cars are actually leaving the Caucasus for Russia. So we followed the car carriers as they travelled slowly up the mountain roads towards the border.
When we arrived at the border, the atmosphere in the car park had transformed. What had been a quiet place during the day was a hive of activity. Clearly this was peak time – it seemed that most of the car deliveries happened in the dead of night. Not only were there two Range Rovers, there were countless other luxury cars, including top of the range Mercedes G-Wagons and a Lamborghini Urus.
When day broke the next morning, we checked the VIN numbers on the Range Rovers – the numerical fingerprint displayed on the windscreen, allowing you to trace these vehicles. They showed that these cars were brand new, made in Solihull in 2024. A document visible on the windscreen of one of them showed the date of April 2024.
Image: Boxes inside one of the cars
No one is trying to hide what’s happening
Those dates were significant: we at Sky News had warned CAT logistics groups about the existence of this trade in March 2024. Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) and the SMMT had been aware of the risks posed by these vehicles ending up in the Caucasus before these cars had been manufactured. Yet here they still were, en route to Russia, joining the line to cross over the border.
A spokesperson for JLR said: “JLR stopped sales of vehicles to Russia and Belarus in February 2022. Sanctions compliance is a corporate priority, as well as an obligation for our third-party retail network.
“An ongoing investigation into these vehicles has confirmed they were not supplied by JLR to the Georgia market. They were supplied by JLR to retailers in countries that do not share a border with Russia and then in turn sold to customers in those countries, which are subject to similar sanctions and export controls as we are in the UK in relation to Russia.
Image: Makeshift car park full of luxury cars, including Range Rovers, near the border
“JLR, along with its retailer network, continues to adapt its compliance strategies to counter the efforts of third parties seeking to circumvent sanctions against Russia and Belarus.”
However, while UK carmakers and authorities insist they are doing everything they can to clamp down on these unofficial trade routes, perhaps the most startling takeaway from our investigation is that there on the ground in Georgia, no one is trying to hide what’s happening. Everyone knows these high-end European cars aren’t supposed to be going into Russia, yet they are passing over the border one by one, every day. Everyone knows what’s happening, but no one is doing anything to stop it.
And one has to presume much the same thing is happening with all types of goods, including those inside the bowels of the trucks lined up at the border. The passage of these cars is only the most visible evidence that the sanctions regime is not preventing expensive, important items travelling from Europe into Russia. For the time being, policymakers and businesses seem powerless or unwilling to prevent this murky trade.
Rachel Reeves has said she is determined to “defy” forecasts that suggest she will face a multibillion-pound black hole in next month’s budget.
Writing in The Guardian, the chancellor argued the “foundations of Britain’s economy remain strong” – and rejected claims the country is in a permanent state of decline.
Reports have suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points.
Image: Rachel Reeves. PA file pic
That means the Treasury will take in less tax than expected over the coming years – and this could leave a gap of up to £40bn in the country’s finances.
Ms Reeves wrote she would not “pre-empt” these forecasts, and her job “is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future”.
“I am determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts, but we defy them, as we already have this year. To do so means taking necessary choices today, including at the budget next month,” the chancellor added.
She also pointed to five interest rate cuts, three trade deals with major economies and wages outpacing inflation as evidence Labour has made progress since the election.
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4:17
Chancellor faces tough budget choices
Although her article didn’t address this, she admitted “our country and our economy continue to face challenges”.
Her opinion piece said: “The decisions I will take at the budget don’t come for free, and they are not easy – but they are the right, fair and necessary choices.”
Yesterday, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates reported that Ms Reeves is unlikely to raise the basic rates of income tax or national insurance, to avoid breaking a promise to protect “working people” in the budget.
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This, in theory, means those on higher salaries could be the ones to face a squeeze in the budget – with the Treasury stating that it does not comment on tax measures.
In other developments, some top economists have warned Ms Reeves that increasing income tax or reducing public spending is her only option for balancing the books.
Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies have cautioned the chancellor against opting to hike alternative taxes instead, telling The Independent this would “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.
Although such an approach would help the chancellor avoid breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge, it is feared a series of smaller changes would make the tax system “ever more complicated and less efficient”.
Roughly 14,000 corporate jobs are to go at tech giant Amazon, the company announced.
The impact on the 75,000-strong UK workforce is not immediately clear from the announcement, which said impacted people and teams would hear from leadership on Tuesday.
A loss of 30,000 jobs had been anticipated based on reporting from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.
Amazon workers’ union in the UK, GMB, had said, based on those numbers, that “it is almost inevitable that many UK workers will lose their jobs”.
“The fact that companies can accrue such astronomical profits to the point where its [founder, Jeff Bezos] can holiday in space and hire out entire cities for his vulgar wedding prior to casting aside loyal workers without a thought just underlines everything that’s wrong with a system that many feel is beyond repair,” the union said.
Why?
More on Amazon
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The growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has been blamed for the cuts.
In a message sent to staff, Amazon’s senior vice president of people experience and technology, Beth Galetti, alluded to the criticism that the company is cutting jobs while profiting £19.2bn in results published in July.
“Some may ask why we’re reducing roles when the company is performing well,” she wrote.
“What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before.”
Amazon is also continuing to unravel some of the hiring it made during the COVID-19 pandemic and has warned about reducing headcount and bureaucracy.
The largest ever cut of 18,000 Amazon roles was announced in January 2023 when the consumer retail part of the business, including Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go, were scaled back.
It plans to replace more than half a million jobs with robots, automating 75% of its operations, according to the New York Times.
What next?
Those who lose their job will be prioritised for openings within Amazon to help “as many people as possible” find new roles, she said.
Hiring will continue, despite the latest cull, in “key strategic areas” while the online retail behemoth finds additional places we can “remove layers, increase ownership, and realise efficiency gains”.
Amazon said it is “shifting resources to ensure we’re investing in our biggest bets and what matters most to our customers’ current and future needs”.
In the UK, GMB said, “We will be supporting our members across Amazon as they face this uncertain future.”
It is to announce financial results for the third quarter of this year on Thursday evening, UK time.
KitKats, Gaviscon, toothpaste, and even Freddo have all fallen victim to shrinkflation, consumer group Which? has found.
As families struggle with the cost of a trip to the supermarket, a survey of shoppers revealed how many products are getting smaller – while others are being downgraded with cheaper ingredients.
Among the examples are:
• Aquafresh complete care original toothpaste – from £1.30 for 100ml to £2 for 75ml at Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Ocado
• Gaviscon heartburn and indigestion liquid – from £14 for 600ml to £14 for 500ml at Sainsbury’s
• Sainsbury’s Scottish oats – from £1.25 for 1kg to £2.10 for 500g
• KitKat two-finger multipacks – from £3.60 for 21 bars to £5.50 for 18 bars at Ocado
• Quality Street tubs – from £6 for 600g to £7 for 550g at Morrisons
• Freddo multipacks – from £1.40 for five bars to £1.40 for four bars at Morrisons, Ocado and Tesco
Which? also received reports of popular treats missing key ingredients, as manufacturers seek to cut costs.
The amount of cocoa butter in white KitKats has fallen below 20%, meaning they can no longer actually be sold as white chocolate.
It comes after Penguin and Club bars lost their legal status as a chocolate biscuit, as they now contain more palm oil and shea oil than cocoa – as reported in the Sky News Money blog.
Which? retail editor Reena Sewraz called on supermarkets to be “more upfront” about price changes to help households “already under immense financial pressure” get better value.
While keeping track of the size and weight of products can be tricky, Which? has two top tips for detecting shrinkflation.
The first is to be wary of familiar products labelled as “new” – because the only thing that’s new may end up being the smaller size.
Meanwhile, the second is to pay attention to how much an item costs per 100g or 100ml, as this can be an easy way of finding out when prices change.
What have the companies said?
A spokeswoman for Mondelez International, which makes Cadbury products, said any change to product sizes are a “last resort”, but it’s facing “significantly higher input costs across our supply chain” – including for energy.
A Nestle spokesman said it was seeing “significant increases in the cost of coffee”, and some “adjustments” were occasionally needed “to maintain the same high quality and delicious taste that consumers know and love”.
“Retail pricing is always at the discretion of individual retailers,” they added.
A spokesman for the Food and Drink Federation also pointed to government policy, notably national insurance increases for employers and a new packaging tax.
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2:14
Is inflation reaching its peak?
Fresh food prices on the rise
The Which? report comes as latest figures showed fresh food costs 4.3% more than it did a year ago.
The increase in October, reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and market researchers NIQ, was up on the 4.1% year-on-year rise in September.
Overall food inflation was down slightly, though, to 3.7% from last month’s 4.2%.
There has also been a slowdown in overall shop price inflation, which the BRC said was down to “fierce competition among retailers” ahead of Black Friday sales.
The annual shopping extravaganza will this year arrive in the same week as the chancellor’s budget, which is set for Wednesday 26 November.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson called on Rachel Reeves to help “relieve some pressures” keeping prices high, with the national insurance rise in last year’s budget having “directly contributed to rising inflation”.
“Adding further taxes on retail businesses would inevitably keep inflation higher for longer,” Ms Dickinson warned.