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The Caucasus Mountain range in Georgia is one of the great sights in the south of Europe. Towering peaks, higher than any in the Alps, rise up from green meadows and grassy hills covered in wildflowers. Winding roads thread through deep valleys, overlooked by ornate Orthodox churches and monasteries.

But when I visited recently, I found a sight of an unexpected kind. The roads here have become dominated by a very particular kind of traffic: enormous convoys of trucks, carrying all manner of goods towards Georgia’s northerly neighbour: Russia. When I travelled north towards the checkpoint of Lars – the only road into Russia – I encountered a long queue of trucks waiting to clear customs and pass across.

I had come here in search of an answer to a puzzle that’s been preoccupying me for some time. It began with a chart. This chart showed that after Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed by G7 nations, including the UK, the flows of certain goods to that country suddenly cratered, falling to zero. That went for the so-called “dual use goods” you could use to create a makeshift weapon or put into a drone, but also for the luxury goods banned from sale into Russia.

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The theory back then was that by starving Russia’s war machine of the parts it needed and by starving senior Russian businesspeople and officials of the Western luxuries they coveted, European states could cause economic damage even if they weren’t directly at war with Vladimir Putin’s state.

But the data told a subtly different story. While exports of those goods to Russia certainly fell to zero, they suddenly rose sharply to a host of Russia’s neighbours. All of a sudden, Britain was sending drone equipment to Kyrgyzstan; all of a sudden, we were exporting luxury cars to Azerbaijan, in numbers we had never come anywhere close to before. Things got odder when you looked at Azerbaijan’s own export data, which showed a sudden spurt in its own luxury car exports (it does not manufacture luxury cars), to other countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Georgia and Kazakhstan.

This posed a bit of a mystery. While sanctions experts said they suspected these Caucasus states were almost certainly being used as a kind of conduit, to send sanctioned goods to Russia, the data trail went cold when those cars entered the Caucasus. When we first raised this earlier in the year, Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said: “UK vehicle exports to Azerbaijan – as to many countries globally – have increased due to a number of factors, not least a flourishing economy, new model launches and pent-up demand.”

The implication, in other words, was that most if not all the cars stayed in the Caucasus (which would be entirely legal) instead of crossing into Russia (which would not).

A Ferrari seen by Sky News near the border
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A Porsche seen by Sky News near the border

Like the driveway of a Mayfair hotel

All of which is how I found myself in the Caucasus mountains recently to see for myself whether this story really stacked up. We had gone there following a tip-off. A colleague in Georgia had sent us a photo from the border checkpoint, where a set of informal car parks was filled with the kind of concentration of luxury cars you would normally only expect to see outside a Mayfair hotel, or in a country like Dubai. There were Mercedes, high-end Lexus, BMWs and, there among a large number of German cars, two Range Rovers.

So we travelled out to Georgia to find out whether there were really UK-made cars still travelling into Russia. Now in some respects, our focus on cars might seem odd: after all, there are far more egregious breaches of the sanctions regime. Our previous investigation found radar parts and electrical equipment have also been sent from the UK to the Caucasus and Central Asia following the imposition of sanctions.

A Lamborghini and two Mercedes G-wagons
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A Lamborghini and two Mercedes G-wagons

But the reason we were focused on cars is that while there’s no way of telling from the outside what’s inside a cargo truck or a shipping container, vehicles are far harder to move secretly. In short, if we could show that European, and for that matter British cars were being moved into Russia, then it would demonstrate visually, for the first time, how these sanctions are being broken.

We spent two days close to the border, watching the process as cars and other trucks were brought there, and then sent over into Russia. We spoke to numerous men engaged in the trade. What we discovered was a complex but finely-honed system designed to transport European cars into Russia.

A Mercedes seen by Sky News near the Russian border
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A Mercedes seen by Sky News

‘This car will go to Russia and will remain there’

One group of men is charged with bringing the cars to the border – sometimes from showrooms in the capital, Tbilisi, sometimes from the Black Sea ports of Poti or Batumi. Mostly they don’t know where the cars come from beforehand – whether directly from countries like the UK or via other Caucasus states like Azerbaijan.

Once they bring the cars to the border, they leave them there in a set of car parks where they sit for a few days until the necessary paperwork is completed. That paperwork is not without its own complications: after European states imposed sanctions, Georgia introduced its own bans on sending cars into Russia. However, there are numerous loopholes that enable you to bring the cars across nonetheless.

A Porsche at an informal car park near the border
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A Porsche waits at the car park

One way is to have the cars registered and custom cleared in Armenia before they come up north to the Lars checkpoint in Russia. Sometimes those taking the cars into Russia are advised to say they are only being driven through Russia to Kyrgyzstan but, as one Russian YouTuber puts it: “Let’s be honest: everyone understands everything perfectly well – everyone from the people who will register you at the traffic police and the people at the Georgian border – that this car will go to Russia and will remain there.”

Either way, eventually these cars are issued with transit registration plates, after which they can be driven over the border. And since Georgians can travel visa-free into Russia, and vice versa, taking the cars across the border is simply a question of driving them there, leaving the car on the other side where it will be collected by another group of men, and then hitching a ride back into Georgia.

Checkpoint at the Georgian-Russian border
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Checkpoint at the Georgia-Russia border

Everyone wins – except the Ukrainians

We saw numerous cars being taken across the border in this way, and here’s the key thing about this system: first, no single person in the chain can easily be fingered for any crime – even though, when you put it all together, it certainly amounts to a contravention of sanctions law. Second, and just as importantly for our purposes, it means that the cars don’t show up in the customs data. From the point of view of a statistician, they simply arrive in Azerbaijan or Georgia and then they disappear.

This, we learnt, was only one of numerous routes sanctioned goods are taking into Russia, but such routes are, all told, a large part of the explanation for how Mr Putin is able to keep his regime equipped with the components it needs to wage war, and the luxuries needed to reward his cronies. The upshot is contrary to the promises when these sanctions were imposed: Russia’s economy remains strong, there are no shortages of essential and non-essential goods in Moscow and, along the way, Caucasus states like Georgia and Azerbaijan have seen an enormous economic boost from serving as an informal trade conduit. Everyone wins – except the Ukrainians.

Traffic waiting to cross from Georgia into Russia
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Traffic waiting to cross from Georgia into Russia

But while we saw this process carried out at the border for many German cars – Mercedes and Porsches were the most prevalent brands – we didn’t find the Range Rovers our contact had photographed a few days earlier. They were, presumably, already over the border.

So after a few days we headed south towards Tbilisi to talk to more people in the export trade. But just outside the Georgian capital, we suddenly spotted a convoy of trucks heading in the opposite direction. Among those trucks were two car carriers with what looked like brand new Range Rovers. We turned the car around and began to follow them up the mountain, realising that we were witnessing this shadow trade route in person.

Up until then there had been no clear filmed evidence that British cars are actually leaving the Caucasus for Russia. So we followed the car carriers as they travelled slowly up the mountain roads towards the border.

When we arrived at the border, the atmosphere in the car park had transformed. What had been a quiet place during the day was a hive of activity. Clearly this was peak time – it seemed that most of the car deliveries happened in the dead of night. Not only were there two Range Rovers, there were countless other luxury cars, including top of the range Mercedes G-Wagons and a Lamborghini Urus.

When day broke the next morning, we checked the VIN numbers on the Range Rovers – the numerical fingerprint displayed on the windscreen, allowing you to trace these vehicles. They showed that these cars were brand new, made in Solihull in 2024. A document visible on the windscreen of one of them showed the date of April 2024.

Boxes inside one of the cars
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Boxes inside one of the cars

No one is trying to hide what’s happening

Those dates were significant: we at Sky News had warned CAT logistics groups about the existence of this trade in March 2024. Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) and the SMMT had been aware of the risks posed by these vehicles ending up in the Caucasus before these cars had been manufactured. Yet here they still were, en route to Russia, joining the line to cross over the border.

A spokesperson for JLR said: “JLR stopped sales of vehicles to Russia and Belarus in February 2022. Sanctions compliance is a corporate priority, as well as an obligation for our third-party retail network.

“An ongoing investigation into these vehicles has confirmed they were not supplied by JLR to the Georgia market. They were supplied by JLR to retailers in countries that do not share a border with Russia and then in turn sold to customers in those countries, which are subject to similar sanctions and export controls as we are in the UK in relation to Russia.

Makeshift car park full of luxury cars near the border
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Makeshift car park full of luxury cars, including Range Rovers, near the border

“JLR, along with its retailer network, continues to adapt its compliance strategies to counter the efforts of third parties seeking to circumvent sanctions against Russia and Belarus.”

However, while UK carmakers and authorities insist they are doing everything they can to clamp down on these unofficial trade routes, perhaps the most startling takeaway from our investigation is that there on the ground in Georgia, no one is trying to hide what’s happening. Everyone knows these high-end European cars aren’t supposed to be going into Russia, yet they are passing over the border one by one, every day. Everyone knows what’s happening, but no one is doing anything to stop it.

And one has to presume much the same thing is happening with all types of goods, including those inside the bowels of the trucks lined up at the border. The passage of these cars is only the most visible evidence that the sanctions regime is not preventing expensive, important items travelling from Europe into Russia. For the time being, policymakers and businesses seem powerless or unwilling to prevent this murky trade.

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

Britain’s biggest high street bank is in talks to buy Curve, the digital wallet provider, amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.

Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group is in advanced discussions to acquire Curve for a price believed to be up to £120m.

City sources said this weekend that if the negotiations were successfully concluded, a deal could be announced by the end of September.

Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016.

Three years later, he told an interviewer: “In 10 years time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”

One insider said this weekend that Curve was being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.

If a mooted price range of £100m-£120m turns out to be accurate, that would represent a lower valuation than the £133m Curve raised in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.

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That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.

It was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.

In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.

Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.

One source close to the prospective deal said that Lloyds had identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.

Lloyds is also said to believe that Curve would be a financially rational asset to own because of the fees Apple charges consumers to use its Apple Pay service.

In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.

Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform ThoughtMachine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.

The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 750 branches across Britain.

Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.

When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.

“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.

“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”

IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology…they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.

“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”

News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.

Lord Fink declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Saturday morning, while Curve did not respond to an enquiry sent by email.

Lloyds also declined to comment, while Stifel KBW could not be reached for comment.

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

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Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

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The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

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UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

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UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

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In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.

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