Could higher borrowing give Rachel Reeves her optimistic vision?

Published

2 months ago

September 24, 2024

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Today saw a shift in rhetoric from Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she moved to promise the Labour conference a more optimistic vision for the country.

But quietly there also appears to have been a shift in approach, which could mean a markedly different landscape for public spending come the budget on 30 October, allowing far greater scope for Labour to borrow and spend.

Politics live: ‘More optimistic’ Budget could be in store

The easiest way to see the change is to compare the chancellor’s actions before and after the summer.

In July, when Ms Reeves created the £22bn “black hole”, she gave us a taste of how she intended to fill it.

Not only was there the means testing of the winter fuel allowance, but she did something the Treasury have been wanting for years – to cancel a whole load of investment projects, including road building with the A303 down to Cornwall, as well as delaying the hospital building programme.

This was as striking as it was confusing. Such projects would be the cornerstone of any government’s growth plan.

Yet in the eternal tension in Labour between fiscal discipline and growth, the former had won out seemingly at the expense of the latter.

And Treasury mandarins at the time were clear. The best way to fill an immediate £22bn black hole would always be to delay or can these investments – or capital projects.

Now fast forward to the Autumn and £16bn of the black hole remains to be filled on 30 October.

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There is no doubt that some tax rises, welfare cuts and spending curbs may be in the mix. But I am told that borrowing might also be used to plug this hole.

This is by no means certain – the government’s first fiscal rule could yet prevent this from happening.

But I am told they may reduce the amount of cuts or tax rises simply by putting it on the nation’s credit card once more.

This is just one of the ways that the government may allow itself to borrow more.

There is the well-trailed discussion about redefining debt in the second fiscal rule – a technical change that could free up £15bn or more.

There’s discussion about how to treat other assets like GB Energy on the balance sheet, which again could allow the government to borrow more within its rules.

The markets are unlikely to take fright. They have been convinced, it seems, by the vibe of Ms Reeves as an iron chancellor.

However, there is now a chance the optimistic vision she outlined today could come sooner than we think – thanks to higher borrowing.

Politics

Coin Center warns US policies could scare away crypto investors despite Trump win

Published

4 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Coin Center warns US policies could scare away crypto investors despite Trump win

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Politics

Starmer says UK will ‘set out a plan’ to raise defence spending to 2.5%

Published

9 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Starmer says UK will 'set out a plan' to raise defence spending to 2.5%

The UK will “set out a plan” to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income in the spring, the prime minister has said, finally offering a timeframe for an announcement on the long-awaited hike after mounting criticism.

Sir Keir Starmer gave the date during a phone call with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, in the wake of threats by Moscow to target UK and US military facilities following a decision by London and Washington to let Ukraine fire their missiles inside Russia.

There was no clarity though on when the 2.5% level will be achieved. The UK says it currently spends around 2.3% of GDP on defence.

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A spokeswoman for Downing Street said that the two men “began by discussing the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the importance of putting the country in the strongest possible position going into the winter”.

They also talked about the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russia.

“The prime minister underscored the need for all NATO countries to step up in support of our collective defence and updated on the government’s progress on the strategic defence review,” the spokeswoman said.

“His government would set out the path to 2.5% in the spring.”

The defence review will also be published in the spring.

While a date for an announcement on 2.5% will be welcomed by the Ministry of Defence, analysts have long warned that such an increase is still well below the amount that is needed to rebuild the armed forces after decades of decline to meet growing global threats from Russia, an increasingly assertive China, North Korea and Iran.

They say the UK needs to be aiming to hit at least 3% – probably higher.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there will be significantly more pressure on the UK and other European NATO allies to accelerate increases in defence spending.