Connect with us

Published

on

The UK remains at risk from “lingering” inflation but its economy is among nations showing “robust” growth, according to a biannual report which upgrades its expectations for output both this year and next.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) saw UK gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 1.1% this year – faster than the euro area combined.

That compared to a figure of just 0.4% it had forecast for 2024 back in May.

Money latest: US suing Visa

It marked one of the biggest upgrades to forecasts among the Paris-based club’s 38 member states.

Its predictions, the OECD cautioned, continued to be at the mercy of world events following a succession of shocks in recent years from COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.

The UK upgrade largely reflected the better-than-expected performance seen during the first six months of the year when the country exited the recession of the second half of 2023.

More on Uk Economy

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Lloyd’s of London boss on outlook in ‘riskier world’

The downturn was widely blamed by economists on the impact of Bank of England interest rate hikes to bring down inflation.

In its update, the OECD said a high pace of wage growth, while moderating, remained a threat to the UK inflation outlook.

It also pointed to continued pressure from services price inflation.

The findings chimed with recent commentary from the Bank of England that it would take a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, following the shift to 5% from 5.25% seen in August.

The OECD suggested UK growth would accelerate mildly to 1.2% during 2025 – a timeframe ahead that is currently shrouded in mystery as the new Labour government is yet to outline its first budget, due on 30 October.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has promised a focus on bolstering growth.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chancellor: ‘No return to austerity’

She said of the report’s findings: “Faster economic growth figures are welcomed, but I know there is more to do and that is why economic growth is the number one mission of this government.

“Next month’s budget will be about fixing the foundations, so we can deliver on the promise of change and rebuild Britain.”

The OECD forecasts showed a further downgrade for Europe’s largest economy, Germany, which was seen as growing by only 0.1% this year.

Its anticipated performance, largely a consequence of an uncompetitive manufacturing base during a time of slowdown in China, has proved a drag on the wider euro area’s GDP forecast.

That stood at an unrevised 0.7%.

The European Central Bank is expected to act twice more this year to cut borrowing costs in a bid to bolster flagging activity.

Its US counterpart cut its target range for the first time since 2020 last week amid worries over a hiring downturn.

The OECD said it still expected US GDP growth to slow to a rate of 2.6% this year – cushioned by further monetary policy easing as inflation came under control.

The report predicts: “Significant risks remain. Persisting geopolitical and trade tensions could increasingly damage investment and raise import prices.

“Growth could slow more sharply than expected as labour markets cool, and deviations from the expected smooth disinflation path could trigger disruptions in financial markets.

“On the upside, the recovery in real incomes could provide a stronger boost to consumer confidence and spending, and further oil price declines would hasten disinflation.”

It added: “Decisive fiscal actions are needed to ensure debt sustainability, preserve room for governments to react to future shocks and generate resources to help meet future spending pressures. Stronger efforts to contain spending and enhance revenues, set within credible medium-term adjustment paths, are key to ensuring that debt burdens stabilise.”

Continue Reading

Business

Aberdeen in exclusive talks to sell investment tips site Finimize

Published

on

By

Aberdeen in exclusive talks to sell investment tips site Finimize

Aberdeen is in exclusive talks to sell Finimize, the investment insights platform it bought just four years ago, as its new chief executive unwinds another chunk of his predecessor’s legacy.

Sky News understands the FTSE-250 asset management group has narrowed its search for a buyer for Finimize to a single party.

The exclusive talks with the buyer – whose identity was unclear on Sunday – have been ongoing for at least a month, according to insiders.

City sources said Brave Bison, the London-listed marketing group that operates a number of community-based businesses, was among the parties that had previously held talks with Aberdeen about a deal.

Finimize charges an annual subscription fee for investment tips, and had more than one million subscribers to its newsletter at the time of Aberdeen’s £87m purchase of the business.

Read more from Sky News
City veteran in talks to chair HSBC
Controversial ferry boss to quit
Carmaker to cut 550 jobs

The sale of Finimize would represent another step in chief executive Jason Windsor’s reshaping of the company, which now has a market capitalisation of £3.6bn.

Mr Windsor, who replaced Steven Bird last year, also ditched the company’s much-ridiculed Abrdn branding, with the group having been formed in 2017 from the merger of Aberdeen Asset Management and Standard Life.

Investors were left underwhelmed by the merger, which originally valued the enlarged company at about £11bn.

On Friday, Aberdeen shares closed at 194.7p, up 30% during the last year.

Aberdeen declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Business

City veteran Kheraj in contention to chair banking giant HSBC

Published

on

By

City veteran Kheraj in contention to chair banking giant HSBC

Naguib Kheraj, the City veteran, has been shortlisted to become the next chairman of HSBC Holdings, Europe’s biggest bank.

Sky News can reveal that Mr Kheraj, a former Barclays finance chief, is among a small number of contenders currently being considered to replace Sir Mark Tucker.

HSBC, which has a market capitalisation of £165.4bn, has been conducting a search for Sir Mark’s successor since the start of the year.

Money latest: How Gen Z investors are making their way in property

In June, Sky News revealed that the former McKinsey boss Kevin Sneader was among the candidates being considered to lead the bank, although it was unclear this weekend whether he remained in the process.

Mr Kheraj would, in many respects, be seen as a solid choice for the job.

He is familiar with HSBC’s core markets in Asia, having spent several years on the board of Standard Chartered, the FTSE-100 bank, latterly as deputy chairman.

He also possesses extensive experience as a chairman, having led the privately held pensions insurer Rothesay Life, while he now chairs Petershill Partners, the London-listed private equity investment group backed by Goldman Sachs.

Mr Kheraj’s other interests have included acting as an adviser to the Aga Khan Development Board and The Wellcome Trust, as well as the Financial Services Authority.

He spent 12 years at Barclays, holding board roles for much of that time, before he went on to become chief executive of JP Morgan Cazenove, the London-based investment bank.

HSBC’s shares have soared over the last year, rising by close to 50%, despite the headwinds posed by President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs regime.

In June, the bank said that Sir Mark would be replaced on an interim basis by Brendan Nelson, one of its existing board members, while it continued the search for a permanent successor.

Ann Godbehere, HSBC’s senior independent director, said at the time: “The nomination and corporate governance committee continues to make progress on the succession process for the next HSBC group chair.

“Our focus is on securing the best candidate to lead the board and wider group over the next phase of our growth and development.”

Sky News revealed late last year that MWM, the headhunter founded by Anna Mann, a prominent figure in the executive search sector, was advising HSBC on the process.

Since then, at least one other firm has been drafted in to work on the mandate.

Read more from Sky News
Explainer: How the US war is targeting you
Controversial ferry boss to quit
More than 500 jobs cut at carmaker

Sir Mark, who has chaired HSBC since 2017, steps down at the end of next month to become non-executive chair of AIA, the Asian insurer he used to run.

He will continue to advise HSBC’s board during the hunt for his long-term successor.

As a financial behemoth with deep ties to both China and the US, HSBC is deeply exposed to escalating trade and diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

When he was appointed, Mr Tucker became the first outsider to take the post in the bank’s 152-year history – which has a big presence on the high street thanks to its acquisition of the Midland Bank in 1992.

He oversaw a rapid change of leadership, appointing bank veteran John Flint to replace Stuart Gulliver as chief executive.

The transition did not work out, however, with Mr Tucker deciding to sack Mr Flint after just 18 months.

He was replaced on an interim basis by Noel Quinn in the summer of 2018, with that change becoming permanent in April 2020.

Mr Quinn spent a further four years in the post before deciding to step down, and in July 2024 he was succeeded by Georges Elhedery, a long-serving executive in HSBC’s markets unit, and more recently the bank’s chief financial officer.

The new chief’s first big move in the top job was to unveil a sweeping reorganisation of HSBC that sees it reshaped into eastern markets and western markets businesses.

He also decided to merge its commercial and investment banking operations into a single division.

The restructuring, which Mr Elhedery said would “result in a simpler, more dynamic, and agile organisation” has drawn a mixed reaction from analysts, although it has not interrupted a strong run for the stock.

During Sir Mark’s tenure, HSBC has also continued to exit non-core markets, selling operations in countries such as Canada and France as it has sharpened its focus on its Asian businesses.

On Friday, HSBC’s London-listed shares closed at 946.7p.

HSBC has been contacted for comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Bank shares take fright as budget tax hike is floated

Published

on

By

Bank shares take fright as budget tax hike is floated

Shares in UK banks have fallen sharply on the back of a report which urges the chancellor to place their profits in her sights at the coming budget.

As Rachel Reeves stares down a growing deficit – estimated at between £20bn-£40bn heading into the autumn – the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said there was an opportunity for a windfall by closing a loophole.

It recommended a new levy on the interest UK lenders receive from the Bank of England, amounting to £22bn a year, on reserves held as a result of the Bank’s historic quantitative easing, or bond-buying, programme.

Money latest: Ryanair changes cabin bag sizing

It was first introduced at the height of the financial crisis, in 2009.

The left-leaning think-tank said the money received by banks amounted to a subsidy and suggested £8bn could be taken from them annually to pay for public services.

It argued that the loss-making scheme – a consequence of rising interest rates since 2021 – had left taxpayers footing the bill unfairly as the Treasury has to cover any loss.

More on Rachel Reeves

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Why taxes might go up

The Bank recently estimated the total hit would amount to £115bn over the course of its lifetime.

The publication of the report coincided with a story in the Financial Times which spoke of growing fears within the banking sector that it was firmly in the chancellor’s sights.

Her first budget, in late October last year, put businesses on the hook for the bulk of its tax-raising measures.

Ms Reeves is under pressure to find more money from somewhere as she has ruled out breaking her own fiscal rules to help secure the cash she needs through heightened borrowing.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?

Other measures understood to be under consideration include a wealth tax, new property tax and a shake-up that could lead to a replacement for council tax.

Analysts at Exane told clients in a note: “In the last couple of years, the chancellor has been protective of the banks and has avoided raising taxes.

“However, public finances may require additional cash and pressures for a bank tax from within the Labour party seem to be rising,” it concluded.

The investor flight saw shares in Lloyds and NatWest plunge by more than 5%. Those for Barclays were more than 4% lower at one stage.

A spokesperson for the Treasury said the best way to strengthen public finances was to speed up economic growth.

“Changes to tax and spend policy are not the only ways of doing this, as seen with our planning reforms,” they added.

Continue Reading

Trending