Israel and Hezbollah on brink of all-out war – the key moments that brought us here
An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.
While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.
Missile strike on football field
The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
The missile strike hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Pic: AP
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.
The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.
Assassination campaign begins
In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.
Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.
Killing of Hamas leader
Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.
Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.
Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.
On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.
Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.
Exploding devices in Lebanon
But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market
The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.
Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.
Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.
Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.
Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.
Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon between 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS
On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.
It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.
“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.
Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets
Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.
That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.
“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.
Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.
Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.
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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon
Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.
The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The US secretary of state has hailed a “tremendous amount of progress” on peace talks after the US and Ukraine delegations met in Geneva – but said that negotiators would “need more time”.
Marco Rubio said the meetings in Switzerland on Sunday have been “the most productive and meaningful” of the peace process so far.
He said the US was making “some changes” to the peace plan, seemingly based on Ukrainian suggestions, “in the hopes of further narrowing the differences and getting closer to something that both Ukraine and obviously the United States are very comfortable with”.
Mr Rubio struck an optimistic tone talking to the media after discussions but was light on the details, saying there was still work to be done.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Geneva after peace talks with Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
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Analysis: Rubio strikes an optimistic tone – but is light on detail
“I don’t want to declare victory or finality here. There’s still some work to be done, but we are much further ahead today at this time than we were when we began this morning and where we were a week ago for certain,” Mr Rubio said.
He also stressed: “We just need more time than what we have today. I honestly believe we’ll get there.”
Sky News’ defence analyst Michael Clarke said on the initial US-Russian 28-point peace plan that it was Donald Trump against the world, with maybe only Moscow on his side.
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Is Trump’s plan a ‘capitulation document’?
Mr Rubio praised the Ukrainian attitude towards the talks and said Mr Trump was “quite pleased” after he previously said in a social media post that Ukraine’s leaders had expressed “ZERO GRATITUDE” for US efforts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday that there are signs that “President Trump’s team hears us”.
In a news release on Sunday evening, the White House said the day “marked a significant step forward”.
“Ukrainian representatives stated that, based on the revisions and clarifications presented today, they believe the current draft reflects their national interests and provides credible and enforceable mechanisms to safeguard Ukraine’s security in both the near and long term,” it claimed.
Despite diplomatic progress in Geneva the finish line remains a long way off
We’ve witnessed a day of determined and decidedly frantic diplomacy in this well-heeled city.
Camera crews were perched on street corners and long convoys of black vehicles swept down Geneva’s throughfares as the Ukrainians worked hard to keep the Americans on side.
Secretary of state Marco Rubio did not want to go into details at a press “gaggle” held at the US Mission this evening, but he seemed to think they had made more progress in the last 96 hours than the previous 10 months combined.
The Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy also seemed satisfied enough, posting on Telegram that there were “signals President Trump’s team is hearing us” after a day of “numerous meetings and negotiations”.
That said, we are a long way from the finish line here – something Rubio acknowledged when he said that any proposal agreed here would have to be handed over to the Russians.
At that point, negotiations to stop the war would surely get tougher.
President Putin has shown little or no inclination to stop the conflict thus far.
This, then, is the most important reason the Ukrainians seem determined to keep the Americans on side.
European leaders have presented a counter proposal to the widely criticised US-Russian peace plan, with suggestions including a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime army and readmitting Moscow into the G8.
This will only take place if the plan is agreed to by the US, Russia and Ukraine, and the G7 signs off on the move. Russia was expelled after annexing Crimea in 2014.
The counter proposal also includes US guarantees to Ukraine that mirror NATO’s Article 5 – the idea that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all”.
The initial peace plan was worked up by the White House and Kremlin without Ukraine’s involvement, and it acquiesces to many of Russia’s previous demands.
Read more:
Who actually wrote US-Russian peace plan for Ukraine?
In full: Europe’s 28-point counter proposal to US-Russia plan
It covers a range of issues – from territorial concessions to reconstruction programmes, the future Ukrainian relationship with NATO and the EU, and educational reforms in both Ukraine and Russia.
Footage geolocated by Sky News showed Russian soldiers walking through the Shakhtarskyi neighbourhood on the outskirts of Pokrovsk on Thursday.
The video sheds light on the situation in this key frontline area, as Russian forces slowly encroach on Myrnohrad, the satellite town to Pokrovsk, and one of its last remaining outposts.
Videos geolocated by Sky News show fighting intensifying in recent weeks, as Russian forces attempt to gain control of the towns and their network of road and rail intersections.
Gaining control here would give Russia a base from which to access key cities further north that form part of Ukraine’s “fortress belt”.
Russian forces are advancing from all directions, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), with only one small opening to the northwest of Myrnohrad remaining.
Estimated to be only 3km wide by military experts, this withdrawal corridor is patrolled by Russian drone units which monitor the area for moving vehicles and those who may attempt to leave on foot.
Russian forces have been advancing on Myrnohrad since late October.
Video from a Ukrainian unit in Myrnohad, posted on 29 October, shows a Russian vehicle attempting to enter the town from the northeast. The tank is attacked and soldiers attempting to enter on foot are targeted.
Video posted on 3 November shows Russian forces on the ground in the south of the town.
By 8 November, Russian strikes begin to pummel the northeast of Myrnohrad, the location of many of the town’s high-rise buildings, at that time, held by Ukrainian forces.
George Barros, Russia Team & Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at ISW, told Sky News that Russian strategy in Pokrovsk has been to erode Ukrainian logistical capacity using drones and artillery over the course of several months.
“After denying supply lines and degrading the frontline forces by essentially cutting them off from behind and starving them out in their positions, then the Russians move forward with their infantry and frontal assaults,” Barros explained.
Capture the flag
For a brief period, it looked as though Russian forces had captured Myrnohrad.
Videos posted on 13 November appeared to show a Russian flag flying over the Myrnohrad mine.
However, video posted the following day showed a Ukrainian drone shooting it down.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight for control of Myrnohrad, with videos posted on the 19 and 20 November showing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the town, and Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian forces on foot.
While the exact numbers of Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area remains unclear, reports indicate that three key Russian units are active in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and are advancing on the towns from the north and south.
A number of Ukrainian units remain inside the towns, including the 145th Assault regiment and the 32nd, 35th, 38th and 155th Brigades. Reports indicate that more Ukrainian units have been moved into surrounding areas to hold the withdrawal corridor open.
Sky News reached out to the Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad, but they declined to comment, citing military regulations.
Strategic significance
Natia Seskuria, associate international security fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), explained that the area is important for the Ukrainians to keep and the Russians to take because of its strategic position.
“Situated at a major road and rail intersection in Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk has functioned as a central artery for moving troops, equipment, and supplies to Ukrainian units deployed along the surrounding front.”
Russia “would gain a platform to redirect its offensive efforts toward Ukraine’s principal defensive urban centres… including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk,” Seskuria said.
Read more:
Analysis – Ukraine and its allies are in a perilous moment
Analysis: Europe scrambles at G20 over Ukraine peace plane
G20 lands in South Africa: But who feels forgotten?
Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk have fought intensely and at close quarters over the last month.
In late October US-made Black Hawk helicopters containing specialist troops directed by Ukrainian military intelligence entered Pokrovsk to try to keep the town.
But as Russian troops advance, Myrnohrad is becoming the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the area.
Uncertain future
At least up until 12 November, there were still civilians living in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, despite strikes on buildings in both cities.
Residents sit in an armoured vehicle as Ukrainian police officers evacuate them from Pokrovske on 11 November. Source: Reuters
A post made on that day by the Donetsk state regional administration estimated 1,200 people remain living in Pokrovsk and 900 in Myrnohrad.
Evacuation is only possible with the help of the military or police, and it is not clear how many have evacuated in the 11 days since.
Barros of ISW says gaining Pokrovsk would increase Russia’s leverage at the negotiating table.
“If the Russians can successfully convince enough international leaders that, okay, the Russians took Pokrovsk, they’re going to take the next thing, and they’re going take the thing, so now let’s negotiate, then that is a strategic victory for the Russians.”
Production by Michelle Inez Simon, Visual Investigations Producer.
The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Torrential rain, flooding and landslides has left more than 100 people dead or missing in Vietnam.
Rainfall has exceeded 74.8in (1.9 metres) in some parts of central Vietnam over the past week.
The region is a major coffee production belt and home to popular beaches, but it is also prone to storms and floods.
Fatalities have been reported in Dak Lak province and the neighbouring Khanh Hoa province.
Parts of Quy Nhon has been under several feet of water. Pic: picture-alliance/dpa/AP
Footage has been released by local police of a dramatic rescue, involving a drone which airlifted a stranded man to safety from an island in the middle of the Serepok River, Dak Lak province.
The government estimates the flooding has cost the economy around 8.98 trillion dong (£260m).
More than 235,000 houses were flooded and nearly 80,000 hectares of crops were damaged, Vietnam’s disaster agency said.
On Thursday, VietnamNet newspaper said that a suspension bridge on Da Nhim River in Lam Dong province had been swept away.
Video footage posted online showed the bridge being swallowed by the river in just a few seconds.
Naval forces have been deployed to help stranded citizens in Khanh Hoa, the Vietnam News Agency reported, adding that floodwaters had reached record highs in many areas.
Photos shared in state media reports showed residents, including children, sitting on the roofs of flooded houses in Khanh Hoa, Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces.
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A seven-year-old girl was rescued late on Wednesday in Da Lat, the capital of Lam Dong province, after being buried by a landslide, the Nhan Dan newspaper reported.
The landslide, triggered by heavy rain, knocked down and buried part of the house where the girl was staying.
She was pulled out after an hour and a half and was taken to hospital with a broken leg, according to the report.
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