Tory leadership race: One electrifying speech can turn a contest on its head – but are any of the contenders up to it?
The race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader could be won and lost in Birmingham over the next few days.
The “beauty contest” involving the remaining candidates at the party conference has the potential to transform one of the not-so-famous four from also-ran to front-runner.
Robert Jenrick, ahead among Conservative MPs, has the early momentum and is a slick performer. But could one of his rivals – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat – dramatically upset the odds?
It has happened before, spectacularly, when outsider David Cameron made the speech of his life at a leadership “beauty contest” in 2005 and overtook the early favourite, David Davis, to snatch victory and seize the Tory crown.
Looking ahead to Birmingham, one conference veteran has told Sky News it’ll be “shine – or crash!” and is almost salivating at the prospect of the foursome facing Tory activists under the glare of live TV cameras and the scrutiny of party grandees and power brokers.
No pressure, then, on the one lady and trio of gentlemen on parade. This is crunch time in the leadership battle: a penalty shoot-out in a long – critics claim too long – and bruising campaign.
Or to use another footballing analogy, as Sir Alex Ferguson used to say to describe buttock-clenching tension, it’s “squeaky bum time”.
In 2005, the now Lord Cameron shone with a brilliantly delivered, upbeat speech: no notes, no lectern and a relaxed, casual stroll around the stage of Blackpool’s iconic Winter Gardens. The ovation was long and loud.
Mr Davis didn’t crash, to be fair. But in comparison, his speech, though respectable, was workmanlike. The two contrasting speeches were a turning point in the leadership campaign.
David Cameron sought to be leader of his party after the 2005 election. Pic: PA
This time, the contest begins with a “fireside chat” and members’ questions for an hour with each candidate. On Monday, it’s Mr Tugendhat and Ms Badenoch, and on Tuesday, Mr Jenrick and Mr Cleverly.
Then Wednesday is the big day, with four “stump speeches” of 20 minutes each. This time the order is expected to be Mr Tugendhat, Mr Cleverly, Mr Jenrick and Ms Badenoch.
Recalling the 2005 conference in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “The week in Blackpool was undoubtedly one of the most exciting of my life.
“The acoustics were good, the hall was packed and the audience was close to the stage. The atmosphere and the potential were tangible.”
Surprisingly, given the reception his speech received, Lord Cameron believed it wasn’t as good as the one he made at his campaign launch a few days earlier.
“But many more people saw it,” he acknowledged, “as it was carried live on television and reprised on the evening news.”
Indeed it was.
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I vividly remember reporting on the speech for Sky News and describing it as “electrifying” – a verdict Mr Cameron’s team gleefully reported in their leadership campaign newsletter the following morning.
The speech was what we later grew accustomed to. Classic Cameron, full of hope and optimism, all sunny and cheerful. It included these lines:
“I joined this party because I love my country…
“I joined this party because I believe in freedom…
“I joined this party because I believe in aspiration…
“I want people to feel good about being a Conservative again.”
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And in words that could have been spoken by Sir Keir Starmer about changing the Labour Party, he added: “We have to change… we’ve got to change our culture so we look, feel, think and behave like a completely new organisation.”
Reflecting on the speech in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “What impressed many people was that I delivered it without notes, having memorised it as we drafted it. Watching it now, I find it rather wooden, but it worked.”
It certainly did. “Within a single day,” Lord Cameron wrote, “the polls were transformed: support for me surged from 16% to 39%, while for Davis it collapsed from 30% to 14%”.
It was a stunning turnaround. Could something like that happen this year in Birmingham?
David Davis saw his supporters wearing ‘it’s DD for me’ T-shirts ahead of his conference speech in 2005. Pic: Reuters
In 2005, although leadership candidates Kenneth Clarke, Liam Fox and Malcolm Rifkind were also on parade in the Winter Gardens, the contest was seen as a two-horse race, with Mr Davis – still in the Commons to this day aged 75 – out in front.
But Mr Davis wasn’t all that was out in front. Mr Cameron’s reputation as the moderniser in the race was helped by his rival parading young women supporters in tight-fitting T-shirts proclaiming “It’s DD for me”.
Headline writers called it “a storm in a DD-cup”. And nearly 20 years on, we’re unlikely to see a repeat of that sort of campaigning.
But will one of the four leadership candidates repeat Lord Cameron’s Tory conference triumph of 2005 that propelled him to the leadership?
It’s entirely possible. Don’t bet against it. But which candidate will it be?
Kemi Badenoch has denied the Conservatives would consider means testing the pensions triple lock, as she accused her opponents of trying to “scare people”.
The Tory leader sought to clarify remarks she made on LBC on Thursday evening, which were interpreted as her leaving the door open to means testing the system that guarantees the state pension rises in line with average earnings, inflation or 2.5% – whichever is highest.
The Conservatives have long championed the triple lock – introduced by former chancellor George Osborne during the coalition government – but some senior Conservatives have recently hinted that it might not be sustainable in the long term.
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Ms Badenoch told LBC her party would look at “means testing” – something she said “we don’t do properly here” – in response to a question about the triple lock.
Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK were quick to seize on Ms Badenoch’s comments, claiming the Tory leader would “cut your state pension”.
However, the Tory leader posted on X that she was referring to means testing generally rather than with specific regards to the triple lock.
‘Bungling Badenoch’: Tory pension proposal triggers political pile-on
From criticising “excessive” maternity pay to describing herself as becoming “working class” while working at McDonald’s – not to mention slamming sandwiches as “not real food” (compared to a desktop steak), Kemi Badenoch is never one to shy away from controversy.
Supporters argue this straight-talking directness is a key part of her appeal. But it also gets her into trouble.
On an LBC phone-in last night she was asked what she wanted to do for younger voters fed up with the triple lock on state pensions (which means they go up every year by 2.5%, inflation, or average earnings – whichever is higher).
Her response was to suggest “we’re going to look at means testing” as “we don’t have a system that knows who should get what”.
The idea that the Tories might not be religiously committed to a universal triple lock has led to a political pile-on.
It’s unclear what exactly means testing the triple lock would work in practice; it’s clearly not a developed policy yet (indeed, Ms Badenoch argues the party shouldn’t be focused on specific policies so soon after their drubbing at the last election).
Politicians on all sides have criticised the triple lock before, with the shadow chancellor Mel Stride previously describing it as “unsustainable” and the new pensions minister Torsten Bell as “messy” in his previous role at the Resolution Foundation thinktank.
But Labour are adamant that they would never abandon the triple lock.
Somehow, the Conservative attack on the government’s treatment of pensioners over the winter fuel allowance has become a big question mark over the Tories’ commitment to a promise which has become totemic with many of their core voters.
“Labour punished poor pensioners, snatching away winter fuel payments due to poor means testing,” she said.
“We need better mechanisms, not proxies like pension credit or free school meals. So why are Labour, Reform, and Lib Dems pretending we’re cancelling the triple lock? They’re scared.”
She continued: “In the clip attached, I say ‘no’ to looking at the triple lock.
“But we do need to deliver better means testing. Big tech and supermarkets know more than the government about its citizens. It’s time to change the system for the better. Let’s do this for the next generation.”
On Friday morning, Nigel Huddleston, the Tory party’s co-chair, defended Ms Badenoch and said means testing was very different to scrapping it all together.
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Speaking to Matt Barbet on Sky News Breakfast, Mr Huddleston said: “What Kemi said yesterday in answer to the triple lock… the first word out of her mouth was ‘no’.
“What she talked about yesterday in an interview was about means testing, and this is something she has commented on before, in the context of, for example, winter fuel.
“And she said, look, millionaires probably shouldn’t get it. Millionaires, not millions of pensioners – millionaires.
“We probably do need to look at means testing at some of those levels, and I don’t think many viewers would disagree with that.”
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