Oil alliance OPEC+ zeroes in on group compliance after postponing output hike
Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images
The OPEC+ alliance is once more cracking down on group compliance with oil output cuts, as it presses ahead with a three-pronged plan of formal and voluntary production trims.
Two OPEC+ delegates, who could only comment anonymously because of the sensitivity of the talks, told CNBC that the coalition has sharpened its focus on the conformity of its members with their output pledges, amid repeat overproduction from heavyweight members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.
Russia, whose barrels are sanctioned in the West and transported with lower visibility across a shadow fleet, has also at times exceeded its assigned quota under the alliance’s formal policy, one of the sources said.
Eight OPEC+ members, including kingpin Saudi Arabia, were due to begin returning 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts to the market starting in October. Earlier this month, they postponed this phaseout to start in December instead. OPEC+ nations are operating two other production declines: under official policy, they will produce a combined 39.725 million bpd next year. The same aforementioned eight members are separately curbing their output by another 1.7 million bpd throughout 2025, also on a voluntary basis.
Undercompliance has been a repeat bane of the OPEC+ alliance, casting a shadow over the credibility of its intentions to cut output – at a time of market uncertainty exacerbated by war in the hydrocarbon-rich Middle East, recent stock sell-offs and a fragile post-Covid recovery in the world’s top crude importer, China.
Oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of the year and dropped sharply on Thursday, following a Financial Times report stating that OPEC+ de facto leader Saudi Arabia was prepared to suffer through a low-price environment and abandon an unofficial $100 per barrel price target to bolster its output after December.
Brent crude futures with November expiry were trading at $71.44 per barrel at 2:30 p.m. London time, down 0.17% from the Thursday settlement. The front-month November Nymex WTI contract was at $67.75 per barrel, flat from the previous session’s close.
“I would read it more as the Saudis sending some warning to the cheaters within OPEC. Because I think Saudi Arabia has seen most of the burden of the production cuts,” Carole Nakhle, founder and CEO of Crystol Energy, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Friday, referring to the FT report.
Speaking of the group’s possible approach to price targeting, Nakhle added, “Of course, the higher the better for them, but nothing has been set in stone.”
OPEC+ ministers, including Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, have previously insisted that their policies target diminishing global stocks rather than an explicit price, although decisions to tighten supplies typically offer support to crude futures in the long term. But several member countries, including the Saudi kingdom, underpin their annual budgets on the assumption of a fiscal break-even price — which the International Monetary Fund estimates must hit $96.20 for Riyadh to meet its obligations this year.
Riyadh is locked in an extensive and costly program spanning 14 giga-projects, including the futuristic desert development Neom, to materialize Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambition of economic diversification away from reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.
Despite the economic pressures of enforcing the Vision 2030 program, Saudi Arabia has yet to change its OPEC+ approach and does not target an explicit oil price, one of the OPEC+ sources told CNBC, noting that Riyadh can reshape its budget or shore it up through alternative, non-oil revenues.
Earlier this month, Saudi Minister for Investment Khalid al-Falih pushed back against lingering skepticism over the country’s economic diversification plan, touting “green shoring” investment opportunities to lure foreign financing.
The prospect of Saudi Arabia weaponizing its vast production capacity to settle OPEC+ disputes is not without precedent. Back in 2020, Riyadh and Moscow engaged in a weeks-long price war in the wake of the abrupt but fleeting dissolution of the OPEC+ alliance, flooding the market at a time of already excess supply and dried-up demand amid the spreading Covid-19 pandemic — and briefly ushering WTI futures into negative territory.
OPEC+ receives monthly production figures — which assist it to calculate member compliance — from seven independent secondary sources. The coalition’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a technical group that oversees OPEC+ conformity, is due to next meet on Oct. 2.
Wind energy powered 20% of all electricity consumed in Europe (19% in the EU) in 2024, and the EU has set a goal to grow this share to 34% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050.
To stay on track, the EU needs to install 30 GW of new wind farms annually, but it only managed 13 GW in 2024 – 11.4 GW onshore and 1.4 GW offshore. This is what’s holding the EU back from achieving its wind growth goals.
Three big problems holding Europe’s wind power back
Europe’s wind power growth is stalling for three key reasons:
Permitting delays. Many governments haven’t implemented the EU’s new permitting rules, making it harder for projects to move forward.
Grid connection bottlenecks. Over 500 GW(!) of potential wind capacity is stuck in grid connection queues.
Slow electrification. Europe’s economy isn’t electrifying fast enough to drive demand for more renewable energy.
Brussels-based trade association WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson summed it up: “The EU must urgently tackle all three problems. More wind means cheaper power, which means increased competitiveness.”
Permitting: Germany sets the standard
Permitting remains a massive roadblock, despite new EU rules aimed at streamlining the process. In fact, the situation worsened in 2024 in many countries. The bright spot? Germany. By embracing the EU’s permitting rules — with measures like binding deadlines and treating wind energy as a public interest priority — Germany approved a record 15 GW of new onshore wind in 2024. That’s seven times more than five years ago.
If other governments follow Germany’s lead, Europe could unlock the full potential of wind energy and bolster energy security.
Grid connections: a growing crisis
Access to the electricity grid is now the biggest obstacle to deploying wind energy. And it’s not just about long queues — Europe’s grid infrastructure isn’t expanding fast enough to keep up with demand. A glaring example is Germany’s 900-megawatt (MW) Borkum Riffgrund 3 offshore wind farm. The turbines are ready to go, but the grid connection won’t be in place until 2026.
This issue isn’t isolated. Governments need to accelerate grid expansion if they’re serious about meeting renewable energy targets.
Electrification: falling behind
Wind energy’s growth is also tied to how quickly Europe electrifies its economy. Right now, electricity accounts for just 23% of the EU’s total energy consumption. That needs to jump to 61% by 2050 to align with climate goals. However, electrification efforts in key sectors like transportation, heating, and industry are moving too slowly.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has tasked Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen with crafting an Electrification Action Plan. That can’t come soon enough.
More wind farms awarded, but challenges persist
On a positive note, governments across Europe awarded a record 37 GW of new wind capacity (29 GW in the EU) in 2024. But without faster permitting, better grid connections, and increased electrification, these awards won’t translate into the clean energy-producing wind farms Europe desperately needs.
Investments and corporate interest
Investments in wind energy totaled €31 billion in 2024, financing 19 GW of new capacity. While onshore wind investments remained strong at €24 billion, offshore wind funding saw a dip. Final investment decisions for offshore projects remain challenging due to slow permitting and grid delays.
Corporate consumers continue to show strong interest in wind energy. Half of all electricity contracted under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2024 was wind. Dedicated wind PPAs were 4 GW out of a total of 12 GW of renewable PPAs.
Read more: Renewables could meet almost half of global electricity demand by 2030 – IEA
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the official unveiling of the new Tesla Model Y, Mazda 6e, Aptera solar car production-intent, and more.
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The Chinese EV leader is launching a new flagship electric sedan. BYD’s new Han L EV leaked in China on Friday, revealing a potential Tesla Model S Plaid challenger.
What we know about the BYD Han L EV so far
We knew it was coming soon after BYD teased the Han L on social media a few days ago. Now, we are learning more about what to expect.
BYD’s new electric sedan appeared in China’s latest Ministry of Industry and Information Tech (MIIT) filing, a catalog of new vehicles that will soon be sold.
The filing revealed four versions, including two EV and two PHEV models. The Han L EV will be available in single- and dual-motor configurations. With a peak power of 580 kW (777 hp), the single-motor model packs more power than expected.
BYD’s dual-motor Han L gains an additional 230 kW (308 hp) front-mounted motor. As CnEVPost pointed out, the vehicle’s back has a “2.7S” badge, which suggests a 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) sprint time of just 2.7 seconds.
To put that into perspective, the Tesla Model S Plaid can accelerate from 0 to 100 km in 2.1 seconds. In China, the Model S Plaid starts at RBM 814,900, or over $110,000. Speaking of Tesla, the EV leader just unveiled its highly anticipated Model Y “Juniper” refresh in China on Thursday. It starts at RMB 263,500 ($36,000).
BYD already sells the Han EV in China, starting at around RMB 200,000. However, the single front motor, with a peak power of 180 kW, is much less potent than the “L” model. The Han EV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 7.9 seconds.
At 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,970 mm, BYD’s new Han L is roughly the size of the Model Y (4,970 mm long, 1,964 mm wide, 1,445 mm tall, wheelbase of 2,960 mm).
Other than that it will use a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) pack from BYD’s FinDreams unit, no other battery specs were revealed. Check back soon for the full rundown.
Source: CnEVPost, China MIIT
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