121 losses?! The numbers behind the White Sox’s season of shame
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
The 2024 Chicago White Sox now stand alone in baseball’s hall of futility — 121 losses and counting, a staggering total too extreme to completely grasp. It’s surreal. It’s jaw-dropping. And if it had not actually happened, you might think it was impossible.
Believe it or not, this season across MLB is one of relative parity, a general regression toward the middle after a period of unusual polarization in the sport. At least that’s true at the top of the standings. For the first time since 2014, there isn’t going to be a 100-win team this season. Since 2017, there has been an average of three 100-win clubs per season.
But you won’t find parity on the South Side of Chicago. That the White Sox would set the mark in such a context underscores how remarkable it is that they’ve done what they’ve done.
That number — 121 — is bad enough, but of course Chicago has a few more days to add to it. The final number will hang like an albatross around everyone associated with the team forever, as 120 has for the 1962 New York Mets over the past six-plus decades.
The record loss total for the White Sox is the headliner, but it’s also an avatar for a whole slew of incredible numbers and the rampant dysfunction that has fueled them. Some are more or less trivial, but still pretty incredible. Some are explanatory, telling us a bit about how the White Sox have done something that should not be possible.
Here are 12 numbers — beyond 121 — that help explain the 2024 Chicago White Sox.
81.7%
The 1962 Mets lost 120 games, but, remarkably, they were fun. Even as the losses piled up, their fans embraced the expansion team. Manager Casey Stengel kept the baseball writers entertained. One of them, Jimmy Breslin, wrote a classic book about the season (“Can’t Anyone Here Play this Game?”).
There hasn’t been anything fun about this year’s White Sox, and it’s hard to see anyone wanting to write a book about them. Their fans, as they say, have stayed away in droves. The White Sox social media team threw up its hands. The ineptitude gathered so much momentum that a kind of fatalistic schadenfreude set in. When the club reached 114 losses, the Chicago Sun-Times ran a poll, asking, “At this point, are you rooting for them to break [the loss record]?”
Out of 1,450 respondents, 81.7% said they were.
7
Starting pitching has been the foundation for the White Sox’s success this season. You might scan that and see it as pure snark and, in a sense, that’s what it is. Still, Chicago’s starters as a group haven’t been tragically bad. It’s a bad rotation, but White Sox starters rank 24th in fWAR and 27th in FIP. Other teams have been worse.
Can you imagine how bad this would be if the White Sox had not gotten occasionally competent starting pitching from the likes of Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet and Jonathan Cannon? Well, you really don’t have to, because we’ve seen that team since the All-Star break.
Fedde’s seven wins are going to lead the team. That’s a remarkably low number but not unprecedented. Just last season, JP Sears and Shintaro Fujinami led Oakland with a mere five wins apiece. What’s remarkable is that Fedde is going to lead the White Sox in wins even though he was dealt at the MLB trade deadline, two months before the end of the season. His last win for Chicago was on July 10.
Fedde and Crochet rank one-two on the team in bWAR and have been flat-out good for most of the season. Crochet was a leading Cy Young candidate into June, but to protect his arm (and trade value) the White Sox curtailed his workload. He hasn’t pitched more than four innings since June 30, a span in which he has started 14 times. Well, you can’t win if you don’t go five, so Crochet’s win total has been frozen at six since he beat the Red Sox on June 7.
So, by default, the long-gone Fedde is your 2024 White Sox win champ. With seven.
12
As mentioned, the season will end with Fedde and Crochet finishing 1-2 in bWAR and wins on the 2024 White Sox. They will do those things even though neither has won a single game for Chicago since July 10. Zero. From the two best pitchers on the team.
Since Fedde’s last Chicago win, every team in baseball has gotten at least 25 wins from its starting pitchers. Except for the White Sox. Since Fedde’s last South Side victory, Chicago’s starters have gone 12-52.
This number has more than trivial value because it in part explains how the White Sox’s descent to this historic nadir accelerated as the season progressed. As bad as Chicago was, for a while it could count on being competitive at least two out of every five times through the rotation. With Crochet being forced to turn things over to a historically awful bullpen after, at most, four innings, and with Fedde donning a Cardinals uniform, those two days were lost.
20
No one has suffered the ramifications of the White Sox’s lack of options more than right-hander Chris Flexen. This figure represents the number of consecutive starts he made in a game his team went on to lose. That’s a modern record.
We could have also gone with 23. That number represents Flexen’s streak of starts without earning a winning decision, a streak that was finally snapped Thursday.
Flexen has an ERA+ of 83 (100 is league average), yet he’s going to lead the White Sox in innings pitched (160). He finished just two innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. He wouldn’t get that kind of volume on a better team, but there are pitchers this season with worse ERA+ figures and more innings. Through it all, he has been healthy and one of Chicago’s five best available starters.
Like the team around him, Flexen has been a nasty combination of subpar performance and bad luck. He has had some decent outings, including 10 quality starts. His rate of quality starts (33%) is below average, but over 30 games that should have yielded much better than a 3-15 mark. According to Baseball Reference, Flexen is tied with Fedde and Colorado’s Austin Gomber for the most games (7) in which he has exited with a lead that was blown by the bullpen.
The bottom line is what it is: Flexen finished 2024 with three wins over 30 starts. In all of baseball history, among pitchers with at least 30 starts, only three have fared as badly. Two of those were Jerry Koosman (1978 Mets, also 3-15) and Spencer Turnbull (2019 Tigers, 3-17).
The third and possibly most apt historical comp for Flexen’s record is Jack Nabors, who went 1-20 for a team the White Sox ought to keep in mind over their remaining games. We’ll get to them.
35%
That’s the White Sox’s save percentage. Yes, that 35% mark, built upon an MLB-high 37 blown saves, is the worst in baseball and it’s not close. Miami is second worst at 53%. The MLB average is 63%.
The number gets worse the more you contextualize it. According to Stathead, it’s the worst figure in a full season of the expansion era (since 1961). Since World War II, only the 1949 Cincinnati Reds (33.5%) were worse. But let’s face it, this is far more dreadful than that because bullpens play such a major role in team performance in today’s MLB.
Chicago’s relief ERA (4.77) is 29th in the majors, with only Colorado’s Coors Field-affected figure worse (5.30). The bullpen has walked 327 batters — 57 more than any other club. Only one bullpen (Toronto) has yielded more homers (82). Chicago’s starters have departed with 27 leads that were then blown by the relief staff. That’s five more than any other club.
Finally, as an homage to our Fedde note: Chicago’s save leader is Michael Kopech, with nine. No one else has more than two. And, like Fedde, Kopech was traded away at the deadline. His last White Sox save came July 10 — in relief of Fedde’s final Chicago win.
9
Triples mean nothing from an evaluative standpoint. While it’s true that fast runners tend to get more of them than slow runners, ballpark factors loom almost as large. On top of that, Guaranteed Rate Field is a poor park for triples. About the only way to get one in that park is to poke a ball into the right-field corner and hope it rattles around a bit.
Still, even in this meaningless, random category, the White Sox stand out for their failure. Chicago has nine triples all season, four fewer than any other team and fewer than or equal to the number of triples Corbin Carroll, Jarren Duran, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Mike Yastrzemski have by themselves.
Again, this is a fluke category, but it illustrates one thing about this team: It’s not just bad. It’s boring.
$3.37M
According to salary data from Spotrac, the White Sox have baseball’s 18th-ranked total payroll allocation ($133.8 million). They’re on pace for 40 wins, a cost of $3.37 million per victory.
For as few wins as they have, the White Sox have spent more on a per-win basis than any other team but the Mets. The Yankees ($3.26 million) and Mets ($3.54 million) are sandwiched around Chicago on this leaderboard. But their costs are justified in that those clubs are, you know, winning games and playing on into October (or coming very close).
The three highest-paid White Sox and their 2024 bWAR: Yoan Moncada, $24.8M (0.3); Andrew Benintendi, $17.1M (minus-0.9); Luis Robert Jr. $12.5M (1.3).
.2353
That’s the winning percentage of the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics — the club for whom Nabors toiled — taken to four decimal places. That’s the worst in modern baseball history. The A’s went 36-117 and played a tie game, which isn’t included in their percentage calculation, as it would be in the NFL, for example. But this matters to us in 2024.
Against all odds that mattered to us in 2024, until the White Sox improbably won three straight over the Angels this week. Now the worst winning percentage the White Sox can finish with (39-123, or .241) is safely above the 1916 Athletics’ mark. Hey, at this point every positive matters.
In many respects, the 1916 A’s are very much the historical antecedent of the 2024 White Sox. Like Chicago, that Philadelphia team was very good only a couple of years prior to its nadir, having played in the 1914 World Series. Like the White Sox, that good team was subsequently dismantled to horrific results.
The 1962 Mets were an expansion club, so at least they had a built-in excuse for their foibles. Heck, the all-time loss champ, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders — who went 20-134 the season before what we consider the modern era — get a pass. The Spiders were owned by the Robison family, who also happened to own the NL team in St. Louis. After the 1898 campaign, they transferred all the good players in Cleveland over to St. Louis. That’s not something that could happen these days.
Getting to 39 means the White Sox and their remaining proud fans get the straw-grasping option of pointing at Connie Mack’s worst team and claiming that, indeed, there was a team even worse.
2
That’s the number of managers Chicago has had this season, with Grady Sizemore taking over for Pedro Grifol on an interim basis in August. As bad as things were for Grifol (28-89), Sizemore has fared even worse (11-32) given the hollowed-out roster he has to work with.
Sizemore is the 43rd manager in White Sox history, a total that includes two-game stints for interim skippers Don Cooper (2011) and Doug Rader (1986). In what might be a permanent reminder of the 2024 ChiSox, Grifol (.319) and Sizemore (.256) rank 42nd and 43rd on the franchise list for manager winning percentage.
This will remain the case even if Chicago wins its final two games.
Minus-21.5
It’s not like the White Sox entered the season with high expectations. As of March 19, as spring training began to move toward the start of the regular season, their over/under for season wins stood at 61.5, per ESPN BET. That’s a 100-loss team, and given the nature of forecasts, that is a pretty stunning baseline. Still, Oakland (57.5) and Colorado (60.5) were even lower.
The silver lining in low expectations is that they afford the opportunity to over-deliver. Indeed, the A’s are on pace for 70 wins, quite a jab in the eye at those early forecasts. The Rockies have been mostly as advertised but even they are on pace for 62 wins — a minor triumph.
The White Sox’s pace of 40 wins is 21.5 below their baseline expectation entering the season. No one else has even come close to that kind of showing. The next-biggest negative deviation from the over/under is 16.5 by the Miami Marlins.
In a nutshell, this encapsulates just how stunning this level of losing is for any team, much less the White Sox. Given some of the lowest expectations in the sport, Chicago has still managed to be baseball’s biggest disappointment.
Well, that is unless you are one of the 81.7% of respondents to that Sun-Times poll who hoped this would come to pass.
Minus-7
The White Sox’s run differential is bad. Really bad. They’re at minus-311 runs, on pace to finish at minus-317 on the season. The modern era record is minus-349, a mark set by the 1932 Red Sox and challenged by last year’s Athletics (minus-339). Chicago would have to really get hammered from here to break the record but, well, let’s just say that this is a barrel with no apparent bottom.
As it stands, the White Sox’s run differential is representative of a team that ought to win 47 games over a 162-game campaign, putting Chicago on track to finish seven wins short of its run profile. That’s the biggest disparity in baseball, with the Cubs (5.3) finishing a distant second — giving Chicago a firm grip on a leaderboard a city doesn’t want to be on even once.
That seven-win shortfall might lead the majors this season, but it’s not a record or even that historically unusual. It’s a typical number for the unfortunate leader on this leaderboard in a given season. While bad luck doesn’t entirely explain this gap — check out that section above on the bullpen — misfortune does tend to play a large role in such disparities.
So it’s not misleading to claim that not only have the White Sox been baseball’s worst team, they’ve also been the unluckiest. This is evident in other ways:
• Using injury data from Baseball Prospectus, I calculate an in-season injury index for each team based on how much time players have missed and how good those players are. The league average is 100. The team with the best injury luck has been Toronto, with an index of 116.3. The Jays have had some key injuries (Jordan Romano and Bo Bichette, to name two) but the team’s overall volume of games missed has been low.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Dodgers at 84.3. L.A.’s injury woes, particularly when it comes to its rotation, have been well chronicled. The White Sox have an injury index of 89.9, ranking 27th. So, not only have Chicago’s key contributors struggled, they’ve also been injured a lot. There’s a joke about bad food/small portions in there somewhere.
• The Statcast leaderboards also underscore Chicago’s misfortune. White Sox hitters have the biggest disparities between actual and expected results, based on quality of contact, average, slugging and WOBA. It’s a clean sweep.
Meanwhile, Chicago pitchers are only tied for the biggest disparity between actual and expected WOBA allowed.
Look, you don’t get to 121 losses by being merely bad, though obviously that is a prerequisite. You also have to be unlucky. Across the board, Chicago has labored in futility and misfortune alike.
In short, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.
274
Monday, Sept. 30, will be the 274th day of the year 2024 on the Gregorian calendar. The MLB regular season will come to an end. Come next spring, the White Sox begin a new season with a clean slate, every one of those 121 (and counting) losses confined to the history books.
For the White Sox, this winter and the seasons to come will determine whether getting a fresh start is, for them, actually a good thing. They can at least take solace in this: Historically speaking, it can’t get worse.
Can it?
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Bill Connelly
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
More:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
1:05
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he is cleared to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
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Andrea Adelson
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Andrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
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David Hale
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David Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
After an awkwardly handled replay late in the first half of last weekend’s game between UConn and Syracuse, a longtime ACC official has quit his post over frustration with the way the review was handled, sources told ESPN on Friday.
Gary Patterson, who served as the head referee for Saturday’s matchup between the Huskies and the Orange and has worked as an official with the ACC since 2002, abruptly terminated his contract with the conference after the game.
The ACC confirmed Patterson’s departure from the conference’s roster of officials Friday but said that adjustments to officiating crews have already been made and that there will be no disruption to league officiating. Patterson had been scheduled to referee Saturday’s game between Pitt and West Virginia.
The sequence that reportedly led to Patterson’s departure began with 1:02 remaining in the half and UConn leading 14-3. Syracuse opened a drive at the Huskies’ 25-yard line, and on first down, quarterback Steve Angeli dropped back to pass. His arm was hit as he threw, and the ball went forward about 8 yards, landing on the turf.
The officials immediately ruled the pass incomplete. Syracuse then snapped the ball again with 58 seconds left on the clock, though about 25 seconds of real time passed between plays. The second-down throw was nearly intercepted before two UConn players collided and the pass fell incomplete, bringing up a third-and-10 with 53 seconds to go.
A flag was thrown after the play, however, and Patterson could be seen talking on his headset to the ACC’s command center for nearly 90 seconds before announcing that “replay had buzzed in prior to the previous play.”
Sources who have reviewed numerous camera angles of the sequence said there was no physical indication by any official on the field that they had been buzzed by the replay booth before the second-down snap. An ACC spokesperson said that officials were buzzed to initiate the review but that the timing was not ideal for it to be a seamless replay. The conference has addressed the handling of this sequence internally, the spokesperson said.
Officials reviewed the first-down play to see whether Angeli had fumbled, negating the second-down play, before ultimately upholding the original call of an incomplete pass.
Syracuse and UConn officials were told the referee had simply “not heard” the initial request from the replay booth before the second-down snap.
ESPN rules expert Bill LeMonnier, who has decades of experience as an official, said the series of events was uncharacteristic of how a replay would normally be handled.
“Let’s say they’re right up at the line, the ball’s being snapped, and the buzzers go off,” LeMonnier said. “It’s the referee’s discretion to shut the play down vs. saying it’s too late. It’s supposed to be in the referee’s hands.”
LeMonnier also said a flag thrown after the second-down play, which was presumably due to a high hit on Angeli by a UConn defender, was ignored, despite rules saying a personal foul would be enforced even during a dead ball period.
“The mistakes were completely created by either the replay booth or the command center,” LeMonnier said. “It’s not the fault of the officials on the field.”
Every play is subject to review. When officials are buzzed to begin the process, they get on the headset with the replay booth in the stadium and the ACC command center and the review is initiated.
Two sources with knowledge of the situation said the directive came from the ACC command center.
One source said Patterson was upset at the ACC’s interference in forcing a replay after the next play had already occurred, instigating his resignation. Patterson did not respond to requests by ESPN for comment.
After the second-down incompletion was wiped out, Syracuse went 61 yards on its next seven plays and kicked a field goal as time expired in the half. The Orange went on to win the game 27-20 in overtime.
For select games this season, the ACC has allowed cameras and audio access to the review process, offering transparency into the discussions between on-field officials and replay officials at the command center. Last week’s game between UConn and Syracuse, however, was not among those with command center coverage.
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