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The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.

With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.

Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?

Not if America and its allies can help it.

Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’

Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.

There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.

More on Hezbollah

But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?

Pic: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
27 September 2024, Lebanon, Shebaa: Lebanese Red cross workers inspect a destroyed three storey building, after it collapsed following an Israeli air raid in the southern Lebanese border village of Shebaa. Photo by: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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Lebanese Red Cross workers inspect a destroyed building. Pic: AP

US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.

A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.

“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.

With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.

For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.

Pic: AP
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Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP

Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?

If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.

But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.

The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.

For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.

Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.

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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?

There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?

That also comes down to Israel.

People stand next to Israeli Army tanks, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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People stand next to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Pic: Reuters

It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.

The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.

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What does Nasrallah’s death mean for Hezbollah?

Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.

If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.

The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.

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Ukraine and Europe cannot reject Trump’s plan – they will play for time and hope he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin

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Ukraine and Europe cannot reject Trump's plan - they will play for time and hope he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin

“Terrible”, “weird”, “peculiar” and “baffling” – some of the adjectives being levelled by observers at the Donald Trump administration’s peace plan for Ukraine.

The 28-point proposal was cooked up between Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff and Kremlin official Kirill Dmitriev without European and Ukrainian involvement.

It effectively dresses up Russian demands as a peace proposal. Demands first made by Russia at the high watermark of its invasion in 2022, before defeats forced it to retreat from much of Ukraine.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv receives US peace plan

(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP
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(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP

Its proposals are non-starters for Ukrainians.

It would hand over the rest of Donbas, territory they have spent almost four years and lost tens of thousands of men defending.

Analysts estimate at the current rate of advance, it would take Russia four more years to take the land it is proposing simply to give them instead.

It proposes more than halving the size of the Ukrainian military and depriving them of some of their most effective long-range weapons.

And it would bar any foreign forces acting as peacekeepers in Ukraine after any peace deal is done.

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Is Moscow back in Washington’s good books?

The plan comes at an excruciating time for the Ukrainians.

They are being pounded with devastating drone attacks, killing dozens in the last few nights alone.

They are on the verge of losing a key stronghold city, Pokrovsk.

And Volodymyr Zelenskyy is embroiled in the gravest political crisis since the war began, with key officials facing damaging corruption allegations.

Read more from Sky News:
Witkoff’s ‘secret’ plan to end war
Navy could react to laser incident

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Ukrainian support for peace plan ‘very much in doubt’

The suspicion is Mr Witkoff and Mr Dmitriev conspired together to choose this moment to put even more pressure on the Ukrainian president.

Perversely, though, it may help him.

There has been universal condemnation and outrage in Kyiv at the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Rivals have little choice but to rally around the wartime Ukrainian leader as he faces such unreasonable demands.

The genesis of this plan is unclear.

Was it born from Donald Trump’s overinflated belief in his peacemaking abilities? His overrated Gaza ceasefire plan attracted lavish praise from world leaders, but now seems mired in deepening difficulty.

The fear is Mr Trump’s team are finding ways to allow him to walk away from this conflict altogether, blaming Ukrainian intransigence for the failure of his diplomacy.

Mr Trump has already ended financial support for Ukraine, acting as an arms dealer instead, selling weapons to Europe to pass on to the invaded democracy.

If he were to take away military intelligence support too, Ukraine would be blind to the kind of attacks that in recent days have killed scores of civilians.

Europe and Ukraine cannot reject the plan entirely and risk alienating Mr Trump.

They will play for time and hope against all the evidence he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin and put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war, rather than force Ukraine to surrender instead.

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Eurovision to change voting rules after claims of Israeli government ‘interference’

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Eurovision to change voting rules after claims of Israeli government 'interference'

The Eurovision Song Contest is changing its voting system, following allegations of “interference” by Israel’s government this year.

Israeli singer Yuval Raphael received the largest number of votes from the public in the contest in May, ultimately finishing as runner-up after the jury votes were counted.

But a number of broadcasters raised concerns about Israel’s result.

After the final, Irish broadcaster RTE requested a breakdown in voting numbers from contest organiser the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), while Spain’s public broadcaster, Radio Television Espanola (RTVE), called for a “complete review” of the voting system to avoid “external interference”.

In September, Dutch public broadcaster AVROTROS said it could no longer justify Israel‘s participation in the contest, due to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

It went on to say there had been “proven interference by the Israeli government during the last edition of the Song Contest, with the event being used as a political instrument”. The statement did not elaborate on the means of “interference”.

Sky News has contacted the Israeli government for comment.

More on Eurovision

In early December, the EBU will hold its winter general assembly, with members due to consider the changes, and if not satisfied, vote on Israel’s participation.

Key changes to next year’s competition include:

• Clearer rules around promotion of artists and their songs
• Cap on audience voting halved
• The return of professional juries to semi-finals
• Enhanced security safeguards

Read more: Could Eurovision boycotts over Israel lead to a competition crisis?

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Will Eurovision boycott Israel?

Sanctions threat

The EBU said the tightening of rules around promotion was to “discourage disproportionate promotion campaigns… particularly when undertaken or supported by third parties, including governments or governmental agencies”.

It said that “any attempts to unduly influence the results will lead to sanctions”.

Contest director Martin Green said “no broadcaster or artist may now directly engage with or support campaigns by third parties – including governments or their agencies – that could distort the vote”.

He said the reduction in the number of votes that can be made online, or via SMS or phone call, from 20 to 10 was “designed to encourage more balanced participation”.

He said that “although the number of votes previously allowed did not unduly influence the results of previous contests, there were concerns expressed by participating broadcasters and fans alike”.

Professional juries in semi-finals – and younger jurors

It was also announced that professional juries in the semi-finals would be restored for the first time since 2022, with an expansion to the range of professions from which jurors can be chosen.

The EBU said this will give roughly 50-50 percentage weight between audience and jury votes.

At least two jurors aged 18-25 will be present in every jury, to reflect the appeal of the contest with younger audiences.

Also mentioned were enhanced technical safeguards designed to “protect the contest from suspicious or coordinated voting activity” and strengthen security systems that “monitor, detect and prevent fraudulent patterns”.

Politics making itself heard over Europop lyrics

Mr Green said that the neutrality and integrity of the competition is of “paramount importance” to the EBU, its members, and audiences, adding that the event “should remain a neutral space and must not be instrumentalised”.

Israel's 2024 representative, Eden Golan. Pic: AP
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Israel’s 2024 representative, Eden Golan. Pic: AP

A vocally apolitical event, world events have dominated Eurovision in recent years.

Russia was banned from the competition in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.

Israel has competed in Eurovision for more than 50 years and won four times, but there have been ongoing calls to block their participation over the conduct of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in the Hamas-Israel war.

Israel denies targeting civilians in Gaza and has said it is being unfairly demonised abroad.

In September, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Iceland, and Slovenia threatened to withdraw their participation in Eurovision unless Israel is excluded from the competition.

There were also demonstrations against Israel’s inclusion in Basel, Switzerland, when the 2025 competition took place.

‘Step in right direction’

Responding to the changes, Iceland’s official broadcaster RUV told Sky News they were “a step in the right direction”, and they would be discussing them with their “sister stations in the Nordic countries” ahead of the EBU meeting in December.

Ireland’s official broadcaster RTE told Sky News: “Clearly, events in the Middle East are unfolding day by day. As previously confirmed by the EBU, the issue of participation in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest has been included on the agenda of the EBU Executive Board’s ordinary Winter General Assembly.”

Sky News has also contacted the official broadcaster for the Netherlands (AVROTROS), Spain (RTVE), Slovenia (RTVSLO), and Israel (Kan) for comment.

The chief executive of Kan, Golan Yochpaz, has previously said the event should not become political and that there is “no reason” why Israel should not be part of it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Pic: Reuters

Netanyahu praised Israeli entrant

Earlier this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s 2025 Eurovision entrant Yuval Raphael she had brought the country “a lot of honour” after she finished in second place, adding “you’re the real winner. Statistically, it’s true… You entered the hearts of a huge portion of the public in Europe.”

The year before he told entrant Eden Golan: “I saw that you received almost the highest number of votes from the public and this is the most important thing, not from the judges but from the public, and you held Israel’s head up high in Europe.”

In October, a ceasefire deal was put in place, aimed at bringing an end to the two-year war in the Middle East.

The war began when Hamas stormed into Israel on October 7 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Israel invaded Gaza in retaliation, with airstrikes and ground assaults devastating much of the territory and killing more than 67,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants, but it says around half of those killed were women and children.

The world’s largest live music event, next year’s contest will be held in Vienna, Austria, in May and will celebrate 70 years of Eurovision.

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Gunmen kidnap more than 200 students from school in Nigeria

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Gunmen kidnap more than 200 students from school in Nigeria

Over 200 students have been kidnapped from a Catholic boarding school in western Nigeria – the second mass abduction in the country this week.

Gunmen took 215 students and 12 teachers from St Mary’s School in Agwara, Niger state, early on Friday, according to the Christian Association of Nigeria.

Daniel Atori, a spokesperson for the Niger state chapter of the association, said he met parents of the abducted children “to assure them that we are working with the government and security agencies to see that our children are rescued and brought back safely”.

St Mary’s is a secondary school that has students aged 12 to 17, but the institution is attached to an adjoining primary school with more than 50 classrooms and dormitory buildings.

Dauda Chekula, 62, said that four of his grandchildren, ranging in age from seven to 10, were among those abducted.

“We don’t know what is happening now, because we have not heard anything since this morning,” Mr Chekula said.

“The children who were able to escape have scattered, some of them ran back to their houses and the only information we are getting is that the attackers are still moving with the remaining children into the bush.”

On Monday, 25 schoolgirls were kidnapped from a boarding school in neighbouring Kebbi state, northwest Nigeria.

Police said men armed with rifles stormed the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in the town of Maga at around 4am local time (3am UK time), arriving on motorcycles in an apparently well-planned attack.

Student escapes from kidnappers

A 15-year-old student who was among those abducted from the boarding school in Kebbi state’s Danko-Wasagu area managed to escape.

She said she found refuge at a teacher’s house.

The Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in the town of Maga was attacked on Monday. Pic: AP
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The Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in the town of Maga was attacked on Monday. Pic: AP

Police at the school compound to investigate the kidnapping. Pic: Africa Independent Television/Reuters
Image:
Police at the school compound to investigate the kidnapping. Pic: Africa Independent Television/Reuters

It was not immediately clear who was to blame for either of the abductions.

Abubakar Usman, the secretary to the Niger state government, said in a statement that the latest kidnapping occurred despite a prior intelligence warning of heightened threats.

“Regrettably, St Mary’s School proceeded to reopen and resume academic activities without notifying or seeking clearance from the state government, thereby exposing pupils and the staff to avoidable risk,” it read.

A security staffer was “badly shot” during the early-morning attack on the school, the Catholic Diocese of Kontagora said.

Blood stains on the floor of the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School. Pic: AP
Image:
Blood stains on the floor of the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School. Pic: AP

Ransom demand for worshippers

Separately, gunmen attacked a church in Kwara state on Monday, killing at least two people.

A church official said 38 worshippers were also kidnapped by the gunmen, who have since issued a ransom demand of 100 million naira (£52,660) for each person.

Kebbi, Kwara and Niger states border one another.

Worshippers run for cover after hearing gunshots in Kwara state, Nigeria. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Worshippers run for cover after hearing gunshots in Kwara state, Nigeria. Pic: Reuters

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Europe cannot reject Trump’s peace plan

The attacks have highlighted insecurity in Nigeria and forced President Bola Tinubu to postpone foreign trips.

At least 1,500 students have been abducted in the region since Boko Haram extremists seized 276 Chibok schoolgirls more than a decade ago.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks in Niger and Kebbi state, but analysts say gangs often target schools in kidnappings for ransom.

Nigeria was recently thrust into the spotlight after Donald Trump singled the country out, claiming that Christians are being persecuted – an allegation that the government rejected.

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