TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.
President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.
Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.
The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.
Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.
With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.
“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.
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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.
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In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.
The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.
Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.
Image: Donald Trump and JD Vance. Pic: AP
Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.
Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.
The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.
There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.
He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.
Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.
Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.
Image: JD Vance wrote the bestseller Hillbilly Elegy based on his upbringing. Pic: Reuters
Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.
The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.
The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.
Image: Tim Walz during a campaign event in Minnesota in 2016. Pic: AP
This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.
Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.
This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.
As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.
As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.
Image: Pics: AP/Reuters
Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.
Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.
Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.
Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.
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1:29
Crowd chants ‘we’re not eating cats’
Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.
Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.
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An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.
On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.
Donald Trump has celebrated the 100th day of his second term with a campaign-style rally in Michigan.
During his 90-minute speech the US president mocked Joe Biden, falsely claimed he won the 2020 presidential election and defended his decision to impose tariffs on countries around the world.
Speaking in front of electronic screens reading “100 days of greatness”, Mr Trump attacked “radical left lunatics”, briefly took on a heckler and boasted about his administration’s “mass deportation” efforts.
“Removing the invaders is not just a campaign pledge,” he said. “It’s my solemn duty as commander-in-chief. I have an obligation to save our country.”
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He played a video of migrants his administration claims are gang members arriving at a notorious prison in El Salvador, with those in the crowd cheering the images of deportees having their heads shaved.
During his speech, during which he called up several of his top team to the stage, Mr Trump claimed his administration has delivered “most profound change in Washington in nearly 100 years”.
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3:04
100 days of Donald Trump
Mr Trump also briefly touched on tariffs, saying China, which is facing tariffs of 145%, “has taken more jobs from us than any country has ever taken from another country”.
Image: Pic: AP
But he said his tariffs did not mean Beijing and Washington cannot “get along” and said he thought a trade deal with China was near, adding: “But it’s going to be a fair deal.”
“I think it’s going to work out,” he says. “They want to make a deal. We’re going to make a deal. But it’s going to be a fair deal.”
Image: Donald Trump speaking in Michigan. Pic: AP
Image: Mr Trump dances at the end of his rally. Pic: Reuters
He claimed his administration had “already ended inflation”, but last month the Bureau of Labor Statistics said while inflation slowed in March over the past year, it had in fact risen 2.4%.
Mr Trump, who has frequently criticised Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell in recent weeks, said: “Interest rates came down, despite the fact that I have a Fed person who’s not really doing a good job, but I won’t say that. I want to be very nice. I want to be very nice and respectful to the Fed.
“You’re not supposed to criticise the Fed. You’re supposed to let him do his own thing. But I know much more than he does about interest rates, believe me.”
Mr Trump also defended his administration’s steep tariffs on cars and car parts, hours after he signed an executive order aimed at easing the impact of his tariffs on US carmakers.
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“We’re here tonight in the heartland of our nation to celebrate the most successful first 100 days of any administration in the history of our country,” Mr Trump said.
He later added: “We’ve just gotten started. You haven’t even seen anything yet.”
Getting beyond the West Wing and out of Washington has been harder. The volume of news has necessitated a near-constant presence in the US capital.
Every single day, there has been something. Of course, this has been entirely intentional for the president and his team of proud disrupters.
They pledged to govern differently, and on that promise, they have more than delivered.
To fix America, Donald Trump first had to convince people that it is broken. Many didn’t need convincing. Look for decline here and you’ll easily find it; communities left behind.
Look for bureaucracy and waste – you’ll find that too. Common sense silenced by wokism? Many can relate to that. Immigration out of control? Politicians have been struggling with that for decades.
In just 100 days, Mr Trump has harnessed all of that into a package of change that feels like nothing short of a revolution.
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Despite the tsunami of news, my colleagues and I have managed to escape from the White House. And it is there, beyond Washington, that the more subtle but no less profound changes to the fabric of this nation can be felt.
Whether it be innocuous tattoos that might now be associated with gang membership, free speech opinions penned on social media, or the willingness just to chat about politics, one startling thing I have observed these past 100 days is a growing sense of fear.
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23:32
Does Trump really ‘run the country and the world?’
A passion for politics
Anyone who has worked as a foreign correspondent in America will tell you that Americans love to give their opinion on politics. And they do it, always, with word-perfect articulation. There is no better place in the world for a ‘voxpop’.
There is a passion for politics that I haven’t seen anywhere else I’ve lived and worked. Until now. Over these past 100 days, I have increasingly found a reticence that reflects an America changed by this president and his style.
I’m in Detroit at the moment, in Michigan, the battleground state that helped to deliver Donald Trump the presidency back in November. I was here back then, too, and recall the enthusiasm with which people would discuss the upcoming election. There was enthusiasm for Trump and enthusiasm for Harris.
An indictment of the times
Now the response to my questions is, so often, “no thanks, I’d rather not”. Sometimes people ask where the report will be seen. “Will it be on in America?” Think about it – this is America. What an indictment of the times, that people fear offering their opinion – whatever side of the aisle they sit.
Very often, it’s businesses that are extremely cautious of being associated with one political view or another. Such is the animosity now between the two sides.
After a day of perseverance in Detroit this week, a few folk did talk to us. Their answers were revealing.
In a park, I met Marie Freeman who said people are now “more angry”. Her view is that America has lost something over these past 100 days.
“I definitely want us to move forward in a positive, more empathetic way. I think with Trump being such a hardcore president, we lose the empathy, we lose the grace for our fellow neighbours. We’re all so angry because we’re under angry leadership. And that’s not good.”
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She articulated a vibe which I recognise in so many parts of this country right now. A lack of grace and empathy.
Yet, yards away, a couple walking their cats stopped to chat. I asked how they would rate these past 100 days. Two tens out of ten for Trump’s performance.
The Ukrainian president said the meeting ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral could end up being “historic.” Hours later, Mr Trump questioned Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace in a Truth Social post.
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2:49
From Saturday: Trump meets Zelenskyy at funeral
Speaking before boarding Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump again said the meeting went well, and that the Ukrainianleader was “calmer”.
“I think he understands the picture, I think he wants to make a deal,” he said, before turning to Mr Putin and Russia.
“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” the US president said, adding he was “very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places (including Kyiv, where nine people were killed in a Russian airstrike on Friday) after discussions”.
However, Mr Trump said he thinks Mr Zelenskyy is ready to give up Crimea, which the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly said he would refuse to do.
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He added that “we’ll see what happens in the next few days” and said “don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea”.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, while Barack Obama was president.
Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that a peace deal to end the war was “closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years, but it’s still not there”.
“If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago,” he added on the Meet the Press show.
It comes after North Korea confirmed it had deployed troops to fight for Russia, months after Ukraine and Western officials said its forces were in Europe.
State media outlet KCNA reported North Korean soldiers made an “important contribution” to expelling Ukrainian forces from Russian territory, likely to be the Kursk region.
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KCNA said leader Kim Jong Un made the decision to deploy troops to Russia and notified Moscow, and quoted him as saying: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honour of the motherland.”
It also quoted the country’s ruling Workers’ Party as saying the end of the battle to liberate Kursk showed the “highest strategic level of the firm militant friendship” between North Korea and Russia.
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1:26
From June 2024: Putin drives Kim around in luxury limo during state visit
The North Korean leader promised at the time “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine”.