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Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members.

The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom Tugendhat faces a bigger hurdle than the rest.

The main shift in six weeks has been Ms Badenoch losing her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the first poll of the people who will decide the next Tory leader since the field was reduced to four candidates.

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Tory members opted for Ms Badenoch by 59% to Mr Jenrick’s 41% six weeks ago – an 18-point lead – if the pair were head to head in the final round.

Now they would choose Ms Badenoch by 52% to Mr Jenrick’s 48%, only a four-point lead, according to the new Sky News poll of 802 Tory members conducted over nine days to Sunday night.

Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick came out as the top two in the contest after the early rounds of voting. Next week, MPs will reduce the number of contenders to two.

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Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media at the Conservative Party Conference.
Pic: Reuters
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Ms Badenoch has lost her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the latest poll. Pic: Reuters

Mr Jenrick’s campaign believes they have more chance of winning without Ms Badenoch in the final, while either James Cleverly or Mr Tugendhat are only likely to get in the race if she is eliminated.

One of the candidates representing the more moderate, one nation wing of the party could yet win the contest.

The polls show Mr Cleverly trailing Mr Jenrick by just four points in the final round. If they are head to head, Mr Jenrick gets 52% and Mr Cleverly 48%. Against Ms Badenoch, the gap is slightly bigger – eight points – with her on 54% and him on 46%.

Mr Tugendhat fares the worst in the final round, according to the polling. He would lose to both Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick 58% to 42% – by 16 points.

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Kemi Badenoch hits back at claims she would means test pensions triple lock

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Kemi Badenoch hits back at claims she would means test pensions triple lock

Kemi Badenoch has denied the Conservatives would consider means testing the pensions triple lock, as she accused her opponents of trying to “scare people”.

The Tory leader sought to clarify remarks she made on LBC on Thursday evening, which were interpreted as her leaving the door open to means testing the system that guarantees the state pension rises in line with average earnings, inflation or 2.5% – whichever is highest.

The Conservatives have long championed the triple lock – introduced by former chancellor George Osborne during the coalition government – but some senior Conservatives have recently hinted that it might not be sustainable in the long term.

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Ms Badenoch told LBC her party would look at “means testing” – something she said “we don’t do properly here” – in response to a question about the triple lock.

Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK were quick to seize on Ms Badenoch’s comments, claiming the Tory leader would “cut your state pension”.

However, the Tory leader posted on X that she was referring to means testing generally rather than with specific regards to the triple lock.

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Amanda Akass is a politics and business correspondent

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

From criticising “excessive” maternity pay to describing herself as becoming “working class” while working at McDonald’s – not to mention slamming sandwiches as “not real food” (compared to a desktop steak), Kemi Badenoch is never one to shy away from controversy.

Supporters argue this straight-talking directness is a key part of her appeal. But it also gets her into trouble.

On an LBC phone-in last night she was asked what she wanted to do for younger voters fed up with the triple lock on state pensions (which means they go up every year by 2.5%, inflation, or average earnings – whichever is higher).

Her response was to suggest “we’re going to look at means testing” as “we don’t have a system that knows who should get what”.

The idea that the Tories might not be religiously committed to a universal triple lock has led to a political pile-on.

It’s unclear what exactly means testing the triple lock would work in practice; it’s clearly not a developed policy yet (indeed, Ms Badenoch argues the party shouldn’t be focused on specific policies so soon after their drubbing at the last election).

Politicians on all sides have criticised the triple lock before, with the shadow chancellor Mel Stride previously describing it as “unsustainable” and the new pensions minister Torsten Bell as “messy” in his previous role at the Resolution Foundation thinktank.

But Labour are adamant that they would never abandon the triple lock.

Somehow, the Conservative attack on the government’s treatment of pensioners over the winter fuel allowance has become a big question mark over the Tories’ commitment to a promise which has become totemic with many of their core voters.

“Labour punished poor pensioners, snatching away winter fuel payments due to poor means testing,” she said.

“We need better mechanisms, not proxies like pension credit or free school meals. So why are Labour, Reform, and Lib Dems pretending we’re cancelling the triple lock? They’re scared.”

She continued: “In the clip attached, I say ‘no’ to looking at the triple lock.

“But we do need to deliver better means testing. Big tech and supermarkets know more than the government about its citizens. It’s time to change the system for the better. Let’s do this for the next generation.”

On Friday morning, Nigel Huddleston, the Tory party’s co-chair, defended Ms Badenoch and said means testing was very different to scrapping it all together.

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Speaking to Matt Barbet on Sky News Breakfast, Mr Huddleston said: “What Kemi said yesterday in answer to the triple lock… the first word out of her mouth was ‘no’.

“What she talked about yesterday in an interview was about means testing, and this is something she has commented on before, in the context of, for example, winter fuel.

“And she said, look, millionaires probably shouldn’t get it. Millionaires, not millions of pensioners – millionaires.

“We probably do need to look at means testing at some of those levels, and I don’t think many viewers would disagree with that.”

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Dan Tapiero predicts $10T crypto market by 2025, driven by US pro-business policies

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Dan Tapiero predicts T crypto market by 2025, driven by US pro-business policies

Macro investor and asset manager Dan Tapiero explains how Trump’s policies and the DOGE initiative might fuel explosive crypto growth.

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Crypto execs plan Trump inauguration attendance — at a steep price

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Crypto execs plan Trump inauguration attendance — at a steep price

Some industry insiders who spent millions to support the US president-elect’s party and fund his inauguration will likely have a good view of the Capitol Building on Jan. 20.

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