Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members.
The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom Tugendhat faces a bigger hurdle than the rest.
The main shift in six weeks has been Ms Badenoch losing her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the first poll of the people who will decide the next Tory leader since the field was reduced to four candidates.
Tory members opted for Ms Badenoch by 59% to Mr Jenrick’s 41% six weeks ago – an 18-point lead – if the pair were head to head in the final round.
Now they would choose Ms Badenoch by 52% to Mr Jenrick’s 48%, only a four-point lead, according to the new Sky News poll of 802 Tory members conducted over nine days to Sunday night.
Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick came out as the top two in the contest after the early rounds of voting. Next week, MPs will reduce the number of contenders to two.
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At the Conservative Party conference, rival campaigns have been targeting Ms Badenoch by seizing her remarks about maternity pay.
Mr Jenrick’s campaign believes they have more chance of winning without Ms Badenoch in the final, while either James Cleverly or Mr Tugendhat are only likely to get in the race if she is eliminated.
One of the candidates representing the more moderate, one nation wing of the party could yet win the contest.
The polls show Mr Cleverly trailing Mr Jenrick by just four points in the final round. If they are head to head, Mr Jenrick gets 52% and Mr Cleverly 48%. Against Ms Badenoch, the gap is slightly bigger – eight points – with her on 54% and him on 46%.
Mr Tugendhat fares the worst in the final round, according to the polling. He would lose to both Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick 58% to 42% – by 16 points.
An increase in university tuition fees in England is expected to be announced for the first time in more than seven years, Sky News understands.
Fees have been frozen at an annual level of £9,250 since the 2017/18 academic year, but the government is expected to lift the cap so they can rise in line with inflation.
That will increase the cost of tuition to £9,500 in October 2025 and £10,500 by 2029.
It’s expected that Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will confirm the move in a House of Commons statement later today.
Any such announcement is likely to provoke a strong backlash, given Sir Keir Starmer had pledged to abolish tuition fees when he stood to be Labour leader in 2020.
The prime minister rowed back on that promise early last year, saying it was no longer affordable because of the “different financial situation” the country was in, and he was choosing to prioritise the NHS.
However at the time he said Labour would set out a “fairer solution” for students if it won the election.
The change comes as universities have been dealing with a funding crisis, largely driven by a huge drop in overseas students.
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Rules brought in by Rishi Sunak’s government made it harder for international students, who pay higher fees than British ones, to bring their families with them to the UK.
Universities have been pleading for more investment, but Ms Phillipson said recently that institutes should seek to manage their own budgets before hoping for a bailout from the taxpayer.
When she was in opposition, she also touted the idea of reducing the monthly repayments “for every single graduate” by changing how the loan is paid back.
Writing in The Times in June 2023 she had said: “Reworking the present system gives scope for a month-on-month tax cut for graduates, putting money back in people’s pockets when they most need it.”
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However the idea didn’t make it into Labour’s 2024 manifesto, which only says that “the current higher education funding settlement does not work for the taxpayer, universities, staff, or students”.
It adds: “Labour will act to create a secure future for higher education and the opportunities it creates across the UK.”
Independent MP Zara Sultana, who lost the Labour whip after rebelling over the two-child benefit cap, called the latest development “wrong”.
“It’s time to abolish tuition fees and cancel student debt because education is a public good, not a commodity,” she posted on X.
‘Maintenance loans bigger issue’
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However, money saving expert Martin Lewis said higher fees won’t necessarily lead to students facing higher yearly repayments, as that “solely depends on what you earn not on what you borrow”.
In a thread on X he said a more damaging policy was the Tories’ decision last year to drop the salary threshold at which repayments must be made – from £27,000 to £25,000 – and increase the time to clear the loan before it is written off, from 30 to 40 years.
He said: “Increasing tuition fees will only see those who clear the loan in full over the 40yrs pay more. That is generally mid-high to higher earning university leavers only, so the cost of increasing them will generally be born by the more affluent.”
He added that a bigger problem for students is the fact maintenance loans “aren’t big enough” and “have not kept pace with inflation”.
University fees of £1,000 per year were first introduced by the Labour government in 1998, going up to £3,000 in 2006.
The Coalition government then tripled the amount to £9,000 in 2012, sparking a huge backlash, particularly against the Lib Dems who had vowed to scrap fees in the 2010 general election campaign.
Since then there have been further changes to student finance such as the abolition of maintenance grants and NHS bursaries, moving student support increasingly away from non-repayable grants and towards loans.
Another £75m will go towards “smashing the gangs” as the government beefs up its new Border Security Command unit.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is set to announce the additional funding as he hosts the Interpol general assembly in Glasgow from today, the first time the UK has hosted it in more than 50 years.
The announcement, which kicks off a week-long blitz by Sir Keir on people smuggling, will bring total funding over the next two years to £150m for the Border Security Command (BSC) set up by the Labour government to “smash the gangs” – a new slogan introduced during the election campaign.
The new £75m will go towards National Crime Agency (NCA) technology so agents can exploit data and “boost collaboration” with other European countries to “investigate and break people smuggling networks”.
It will also fund 300 border security command staff and 100 NCA specialist investigators and intelligence officers who will be dedicated to catching criminals facilitating people smuggling.
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The Crown Prosecution Service’s (CPS) ability to deliver charging decisions more quickly on international organised crime cases will also be funded by it.
Sir Keir is expected to tell senior ministers and policing leads from Interpol’s 196 member states: “The world needs to wake up to the severity of this challenge.
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“I was elected to deliver security for the British people. And strong borders are a part of that. But security doesn’t stop at our borders.
“There’s nothing progressive about turning a blind eye as men, women and children die in the Channel.
“This is a vile trade that must be stamped out – wherever it thrives. So we’re taking our approach to counter-terrorism – which we know works, and applying it to the gangs, with our new Border Security Command.
“We’re ending the fragmentation between policing, Border Force and our intelligence agencies.”
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0:59
Migrant tells Sky about crossing the channel
The government announced in the King’s Speech it will introduce the border security, asylum and immigration bill as it tries to tackle the issue of illegal immigrants coming into the UK, especially on small boats.
It will be the fourth piece of immigration legislation since 2022 as both the former Conservative government and current Labour government attempt to tackle the issue.
Appearing on Sky News this morning, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would not be drawn on how soon the number of small boat crossings could fall as a result of the funding.
She said the prime minister has made clear “we want to see significant progress made”, but the government needs partnerships with other countries and “that’s what we’re working on”.
Asked if French authorities could be doing more to stop the departures, she said more can be done through all European countries “along the supply chain” and the UK “has to be in partnership with those countries”.
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Over the first two days of November, 433 people arrived in the UK via small boats.
In total, 31,904 people have made the journey so far this year, up 16.5% on the same point in 2023 (26,699) but still down 22.1% on the same point in 2022 (39,929).
Later this week, Sir Keir is expected to attend a summit of the European Political Community in Hungary, with migration and people smuggling expected to feature.
The PM will also announce a £6m increase in the UK’s support for Interpol to tackle global organised crime, and £24m to tackle serious international crime affecting the UK, particularly in the Western Balkans.
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7:16
Why immigration isn’t being reduced
A Conservative Party spokesperson said: “Keir Starmer’s announcement on tackling gangs will mean absolutely nothing without a deterrent to stop migrants wishing to make the dangerous journey across the Channel.
“It is a shame that Starmer has not recognised the extent of the crisis in the Channel sooner, as he and the Labour Party voted against numerous measures to stop the gangs while they were in opposition.
“If Starmer continues to ignore the need for a deterrent to stop migrants crossing the Channel, there will be more deaths in the Channel as more and more migrants continue to cross it. He needs to get a grip of the crisis in the Channel.”