Huge shift in interest rate predictions as Bank of England chief says cuts could be more ‘aggressive’

Published

1 month ago

October 3, 2024

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Financial markets are now pricing in a shock interest rate cut for the UK at the next Bank of England meeting following remarks by its governor.

There was a huge shift in expectations after Andrew Bailey told the Guardian that the bank could be “a bit more aggressive” in its approach.

He talked about inflation pressures being less persistent than expected but tempered his comments by saying that its main indicators on the pace of price growth would need to continue to fall.

Money latest: The great second home sell-off?

Mr Bailey also worried about the potential threat to prices from oil costs, given events in the Middle East. “Geopolitical concerns are very serious”.

“It’s tragic what’s going on”, he said of the escalation involving Israel and Iran’s proxies.

“There are obviously stresses and the real issue then is how they might interact with some still quite stretched markets in places.”

He said there appeared to be “a strong commitment to keep the [oil] market stable” but “there’s a point beyond which that control could break down if things got really bad”.

“You have to continuously watch this thing, because it could go wrong,” he concluded.

Oil costs have remained relatively stable this week despite worries over the potential threat to supplies in the event of a war between Israel and Iran.

Despite the caveats from Mr Bailey, 98% of market bets were on a rate cut of 0.25 percentage points for the Bank’s meeting on 7 November. Most also saw a further cut coming in December.

Ahead of Thursday’s market open, a majority of investors had expected no change to the rate until December, given sticky elements from services inflation and continuing pressure from the pace of wage rises in the economy.

The Bank had warned in August that it would take a data-driven approach to cuts beyond the quarter point reduction it introduced at that time.

The Bank rate was held at 5% at September’s meeting.

August’s decline marked the first downwards move to borrowing costs since the Bank began hiking rates aggressively in December 2021.

The rises were initially a response to the price growth seen as the economy re-opened following COVID restrictions but inflation soon soared when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked the energy-driven cost of living crisis.

Market hopes of a reduction as soon as the next meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee could help fixed rate mortgage costs ease further and more quickly.

The shift in rate cut expectations meant that the pound’s winning run of 2024 found a reverse gear.

Sterling was a cent and a half down against the US dollar and a cent lower versus the euro to stand at $1.31 and just under €1.19 respectively.

Higher interest rates tend to be supportive of a domestic currency.

The pound’s decline was also aided by closely-watched business survey data that showed a decline in the pace of price growth being passed on in the services sector – bolstering Mr Bailey’s rate cut case.

The FTSE 100 opened 0.2% up, with the weaker pound boosting constituents who make money abroad, as those revenues are worth more when booked back in the UK.

Housebuilders were also among those to benefit as the prospect of lower interest rates will encourage buyers on affordability grounds.

Business

Vodafone and Three merger could get green light, says UK’s competition watchdog

Published

3 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Vodafone and Three merger could get green light, says UK's competition watchdog

A £15bn merger between two of the UK’s biggest mobile networks could get the green light – if they stick to their commitments to invest in the country’s infrastructure, the competition watchdog has said.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said the merger of Vodafone and Three had “the potential to be pro-competitive for the UK mobile sector”.

Announced last year, the proposed £15bn merger would bring 27 million customers together under a single provider.

The watchdog previously warned that tens of millions of mobile phone users could end up paying more if the merger went ahead.

However, the two groups recently set out plans to protect consumer pricing and boost network investment.

The CMA has now laid out a list of “remedies” required for the deal to go-ahead.

They include the networks committing to freezing certain tariffs and data plans for at least three years to protect customers from short-term price rises in the early years of the network plan.

Stuart McIntosh, chair of the inquiry group leading the investigation, said on Tuesday: “We believe this deal has the potential to be pro-competitive for the UK mobile sector if our concerns are addressed.

“Our provisional view is that binding commitments combined with short-term protections for consumers and wholesale providers would address our concerns while preserving the benefits of this merger.

“A legally binding network commitment would boost competition in the longer term and the additional measures would protect consumers and wholesale customers while the network upgrades are being rolled out.”

Today’s announcement is provisional, with a final decision due before 7 December. The inquiry group is inviting feedback on today’s announcement by 5pm on 12 November.

The CMA also published a list of potential solutions – which it called remedies – to issues it identified with the merger.

If the networks want the merger to go ahead, the watchdog requires Vodafone and Three to:

• Deliver a joint network plan to set out network upgrades and improvements over eight years;

• Commit to keeping certain existing tariff costs and data plans for at least three years to protect customers from price hikes;

• Commit to pre-agreed prices and contract terms so Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) – mobile providers that do not own the networks they operate on – can obtain competitive wholesale deals.

Vodafone and Three are two of the biggest mobile firms in the UK, and their networks support a number of MVNOs including Asda Mobile, Lebara, Voxi, and Smarty.

Responding to the watchdog’s announcement, a spokesperson for Vodafone on behalf of the merger said: “The merger will be a catalyst for positive change.

“It will bring significant benefits to businesses and consumers throughout the UK, and it will bring advanced 5G to every school and hospital across the country.

“The merger is also closely aligned with the government’s mission to drive growth and to encourage more private investment in the UK.”

Earlier this year, Three’s chief executive hit out at the UK’s “abysmal” 5G speeds and availability as he urged regulators to approve the company’s merger with Vodafone.

Robert Finnegan noted his firm’s “cash flows have been negative since 2020 and our costs have almost doubled in five years, meaning investment in [the] network is unsustainable”.

“UK mobile networks rank an abysmal 22nd out of 25 in Europe on 5G speeds and availability, with the dysfunctional structure of the market denying us the ability to invest sustainably to fix this situation,” he added.

Business

Bosses rail at business secretary over ‘avalanche of costs’

Published

18 hours ago

November 4, 2024

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Bosses rail at business secretary over 'avalanche of costs'

Business leaders expressed frustration with ministers on Monday amid a growing budget backlash that bosses said would trigger an “avalanche of costs” and leave them with no choice but to slash investment and increase prices.

Sky News has learnt that bosses of large retail and hospitality companies and trade associations told Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, that last week’s budget risked damaging consumer confidence and exacerbating challenges facing the UK economy.

Among the dozens of companies represented on the call are said to have been Burger King UK, Fuller Smith & Turner, Greene King, Kingfisher and the supermarket chain Morrisons.

Mr Reynolds is said to have acknowledged that Rachel Reeves‘s inaugural fiscal statement had “asked a lot” of British business, with James Murray, the financial secretary to the Treasury, understood to have described it as “a once-in-a-generation budget”, according to several people briefed on the call.

One insider said that Nick Mackenzie, the chief executive of Greene King, had highlighted that the increase in employers’ national insurance (NI) contributions would cause “a £20m shock” to the company, while Fullers is understood to have warned that it would be forced to halve annual investment from £60m to £30m as a result of increased cost pressures.

Rami Baitieh, the Morrisons chief executive, told Mr Reynolds that the budget had exacerbated “an avalanche of costs” for businesses next year, and asked what the government could do to mitigate them.

Sources added that the CBI, the employers’ group, said its impact would be “severe”, while the British Beer & Pub Association added that there was now a disincentive to invest and flagged “a tsunami” of higher costs.

The range of comments on the call with ministers underlines the scale of discontent in the private sector about Labour’s first budget for nearly 15 years.

Only a small number of interventions during the discussion are said to have been in support of measures announced last week, with the Federation of Small Businesses understood to have praised the doubling of the employment allowance, which would see many of the smallest employers having their NI bills cut by £2,000.

The Department for Business and Trade has been contacted for comment, while none of the companies contacted by Sky News would comment.

Business

Retail giants face food price hikes dilemma after budget

Published

22 hours ago

November 4, 2024

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Retail giants face food price hikes dilemma after budget

Two of Britain’s biggest food retailers will this week face pressure to publicly disclose whether they expect a fresh spike in prices next year as the industry grapples with huge tax hikes imposed in last week’s budget.

Sky News understands that Marks & Spencer (M&S), which will unveil half-year earnings on Wednesday, and J Sainsbury, which reports interim results the following day, are collectively facing an additional bill of close to £200m as a result of changes to employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.

Industry sources said the pressure on pricing would be “intense” given the thin margins on which the big supermarkets already operate.

“Food price increases from next April are inevitable,” said one.

The warning comes a day after Ms Reeves told Sky News that “businesses will now have to make a choice, whether they will absorb that through efficiency and productivity gains, whether it will be through lower profits or perhaps through lower wage growth”.

Pointedly, she did not highlight the prospect of higher prices at the tills, with some retailers now weighing whether to explicitly blame the government for impending price increases – a move which will trigger renewed inflation in the UK economy.

The grocery industry is expected to be among the hardest-hit by the changes to employer NICs, particularly after the chancellor slashed the threshold at which businesses become liable for it to just £5,000.

Tens of thousands of people employed part-time in the sector earn between that sum and the current threshold of £9,100.

The first major retailer to report financial results since the budget will be Primark’s parent, Associated British Foods (ABF), on Tuesday.

Insiders downplayed the risks of price hikes from Primark given its track record of absorbing inflationary pressures without passing them on to consumers.

ABF’s additional employer NICs bill is expected to be in the region of £25m, according to one analyst.

Overall, the retail sector could end up paying billions of pounds of additional tax given the scale of its workforce.

Ms Reeves has vowed to raise £25bn extra annually from the changes to employer NICs.

In addition to that, the rise in the national living wage will add a further burden to the financial pressures facing the retail industry.

Prior to the budget, Stuart Machin, the M&S chief executive, urged the chancellor not to increase taxes on it, calling them “a short-term, easy fix”.

“When I hear about plans to increase national insurance, a tax with no link to profit which hits bigger employers like us and our smaller suppliers, I’m concerned.

“The chancellor was right in the past to call national insurance a tax on workers.”

Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, will hold talks with British business leaders later on Monday about the impact of the budget.

A number of executives will be given the opportunity to ask questions on a call in which more than 100 companies are expected to be represented, although one boss who is critical of many of the budget measures said they were likely to be prevented from voicing their concerns publicly on the call.

ABF, M&S and Sainsbury’s all declined to comment.