Oil market faces a rude awakening if Iran’s energy infrastructure is targeted, analysts say
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.
Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.
“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.
Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images
“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.
“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.
Energy market complacency?
Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.
“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.
She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.
“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”
The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.
Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.
“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”
“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.
“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.
MINI has partnered with lifestyle brand, Deus Ex Machina, to develop this. It’s called the Skeg, and it’s a high-performance, racing-inspired electric concept car that’s sure to lighten the mood – by shedding fully 15% of its mass in the quest for speed.
One of a pair of exclusive, one-off concepts based on MINI’s John Cooper Works cars. The Deus Ex Machina Skeg celebrates MINI’s storied racing history with what the company calls, “a clean, minimal, and quiet rebellion,” that draws on materials, technologies, and philosophies from the world of surfing.
The electric MINI JCW Skeg is stripped to its essentials, with much of the steel and aluminum bits replaced with lightweight fiberglass to maximize acceleration while driving the minimalist aesthetic home. The end result weighs 15% less than the standard car – but makes the same stout 190 kW (258 hp) as the production car.
Surf’s up
The interior is stripped back to the barest essentials, reflecting BMW’s vision of a surf culture that prioritizes function over form. MINI claims the end result resembles a mobile surf shop, with fiberglass trays for wetsuits, specially shaped bins, neoprene seats, and other touches that “bring the surf culture into the interior.”
For their part, the BMW and MINI styling team seems pretty proud of its minimalistic electric endeavor. “In this extraordinary collaboration … every single detail has been crafted with artisanal precision and expertise,” says Holger Hampf, Head of MINI Design. “This has resulted in unique characters that are clearly perceived as belonging together through their distinctive design language and use of graphics.”
The concept retains the production version’s 54.2 kWh li-ion battery pack, up to 250 of WLTP range with the production aero kit, sprints from 0-100 km (62 mph) in just 5.9 seconds. With 15% less mass, though, that should jump to more than 255 miles, with 0-60 times dropping below 5.5 seconds.
I dig it – but I’d skip the surf bits and just appreciate the raw composite, minimalist interior look for what it is. Take a look at the image gallery, below, then let us know what you think of MINI’s Skeg concept in the comments.
MINI Skeg concept | gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: BMW MINI.
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Environment
Volvo Penta teams up with e-power to equip Boels with next-gen Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
Veteran marine and industrial power solutions company Volvo Penta has joined forces with energy solutions provider e-power to build battery energy storage systems (BESS). Volvo Penta’s battery systems for energy storage will power BESS units built by e-power that can be catered to a range of applications, most notably construction rental clients like Boels Rentals in Europe.
Volvo Penta is a provider of sustainable power solutions that currently serves land and sea applications under the Volvo Group umbrella. As more and more of the world goes all-electric, the global manufacturer has also adapted, sharing cultural values with Volvo Group to engineer new and innovative sustainable power solutions.
Nearly 100 years later, Volvo Penta remains an industry leader in marine propulsion systems and industrial engines. As more and more of the world goes all-electric, the Swedish manufacturer has also adapted, sharing cultural values with Volvo Group to engineer new and innovative sustainable power solutions.
For example, all Volvo Penta diesel engines now run on hydro-treated vegetable oil (HVO), reducing well-to-wheel emissions by up to 90% across the marine and industrial power industries. On the zero-emissions side, Volvo Penta has expressed its dedication to fossil-free power solutions, including battery electric components to serve heavy-duty applications such as terminal tractors, forklifts, drill rigs, and feed mixers, to name a few.
To leverage its battery electric value chain, Volvo Penta has also ventured into battery systems for energy storage (or BESS subsystems). These energy-dense, purpose-built BESS subsystems can provide portable, sustainable energy for all-electric charging and reduce grid dependency.
Volvo Penta to deploy battery systems for energy storage
Volvo Penta recently announced a strategic partnership with e-power, a Belgian power solutions provider. Together, Volvo Penta and e-power will develop a scalable Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) for Boels Rental.
The collaboration continues a long-standing partnership between all three companies. Boels – one of the largest construction rental companies is a long-time customer of e-power generators that utilize Volvo Penta engines. As the company shifts toward electrification and sustainability, it will again turn to those companies to deliver reliable performance.
Volvo Penta’s BESS subsystem comprises battery packs, a Battery Management System (BMS), DC/DC converters, and thermal management, combining to offer a compact, high-density, and transport-friendly solution optimized for rental operations. The company shared that this BESS design is integration-ready, enabling other OEMs like e-power to adapt and scale systems to customer-specific needs. Per e-power business support director, Jens Fets:
We’ve built our reputation on reliability and efficient power systems. Working again with Volvo Penta, this time on battery energy storage, allows us to meet the growing demand for energy in a silent, low-emissions, compact and mobile design—especially in rental applications.
The deployment of these new battery energy storage systems will help Boels cater to its customers’ growing demand for clean, silent, and mobile energy solutions in construction and other industrial applications.
Aside from being more quickly adaptable to customer needs, Volvo Penta says its BESS architecture marks an overall shift in rental power systems. This is welcome news for all who support a cleaner, more sustainable future across all industries.
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That didn’t take long! Just a few hours after Mercedes revealed the screen-heavy interior of its upcoming 2026 GLC EV, photos of the new crossover’s exterior – and that controversial grille! – leaked on Instagram and Reddit. We’ve got them here.
Two days ahead of the GLC EV’s officially schedule global debut, images that reportedly show the new 2026 Mercedes undisguised have leaked on Instagram and Reddit. They show the blocky new light-up grille on the nose of a very smooth, jellybean-like crossover shape that, despite Mercedes’ insistence that it’s moving away from the EQ series’ design language, looks an awful lot like an EQ Mercedes.
Check out the leaked images from kindleauto’s Instagram account, below, and see if you agree with that assessment.
If you need to see more before you feel comfortable commenting on the new SUV’s looks, there’s a few more angles over on the r/mercedes_benz subreddit.
Leaked exterior pictures of the upcoming GLC EV
byu/Quick_Coyote_7649 inmercedes_benz
As with everything else on the internet, take those unofficial images with a grain of salt and maybe wait until the GLC EV’s official reveal in a few days’ time before casting your final vote on the new look – but there’s very little reason to believe the new Mercedes will look terribly different from what you see here.
Will the new grille and tech-forward interior with its massive, 39″ screen and MB.OS software be enough to turn the tide for Mercedes-Benz, enabling it to finally gain some traction in the electric crossover market? That remains to be seen, but the recently updated Tesla Model Y and crisply-styled new BMW iX3 with its 500 miles of range will make it an uphill battle, for sure.
We got a sneak peek at the new GLC back in July, when Mercedes-Benz Group CEO, Ola Källenius said that, “We’re not just introducing a new model – we’re electrifying our top seller.” Back then, we learned that the new GLC EV would have a wheelbase 3.1″ longer than the current ICE-powered model, as well as more head- and leg-room for its occupants and an extra 4.5 cubic feet (for 61.4 total) of cargo space.
Källenius also promised an innovative new 800V electric architecture and the latest battery tech, which will enable the electric GLC to add around 260 km (~160 miles) of WLTP range in just ten minutes thanks to more than 300 kW of charging capability.
SOURCES | IMAGES: kindleauto; Quick_Coyote_7649.
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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