Why oil prices haven’t skyrocketed on Middle East supply fears — yet
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what’s at stake.
Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It’s estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities.
Goldman Sachs says a sustained fall in Iranian output could send oil prices up $20 a barrel, while Swedish bank SEB has warned that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel in an extreme scenario.
For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.
“There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don’t like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year,” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it’s not great but now you have [China’s] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,” Currie said.
“On top of that, we’ve thrown in potential conflict in the Middle East that could take out some energy facilities, so the near-term outlook is positive, which is why the front of the curve is strong, but it is being weighed down on the back end over the fears of this big oil supply glut,” he added.
The market is backwardated, or in backwardation, when the futures price of oil is below the spot price. The opposite structure is known as contango.
‘The market is so short’
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, echoed Currie’s view.
“The market is so short. We’ve never seen these levels of record shorts before,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
Many oil traders appear to have taken a bearish position on the belief that China’s stimulus rally will fail to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, Sen said, adding that market participants also tend to expect OPEC and non-OPEC allies to boost oil production later in the year.
“The market has just gotten itself into this fit of around bearishness but that’s why if it goes, we could be above $80 very quickly,” Sen said.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.8% higher at $78.26 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $74.34, up 0.8% for the session.
Fundamentals ‘anything but encouraging’
Oil’s biggest move this week came on Thursday, when prices popped more than 5% following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden over a possible retaliatory move from Israel following Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier in the week.
Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”
CNBC has reached out to the White House for further comment.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns.
“This is why oil is stable-to-higher, equities are weakening, and the dollar is strong. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted,” he added.
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
“Under this scenario underlying fundamentals will become the driving force again and these fundamentals are anything but encouraging,” Varga said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, Bushehr province, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said that oil prices were surprisingly steady given the high stakes.
“I think it is definitely a little bit about short covering, but [the price rally] is surprisingly weak … given the scenarios that might play out in the Middle East,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
Schieldrop said Brent crude prices had largely traded between $80 to $85 for around 18 months or so, before dipping below $70 in September. He described the oil contract’s recent move higher as “very meager,” especially given the “potentially devastating scenarios in the Middle East.”
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
The Mockingbird Solar Center, Ørsted’s largest solar project globally, is now online, next to protected prairie donated by the renewable energy giant.
This massive 468-megawatt (MW) solar farm is set to power 80,000 homes and businesses, providing a major boost to the Texas grid.
But the launch of Mockingbird Solar isn’t just about clean energy – it’s also about restoring precious ecosystems. Ørsted has donated 953 acres of the Smiley-Woodfin Native Prairie Grassland, which sits next to the solar center, to The Nature Conservancy. The donated land is now the Smiley Meadow Preserve, a protected area for tallgrass prairie that’s home to more than 400 species of grasses and wildflowers.
Tallgrass prairies are some of the rarest ecosystems in the US, with less than 1% of Texas’ original tallgrass prairies still in existence. Tallgrass prairie does a lot of heavy lifting for the environment, including storing carbon, preventing floods, and providing crucial habitats for pollinators.
“Native prairies are the rarest landscapes left in Texas – so much so that many people have never seen one,” said David Bezanson, land protection strategy program director for The Nature Conservancy in Texas. He added that preserving Smiley Meadow will not only conserve one of the best prairie remnants left but also help restore other prairie habitats and boost regional biodiversity.
The Mockingbird Solar Center, a half-billion-dollar project, is part of Ørsted’s $20 billion push to expand renewable energy production across the US. Beyond generating electricity, it will inject $75 million into local property taxes, benefiting schools and other public services. The project also created over 550 construction jobs and will continue to be supported by operations staff moving forward.
Ørsted worked with US companies, including First Solar, for solar panels and partnered with local businesses like Drake Construction and Pfifer Farms for construction materials. It also gave more than $50,000 to local volunteer fire departments in Roxton and Brookston.
With Mockingbird Solar now up and running, Ørsted has more than 6 gigawatts of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage projects either in operation or being built across the US.
Read more: Ørsted got a huge Tesla battery storage system for the world’s single-largest offshore wind farm
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Jeep’s first global luxury electric SUV will arrive at US dealerships any day. Despite its $72,000 price tag, lease prices for the 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S EV start at just $599 per month.
2024 Jeep Wagoneer S EV lease prices
After unveiling its first global electric SUV, Jeep’s CEO said the Wagoneer S “marks a new chapter” in its storied history.
Jeep claims the Wagoneer S packs “exhilarating performance.” With 600 hp and 617 lb-ft of torque, the big-body SUV can sprint from 0 to 60 mph in just 3.4 seconds. Its 100 kWh battery pack also gives it a driving range of over 300 miles.
The electric SUV is unmistakably still a Jeep, but it did get several upgrades to distinguish it as an EV. The grille is now enclosed without the need to cool a massive engine, giving it a sporty, more modern look.
Jeep revamped its design with a new illuminated seven-slot grille with ambient cast lightning. It also fine-tuned its profile, adding flush door handles, a rear wing, and integrated fins for better airflow.
The first Jeep Wagoneer S Launch Edition models get exclusive dark accent design elements like 20″ Gloss Black Wheels.
Inside, the electric SUV is loaded with the latest tech and connectivity, including a best-in-class 45″ of usable screen space. The setup includes a 12.3″ center screen and an exclusive 10.25″ interactive front passenger screen.
Jeep already announced that the 2024 Wagoneer S EV will start at $71,995, but now the company has revealed lease prices for the first time.
According to Jeep, the 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S Launch Edition can be leased for $599 per month for 36 months (10,000 miles per year). The deal includes $4,999 due at signing and a $7,500 EV incentive. However, you may want to act fast, as Jeep’s offer is only good until December 2, 2024.
| Jeep Wagoneer S vs Tesla Model Y | Starting Price | Range | Lease Price |
| Jeep Wagoneer S Launch Edition | $71,995 | +300 miles | $599/mo |
| Tesla Model Y RWD | $44,990 | 320 miles | $299/mo |
| Tesla Model Y AWD | $47,990 | 308 miles | $399/mo |
| Tesla Model Y AWD Performance | $51,490 | 279 miles | $599/mo |
In comparison, Tesla Model Y RWD lease prices start at $299 for 36 months with $2,999 down (10,000 miles). The Performance AWD model starts at $599 per month. In an end-of-year promo, Tesla also offers 3 months of free Supercharging and Full Self-Driving.
Ready to drive off in your new electric SUV? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to view offers on the Jeep Wagoneer S and Tesla Model Y at a dealer near you.
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