A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what’s at stake.
Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It’s estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities.
For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.
“There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don’t like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year,” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it’s not great but now you have [China’s] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,” Currie said.
“On top of that, we’ve thrown in potential conflict in the Middle East that could take out some energy facilities, so the near-term outlook is positive, which is why the front of the curve is strong, but it is being weighed down on the back end over the fears of this big oil supply glut,” he added.
The market is backwardated, or in backwardation, when the futures price of oil is below the spot price. The opposite structure is known as contango.
‘The market is so short’
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, echoed Currie’s view.
“The market is so short. We’ve never seen these levels of record shorts before,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
Many oil traders appear to have taken a bearish position on the belief that China’s stimulus rally will fail to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, Sen said, adding that market participants also tend to expect OPEC and non-OPEC allies to boost oil production later in the year.
“The market has just gotten itself into this fit of around bearishness but that’s why if it goes, we could be above $80 very quickly,” Sen said.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.8% higher at $78.26 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $74.34, up 0.8% for the session.
Fundamentals ‘anything but encouraging’
Oil’s biggest move this week came on Thursday, when prices popped more than 5% following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden over a possible retaliatory move from Israel following Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier in the week.
Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”
CNBC has reached out to the White House for further comment.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns.
“This is why oil is stable-to-higher, equities are weakening, and the dollar is strong. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted,” he added.
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
“Under this scenario underlying fundamentals will become the driving force again and these fundamentals are anything but encouraging,” Varga said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, Bushehr province, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said that oil prices were surprisingly steady given the high stakes.
“I think it is definitely a little bit about short covering, but [the price rally] is surprisingly weak … given the scenarios that might play out in the Middle East,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
Schieldrop said Brent crude prices had largely traded between $80 to $85 for around 18 months or so, before dipping below $70 in September. He described the oil contract’s recent move higher as “very meager,” especially given the “potentially devastating scenarios in the Middle East.”
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
Bojangles, the North Carolina-based chain known for its fried chicken and biscuits, is joining the growing list of fast food chains installing EV chargers in their parking lots.
The restaurant chain is working with Smart Big Box, Alyath EV, and Energy and Environmental Design Services to install turnkey EV charging stations at a “wide range” of its 800 restaurants, which are concentrated heavily in the southeast US. The rollout starts in late 2025, with most chargers expected to be available by sometime in 2026.
Each Bojangles location getting EV chargers will offer at least four ports. The stations will vary between Level 2 and DC fast chargers.
Bojangles CIO Richard Del Valle said, “Working with Alyath and Smart Big Box allows us to introduce a new convenience that aligns with evolving customer needs.”
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It’s a smart move. The charging stations will let people plug in and power up, and they’re more likely to dine at Bojangles while they’re doing so. Plus, Bojangles will get a reputation for having charging stations, so EV drivers will be more inclined to head toward the restaurants as a reliable power source.
Cristiane Rosul, CEO of Alyath, said the partnership “not only benefits EV drivers but also positions Bojangles as a leader in the future of quick-service dining.”
Smart Big Box has contracted with Energy and Environmental Design Services as the exclusive installer and maintenance partner for all EV chargers.
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Toyota’s electric SUV is now its cheapest vehicle to lease. After slashing lease prices again, the Toyota bZ4X is listed for lease at just $199 per month in some states. That’s even cheaper than a Corolla right now, even though it’s nearly double the price.
Toyota bZ4X is now cheaper to lease than a Corolla
The 2025 Toyota bZ4X already starts at $6,000 cheaper than the previous model year, but with a new promotion this month, it’s even more affordable.
Toyota is at it again, having cut lease prices once more this month following the Fourth of July holiday. The 2025 Toyota bZ4X XLE is now listed at just $199 per month for 36 months. With $3,999 due at signing, you’ll end up paying an effective cost of $310 per month.
The offer is $42 less than before the new promo, or about a 12% price cut. It’s hard enough to find any lease nowadays around $300, but for an electric SUV, it’s a pretty good deal.
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According to online auto research firm CarsDirect, it’s even cheaper to lease a bZ4X now in some states than a Toyota Corolla. The 2025 Corolla LE Sedan is available for $229 for 36 months. With $2,999 due at signing, the effective monthly rate is $312, or $2 more than the bZ4X.
2025 Toyota bZ4X Limited AWD Supersonic Red (Source: Toyota)
Although $2 might not seem like much in the grand scheme of things, it’s pretty significant, given that the bZ4X is $16,000 more expensive.
The 2025 Toyota bZ4X XLE has an MSRP of $38,465, compared to the Corolla LE Sedan, which starts at $22,325. That’s a $16,140 cost difference alone.
2025 Toyota bZ4X Limited AWD interior (Source: Toyota)
Toyota’s electric SUV is slightly longer than a RAV4 at 184.6″ in length, but it has a longer wheelbase, which opens up more interior space.
Toyota is also throwing in a free year of unlimited charging (at EV-go-operated public charging stations) for those who buy or lease a new 2025 bZ4X. You can also add a ChargePoint home charger to the cost.
Although the bZ4X is available for just $199 per month, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 is listed at $179 nationwide this month. With more range, style, and an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers, the 2025 IONIQ 5 offer is hard to pass up right now.
2025 Toyota bZ4X trim
Starting Price (excluding $1,395 DPH fee)
Price reduction (vs 2024MY)
Range (mi)
XLE FWD
$37,070
-$6,000
252
XLE AWD
$39,150
-$6,000
228
Limited FWD
$41,800
-$5,380
236
Limited AWD
$43,880
-$5,380
222
Nightshade
$40,420
N/A
222
2025 Toyota bZ4X prices and range by trim
Like many carmakers, Toyota is currently offering significant incentives on electric vehicles, with the federal tax credit set to expire at the end of September. Accordingly, Toyota’s promotion ends on September 30. Although the bZ4X doesn’t qualify for the credit through purchase, Toyota is passing it on through leasing.
In some areas, like LA, Toyota is currently offering $12,000 off bZ4X leases. With the loss of the tax credit, the savings would drop to just $4,500, which would add over $100 a month to the lease price.
Transport Canada has finished its investigation into Tesla’s questionable filing of $43 million worth of EV incentives in a single day, finding that the claims did indeed represent cars sold before the deadline to file for incentives – still raising questions about disorganization within Tesla.
To recap, Canada suddenly sunsetted its electric vehicle incentives back in January, as the program ran out of money. It caught a lot of EV dealers by surprise, and there was a sudden rush to sell cars and to file for incentives, given that the end of the program was announced with just three days notice.
One of these dealerships that showed a rush was a single Tesla dealership in Quebec, which recorded 4,000 rebate requests in a single weekend, an impossible number at the relatively small location. Other Tesla locations also filed for suspiciously high numbers of incentive claims on the same weekend.
This raised alarm bells, and other Canadian auto dealers pointed it out to Transport Canada, with Huw WIlliams, head of the Canadian Auto Dealers Association (CADA) claiming that Tesla “gamed the system” to hog an illegitimate number of incentive claims out of the limited money left. The total amount was $43 million, which was more than half of the amount left in the Canadian government’s coffers.
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Even accounting for Tesla delivery pushes, and for increased sales as the credit rapidly sunset, these numbers did not seem possible.
This – perhaps combined with Tesla’s unpopular position in Canada at the time given CEO Elon Musk’s participation in a US government which was attacking Canada’s sovereignty at the time – led to Transport Canada announcing an investigation into Tesla’s incentive claims (Canadian Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland even said at the time that future Canadian ZEV incentives should exclude Tesla until the US’ “illegitimate and illegal” tariffs were lifted).
Tesla responded to the investigation in a typically standoffish manner, claiming in a letter that it was “shocked” to hear about the investigation, threatening legal action if payments weren’t resumed, and blaming Transport Canada for causing Tesla’s negative public perception and exposing Tesla’s Canadian employees to harassment (the letter did not, however, mention anything about CEO Musk’s government activities, or his recent actions attempting to spread white supremacy around the globe, and how those are much more responsible for negative public perception of the company).
Well now, the result of that investigation is back, and Freeland said on Friday that Tesla’s claims “were determined to legitimately represent cars sold before January 12.”
Transport Canada also pledged to CADA that all cars delivered before January 12 will have their incentive claims fulfilled, regardless of the program’s budget. CADA estimates it’s owed around $11 million in past-due claims, and Williams still wonders how Tesla knew to file those claims so suddenly.
Electrek’s Take
Questions still remain about this incentive. As pointed out by the Canadian Press, it’s still not clear whether Tesla’s incentive claims were for cars sold on that weekend, or for cars sold prior to that weekend and delivered all in a lump.
Given the physical limitations of the locations involved, it’s likely the latter. Which raises a different kind of alarm bell: that of disorganization within Tesla, as I pointed out as my main concern over this situation in a previous article.
I just don’t see how Tesla Canada can justify leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table for potentially several months, when all it took was the filing of some pieces of paper for them to get it. That’s capital that Tesla could have used to do business, and letting it sit in someone else’s bank account doesn’t benefit Tesla at all.
Now, disorganization is nothing new for Tesla, but businesses usually don’t like leaving money laying around for no reason. And Tesla, with its focus on quarterly results and end-of-quarter pushes, surely would have enjoyed having that extra cash in December, the end of a fiscal quarter/year, rather than the beginning of January when they filed for these incentives.
So regardless of the now proven legitimacy of these claims, this aspect should be cause for some amount of concern. It’s a reflection of a longtime problem in Tesla, where things tend to fall through the cracks until there’s some sort of emergency, and then it’s all-hands-on-deck from whoever happens to be closest to the problem at the time. But this has been an issue within Tesla for so long that it’s hard to see it being fixed at this point – and certainly not under its longtime CEO who seems far more interested in using Tesla to bail out his private companies or turning Twitter into “MechaHitler” than on making actual good decisions for Tesla.
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