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Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.

Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.

The economy

In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.

For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.

Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.

This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.

Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.

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Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.

By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.

Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.

There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.

But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.

And it’s not yet clear that they are.

“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.

Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.

In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.

During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.

By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.

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Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.

“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.

“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.

While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.

It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.

Immigration

One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.

Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.

She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.

The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.

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But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?

Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.

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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.

This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.

Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.

Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.

This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.

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But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.

In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.

In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.

Migrants..seeking asylum rest as they wait to be processed after crossing the border Wednesday, June 5, 2024, in San Diego, Calif. President Joe Biden has unveiled plans to enact immediate significant restrictions on migrants seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border as the White House tries to neutralize immigration as a political liability ahead of the November elections. (AP Photo/Eugene Garcia)
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Migrants wait to be processed after crossing the border on 5 June, the day Biden’s asylum ban took effect. Pic: AP/Eugene Garcia

However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.

“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.

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This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.

As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.

But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.

Abortion rights

While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.

Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.

6.	U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v. Wade being overturned, in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. June 24, 2024.  REUTERS/Rebecca Noble
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Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v Wade being overturned in Phoenix, Arizona. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble

She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.

“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.

Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.

Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.

From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.

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This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.

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As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.

The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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US judge warns Trump administration could be in criminal contempt over El Salvador deportations

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White House rages at 'appalling' attempt to return wrongly deported man from El Salvador

A US federal judge has warned that he could hold the Trump administration in contempt for violating his orders to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador.

US District Judge James E. Boasberg said he had found “probable cause” to hold the administration in criminal contempt and warned he could refer the matter for prosecution if it does not “purge” its contempt.

If the government doesn’t purge the contempt, charges could be brought forward by the Justice Department, NBC News reported.

And if the executive-led Justice Department refused to prosecute the matter, Judge Boasberg said he would appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt.

Mr Boasberg said the administration could “purge contempt by returning those who were sent to El Salvador prison, in violation of his order, to the US.

This, he said, “might avail themselves of their right to challenge their removability”.

“The Constitution does not tolerate wilful disobedience of judicial orders – especially by officials of a coordinate branch who have sworn an oath to uphold it,” the judge wrote.

Executive vs judicial

This marks a notable escalation in the ongoing tensions between the judicial and executive branches of the US government during Donald Trump’s second term.

Parts of the US president’s legislative programme have been halted by judges, as the administration strains against the restraints of the separation of powers.

Mr Trump previously called for Judge Boasberg to be impeached while the Justice Department claimed he overstepped his authority – both reflecting the administration’s attempts to overcome perceived obstacles to the implementation of its agenda.

Mr Trump’s administration has also argued it did not violate any orders.

It claimed the judge didn’t include a turnaround directive in his written order and said the planes had already left the US by the time the order came down.

‘Administrative error’

At the heart of the legal wrangling is Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man who was sent to El Salvador by the Trump administration in March despite an immigration court order preventing his deportation.

Washington acknowledged that Mr Garcia was deported due to an “administrative error”.

The US Supreme Court has called on the administration to facilitate his return, upholding a court order by Judge Paula Xinis, but Trump officials have claimed that Mr Garcia has ties to the MS-13 gang.

Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA / AP
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Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA/AP

Mr Garcia’s lawyers have argued there is no evidence of this.

This all comes after El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele visited the White House earlier this week.

During his time with Mr Trump, Mr Bukele said that he would not return Mr Garcia, likening it to smuggling “a terrorist into the United States.”

The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque
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The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

Along with Mr Garcia, the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people, mostly Venezuelans, whom it claims are gang members without presenting evidence and without a trial.

Democrat senator travels to El Salvador

Meanwhile, Democratic senator Chris Van Hollen arrived in El Salvador on Wednesday, saying he would seek a meeting with the country’s officials to secure Mr Garcia’s release.

“I just arrived in San Salvador a little while ago and look forward to meeting with the US embassy team to discuss Mr. Abrego Garcia’s release,” Mr Van Hollen said on social media.

Deportations have been an important part of Mr Trump’s second term, with him being vocal on the issue throughout the campaign trail and into office.

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Gene Hackman: Bodycam footage of actor’s home released by investigators into his death

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Gene Hackman: Bodycam footage of actor's home released by investigators into his death

Body camera footage of Gene Hackman’s home has been released by authorities investigating the deaths of the actor and his wife.

The video captured by Santa Fe County Sheriff’s Office shows officers inside and outside the property in northern New Mexico, with a German shepherd barking at some points as they carry out their search.

Actor Gene Hackman arrives and his wife, Betsy Arakawa pictured in 2003.
File pic: AP/Mark J. Terrill
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Hackman and Arakawa pictured in 2003. Pic: AP/ Mark J Terrill

The bodies of Hackman, 95, and his wife, Betsy Arakawa, 65, were found in separate rooms of their home on 26 February.

“He’s guarding her,” a male officer can be heard saying, about the dog found alive at the home. “He seems pretty friendly.”

There is another “10-7 dog” – meaning the pet is dead – “round the corner in the kennel”, the officer says.

Authorities also released a report detailing some of Arakawa’s last emails and internet searches, revealing she was investigating information on flu-like symptoms, COVID-19, and breathing techniques before she died.

An image taken Santa Fe County Sheriff's Office during their investigation and search of the home of Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa. Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP
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Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP

Rat nests and dead rodents were also discovered in several outbuildings around the property, an environmental assessment by the New Mexico Department of Health revealed.

The inside of the home was clean and showed no evidence of rodent activity.

In March, a medical investigator concluded Arakawa died from hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, a rare infectious disease that can be caused by exposure to rodents.

Hackman had advanced Alzheimer’s and died from heart disease about a week later, with data from his pacemaker last registering on 18 February.

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Law enforcement officials outside Gene Hackman and Betsy Arakawa's home the day after they were found dead. Pic: AP/Roberto Rosales
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Law enforcement officials pictured outside the property in Santa Fe the day after Hackman and Arakawa’s bodies were found. Pic: AP/Roberto Rosales

According to the records now released by the county sheriff’s office, Arakawa was researching medical conditions related to COVID-19 and flu between 8 February and the morning of 12 February.

In one email to a masseuse, she said Hackman had woken on 11 February with flu or cold-like symptoms and that she wanted to reschedule an appointment “out of an abundance of caution”.

Search history on the morning of 12 February showed she was looking into a medical concierge service in Santa Fe. Investigators said there was a call to the service which lasted under two minutes, and a follow-up call from them later that afternoon was missed.

The police footage shows officers checking the home and finding no signs of forced entry or other suspicious signs.

An image taken Santa Fe County Sheriff's Office during their investigation and search of the home of Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa. Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP
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Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP

What is hantavirus?

HPS, commonly known as hantavirus disease, is a respiratory disease caused by hantaviruses – which are carried by several types of rodents.

It is a rare condition in the US, with most cases concentrated in the western states of New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Utah. This was the first confirmed case in New Mexico this year.

There has so far been no confirmation about any potential link by authorities between the rodents and the hantavirus disease that claimed Arakawa’s life.

Who was Gene Hackman?

FILE - Actor Gene Hackman, winner of Best Supporting Actor at academy awards in March 1993. Hackman will turn 80 years on Jan. 30, 2010. (AP Photo, File)
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Pic: AP 1993

Hackman was a former Marine whose work on screen began with an uncredited TV role in 1961.

Acting became his career for many years, and he went on to play villains, heroes and antiheroes in more than 80 films spanning a range of genres.

He was best known by many for playing evil genius Lex Luthor in the Superman films in the late 1970s and ’80s, and won Oscars for his performances in The French Connection and Unforgiven.

After roles in The Royal Tenenbaums, Behind Enemy Lines and Runaway Jury in the 2000s, he left acting behind after his final film, Welcome To Mooseport.

He and Arakawa, a pianist, had been together since the mid-1980s.

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Donald Trump blames Volodymyr Zelenskyy for starting Ukraine war – a day after dozens killed in Russian missile strikes

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Donald Trump blames Volodymyr Zelenskyy for starting Ukraine war - a day after dozens killed in Russian missile strikes

Donald Trump has questioned Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s competence and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia which is “20 times” its size.

The US president also said “millions of people are dead because of three people” – blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, his White House predecessor Joe Biden, and Mr Zelenskyy, in that order.

It comes a day after 35 people, including two children, were killed by two Russian missiles that struck the northeastern city of Sumy as Ukrainians gathered to celebrate Palm Sunday in what was the deadliest strike on the country so far this year, according to officials.

Ukraine latest updates: Trump points finger over war

Damaged cars at the site of a Russian missile strike on Sumy. Pic: Reuters
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Damaged cars at the site of a Russian missile strike on Sumy. Pic: Reuters

Speaking in the White House’s Oval Office during a meeting with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Mr Trump told reporters: “If Biden were competent, and if Zelenskyy were competent, and I don’t know that he is…

“There was no way that war should never have been allowed to happen.”

He added: “Biden could have stopped it, and Zelenskyy could have stopped it, and Putin should have never started it.”

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Asked about Mr Zelenskyy, Mr Trump said: “When you start a war you’ve got to know you can win the war.

“You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size. And then hope that people give you some missiles.”

Mr Trump said he was the first to give Ukraine Javelin missiles.

Firefighters work at the site of a Russian missile strike in Sumy on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
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Firefighters work at the site of a Russian missile strike in Sumy on Sunday. Pic: Reuters

“Millions of people are dead because of three people,” Mr Trump added.

“Let’s say Putin number one, let’s say Biden, who had no idea what the hell he was doing, number two, and Zelenskyy.

“And all I can do is try and stop it – that’s all I want to do. I want to stop the killing.

“And I think we’re doing well in that regard. I think you’ll have some very good proposals very soon.”

Mr Zelenskyy has called for a global response to the Sumy attack, in which more than 100 people were injured, saying the first strike hit university buildings while the second exploded above street level.

On Monday, Ukraine’s air force said a new Russian missile and guided bombs had targeted Sumy, but gave no indication of casualties or damage. Public broadcaster Suspilne reported an explosion in the city, with no further details.

‘It’s a horrible thing’

Asked about Sunday’s Sumy attack which is near the Russian border, Mr Trump earlier said on board Air Force One: “I think it was terrible and I was told they made a mistake, but I think it’s a horrible thing. I think the whole war is a horrible thing.”

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Russia ‘made a mistake’

When questioned about the incident, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s forces only strike military targets.

The strike targeted a gathering of senior military officers, according to the defence ministry in Moscow which accused Kyiv of using civilians as shields by holding military meetings in the city centre.

The ministry also claimed to have killed more than 60 troops. Russia did not provide any evidence to support its claims.

Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski, whose country currently holds the EU’s presidency, said that recent attacks are “Russia’s mocking answer” to Kyiv’s agreement to a ceasefire proposed by the US administration over a month ago.

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Missile attack on Sumy

What’s the latest on proposed ceasefire?

The attack on Sumy followed a missile strike on 4 April on Mr Zelenskyy’s home city of Kryvyi Rih that killed some 20 people, including nine children.

Russia and Ukraine’s senior diplomats have accused each other of violating a tentative US-brokered deal to pause strikes on energy infrastructure.

Ukraine has endorsed a broader US ceasefire proposal, but Russia has effectively blocked it by imposing far-reaching conditions.

Mr Putin has said he wants Ukraine to drop its ambitions to join NATO, Russia to control the entirety of the four Ukrainian regions it has claimed as its own, and the size of the Ukrainian army to be limited. He has also made clear he wants Western sanctions eased.

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