Trump v Harris: Perception, reality and how their records in office compare
Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.
Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.
The economy
In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.
For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.
Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.
This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.
Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.
Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.
By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.
Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.
There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.
But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.
And it’s not yet clear that they are.
“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.
Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.
In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.
During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.
By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.
Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.
“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.
“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.
While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.
It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.
Immigration
One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.
Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.
She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.
The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.
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But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?
Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.
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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.
This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.
Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.
Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.
This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.
But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.
In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.
In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.
Migrants wait to be processed after crossing the border on 5 June, the day Biden’s asylum ban took effect. Pic: AP/Eugene Garcia
However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.
“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.
In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.
This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.
As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.
But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.
Abortion rights
While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.
Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.
Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v Wade being overturned in Phoenix, Arizona. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble
She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.
“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.
Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.
Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.
From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.
This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.
As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.
The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Sean “Diddy” Combs has been found guilty of transportation for prostitution following a landmark trial in New York – but cleared of more serious charges of sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.
The hip-hop mogul was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura, and other crimes including kidnapping, arson and blackmail.
Jurors decided not all the allegations were proven – but Combs still faces several years in prison after being convicted of transporting people across the US, including Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane”, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.
However, with the not guilty verdict on three other more serious charges – racketeering conspiracy and two of sex trafficking – the 55-year-old has avoided a maximum possible sentence of life behind bars.
Despite a request by his defence team, he was denied bail ahead of sentencing – which has been scheduled for Friday 3 October.
Combs appeared upbeat in court as the verdict was announced. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
Marc Agnifilo, part of Diddy’s defence team, described the ruling as “a victory of all victories”.
Outside the courthouse, he said the jury “got the situation right, or certainly right enough”.
Another of his lawyers, Nicole Westmoreland, said: “He actually battled for his freedom, for his innocence, and he did it.
“And, you know, a lot of times, people are too afraid to do it. Today is a major win to show what the system can do.”
The mixed result from the jury came not long into their third day of deliberations. In the courtroom in Manhattan, there were cheers from Combs’s family – and the rapper himself held his hands up in a prayer motion, looking at the jury, and hugged his defence lawyer Teny Geragos.
His mood seemed very different to just a day earlier – when he learned the jury had reached a verdict on four of the five charges, but were split on the racketeering charge.
After deliberating for longer on Wednesday, they came to a unanimous decision.
As the verdict sunk in, Combs appeared overwhelmed, kneeling at his chair and bowing his head in prayer once again.
“I’ll be home soon,” he said as he faced his family members. “I love you, Mum.”
Combs later seemed to become overwhelmed with relief. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
The application for bail
Combs’s defence team argued that as he had been cleared of the most serious charges, he should be bailed ahead of sentencing.
His lawyer Marc Agnifilo said he had been a model prisoner and added: “He’s not going to flee. He’s been given his life back.”
But prosecutor Maurene Comey argued Combs had a history of violence, which Judge Arub Subramanian agreed with. “At trial, the defence conceded the defendant’s violence in his personal relationships,” he said.
After being denied bail, Combs attempted get the judge’s attention – but after consulting with Mr Agnifilo, he did not speak.
Casandra ‘Cassie’ was heavily pregnant when she gave evidence at the start of the trial. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters
Cassie ‘paved the way’
Reacting to the verdict, Cassie’s lawyer Douglas H Wigdor said that although jurors did not find Combs guilty of sex-trafficking Cassie, she had “paved the way” for the other guilty verdicts.
“By coming forward with her experience, Cassie has left an indelible mark on both the entertainment industry and the fight for justice,” he said.
“We must repeat – with no reservation – that we believe and support our client, who showed exemplary courage throughout this trial.”
Cassie, who testified heavily pregnant just three weeks before giving birth, displayed “unquestionable strength”, he added, and “brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit”.
Videos of “freak off” sex sessions with male escorts were shown to jurors only during the seven-week trial, with the footage kept private from members of the public and media in court.
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The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg
Former employees, along with escorts, hotel staff and police officers were among those to give evidence.
Cassie and Jane, who used a pseudonym, also testified. They told the court they were coerced into drug-fuelled “freak offs” – which were also referred to as “hotel nights” or “wild king nights” – with male escorts, and abused throughout their relationships.
Combs’s defence team presented a very different picture to show that sexual acts, including freak offs, were consensual.
They conceded the music star could be violent, had a bad temper and used drugs. He also had multiple relationships at the same time. But crucially, they said, while he was “not proud” of some of his behaviour, none of it made him guilty of the charges against him.
After hearing evidence of flights and travel for escorts and Cassie and Jane, paid for by Combs, as well as hotel bookings across the US and the Caribbean, jurors found him guilty of the transportation to engage in prostitution charges. However, they did not find that the allegations against the rapper amounted to sex trafficking or racketeering.
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CCTV footage shows Diddy ‘attacking’ Cassie in hotel
The Cassie hotel tape
Combs, known variously as Puff Daddy, P Diddy, and Diddy over the years, was once one of the most influential figures in hip-hop – famous as a producer, founder of Bad Boy Records and manager of the late Notorious BIG in the 1990s, as well as a rapper in his own right.
As an artist, he won three Grammys during his career, and had hits including I’ll Be Missing You, Come With Me, and Bad Boy For Life.
In September 2023, he received the “global icon” award from MTV and was given the key to New York City at a ceremony in Times Square, just a few miles away from the streets in Harlem where he spent his first years.
Allegations first came to prominence in November 2023, when Cassie filed a bombshell lawsuit accusing him of coercing her into unwanted sex sessions, as well as blackmail and several incidences of violence.
The suit was settled in 24 hours – for $20m, it emerged during the trial – but months later CNN aired hotel security footage showing Combs punching and kicking Cassie and throwing her to the floor in 2016.
He apologised after the video aired, saying: “I was disgusted when I did it.”
Footage from the hotel incident was shown during the trial.
Following the verdict, the rapper now awaits sentencing. He also still faces several civil lawsuits, most of which were filed in the wake of his arrest in September 2024.
A man has pleaded guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in November 2022.
Bryan Kohberger, a 30-year-old former criminal justice student, was arrested at his parents’ home in Pennsylvania weeks after the killings.
He was accused of sneaking into the rented home in Moscow, Idaho, which is not far from the university campus, and attacking Ethan Chapin, Xana Kernodle, Madison Mogen and Kaylee Goncalves.
Kohberger previously pleaded not guilty to charges of murder and burglary.
It comes after he agreed to a plea deal, just weeks before his trial was set to begin, in a bid to avoid the death penalty.
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Bryan Kohberger during a hearing in Latah County District Court in Moscow, Idaho. Pic: Reuters
Kaylee Goncalves, Maddie Mogen and Xana Kernodle, and Xana’s boyfriend Ethan Chapin
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It is certainly big – 940 pages long – but on the question of beauty, Congress is divided.
Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” has sparked ugly debate – both for its ambitious scope and for the political manoeuvring that’s gone on around it.
Elon Musk branded it “political suicide” for Republicans and threatened to fund challenges against those who back it in next year’s midterm elections.
But the president hit back, suggesting he would consider cutting Musk’s lucrative government contracts or even deporting him back to South Africa.
The “big, beautiful bill”, or HR 1 to give the proposed legislation its proper title, is Mr Trump’s signature spending and tax policy.
It extends tax cuts he secured in 2017 and bankrolls his second-term agenda in the White House.
File pic: Reuters
Here is a summary of the key points:
• Permanent tax cuts: Extending relief from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
• Small business support: Doubling the small business expensing limit to $2.5m (£1.8m) to help businesses expand and hire staff
• Child tax credit: Expanding the child tax credit and making it permanent, benefiting 40 million families
• Making housing affordable: Expanding the low-income housing tax credit to kickstart construction of affordable homes
• Defence and border security: Allocating $170bn (£123bn) for border security alone, including $46bn (£33bn) for completing the border wall
• Made-in-America incentives: Providing tax breaks and incentives for domestic manufacturing to promote US industry
• Healthcare and social welfare: Implementing restrictions on Medicaid, which provides healthcare for millions of Americans, and reducing funding for certain healthcare and nutrition programmes.
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Clash over ‘monster’ debt bill
Musk, Mr Trump’s former ally and the man who established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), claimed the bill “raises the debt ceiling by $5trn, the biggest increase in history.”
“DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon,” was President Trump’s response.
The national debt currently stands at $37trn (£27trn) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill could add $2.4trn (£1.7trn) to that over the next decade.
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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk
Bill splits Republican ranks
Republican Senator Thom Tillis voted against the bill and, following criticism from the president, announced he would not seek re-election in North Carolina.
He said he couldn’t support it due to his concerns about the impact cuts to Medicaid would have on people in his state.
Democrats in the Senate forced a full reading of all 940 pages and then a vote-a-rama, a series of marathon voting sessions.
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In the House of Representatives, it passed by a single vote, 215-214. In the Senate, Vice President JD Vance, had to cast the deciding vote to break a tie (50-50).
Legislatively, the progress of the bill has been a case study in the complexities of American law-making.
Strategically, it represents a mammoth effort to consolidate the president’s policy agenda and secure his legacy.
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