Trump v Harris: Perception, reality and how their records in office compare

Published

1 month ago

October 5, 2024

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Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.

Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.

The economy

In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.

For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.

Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.

This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.

Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.

Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.

By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.

Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.

There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.

But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.

And it’s not yet clear that they are.

“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.

Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.

In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.

During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.

By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.

Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.

“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.

“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.

While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.

It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.

Immigration

One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.

Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.

She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.

The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.

But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?

Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.

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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.

This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.

Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.

Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.

This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.

But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.

In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.

In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.

However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.

“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.

This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.

As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.

But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.

Abortion rights

While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.

Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.

She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.

“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.

Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.

Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.

From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.

This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.

As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.

The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Voter in UK ‘terrified’ by US election legal battle, as up to 4,000 ballots challenged in Pennsylvania

Published

48 mins ago

November 5, 2024

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Voter in UK 'terrified' by US election legal battle, as up to 4,000 ballots challenged in Pennsylvania

Up to 4,000 people voting overseas in the US election are having their ballots challenged in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, according to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).

They include Selma Aldi, 47, from Camden in north London who received a letter on Sunday explaining that her ballot in the US presidential election is at risk of being rejected.

“It was a shock,” she said. “It was terrifying to be targeted, to potentially lose a right that I hold as very important. It’s even a feeling that someone is questioning my identity.”

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The trainee GP, who grew up in Hershey, Pennsylvania left America in 2000 but has voted via absentee ballot in every US presidential election since.

A letter from election officials in Dauphin County outlines the legal challenge. It reads: “The applicant is not registered to vote and therefore is not eligible to vote in Pennsylvania.

“Under Pennsylvania law, it is a felony to permit any person to vote who is not registered.”

A hearing on the legal challenge is scheduled for Friday, in which Ms Aldi can respond.

Around 2.8 million US citizens living abroad are entitled to vote in the election, no matter where they are on polling day.

But each state has different procedures and rules on how election paperwork can be sent and received.

But Ari Savitzky, senior staff Attorney at the ACLU said “any attempt to challenge [voters] eligibility is a clear violation of their rights”.

He told Sky News: “Between 3,000 and 4,000 challenges have been filed in Pennsylvania to the absentee ballots of US citizens living abroad.

“For decades, federal law has guaranteed the right of US citizens living abroad to vote in federal elections at their last US residence.

“In addition to being legally baseless, these challenges are an abuse to voters and to election administrators.”

Deborah Hinchey from another voting rights group, All Voting is Local, said: “Election deniers across Pennsylvania have submitted thousands of mass challenges to overseas voters.

“They want to block as many ballots as possible and silence our voices… but these baseless challenges have failed before and the proper checks and balances are in place to make sure they’ll fail again,” she added.

Tonight, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.

US

Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters, judge rules – as lawyer admits winners aren’t chosen randomly

Published

4 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Elon Musk can keep giving away m to voters, judge rules - as lawyer admits winners aren't chosen randomly

Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters in battleground states, a judge has ruled – as a lawyer admitted the winners aren’t chosen randomly.

Musk – a supporter of Republican candidate Donald Trump – launched the giveaways last month via America PAC, his political action committee (PAC).

He has already handed out $16m in the scheme, which is open to registered voters in seven key battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – who sign a petition pledging to support free speech and gun rights.

On Monday, Pennsylvania Judge Angelo Foglietta ruled the giveaways could carry on, rejecting a district attorney’s request that he shut it down because it allegedly violated state election law.

US election latest: Harris team reveals when it expects results

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, said it was “a political marketing masquerading as a lottery”, adding “That’s what it is. A grift.”

Judge Foglietta did not explain his ruling on the matter but Chris Gober, a lawyer for America PAC, had argued the winners are not chosen by chance and are instead hand-picked based on who would be the best spokespeople for the group – despite Musk’s assertion that they would be chosen randomly.

Mr Gober said the final two winners before Tuesday’s presidential election will be in Arizona on Monday and Michigan on Tuesday.

He said the recipients “are not chosen by chance”, adding: “We know exactly who will be announced as the recipient today and tomorrow.”

America PAC director Chris Young said recipients are vetted ahead of time to “feel out their personality, (and) make sure they were someone whose values aligned” with the group.

In closing arguments, Musk’s legal team said it was “core political speech” as anyone taking part had to sign a petition endorsing the US Constitution.

Given there will be no more Pennsylvania winners before the programme ends, Musk’s lawyers said any legal bid to stop it under Pennsylvania law was irrelevant.

Launching the plan in the state on 19 October, Musk said they would be “awarding a million dollars randomly to people who have signed the petition every day from now until the election.”

The following day, he said in a social media post shown in court that anyone signing the petition had “a daily chance of winning one million dollars!”

Musk did not attend the hearing.

US

What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security

Published

13 hours ago

November 4, 2024

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What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security

Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

US election latest: Harris and Trump make final pitches

Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.

While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.

On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.