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There’s no doubt who has momentum in the Tory leadership contest now.

James Cleverly pole-vaulted his rivals to first place – reaping the benefits of a well-thought-through, warm conference speech designed to make the party feel good about itself.

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A pitch from the Tory centre that so far appears to be appealing to all sides. Hopes in rival camps that the conference counted for little have not born out.

But this does not by itself guarantee victory and beyond that, still nothing is certain.

One more knockout round tomorrow before the 170,000 or so members get their say, what clues are there in the results and the briefings about what happens next?

Today told us three things, as the remaining teams battle it out tonight to ensure their candidate makes it to the final two.

What did we learn:

• Kemi Badenoch is explicitly pitching to the Tory right, suggesting she is making little effort to appeal to the bulk of Tom Tugendhat’s supporters who are mostly – though not exclusively – one-nation Conservatives. Tonight in a statement she demands “the right of the Conservative Party now needs to coalesce around Kemi” – this suggests she is still trying to nibble away at Robert Jenrick backers, even though she fell behind Jenrick today. This is a particularly bold strategy given some of the ERG (European Research Group) fell out with Ms Badenoch when Rishi Sunak was prime minister.

• Robert Jenrick is losing momentum. Rival camps are capitalising on a drop in support for Mr Jenrick, from 33 MP votes in the last round to 31 votes today. However, I was told by Jenrick supporters that he would get 35-40 votes today, suggesting that he has seriously underperformed expectations. It appears the conference has done him some damage – his speech appeared less well-received than others – costing him the top spot among MPs.

• Is James Cleverly so far out in front he dares to try and engineer Jenrick as his opponent in the final round? In the YouGov poll of Tory members taken before the conference speeches, Mr Jenrick was only four points ahead of Mr Cleverly, while Ms Badenoch was further in front. Given the margins between second and third place are so small, could he “lend” some votes to get an easier opponent over the line?

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Tugendhat out of Tory leadership race

YouGov polling revealed that among the general public, Tory MPs today ejected the most popular of the contenders for the crown – Mr Tugendhat, with Mr Cleverly and Mr Jenrick tied and Ms Badenoch the least popular.

But what do the all-important Tory members actually care about?

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YouGov’s AI Topic Quantifier got Tory members to say what qualities they wanted in a leader.

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Top of the list was the members’ desire for “integrity and honesty”, and second is “conservative values”. Only a tiny fraction – 2% – wanted “winning the election.”

This underlines why it remains far from clear what the outcome will be, wherever momentum may be tonight.

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Wyoming proposes bill for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

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Wyoming proposes bill for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Wyoming has become the latest US state to propose a bill for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, just days before Donald Trump’s US presidential inauguration.

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Was Tusk doing Brussels’s bidding with his ‘Breturn’ plea?

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Was Tusk doing Brussels's bidding with his 'Breturn' plea?

When Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is just one point behind you in the opinion polls, the last thing you want to be reminded about is Brexit.

If you’re Sir Keir Starmer, that is.

No doubt Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, was trying to be friendly. After all, as Sir Keir said, they share a passion for Arsenal Football Club.

But when Mr Tusk declared at their joint news conference in Warsaw that his dream was “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”, Sir Keir visibly cringed.

Was it an ambush? Not quite. But it was certainly awkward for the UK prime minister. He stood stiffly and didn’t respond, not once uttering the word “Brexit”.

Mr Tusk, however, has form for bemoaning Brexit. He was, after all, the president of the European Council when the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016.

He might now be in his second spell as Poland’s PM, but his five years at the EU make him the ultimate Brussels insider, who’s never made any attempt to hide his feelings on Brexit.

Prior to the UK referendum, in September 2015, he said Brexit “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilisation in its entirety”.

His most outspoken attack on the UK’s Eurosceptics came in 2019 when the-then prime minister Theresa May was struggling to get a deal. He spoke of “what the special place in hell looks like for those who promoted Brexit“.

Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrive to lay wreaths at The Wall of Remembrance .
Pic: PA
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Sir Keir also visited Ukraine on his trip to Eastern Europe. Pic: PA


Standing alongside Sir Keir, he revealed that “for obvious reasons” they discussed co-operation between the UK and the EU. He recalled that his emotional reaction to the referendum in 2016 was “I already miss you”.

He went on: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.

“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”

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A dream? Or a calculated move? As a Brussels insider, was Mr Tusk speaking for the EU as a whole? Was he doing Brussels’ bidding?

He may have returned to lead his homeland, but he remains a key player in Brussels.

On becoming Poland’s PM in 2023, he ended a dispute with Brussels which unlocked billions of frozen EU funds for his country.

He also orchestrated the return of his centre-right ally Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president.

And Poland has just taken over the rotating presidency of the EU, which means Mr Tusk will be hugely influential once again, chairing meetings and setting agendas.

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Poland is back in the European mainstream. It’s where Mr Tusk would like the UK to be as well.

It’s where, privately, Sir Keir would like the UK to be. It’s just that with Reform UK almost neck and neck with Labour in the polls, he daren’t say so.

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Polish PM says he ‘dreams’ of a ‘Breturn’ as UK seeks new defence pact with ally

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Polish PM says he 'dreams' of a 'Breturn' as UK seeks new defence pact with ally

Poland’s prime minister has said he hopes for the “Breturn” of the UK as a member of the European Union – as he discussed a defence treaty with Sir Keir Starmer.

Donald Tusk, who was hosting the prime minister for discussions on a UK-Polish defence pact in Warsaw, said it was his “dream” that “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”.

Standing alongside Sir Keir at a joint news conference, the Polish premier also said he had discussed greater cooperation between the UK and the EU.

Mr Tusk, who was the president of the European Council during the years that Britain left the EU, said: “For obvious reasons, we also discussed another issue, the cooperation between Great Britain and the European Union.

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“I’m sure you will recall when we learned about the results of the Brexit referendum. I was head of the European Council… at that time. My first emotional reaction was to say: ‘I already miss you.’

“I remember our press briefings as if it was yesterday. I already miss you, that’s what I said.”

He added: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.

“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”

Sir Keir, who held the role of shadow Brexit secretary while Labour was in opposition and backed remain in the 2016 referendum, has repeatedly ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market.

He has, however, said he wants to deepen post-Brexit ties with Brussels

Mr Tusk was speaking after Sir Keir travelled to Poland to discuss a defence pact with the NATO ally – which Mr Tusk said he hoped would be ratified “this year”.

The new treaty is designed to protect Europe from Russian aggression, tackle people-smuggling gangs, and combat misinformation and cyber threats.

Sir Keir was also asked whether the UK’s attendance at a defence summit in Poland earlier this week meant he was in favour of “creating an army” for Europe – to which he replied he was not.

Asked about the E5 defence ministers meeting in Warsaw and whether he supported creating a common European army, Sir Keir said: “The meeting that happened the other day is vitally important. That isn’t about creating armies.

“It’s about how we share our security concerns and build on what we’ve already got.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer visit the Memorial And Museum Auschwitz-Birkenau, a former German Nazi concentration and extermination camp, in Oswiecim, Poland January 17, 2025. REUTERS/Aleksandra Szmigiel
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Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer visit the Memorial And Museum Auschwitz-Birkenau. Pic: Reuters

As part of the defence pact, a £4bn partnership for new air defence systems in Poland has been agreed. The project will be headquartered in Bristol.

“The UK has secured £8bn of defence deals in Poland over the last three years alone, and we’re going further today, opening a new joint programme office in Bristol to deliver our £4bn partnership, to deliver the next generation of air defence systems to Poland,” he said.

He added: “We share an unbreakable commitment to NATO and an unbreakable commitment to Ukraine.”

During his visit to Poland, Sir Keir also made his first visit to Auschwitz, which he described as “utterly harrowing”.

The prime minister visited the former Nazi concentration camp, where he laid a wreath ahead of the 80th anniversary of its liberation.

After he and his wife Victoria, who is Jewish, visited the site, Sir Keir said: “Nothing could prepare me for the sheer horror of what I have seen in this place. It is utterly harrowing.

“The mounds of hair, the shoes, the suitcases, the names and details, everything that was so meticulously kept, except for human life.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer visit the Memorial And Museum Auschwitz-Birkenau, a former German Nazi concentration and extermination camp, in Oswiecim, Poland January 17, 2025. REUTERS/Aleksandra Szmigiel
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Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer visit the Memorial And Museum Auschwitz-Birkenau. Pic: Reuters

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His visit to Poland came following a surprise trip to Kyiv on Thursday, where he reiterated his support for Ukraine and suggested that British troops could be deployed to the country as part of peacekeeping efforts.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, Sir Keir said the UK would play its “full part” in any peace negotiations – including by deploying British troops for peacekeeping – though added that he did not want “to get ahead of ourselves”.

During his visit, Sir Keir also met Polish businesses, including the firm InPost which has announced it will invest a further £600m into the UK in the next five years to grow its operations.

It is thought that the overall £1bn investment by the firm, which operates parcel lockers, could support up to 12,000 new jobs.

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