Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first budget at the end of October, providing the first chance for her to change the fiscal rules.
Upon entering government in July, the government said the Conservatives left it with a £22bn black hole, so the chancellor is expected to use the 30 October budget to raise some of that.
Ms Reeves said in November, when asked if she would consider changing the debt target, she was “not going to fiddle the figures or make something to get different results”.
However, she is being urged to alter the rules to let the government access £57bn, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) thinktank.
And during Prime Minister’s Questions on 9 October, Sir Keir Starmer refused to answer if he agreed with the chancellor’s November statement, prompting some to speculate the government may change the fiscal rules.
Sky News looks at what a fiscal rule is, what the Labour government’s rules are and how they could change.
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What are fiscal rules?
A fiscal rule is a limit or restriction governments put in place to constrain how much they can borrow to fund public spending.
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They can be set by an independent body but since 1997 UK governments have set their own constraints.
Rules apply to the fiscal deficit – the gap between public expenditure and tax revenues in a year – the public debt – the total amount borrowed to finance past deficits – or public spending relative to GDP.
In 2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was set up to remove the Treasury’s ultimate control over the forecasts that underpin fiscal policy.
The Economics Observatory said the OBR’s creation means fiscal rules should be seen as an “expression of a government’s objectives, not something that dictates those objectives”.
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The Labour Party’s manifesto laid out the new government’s fiscal rules, describing them as “non-negotiable”. They are:
1) The current budget must move into balance so day-to-day costs are met by revenues
2) Debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP by the fifth year of the forecast – this was carried over from the Conservative government.
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2:23
Will Rachel Reeves U-turn on her budget promise?
How could the fiscal rules change?
The rules themselves are not expected to change.
However, the chancellor could change how debt is calculated, which could in turn change how much debt the UK officially has and give Ms Reeves room to borrow more.
Ms Reeves told the Labour conference “borrowing for investment” is the only plausible solution to the UK’s productivity crisis.
By changing her definition of debt, she could find up to £50bn in additional headroom.
However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned against borrowing that much money.
Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, said Labour’s pledge not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT, coupled with a promise to balance the current budget, means she will not be able to free up additional resources for day-to-day spending.
Quantitative Easing
An idea the chancellor is said to be weighing up is excluding the £20bn to £50bn annual losses being incurred by the Bank of England winding down its quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying programme.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of England has repeatedly used QE to stimulate the economy and meet the 2% inflation target – creating £875bn of new money in 13 years.
During QE, the Bank buys bonds (debt security issued by the government) to push up their prices and bring down long-term interest rates on savings and loans.
Since November 2022, the Bank has been carrying out quantitative tightening, where it does not buy other bonds when bonds it holds mature, or by actively selling bonds to investors, or a combination of the two.
The aim is not to affect interest rates or inflation but to ensure it is possible QE can happen again in the future, if needed.
In February, the cross-party Treasury committee raised concerns quantitative tightening could have losses of between £50bn and £130bn and said it could have “huge implications” for public spending over the next decade.
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2:41
What will the budget include?
Exclude new institutions
There are suggestions the chancellor could move GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund, both created by Labour, off the government’s books.
Andy King, a former senior official at the OBR, estimates that could unlock a further £15bn for borrowing.
Exclude projects
Another option would be to exclude certain projects from the debt calculation.
Government officials have said they are working on a plan to publish estimates for how much new capital projects could stimulate growth and how much money they would generate directly for the Treasury.
No doubt Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, was trying to be friendly. After all, as Sir Keir said, they share a passion for Arsenal Football Club.
But when Mr Tusk declared at their joint news conference in Warsaw that his dream was “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”, Sir Keir visibly cringed.
Was it an ambush? Not quite. But it was certainly awkward for the UK prime minister. He stood stiffly and didn’t respond, not once uttering the word “Brexit”.
Mr Tusk, however, has form for bemoaning Brexit. He was, after all, the president of the European Council when the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016.
He might now be in his second spell as Poland’s PM, but his five years at the EU make him the ultimate Brussels insider, who’s never made any attempt to hide his feelings on Brexit.
Prior to the UK referendum, in September 2015, he said Brexit “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilisation in its entirety”.
Standing alongside Sir Keir, he revealed that “for obvious reasons” they discussed co-operation between the UK and the EU. He recalled that his emotional reaction to the referendum in 2016 was “I already miss you”.
He went on: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.
“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”
A dream? Or a calculated move? As a Brussels insider, was Mr Tusk speaking for the EU as a whole? Was he doing Brussels’ bidding?
He may have returned to lead his homeland, but he remains a key player in Brussels.
On becoming Poland’s PM in 2023, he ended a dispute with Brussels which unlocked billions of frozen EU funds for his country.
He also orchestrated the return of his centre-right ally Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president.
And Poland has just taken over the rotating presidency of the EU, which means Mr Tusk will be hugely influential once again, chairing meetings and setting agendas.
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Poland is back in the European mainstream. It’s where Mr Tusk would like the UK to be as well.
It’s where, privately, Sir Keir would like the UK to be. It’s just that with Reform UK almost neck and neck with Labour in the polls, he daren’t say so.
Poland’s prime minister has said he hopes for the “Breturn” of the UK as a member of the European Union – as he discussed a defence treaty with Sir Keir Starmer.
Donald Tusk, who was hosting the prime minister for discussions on a UK-Polish defence pact in Warsaw, said it was his “dream” that “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”.
Standing alongside Sir Keir at a joint news conference, the Polish premier also said he had discussed greater cooperation between the UK and the EU.
Mr Tusk, who was the president of the European Council during the years that Britain left the EU, said: “For obvious reasons, we also discussed another issue, the cooperation between Great Britain and the European Union.
“I’m sure you will recall when we learned about the results of the Brexit referendum. I was head of the European Council… at that time. My first emotional reaction was to say: ‘I already miss you.’
“I remember our press briefings as if it was yesterday. I already miss you, that’s what I said.”
He added: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.
“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”
He has, however, said he wants to deepen post-Brexit ties with Brussels
Mr Tusk was speaking after Sir Keir travelled to Poland to discuss a defence pact with the NATO ally – which Mr Tusk said he hoped would be ratified “this year”.
The new treaty is designed to protect Europe from Russian aggression, tackle people-smuggling gangs, and combat misinformation and cyber threats.
Sir Keir was also asked whether the UK’s attendance at a defence summit in Poland earlier this week meant he was in favour of “creating an army” for Europe – to which he replied he was not.
Asked about the E5 defence ministers meeting in Warsaw and whether he supported creating a common European army, Sir Keir said: “The meeting that happened the other day is vitally important. That isn’t about creating armies.
“It’s about how we share our security concerns and build on what we’ve already got.”
As part of the defence pact, a £4bn partnership for new air defence systems in Poland has been agreed. The project will be headquartered in Bristol.
“The UK has secured £8bn of defence deals in Poland over the last three years alone, and we’re going further today, opening a new joint programme office in Bristol to deliver our £4bn partnership, to deliver the next generation of air defence systems to Poland,” he said.
He added: “We share an unbreakable commitment to NATO and an unbreakable commitment to Ukraine.”
During his visit to Poland, Sir Keir also made his first visit to Auschwitz, which he described as “utterly harrowing”.
The prime minister visited the former Nazi concentration camp, where he laid a wreath ahead of the 80th anniversary of its liberation.
After he and his wife Victoria, who is Jewish, visited the site, Sir Keir said: “Nothing could prepare me for the sheer horror of what I have seen in this place. It is utterly harrowing.
“The mounds of hair, the shoes, the suitcases, the names and details, everything that was so meticulously kept, except for human life.”
His visit to Poland came following a surprise trip to Kyiv on Thursday, where he reiterated his support for Ukraine and suggested that British troops could be deployed to the country as part of peacekeeping efforts.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, Sir Keir said the UK would play its “full part” in any peace negotiations – including by deploying British troops for peacekeeping – though added that he did not want “to get ahead of ourselves”.
During his visit, Sir Keir also met Polish businesses, including the firm InPost which has announced it will invest a further £600m into the UK in the next five years to grow its operations.
It is thought that the overall £1bn investment by the firm, which operates parcel lockers, could support up to 12,000 new jobs.