Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CLEVELAND — Guardians center fielder Lane Thomas understands moments like the one presented to him in Game 5 of the AL Division Series on Saturday don’t happen often when an ace like Tarik Skubal of the Tigers is on the mound.
Skubal had stymied Cleveland hitters throughout yet another brilliant outing but finally ran into trouble in the fifth inning of the decisive contest between AL Central foes. After Skubal hit Jose Ramirez with a pitch to bring home the tying run, Thomas stepped up to the plate against the likely AL Cy Young Award winner with the bases loaded.
The crowd at Progressive Field finally began to stir after a sleepy first few innings on offense for the home team. Its mood changed in one swing.
“You dream of at-bats like that as a little kid, and to do it on this stage, in this game, and to come through for the guys in the clubhouse, it feels awesome,” Thomas said after hitting a Skubal 97 mph fastball 396 feet to left field for a grand slam. “About the third inning I was talking with some guys, and I’m like, ‘Whatever we’re doing doesn’t seem to be working. We have to put the ball in play.'”
Thomas’ slam propelled the Guardians to a 5-1 lead in an eventual 7-3 triumph. He became the fourth player in MLB postseason history to hit a go-ahead grand slam in a winner-take-all game, according to ESPN Research.
After Cleveland advanced to the AL Championship Series against the New York Yankees, teammates heaped praise on Thomas during a champagne-and-cigar-filled celebration inside their clubhouse.
“He’s a great ballplayer,” Josh Naylor said of Thomas, who was acquired in a July trade with the Nationals. “I knew that before we picked him up.”
Ramirez added: “When I got hit, I just knew he would come through. I knew he would.”
The home run was hit 2 feet farther than his first-inning blast in Game 1, a 7-0 win, cementing Thomas as the hero of the series. He has come a long way since the trade considering he hit just .111 with a .197 OBP in his first 20 games with his new team.
“We paid a steep price [three prospects] to get him but hopefully it was to lead to moments like this,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said while wiping his eyes of champagne. “He’s a complete baseball player.”
Thomas just needed to get his “feet under him,” according to Cleveland hitting coach Chris Valaika.
“We went through a little evolution with him,” Valaika said. “Once he became one of the guys here, he we fine.”
No matter how he was feeling, facing Skubal was a daunting task. Until he hit Ramirez with the bases loaded, the 27-year-old left-hander had thrown 17 scoreless innings in the postseason, including seven against Cleveland in Game 2. There was no solving him to that point, but Valaika at least wanted his hitters to remember one thing: “Don’t be late on that first fastball.”
Thomas made sure of that and instantly changed the course of the game. His home run helped manager Stephen Vogt navigate his bullpen a bit easier after he removed starter Matthew Boyd after just two innings.
“There were a couple times that we had to kind of go off the script, but at the same time, it was watch the game, see what the game is telling us to do,” Vogt said.
Eventually, the ball landed in closer Emmanuel Clase‘s hand for a potential six-out save. The AL saves leader had been burned for a three-run homer by Tigers designated hitter Kerry Carpenter in Game 2, then was touched for another run in a Guardians win in Game 4.
But Saturday it was time for some redemption.
He struck out Carpenter on an epic eight-pitch at-bat with a runner on in the eighth inning — then stared him down. Seven of the eight pitches he threw were at least 100 mph.
“It went from 100 to 150,” Clase said through an interpreter of his intensity. “I’m a competitor. That was in my mind. That wasn’t my best pitch [in Game 2]. People were saying, ‘He’s my daddy.’ That’s the real Emmanuel Clase. … Even when he was on deck, I kept staring at him because that was my moment. This made it even for us.”
Clase got his moment and a few more as he shut the door in the ninth inning, putting an end to a wholly entertaining five-game series.
“This was an incredible series,” Tigers manager AJ Hinch said. “It’s great for baseball. It’s great for the AL Central.”
And it was great for Thomas, who shook off early struggles to become a Cleveland hero. His home run off one of the best pitchers in baseball has his team four wins from the Fall Classic.
“Definitely had some struggles those first two weeks, or maybe even the month,” Thomas said. “But I’m just thankful they kind of hung with me and let me get my feet under me and kept giving me at-bats. You just have to be thankful for that.”
It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.
Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?
Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.
And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.
But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.
This week’s Anger Index:
There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.
It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)
To look at actual results paints a clear picture.
BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.
Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?
And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.
What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.
There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage
Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage
OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.
Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.
The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.
There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?
Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.
Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential
Auburn & Ark make no sense Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies! Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr
That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.
The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.
SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.
The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.
In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.
But how about this comparison?
Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Pretty similar, eh?
Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.
Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.
Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.
Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.
Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.
Because the top four seeds must be conference champions under the new CFP format, Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Miami (ACC) and BYU (Big 12) would receive first-round byes if the initial rankings were used for the 12-team bracket.
The first-round games would look like this: Boise State at Ohio State, Alabama at Texas, Notre Dame at Penn State and Indiana at Tennessee.
Ohio State remains the consensus betting favorite to win the national title at ESPN BET at +325, slightly ahead of Georgia and Oregon, both at +400. There were no significant changes to the odds to win the national title after the rankings were released.
The SEC and Big Ten each had four teams in the top 12. Undefeated BYU is the lone Big 12 program in the top 12, and unbeaten Miami is the only ACC team in the top 12 after Clemson suffered its second defeat last week, to Louisville at home.
Boise State, whose only loss was by three points at Oregon on Sept. 7, was the highest-ranked team from a Group of 5 conference.
After 10 years with a four-team playoff, CFP selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said the group’s mission hasn’t changed with an expanded bracket.
“The process is the same,” Manuel said. “We rank the best 25 teams, one through 25, and that’s exactly what this process is designed to do from the very beginning.”
Ohio State, coming off last week’s impressive 20-13 victory at Penn State, got the nod for the No. 2 spot over Georgia, according to Manuel, because of its one-point loss at Oregon. The Bulldogs fell 41-34 at Alabama, after trailing by 28 points in the first half, and had closer-than-expected wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State and Florida.
Georgia defeated Texas 30-15 on the road on Oct. 19. The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 in the AP and coaches’ poll at the time.
“You know, we’re splitting hairs in terms of looking at two great teams,” said Manuel, Michigan’s athletic director.
Indiana, which is 9-0 for the first time in program history after beating Michigan State 47-10 last week, was one spot ahead of BYU. The Hoosiers haven’t yet beaten a ranked opponent and have played the 103rd-ranked schedule to this point. They will host defending national champion Michigan on Saturday and play at Ohio State on Nov. 23.
The Cougars are 8-0 heading into Saturday’s game at rival Utah. They won 18-15 at SMU and blasted Kansas State 38-9 at home.
“I mean Indiana, their strength of schedule is not as strong as BYU,” Manuel said. “But what Indiana has done on the field, when we look at those games, they’re winning by double digits, averaging 33 points a game more than their opponents. They’re solid on both sides, offensively and defensively. They’re just a really, really great team, and so is BYU.”
Army (8-0) would have to jump Boise State to earn an automatic selection as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Black Nights haven’t yet defeated a ranked opponent. They play Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium in New York City on Nov. 23.
The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 20 and 21. The four quarterfinal games will be staged at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The two semifinal games will take place at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Jan. 9 and 10.
The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — Alabama A&M linebacker Medrick Burnett Jr. remains hospitalized after sustaining a head injury during a game.
Burnett was still in the hospital Tuesday, according to an Alabama A&M spokesperson. The school hasn’t disclosed details of the injury Burnett suffered during a collision against Alabama State on Oct. 26.
A fundraising request on gofundme.com had raised more than $17,000 of a $100,000 goal as of Tuesday, and the school also set up an emergency relief fund. The gofundme goal included money to help the family pay for housing so they could be with him.
“He had several brain bleeds and swelling of the brain,” Burnett’s sister, Dominece, wrote in a post on the page. “He had to have a tube to drain to relieve the pressure, and after 2 days of severe pressure, we had to opt for a craniotomy, which was the last resort to help try to save his life.”
An update on Saturday said Burnett had had complications, but didn’t elaborate.
Burnett is a second-year freshman from Lakewood, California. He transferred from Grambling State during the offseason.