LCS expert predictions: Yankees or Guardians? Mets or Dodgers?
The 2024 MLB playoffs are down to just four teams after an exciting division series round saw the New York Mets eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers defeat their division rivals, the San Diego Padres, in a thrilling win-or-go-home Game 5.
Now that the matchups are set — Mets-Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians–New York Yankees — it’s time for some (more) predictions! We asked our MLB experts to weigh in on who will advance to the World Series, which players will earn MVP honors in the league championship series and the themes we’ll all be talking about in the week to come. We’ll also have our experts explain why their initial Fall Classic predictions are still in play — or went very wrong.
LCS previews: Mets-Dodgers | Guardians-Yankees | Bracket
Jump to: NLCS | ALCS | Predictions we got right | … and wrong |
National League Championship Series
Los Angeles Dodgers (7 votes)
In how many games: Seven games (2 votes), six games (3), five games (2)
MVP if Dodgers win: Shohei Ohtani (5), Mookie Betts (1), Teoscar Hernandez (1)
Who picked the Dodgers: Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Eric Karabell, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, David Schoenfield
New York Mets (6 votes)
In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (2)
MVP if Mets win: Francisco Lindor (2), Sean Manaea (1), Starling Marte (1), Brandon Nimmo (1), Mark Vientos (1)
Who picked the Mets: Jorge Castillo, Paul Hembekides, Tim Keown, Kiley McDaniel, Jesse Rogers, Jeff Passan
The one thing we’ll all be talking about:
The Mets’ unbelievable ride to the World Series has included beating a division rival (Braves) to clinch their playoff berth, dismissing David Stearns’ former employer (Brewers) in the NL Wild Card Series, and eliminating another division rival and NL pennant favorite (Phillies) in the NLDS. They’ll add defeating the organization Steve Cohen has openly said he has hoped to replicate since buying the Mets before bidding to overthrow their big brother in the Bronx. — Castillo
As much early attention as there will be on the Ohtani vs. Lindor showdown, ultimately the focus is going to end up on Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Whether he makes good decisions or not is pretty much irrelevant. Either the Dodgers come up short again, or they don’t. This of course is not fair, and beating the Padres helped, but Roberts isn’t out of the woods yet. — Doolittle
Walker Buehler is back. It has been a struggle in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but Buehler actually looked pretty good in Game 3 of the NLDS. He experienced one awful, six-run second inning in which he was mostly let down by his defense but still managed to get through the fifth, freeing up a bullpen game the following night. Buehler loves this stage. And he lines up for Games 2 and 6 at Dodger Stadium. He’ll deliver. — Gonzalez
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, and hearing the postgame interviews of the Dodgers, how could anyone have ever wondered if they would win? The gritty, gutty, respectful Dodgers work against all disadvantages stacked before them and win in 5. — Olney
With Freddie Freeman hobbled — presumably for the rest of the postseason — the onus on Ohtani to produce atop the Dodgers’ lineup is greater than ever. After a strong Game 1 of the division series, Ohtani struggled. He will be squarely in the middle of every conversation about the Dodgers, with the primary question being: Can Ohtani carry the Dodgers to the World Series in his first season with the team? — Passan
Just how incredible the trio of Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana continue to pitch. They’ll give the Dodgers fits – and we won’t exactly understand how they’re doing it. — Rogers
Ohtani. We’re going to be talking about the five home runs Ohtani hits in the series — including the go-ahead blast in Game 7. — Schoenfield
American League Championship Series
New York Yankees (11 votes)
In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (6), five games (1)
MVP if Yankees win: Aaron Judge (7), Juan Soto (3), Gerrit Cole (1)
Who picked the Yankees: Jorge Castillo, Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan
Cleveland Guardians (1 vote)
In how many games: Seven games (1)
MVP if Guardians win: Jose Ramirez
Who picked the Guardians: David Schoenfield
The one thing we’ll all be talking about:
The first Subway Series in nearly a quarter-century will arrive with a juicy subplot: ALCS MVP Juan Soto going against the team most everyone believes will be the Yankees’ competition for his services this winter. — Castillo
No matter what happens, the spotlight will be on Aaron Judge. If he goes off, then it’s how he overcame his postseason struggles. If he doesn’t, it’ll be how those struggles have persisted. I wish this didn’t have to be discussed every single time the camera finds Judge during the game, but only he can make it stop. — Doolittle
Here’s one thing we won’t be talking about: Aaron Judge’s slump. Much like he shook off a rough April to put together an MVP regular season, Judge will emerge from a sluggish ALDS — in which he went 2-for-13 with one extra-base hit — to carry the Yankees into the World Series. — Gonzalez
How much can Stephen Vogt get out of his bullpen? The Guardians’ greatest strength this season has been the impermeability of the late innings on account of a tremendous group of relievers, and Vogt leaned on them heavily. Cade Smith ranked fifth in the AL in innings pitched among relievers. Hunter Gaddis was sixth and Emmanuel Clase eighth. Vogt’s ability to ride his relief arms will continue to be the question about the Guardians until their season concludes. — Passan
How much money Juan Soto is going to make. He’ll be key against the Guardians righties in his best playoff series to date. That include a bunch of walks but, hey, getting on is getting on. — Rogers
How the vaunted Cleveland bullpen shut down Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to carry the Guardians to the World Series. — Schoenfield
World Series predictions we’re right about — so far
David Schoenfield: Hey, I had the Dodgers-Guardians at the start of the playoffs — when everyone else was jumping on the Padres bandwagon. Considering the Dodgers advanced without Ohtani doing much, it feels like it’s time for him to have a monster series to carry the Dodgers to the World Series — as the bullpen will do for Cleveland.
Kiley McDaniel: I had the Dodgers in the World Series, but the only problem is … I had them losing to the Orioles. I thought the AL was wide open and leaned toward youth, a deep lineup and an ace, while the NL basically would play out chalk. I’m better at predicting prospects than the playoffs, especially when the series are three- and five-gamers thus far.
World Series predictions gone wrong
Jorge Castillo: Astros over Phillies. I believed the Astros’ experience and starting rotation would carry them through the wide-open American League. Turns out, neither matters much in a three-game series against a red-hot team. As for the Phillies, who could’ve predicted their bats would disappear? Picking against the Mets is foolish at this point.
Tristan Cockcroft: Padres over Yankees. Whether it had happened in the division or championship series — heads up, MLB, you should really restore reseeding to the playoff bracket — Padres-Dodgers was a matchup I regarded as a top-notch league championship, and the Padres got close — within two runs in the deciding game. These Mets have impressed me in October, and it’d sure be fun to forecast another Subway Series, but too many of these feel-good playoff stories tend to run out of gas a little in advance of the finish line.
Alden Gonzalez: I had the Astros and the Padres facing off in the World Series, and neither advanced to their respective championship series. While coming up short, both teams emphasized an important point about October baseball: Even the best offenses can go cold if you have detailed game plans and throw an assortment of high-leverage arms at them.
Eric Karabell: Obviously it was silly to predict a 2022 World Series rematch, so let’s go with 1977, 1978 and 1981 instead. Enjoy, traditionalists!
Tim Keown: Turns out the Padres fell a couple of rounds short of beating the Yankees in the World Series, as I predicted, but who doesn’t love a Subway Series? It doesn’t seem likely the Dodgers — despite their bullpen mastery in the NLDS — can cobble together enough pitching to win a seven-game series.
Jeff Passan: Phillies over Astros. The less said about my World Series prediction the better. I’ll leave it at this: I did not anticipate four relievers with a collective ERA of 2.20 during the regular season — Carlos Estevez, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering — posting a 12.10 ERA in the postseason.
Jesse Rogers: Phillies over TK. My World Series pick went out quickly, which means the team that beat it should be taken seriously. And it helps that the $300 million Mets can play the underdog card again simply because they’re facing the Dodgers. I’ll also lean into this trend: The team that has beaten Milwaukee in the playoffs always wins the pennant. That’s the Mets.
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — Devin Williams has been removed from his role as New York Yankees closer “for right now,” manager Aaron Boone said Sunday.
The move comes two days after Williams endured another rough outing and was booed off the mound at Yankee Stadium in a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 11.25 ERA with career-worst marks in strikeout rate (18.2%), whiff rate (24.1%) and walk rate (15.9%) in eight innings across 10 appearances this season.
“He’s still got everything to be great, right? This is a guy that is in the prime of his career and he’s just going through it a little bit,” said Boone, who informed Williams of the decision Saturday. “I tell our players all the time, you make a career that’s long enough and you’re going to face some challenging moments. You’re going to face some adversity along the way. And good news for Devin is he’s got everything to get through this and come out better on the other side. And that’s my expectation.
“But, for right now, I think it’s best for everyone that we pull him out of that role and try and start building some good rhythm and confidence and momentum and fully expect him to be a central figure for us moving forward.”
Boone said setup man Luke Weaver, who has a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings pitched this season, will assume “a lot of” the team’s save opportunities. Boone maintained he is open to using Weaver in high-leverage spots earlier in games and other relievers to close.
As for Williams, Boone said he won’t have a specific role — whether pitching in low-leverage situations or tight spots just earlier in games — as he seeks to re-establish himself for a team with the ninth-best bullpen ERA in the majors despite his struggles.
The key will be for Williams to avoid falling behind in counts as he did against the three hitters he faced Friday, leading to the home crowd again showering him with loud boos while adding a “We want Weaver!” chant.
Williams wound up surrendering two runs on three hits without recording an out to blow the save and continue his alarming troubles.
The Yankees hope his changeup-fastball mix will baffle hitters again and allow him to return to the pitcher he has been for his entire career.
“Count leverage is a big thing for pitchers, understandably, as it is for hitters,” Boone said. “And I think he’s been behind a number of times. He’s also had it not bounce his way in a number of these games where it’s gotten away.
“But I think the biggest thing for a guy as good as he is, as good as his track record is, and where he is from an age standpoint in the prime of his career, it’s just about, I think, man, having it start to click, getting in a good rhythm and then off we go.”
The Yankees acquired Williams in December to replace Clay Holmes as the club’s closer with one year of team control remaining before reaching free agency. The trade, which sent left-hander Nestor Cortes and prospect Corbin Durbin to Milwaukee, figured to cement the Yankees’ bullpen as one of the best in the majors.
Williams established himself as one of baseball’s premier relievers over six seasons with the Brewers using a singular screwball-like changeup known as “The Airbender.” The right-hander posted a 1.83 ERA with a 39.4% across 241 appearances in Milwaukee. He won the 2020 National League Rookie of the Year Award as a setup man for Josh Hader and made two All-Star teams. His status was undisputed.
But Williams’ Yankees tenure has been turbulent from start. After emerging as the catalyst to have the Yankees’ decades-long no-beard policy changed during spring training, he was booed at Yankee Stadium during his sloppy debut on Opening Day against his former club.
Boone acknowledged the fans’ treatment could have an impact on Williams’ performance.
“I think there’s that adjustment,” Boone said. “Devin’s really been nothing but successful at the big-league level. He’s dominated. So, that’s all part of it. That’s what I talk to these guys all the time about is like, again, you’re going to go through a tough moment. When I came here in 2003 at the trade deadline, Mariano Rivera was getting booed in August. I couldn’t believe it. And then he’s still Mariano Rivera, recoups and goes on to do what he does.
“So, I’m sure there’s some shock to that and some … getting settled. He’s with a new team in a new environment. That’s all part of it. But my reminder to him is you have all the equipment to do this at an elite level and that’s still a reality.”
In other developments, Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year Award winner, started his throwing program Sunday. He has been sidelined since Feb. 28 because of a high-grade lat strain, is on the 60-day injured list and is projected to return in June at the earliest.
Also, right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga, who is returning from internal brace elbow surgery, started his rehab assignment for Class A Tampa on Saturday and threw 11 pitches with one strikeout in a clean inning. He could rejoin the Yankees as early as late May.
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