US election 2024: The demographic divides that will decide whether Trump or Harris become president

Published

1 month ago

October 16, 2024

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Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.

The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.

What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.

Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.

And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.

But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.

And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.

The demographic divides that favour Harris

One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.

That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.

Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.

These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.

Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.

But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.

Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.

The ones that favour Trump

One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.

Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.

Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.

You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.

Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.

Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.

If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.

The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

US

Donald Trump on day one: Pace of change ‘like nothing you’ve seen in history’, warns campaign official

Published

4 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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Donald Trump on day one: Pace of change 'like nothing you've seen in history', warns campaign official

Within hours of taking office, president-elect Donald Trump plans to begin rolling out policies including large-scale deportations, according to his transition team.

Sky News partner network NBC News has spoken with more than half a dozen people familiar with the executive orders that his team plans to enact.

One campaign official said changes are expected at a pace that is “like nothing you’ve seen in history”, to signal a dramatic break from President Joe Biden’s administration.

Mr Trump is preparing on day one to overturn specific policies put in place by Mr Biden. Among the measures, reported by sources close to the transition team, are:

• The speedy and large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants

• Ending travel reimbursement for military members seeking abortion care

• Restricting transgender service members’ access to gender-affirming care

But much of the first day is likely to focus on stopping illegal immigration – the centrepiece of Trump’s candidacy. He is expected to sign up to five executive orders aimed at dealing with that issue alone after he is sworn in on 20 January.

“There will without question be a lot of movement quickly, likely day one, on the immigration front,” a top Trump ally said.

“There will be a push to make a huge early show and assert himself to show his campaign promises were not hollow.”

But Mr Trump’s campaign pledges also could be difficult to implement.

Deporting people on the scale he wants will be a logistical challenge that could take years. Questions also remain about promised tax cuts.

Meanwhile, his pledge to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in just 24 hours would be near impossible.

Even so, advisers based at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort or at nearby offices in West Palm Beach, Florida, are reportedly strategising about ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Following his decisive victory on 5 November, the president-elect has moved swiftly to build a cabinet and senior White House team.

As of Thursday, he had selected more than 30 people for senior positions in his administration, compared with just three at a similar point in his 2016 transition.

Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser in Mr Trump’s campaign, told NBC News: “The thing to realise is Trump is no dummy.

“He knows he’s got two to three years at most to get anything done. And then he becomes a lame duck and we start talking about [the presidential election in] 2028.”

US

Trump pick Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration to be US attorney general

Published

9 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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Trump pick Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration to be US attorney general

Donald Trump ally Matt Gaetz has withdrawn his name from consideration to be the next US attorney general.

Mr Gaetz, a controversial pick to be the country’s top legal official, said his selection was “unfairly becoming a distraction” to the transition of Mr Trump’s administration into the White House.

The Florida Republican had faced significant scrutiny over a federal investigation into sex trafficking allegations involving a 17-year-old girl.

He said in a post on the X social media platform: “There is no time to waste on a needlessly protracted Washington scuffle, thus I’ll be withdrawing my name from consideration to serve as attorney general. Trump’s DOJ (Department of Justice) must be in place and ready on Day 1.

“I remain fully committed to seeing that Donald Trump is the most successful president in history. I will forever be honoured that President Trump nominated me to lead the Department of Justice and I’m certain he will Save America.”

Mr Trump said in a post on his own social media site, Truth Social, that Mr Gaetz had a “wonderful future”.

“I greatly appreciate the recent efforts of Matt Gaetz in seeking approval to be Attorney General,” he wrote.

“He was doing very well but, at the same time, did not want to be a distraction for the administration, for which he has much respect.”

Mr Gaetz previously faced a nearly three-year Justice Department investigation into sex trafficking allegations involving a 17-year-old girl, which ended in February 2023 without him facing any criminal charges.

He has always denied the allegations.

He has also been under scrutiny by the House Ethics Committee over wider allegations including sexual misconduct, illicit drug use and accepting improper gifts.

The inquiry was dropped on Wednesday 13 November when Mr Gaetz left Congress – the only forum where the committee has jurisdiction.

The Senate ethics committee is deadlocked on whether their report can be released.

Mr Gaetz’s withdrawal is a blow to Mr Trump’s push to install steadfast loyalists in his incoming administration and the first sign that he could face resistance from members of his own party.

US

Dad who called 911 for help during break-in killed by Las Vegas police officer

Published

11 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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Dad who called 911 for help during break-in killed by Las Vegas police officer

A 43-year-old man was shot dead by police after calling 911 to report intruders had entered his home in Las Vegas.

Brandon Durham was at home with his 15-year-old daughter when he called the emergency line to report armed intruders were trying to break into his property on 12 November.

Bodycam footage shows Mr Durham struggling with a person over a knife in the moments before he was shot and killed at the scene.

“The loss of life in any type of incident like this is always tragic, and it’s something we take very seriously,” Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Assistant Sheriff Dori Koren said on Thursday.

The force is investigating the incident.

Mr Durham called 911 to report multiple people were outside shooting at his residence in Las Vegas’ Sunset Park neighbourhood, where he had been staying with his 15-year-old daughter, Sky News’ US partner network NBC reports.

It was one of multiple emergency calls reporting a shooting in the area.

Mr Durham then said someone had managed to get into his home through the front and back doors of the property and he was locking himself in the bathroom, according to a police statement from 14 November, two days after the incident.

Officers reported to the scene at approximately 12:40am and could hear screaming from inside the residence.

One of the officers, Alexander Bookman, kicked open the front door and once inside, saw Mr Durham and another individual, later identified as 31-year-old Alejandra Boudreaux, struggling over a knife in a doorway.

Mr Bookman ordered them to drop the knife and about two seconds later, the officer fired the gun and Mr Durham appeared to be struck, the bodycam footage shows.

Both Mr Durham and Mr Boudreaux fell to the ground and the officer fired another five shots. Roughly three seconds are believed to have gone by between the first and last shot, NBC reports.

Attempts were made to save the 43-year-old but he died at the scene.

Ms Boudreaux was taken into custody and is facing charges of home invasion with a deadly weapon; assault with a deadly weapon domestic violence; willful or wanton disregard of safety of persons resulting in death; and child abuse, neglect or endangerment.