Chancellor Rachel Reeves looking to ‘find £40bn’ in budget

Published

9 months ago

October 16, 2024

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Rachel Reeves is looking to fill a £40bn black hole in the country’s finances, Sky News understands.

According to people close to the budget, the gap in funding identified by the chancellor is more than twice what was previously thought.

Politics latest: Stark warning issued over national insurance rise

Ms Reeves has previously said the Conservatives left the new government with a £22bn shortfall, requiring “tough decisions” like axing the winter fuel payment.

This has led to speculation Labour may introduce measures such as a national insurance increase for employers to raise more cash.

The Treasury does not comment on budget speculation.

According to the Financial Times, the £40bn figure represents the funding the chancellor needs to protect key government departments from real terms spending cuts, cover the impact of the £22bn overspend from the last administration and build up a fiscal buffer for the rest of parliament.

The paper said she was eyeing big tax rises to patch up the NHS in particular.

However, the government has left itself with little wiggle room after ruling out a rise in national insurance, income tax and VAT in its manifesto.

Ministers have since said that this meant not “increasing tax on working people” – leaving the door open for the employer element of national insurance to go up.

Budget talk all spin – and we should be used to it

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The “black hole” just got deeper. Or so the chancellor claims.

After telling us for weeks that the funding gap was £22bn, Rachel Reeves says it’s almost double that: £40bn. Fact? Or political propaganda?

She’s told the cabinet the £22bn “black hole inheritance” from the Tories needed to be filled “just to keep public services standing still”.

And Sir Keir Starmer told ministers – at a “political cabinet” with no civil servants present – that the budget would see “tough decisions so we can invest in the future”.

In other words, if the chancellor is to avoid big spending cuts in front line services like health and education, there’ll have to be more unpopular tax rises.

The timing of this apparent deepening of the “black hole” is highly significant. It comes as Labour faces accusations of breaking its manifesto pledge not to increase national insurance.

The new £40bn figure has emerged just hours before Sir Keir faces Rishi Sunak at prime minister’s questions and a potentially embarrassing onslaught over the national insurance tax hike.

A conspiracy theorist might even suggest the new £40bn claim was a cynical attempt by Downing Street to divert attention from the row over the PM meeting Taylor Swift and the star’s blue-light escort.

Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt has already claimed the £22bn figure is a lie. But then George Osborne accused Labour of leaving a £12bn black hole when he became chancellor in 2010.

It’s all spin, of course. We should be used to it by now. Reeves also told the cabinet the government can’t turn around 14 years of decline in one year or one budget.

Yet at the same time she said the budget would “protect working people, fix the NHS and rebuild Britain”. That’s an ambitious boast, if the “black hole” really is £40bn.

A one percentage point increase in the Class 1 rate could raise £8.45bn over the 2025 to 2026 tax year, and a two percentage point hike could raise £16.9bn, according to data compiled by HMRC and EY.

Meanwhile, introducing national insurance on employer pension contributions could raise around £17bn per year if taxed at the same 13.8% rate, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Experts have cautioned that any increase in employer national insurance would mean higher costs for businesses, which could impact their staff and customers.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, told Sky News on Tuesday night that the tax rise could lead to less pay rises and fewer jobs.

The influential thinktank estimates Ms Reeves may need to raise up to £25bn from tax increases if she wants to keep spending rising with national income, and honour Labour’s pledge not to return Britain to austerity.

As well as tax rises, there is also speculation Ms Reeves could change her fiscal rules to enable more borrowing.

It is thought the chancellor could change how debt is calculated, which could in turn alter how much debt the UK officially has and give Ms Reeves room to borrow more.

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer could be ousted as PM within months, two senior Labour MPs tell Sky News

Published

2 mins ago

July 3, 2025

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No 10 backs Chancellor Rachel Reeves and says she 'is going nowhere' after tearful appearance in Commons

Two senior Labour MPs have suggested the prime minister may have to go within months if the government continues to perform poorly.

Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates said his sources – a member of the government and a prominent politician – have “put Sir Keir Starmer on notice”.

Both warned that, if Labour performs badly in next May’s elections across Wales, Scotland and London, it could mark the end of his time in Downing Street.

Coates added: “The level of unhappiness and despair in parts of the Labour Party is so striking that right now, on the first anniversary, I am hearing from ministers in government that Starmer might have to go in months.”

Reform UK is surging in the polls in Wales, while Labour faces a threat from left-wing parties such as the Greens in London.

It comes as the prime minister made it clear that Rachel Reeves has his “complete support” as chancellor and remains integral to his project, Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby understands.

She looked visibly upset during Prime Minister’s Questions, with a spokesperson claiming she had been affected by a “personal matter”.

A day earlier, Sir Keir’s controversial welfare bill was passed despite a sizeable rebellion from Labour MPs, with major U-turns meaning a new £5bn black hole has appeared in the country’s finances.

One senior figure told Rigby that the pair were as “as close politically” as any chancellor and prime minister have ever been.

“She is going absolutely nowhere,” they added.

Ms Reeves’s tears sent markets spiralling, with the value of the pound and long-term government bonds falling sharply.

Later in the day Sir Keir, said Ms Reeves will be chancellor for a “very long time to come”.

The prime minister said it was “absolutely wrong” to suggest her tearful appearance in the Commons related to the welfare U-turn.

“It’s got nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with what’s happened this week. It was a personal matter for her,” he said while speaking to the BBC’s podcast Political Thinking with Nick Robinson.

“I’m not going to intrude on her privacy by talking to you about that. It is a personal matter.”

Asked if she will remain in post, he said: “She will be chancellor by the time this is broadcast, she will be chancellor for a very long time to come, because this project that we’ve been working on to change the Labour party, to win the election, change the country, that is a project which the chancellor and I’ve been working on together.”

He said Ms Reeves has done a “fantastic job” and added: “She and I work together, we think together. In the past, there have been examples – I won’t give any specific – of chancellors and prime ministers who weren’t in lockstep. We’re in lockstep.”

Politics

Starmer to set out 10-year vision for NHS

Published

2 mins ago

July 3, 2025

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Starmer to set out 10-year vision for NHS

Sir Keir Starmer will set out his 10-year vision for the NHS in what the government says is “one of the most seismic shifts” in the health service’s history.

He will pledge three main facets of the plan: moving care into the community, digitising the NHS, and a focus on sickness prevention.

The prime minister will announce neighbourhood health services will be rolled out across England to improve access to the NHS and to shift care out of overstrained hospitals.

PM ‘might have to go in months’ – politics latest

Sir Keir has already promised thousands more GPs will be trained, and to end the 8am “scramble” for an appointment.

He also previously said his government will bring the NHS into the digital age, with “groundbreaking” new tools to support GPs rolled out over the next two years – including AI to take notes, draft letters and enter data.

And he will promise new contracts that will encourage and allow GP practices to cover a wider geographical area, so small practices will get more support.

Unite, one of the UK’s largest healthcare unions, welcomed the plan cautiously but said staff need to be the focus to ensure people are better looked after.

‘Reform or die’

Sir Keir said: “The NHS should be there for everyone, whenever they need it.

“But we inherited a health system in crisis, addicted to a sticking plaster approach, and unable to face up to the challenges we face now, let alone in the future.

“That ends now. Because it’s reform or die.”

He said the government’s plan “will fundamentally rewire and futureproof our NHS, so that it puts care on people’s doorsteps, harnesses game-changing tech and prevents illness in the first place”.

The PM said it would not be an “overnight fix”, but claimed Labour are “already turning the tide on years of decline”, pointing towards more than four million extra appointments, 1,900 more GPs, and waiting lists at a two-year low.

“But there’s more to come,” he promised. “This government is giving patients easier, quicker and more convenient care, wherever they live.”

Neighbourhood health services

The newly announced neighbourhood health services will provide “pioneering teams” in local communities, so patients can more conveniently access a full range of healthcare services close to home.

Local areas will be encouraged to trial innovative schemes like community outreach door-to-door to detect early signs of illness and reduce pressure on GPs and A&E.

The aim is to eventually have new health centres open 12 hours a day, six days a week to offer GP services as well as diagnostics, post-operative care and rehab.

They will also offer services like debt advice, employment support, stop smoking help or weight management.

More NHS dentists

Dentists will also be part of the plan, with dental care professionals part of the neighbourhood teams.

Dental “therapists” will carry out check-ups, treatments and referrals, while dental nurses could give education and advice to parents or work with schools and community groups.

Newly qualified dentists will be required to practice in the NHS for a minimum period, which they have said will be three years.

Politics

‘Trust and confidence lost’ over grooming gang failures in Manchester, watchdog warns

Published

15 mins ago

July 3, 2025

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'Trust and confidence lost' over grooming gang failures in Manchester, watchdog warns

Despite making “significant improvements”, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) has lost the “trust and confidence” of some victims of grooming gangs, according to a report by the police watchdog.

Michelle Skeer, His Majesty’s Inspector of Constabulary, said that since 2019, when GMP started to review its non-recent child sexual exploitation investigations, “the force has improved its understanding and approach to investigating allegations of child criminal and sexual exploitation”.

The document, published today, said police have live investigations into “multi-victim, multi-offender” child sexual exploitation inquiries, involving 714 victims and survivors, and 1,099 suspects.

Grooming gangs scandal timeline

But despite recording improvements, a report by His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) also identified:

• Various training gaps within the investigation team
• Lack of consistency in evaluating case files between social care, health and police
• Failures to initially support victims meant they had “lost trust and confidence” in police

The report was commissioned by the Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham in 2024 to evaluate whether police, councils and health services can protect children from sexual exploitation in the future.

Its release comes days after Sir Keir Starmer announced he was launching a new national inquiry into grooming gangs after previously arguing one was not necessary,

The findings were issued as the final part of the CSE (child sexual exploitation) Assurance Review process which started in 2017. The first three reports examined non-recent child sexual exploitation in Manchester, Oldham and Rochdale.

Mr Skeer said that the force has been trying to improve its service to those who have experienced sexual exploitation, but previous failings have badly affected trust in GMP.

He said: “For some, trust and confidence in the police had been lost, and the force would not be able to rectify their experiences.

“It is vital that improvements are led by victims’ experiences, and if they do come forward, they are supported, protected and taken seriously.”

A recent report by Baroness Casey found a significant over-representation of Asian men who are suspects in grooming gangs in Greater Manchester, adding though authorities are in “denial” more needs to be done to understand why this is the case.

Inspectors also said there were “training gaps” in some investigation teams and issues with data sharing, with local councils sometimes not willing to provide detectives with information, leading to “significant delays in investigations” into grooming gangs.

It cites problems with intelligence provided by Manchester City Council, which took months to arrive and “was so heavily redacted that some pages contained only a few words”, the report said.

GMP is the only force in the country to set up a dedicated team to investigate grooming gangs. Called the Child Sexual Exploitation Major Investigation Team (CSE MIT) it has about 100 staff and a ringfenced budget.

In October 2024, the force told inspectors there were 59 live multi-victim, multi-offender child sexual exploitation investigations, of which 13 were being managed by the CSE MIT.

The report adds: “The force fully accepts that it made mistakes in the past.

“It has taken positive and effective steps to learn from these mistakes and improve how it investigates recent and non-recent child sexual exploitation.”

Separately, the Baird Inquiry published in July 2024 found officers at GMP were abusing their power – making unlawful arrests, unlawful and demeaning strip searches, sometimes treating victims as perpetrators, and traumatising those who have suffered sexual abuse or domestic violence.