In 93 days, it all starts again. From Week 0’s Irish Farmageddon (Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin) in mid-August to the national title game in late January, the 2025 college football season looms. And with transfer portal movement finally slowing down — including spring moves, FBS teams have averaged more than 19 transfers this offseason, up more than 40% from last season — we can finally take a semi-confident look at what’s in store this fall. That means updating our numbers.

Below are updated SP+ projections for the coming season. A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health.

(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.)

Here are the updated rankings:

This time around, I am also experimenting with what you might call a fourth projection factor: coaching changes. Using data discussed in this March column, I have incorporated some adjustments based on who changed head coaches and/or offensive or defensive coordinators and how those teams performed against historic norms last year. Translation: For teams or units that underachieved significantly against their 20-year averages and changed coaches or coordinators (example: Oklahoma’s offense, Purdue’s entire team), that means a slight bump upward. For teams or units that overachieved and lost their coaches or coordinators (example: UNLV as a team or Louisiana Tech’s defense), that means a bump down.

The adjustments aren’t enormous, but when you see that Oklahoma’s projected rating has risen since February, that explains it.

Minimal changes near the top

Thirteen teams moved up or down at least 10 spots compared to February’s rankings, due to either transfer portal addition/attrition, the coaching adjustments mentioned above, or simply me getting a much better read on returning production after official roster releases. At the very top, however, not a ton changed. The top four teams from February continue to occupy the same spots, though Texas hopped Notre Dame and Oregon into the No. 5 hole. Clemson and Michigan rose a bit, Tennessee dropped five spots after Nico Iamaleava’s transfer, and Oklahoma eased into the top 15. (With their ridiculous schedule, however, the Sooners’ projected win total still isn’t great.)

The overall conference hierarchy hasn’t changed much either, though with the Sun Belt getting hit particularly hard by spring transfer attrition, the AAC moves into the top spot among Group of 5 conferences.

Average SP+ rating by conference

1. SEC (15.3 overall, 33.1 offense, 17.8 defense, 60.7% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Texas

2. Big Ten (9.5 overall, 29.1 offense, 19.6 defense, 56.7% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State, No. 7 Oregon

Both the SEC and Big Ten boast three of the projected top seven teams, but if we measure conferences by average ratings, the SEC still has a commanding lead due, as always, to the lack of dead weight. Only two of 16 SEC teams are projected lower than 43rd overall, while the Big Ten has six such teams, including three ranked 70th or worse. That helps explain why, despite playing only eight-game conference schedules, SEC teams occupy 13 of the top 15 spots in the strength of schedule rankings.

3. Big 12 (6.3 overall, 31.0 offense, 24.7 defense, 61.8% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 18 Kansas State, No. 22 Arizona State, No. 26 Texas Tech

4. ACC (5.0 overall, 30.8 offense, 25.8 defense, 59.2% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 8 Clemson, No. 12 Miami, No. 20 SMU

We see a similar dynamic with the Big 12 and ACC — in terms of the quality of its top teams, the ACC (three top-20 teams) seems to have an advantage over the Big 12 (one top-20 team). But the Big 12 has eight top-35 teams compared to the ACC’s four, and while no Big 12 team is projected lower than 66th, the ACC’s average is dragged down by three teams ranking 79th or lower.

5. AAC (-7.8 overall, 26.0 offense, 33.8 defense, 49.4% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 48 Tulane, No. 53 Memphis, No. 63 UTSA

6. Sun Belt (-8.1 overall, 24.9 offense, 33.0 defense, 46.3% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 49 James Madison, No. 74 Louisiana, No. 76 South Alabama

7. Mountain West (-8.6 overall, 23.5 offense, 32.1 defense, 46.5% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 33 Boise State, No. 75 UNLV, No. 83 San Jose State

Three G5 teams are within one point of each other on average, though again, the distribution varies significantly by conference. The MWC is propped up significantly by Boise State, the best projected G5 team, but its average is dragged down by three teams ranking 119th or worse. The Sun Belt has only one such team. The AAC, meanwhile, has a solid five teams in the top 70 … and four teams projected 120th or worse.

8. Conference USA (-13.0 overall, 20.4 offense, 33.4 defense, 50.7% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 69 Liberty, No. 85 Western Kentucky, No. 104 Jacksonville State

9. MAC (-13.7 overall, 19.8 offense, 33.5 defense, 41.1% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 72 Toledo, No. 80 Ohio, No. 91 Buffalo

No conference was hit harder by the portal than the MAC, which has only three teams ranked higher than 94th in the returning production rankings below. That’s going to wreck your averages, though Toledo and Buffalo both escaped too much damage in this regard.

An approximate CFP contenders list

My SP+ strength of schedule ratings are based on a simple question: How would the average top-five team fare against your schedule? Oklahoma’s schedule currently features five of the projected top 11 teams and nine of the top 25, while Notre Dame’s features only two teams projected higher than 30th; SP+ SOS says a top-five team would average a 0.757 win percentage against OU’s schedule (equivalent to 9.1 wins in 12 games) and a 0.894 win percentage against Notre Dame’s (10.7 wins). That’s a pretty big difference.

Schedule strengths obviously vary quite a bit within conferences — not every SEC schedule is Oklahoma’s — but it’s worth acknowledging that when it comes to potential College Football Playoff-worthy résumés, the bar can be set in a different spot based on a team’s conference.

Average strength-of-schedule rating per conference

SEC 0.799 (9.6 wins for a typical top-five team)

Big Ten 0.846 (10.2)

ACC 0.891 (10.7)

Big 12 0.902 (10.8)

AAC 0.956 (11.5)

Sun Belt 0.958 (11.5)

MWC 0.959 (11.5)

CUSA 0.964 (11.6)

MAC 0.965 (11.6)

When it comes to how a top-five team would fare, the average SEC schedule is about one win harder than the average ACC or Big 12 schedule. The Big Ten, with its deadweight teams, is about a half-win harder than those leagues but is still more likely to get lumped in with the SEC than the others in the Power 4.

Long story short: We can confidently say that any 10-2 or better team in the SEC or Big Ten would be a likely playoff contender, just as any 11-1 or better team in the ACC or Big 12 would be. We can therefore create a loose list of likely CFP contenders by looking at the teams most likely to hit those marks.

Odds of an SEC team going 10-2 or better: Alabama 65% (SOS rank: 11th), Texas 61% (12th), Georgia 61% (13th), Ole Miss 38% (23rd), Tennessee 33% (24th), LSU 30% (ninth), Florida 18% (second), Auburn 13% (15th), Oklahoma 9% (first), Missouri 5% (25th)

Odds of a Big Ten team going 10-2 or better: Penn State 82% (SOS rank: 29th), Ohio State 77% (21st), Oregon 73% (32nd), Michigan 62% (38th), Illinois 29% (40th), Nebraska 13% (35th), USC 10% (20th), Indiana 9% (31st)

With a particularly weak nonconference schedule and a particularly good team, Penn State might be in the driver’s seat in terms of playoff qualification, while Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, Michigan and Georgia are all over 60% likely to finish the regular season with two or fewer losses.

Odds of a Big 12 or ACC team (or Notre Dame) going 11-1 or better: Notre Dame 52% (SOS rank: 44th), Clemson 37% (34th), Miami 23% (36th), Kansas State 17% (57th), BYU 7% (64th), Texas Tech 7% (62nd), SMU 6% (45th), Arizona State 5% (61st)

Odds of a Group of 5 team going 11-1 or better: Boise State 37% (SOS rank: 84th), Liberty 17% (136th), Toledo 11% (133rd), Memphis 8% (121st), James Madison 7% (104th)

Notre Dame starts the season with games against Miami and Texas A&M, and while the rest of the schedule features plenty of solid opponents (five are projected between 30th and 47th), if the Irish are 2-0 out of the gates, they’re staring a second straight CFP appearance in the face.

Updated returning production rankings

With updated SP+ projections come updated returning production figures. A reminder: While returning production doesn’t correlate with pure quality, it does correlate well with improvement and regression, particularly at the extremes.

(Note: The production of incoming transfers is mashed into both the numerator and denominator of the returning production formula — so if you lose your starting quarterback but bring in someone else’s from the portal, your returning yardage is probably somewhere around 50%. The production of transfers from schools below the FBS level get half-credit.)

As was the case in February, Clemson leads the way here. And with the way that talent trickles upward in the transfer portal era, it’s probably not a surprise that nine of the top 10 teams in returning production (and 22 of the top 26) are power-conference teams. The P4 boasts 59.6% returning production overall, while the G5 is at 46.8%. That’s a pretty massive gap, one that isn’t likely to shrink anytime soon.

Jeff Blashill has been hired as coach of the Chicago Blackhawks, it was announced Thursday.

The veteran bench boss steps in to replace interim coach Anders Sorenson, who was promoted after the Blackhawks fired Luke Richardson early in the 2024-25 season. Sorenson was thought to be a candidate for the permanent role, and Chicago had also shown interest in University of Denver coach David Carle.

The Blackhawks ultimately landed on Blashill to be the 42nd head coach in franchise history. Blashill, 51, most recently spent three seasons as an assistant coach on Jon Cooper’s staff with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He previously replaced Mike Babcock to take on his first NHL head coaching job with the Detroit Red Wings from 2015 to ’22, attempting to guide Detroit through a lengthy rebuilding process.

After reaching the playoffs in his first year with the Red Wings, Blashill’s teams never improved beyond fifth in the division and, after six consecutive seasons outside the playoff field, he was fired following the 2021-22 campaign. He left the Red Wings with a 204-261-72 record.

Blashill now joins another organization deep into a rebuilding process, providing experience that Chicago has been lacking. The Blackhawks have churned through four different first-year NHL head coaches — Jeremy Colliton, Derek King, Richardson and Sorenson — since Joel Quenneville’s departure in 2018, and now they’ve targeted a new voice with a developmental background.

Blashill has worked in the NCAA, USHL and AHL throughout his career. His time spent under Cooper — the NHL’s longest-tenured head coach — is another asset.

“Jeff is an incredibly smart and talented coach who boasts more than 25 years of coaching experience across developmental leagues, the NHL and the world stage,” general manager Kyle Davidson said in a statement. “He’s thrived when in a position to develop young players and has shown he’s capable of blending that into overall team success, a vision and philosophy we share for where we are today and where we see our team in the future. We couldn’t be more excited for what’s to come under Jeff’s direction.”

The Blackhawks haven’t been to the postseason since 2017, but they didn’t begin their retooling in earnest until the 2021-22 season. Davidson has been at the helm of Chicago’s rebuild since October 2021 and remains in the thick of it, as Chicago has finished 31st overall in the league standings the past two seasons. The Blackhawks have focused on growing through the NHL draft, and selected phenom Connor Bedard first overall in 2023.

RALEIGH, N.C. — The Carolina Hurricanes swear they have enough offense on their team to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

“Easily,” winger Andrei Svechnikov said. “I think we got lots of offense. We got lots of the skill. The greatest thing is that we got the system as well.”

They swear the skeptics are wrong about their offensive challenges. Wrong about a team that has constantly seen its goal-scoring drop under head coach Rod Brind’Amour the later it gets in the postseason. Wrong about a team perpetually seen as the one that can’t score a critical goal to win a tight playoff series.

Wrong about a team that was limited to one goal in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Florida Panthers until Jackson Blake added a garbage-time power play marker in their 5-2 loss — their fifth straight conference finals loss to the Panthers, and 13th consecutive loss in the NHL’s penultimate playoff round, dating back to 2009.

The skeptics will note that Carolina tacitly acknowledged its offensive deficiency while trading for proven playoff scorers in each of the last two seasons — acquiring Jake Guentzel from the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2024, and the now-famous temporary addition of Mikko Rantanen in 2025 — neither of whom are on the current roster.

The Hurricanes believe, quite fervently, that there are enough goals in their locker room to finally play for the Stanley Cup under Brind’Amour this season.

“I’m very confident about that. I mean, we have a ton of skill,” center Sebastian Aho said. “We’ve got a ton of guys who can score goals.”

THE HURRICANES ARE a successful team by many measures. Since 2018-19, when Brind’Amour took over as head coach, they have a .654 regular-season points percentage, which is the third best in the NHL behind the Boston Bruins (.660) and Tampa Bay Lightning (.656).

Their defensive credentials are unimpeachable, as the Hurricanes are in a statistical tie with the Bruins for the best defensive team in the NHL during Brind’Amour’s tenure (2.62 goals against per game). Offensively, they ranked seventh in that span (3.22 goals per game), thanks to players like Aho, Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis.

Carolina has advanced past the first round of the playoffs in every season Brind’Amour has been head coach, including three trips to the Eastern Conference finals. Their defense has been fairly consistent to their regular-season performance during those 85 playoff games: 2.64 goals against per game. The Canes have earned their reputation as a puck-possessing team that absolutely hounds opponents.

“I don’t think really anybody enjoys playing Carolina,” Florida star Matthew Tkachuk said. “They’re a tough team to play against and they make it hard on you every game.”

But while Carolina repeated its regular-season success on defense, the same couldn’t be said for its offense. The Hurricanes averaged only 2.93 goals per playoff game in 85 playoff games under Brind’Amour.

A peek inside the numbers explains why. From 2021 to ’24, the Hurricanes averaged 3.39 goals per 60 minutes (all strengths) in the playoff rounds they’ve won. In the playoff rounds in which they’ve been eliminated, that scoring average drops to 1.91 goals per game.

There are plenty of theories on why this keeps happening to Carolina. The power-play efficiency has contributed to it: In the regular season since Brind’Amour took over, it converted at a 21.7% clip. That has dipped to 16.5% in the playoffs — although this postseason the Canes are converting better in the playoffs (27.8%) than the regular season (18.7%).

Quality of opponents is another: The Hurricanes’ playoff eliminations have come against two great defensive Bruins teams; twice against New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin; and once each against Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, two of the best postseason goaltenders in recent NHL history.

Then there’s the “live by the shot attempt, die by the shot attempt” theory.

“Their style of quantity over quality, and throwing pucks at net from everywhere does not create enough high-danger chances. They don’t get enough traffic to the net prior to their volume shooting to generate rebounds or deflections,” one NHL analytics analyst said. “They aren’t patient. Teams know they volume shoot. They can plan their shot-blocking around that because it’s easy to pick that out.”

The Hurricanes have lost 13 straight games in the conference finals. That is not a misprint: 13 straight games, having been swept by the Penguins (2009), Bruins (2019) and Panthers (2023), and then losing Game 1 to Florida on Tuesday.

Brind’Amour said that in the face of that frustration, the Canes are who they are.

“You guys are going to talk about it, but what do you want to do? You’re not going to change your game. That’s not going to work. I know it doesn’t work. I know that you could try to go and open up and start taking risks or doing different things. That is not going to be the answer,” Brind’Amour said Wednesday. “We go over it over and over: How are we going to create more scoring chances and give up less? That’s the game. That’s what you’re trying to figure out.”

Looking at their 2023 elimination by the Panthers, one sees that the Hurricanes’ shot volume in the earlier rounds (65.7 shot attempts per 60) and in the four-game sweep (65.4) wasn’t all that far off. Their expected goals per 60 minutes improved from 2.9 in the first two rounds to 3.1 in the conference finals. But their offense fell off a cliff — 2.93 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in the first two rounds, down to 0.9 goals per 60 minutes in the conference finals.

One major difference between that series and this one for Carolina: that Andrei Svechnikov is healthy for the latter series.

And he could be the difference-maker they need.

SVECHNIKOV WAS 22 YEARS OLD in 2023. He had scored 30 goals in 78 games in the previous season. He had 55 points in 64 games for a Hurricanes team that would finish with 113 points in the standings. But then disaster struck: Svechnikov tore his right ACL in noncontact fashion on March 11, 2023. There were just over a dozen games left in the regular season. One of the Hurricanes’ biggest offensive difference makers would not be available in the postseason.

“That’s probably the hardest thing in my life, to be honest. Just to go with the boys throughout the whole season and just not able to help them in a playoff,” Svechnikov told ESPN. “It was so hard to come to every game. I remember the feeling sitting in the car and kind of thinking about it: ‘I don’t want to even go to the rink to watch it.'”

As hard as it was, Svechnikov watched his teammates beat the Islanders in six games and eliminate the Devils in five games. Then came the Panthers. Carolina was swept, but the margin of victory in each game was a single goal. They scored only three total goals in the first three losses. Their offensive evaporated.

Svechnikov doesn’t like to think about whether he could have been the difference in some of those close defeats.

“Maybe not, maybe yes. Who knows? But all I’m trying to focus on right now is this series and don’t worry about what’s happened in the past,” he said.

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Andrei Svechnikov puts Canes on the brink with late goal

Andrei Svechnikov lights the lamp to give the Hurricanes a lead late in the third period.

Jarvis was unwavering in his belief that Svechnikov could have made a different then and could make on now against the Panthers.

“You see what he’s done in the playoffs so far,” he said. “The way he impacts the game, not only scoring but the plays he makes with his physicality and his speed. It’s definitely a force we missed when he played them last time.”

Svechnikov has 10 points in his first 11 playoff games this season, including a team-leading eight goals. His impact has been palpable, from his Game 4 hat trick against New Jersey to all but bury them, to goals in three straight games in eliminating Washington — including the game-winner in Game 4.

“He has been phenomenal for us for the first two rounds here, and we’re going to need that to continue,” forward Jordan Martinook said. “He could be a game-breaker. When he’s playing physical, he’s hard to contain.”

Captain Jordan Staal has seen Svechnikov mature as an offensive force, and has been impressed with his consistency during this current run.

“He’s just been great. No question about it,” said. “He’s been on it every night. Being physical. Shooting the puck. Being the playoff player we know he can be.”

Carolina has been certainly searching for that “playoff player.”

THE SWEEP BY THE PANTHERS in 2023, with the margins of defeat so infinitesimal, left the Hurricanes searching for ways to finally advance past the conference finals.

Not exactly known for NHL trade deadline blockbusters — especially ones for players that could leave in free agency — Carolina traded for Pittsburgh winger Jake Guentzel in 2024. He won a Stanley Cup with the Penguins in 2017, and has established himself as a dependable postseason performer.

With nine points in 11 games during the 2024 playoffs, he lived up to that billing, but it wasn’t enough to get Carolina past the Rangers in the second round. He opted not to sign with Carolina, who traded his rights to Tampa Bay for a third-round pick. Guentzel had six points in five games for the Lightning in their first-round loss to the Panthers.

New GM Eric Tulsky, who replaced Don Waddell after he left for the Columbus Blue Jackets, took an even bigger swing this season in trading leading scorer Martin Necas in a package to land Mikko Rantanen, the Colorado Avalanche star and pending free agent who was at a contract impasse with the team.

Tulsky made the case that, from a systems perspective, Rantanen was an ideal fit.

“We play a system that has us battling for pucks along the walls, trying to make plays at the net front and he’s just one of the best in the league at some of those things,” he said at the time.

Tulsky said the Hurricanes’ identity could be seen in the way that Staal performs, driving play with his size and strength in Brind’Amour’s system. “Mikko can do all of that, but with really high-level skill to go with it,” the GM said.

Rantanen arrived at the same time as former NHL MVP Taylor Hall, whom Carolina acquired from Chicago. The intentions were clear: Bolstering the offense of a team that’s needed more of it in the playoffs.

“Ultimately, one of the things that we felt our team could stand to have was a little bit of an upgrade in skill and offensive punch,” Tulsky said.

What happened next was a defining moment of the 2024-25 season. Rantanen told the Hurricanes he would not sign a contract extension with them. Rather than have him for a run at the Stanley Cup before he left for free agency, the Hurricanes traded him to Dallas for a return package that included promising young forward Logan Stankoven.

Through 13 games, Rantanen led the Stanley Cup playoffs with 19 points.

“It definitely changes things when you have a guy like that, a star player. It changes the identity of your team,” Dallas coach Pete DeBoer said. “I think we’ve been built around four lines and waves of pressure and work. Probably more like a Carolina-type identity. I think when you add a player like that, you have to take on a little bit of a different identity.”

Stankoven didn’t really see the parallels between his old team and the Hurricanes. He also didn’t think Carolina needed a one focal point player to find success in the postseason.

“The great thing that I’ve noticed so far is we’re not relying on one line to score goals. If you look at our lineup, we have everybody scoring goals and contributing at different times, which is great,” he said. “Obviously it’s awesome to have star players. Edmonton’s got [Connor] McDavid and [Leon] Draisaitl and on and on. We do have star players too, but everyone kind of chips in at the right time and that’s what you need to get through the playoffs.”

This is the prevailing message from the Hurricanes in the playoffs. Like in previous runs, it’s not about the individual, but the team solving their offensive challenges.

“I think all four lines have contributed at times in these playoffs, and that’s what you need,” Hall said. “I feel like that’s my role is to come in and play good Hurricanes playoff hockey, play the right way and whatnot, but we have to get contributions offensively from up and down the lineup. It’s just not going to work if it’s one or two lines carrying us.”

“It’s definitely all four lines,” Aho said. “You’ve seen it already in these playoffs: It’s not one line that carries the production. it’s the whole lineup. That’s how we’ve been built. We like it that way.”

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Sebastian Aho slots in a goal for Hurricanes

Sebastian Aho answers with the Hurricanes’ fourth goal of the second period to tie the game 4-4 vs. the Devils.

History hasn’t been kind to the Carolina offense late in the playoffs. Game 1 against the Panthers didn’t inspire much confidence from the box score, although Jarvis believes they generated enough looks to feel good about the series.

“I’m not concerned. It’s going to come,” he said. “Obviously, we have to find different ways, but like I said before, it’s about executing and that’s something we’ve been preaching. We know when we get the chances that they’ll go on eventually go in.”

Like his teammates, Jarvis doesn’t buy the idea that this Hurricanes team can’t score enough to finally play for the Stanley Cup under Brind’Amour.

“I have all the confidence in the world [about our offense]. More than enough. I think everyone’s bought into the way we play, which might be a little bit different from years past,” he said. “I love where our team’s at right now.”

Despite not having a Jake Guentzel or a Mikko Rantanen on the ice?

“We got everyone we need in this room,” Jarvis said. “Everyone wants to be here. That’s what we love.”