Government borrowing is at its highest since the pandemic due to public sector pay rises and the high cost of borrowing, official figures show.
Last month had the third-highest September borrowing on record, coming only behind 2020 and 2021, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
While more money came in from tax, it was outweighed by increased spending which the ONS said was partly due to higher interest rates on the debt and public sector pay rises.
Spending was £2.1bn higher in September than the same month a year ago, figures showed.
But the gap between what the government took in and what it spent was less than expected by some.
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Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had anticipated public sector borrowing could have reached £17.5bn but was in fact £16.6bn. The sum excludes borrowing by public sector banks.
Independent forecasters at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), however, had not thought such a rise was likely. The numbers came in £1.5bn higher than it had forecast.
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The amount paid out in benefits fell by £2bn as the automatic winter fuel payment for pensioners was cut and one-off cost of living payments ended. While the benefit is not paid until November the payments and eligibility are determined in September.
What are the government saying?
The chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones defended the pay rises by saying strikes would cost the economy more.
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“Strikes cost at least £3bn last year, so it was the right thing to do to end those damaging disputes,” he said.
“We have inherited a £22bn black hole in the country’s public finances, including no plan to fund pay deals for millions of public sector workers… Resolving this blackhole at the budget next week will require difficult decisions to fix the foundations of our economy and begin delivering on the promise of change.”
Ford’s UK boss has called on the government to provide consumer incentives of up to £5,000 per car to boost demand for electric vehicles and help the industry hit challenging climate targets.
Lisa Brankin, chair of Ford UK & Ireland, told Sky News that direct support for consumers to purchase zero-emission vehicles is crucial if the industry is to remain viable and hit challenging net zero milestones.
Last week, amid increased industry pressure, the government launched a “fast-track” review of its Zero Emission Mandate (ZEV), which sets targets for the proportion of new vehicles that must be electric – set at 22% this year for cars and 10% for vans.
Manufacturers say those targets are unrealistic, and a £15,000 fine per non-compliant vehicle is too harsh. Vauxhall owner Stellantis cited the ZEV as a factor in the closure of its Luton plant announced last week.
Speaking at Ford‘s Halewood plant on Merseyside at the launch of the Puma Gen-E, the electric version of its best-selling small SUV, Ms Brankin said consumer demand has fallen far below that envisaged when the mandate was set.
“The mandate is a really aggressive trajectory to 2030 and the phase out of new petrol and diesel vehicles. For us to get a return on our investment as a manufacturer – we have spent £380m here [at Halewood] and £2bn in Cologne – we need and want to sell electric vehicles. The problem is customers are not moving as we would want.
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“The number one thing we want is direct customer incentives, perhaps a scrappage scheme, we have been calling for a cut in VAT on electric vehicles. Something that will incentivise customers to buy EVs, and incentivise the van and car sales that we badly need in the UK.”
Asked if the incentives would need to be in the order of £2,000-£5,000 to be effective, she said: “That is a good question, but it would need to be in that region. It will need to be substantial.”
The Puma Gen-E is significant for Ford because it is the company’s smallest and cheapest EV, with a starting price of just under £30,000, bringing it closer to mass market reach than its existing models.
The Halewood plant has just begun making the Gen-E power unit, used in both the Puma and the E-Transit Custom, the electric version of Ford’s 60-year-old commercial vehicle. They say it will now power Britain’s best-selling car and van.
It comes as the entire European car industry faces challenges in the transition away from internal combustion, including softening consumer demand, stiff Chinese competition and the threat of tariffs from the incoming second Trump administration.
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Ms Brankin defended Ford’s move into electric vehicles, a transition that thus far has failed to replicate its former dominance of the UK market for petrol and diesel vehicles.
She also said state support for its UK plants at Dagenham in Essex and Halewood was dwarfed by the company’s investment.
“The support we’ve had from the government is still far below the amount that we’ve poured into our business to make the EV transition. And for us to have a sustainable business it’s important that it’s profitable for us going forward if we are going to protect the jobs we’ve already created.
“We have got a really good range of electric vehicles, we are just not seeing customers making the switch as fast as we would want them to.”
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has admitted efforts to overhaul unreliable data on Britain’s jobs market may not be ready until 2027.
The ONS confirmed it is now “unlikely” it will be able to introduce a revamped version of its Labour Force Survey (LFS) – which is the official measure of employment and unemployment in the UK – by mid-2025, leaving policymakers in the dark over the true state of the UK workforce.
Governor of the Bank Andrew Bailey said it was “a substantial problem” that the exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.
While the labour market is going to be “the key” to future rate cuts, another memberof the interest rate decider Professor Alan Taylor told the MPs of the Treasury Committee last month: “We don’t necessarily have the best statistics there.”
The government too has built policy around the belief that the UK has a high number of people out of work and not looking for work.
Just last week the government announced £240m for reforms to “get Britain working”.
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3:44
‘The benefits system can incentivise and disincentivise work’
But on the same day, the Bank’s chief economist said labour force participation “has now reached the point where participation is broadly in line with a natural level it should be”.
The UK had been thought to be an outlier compared to its neighbours in that the number of people in work is lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Respected thinktank the Resolution Foundation had also said that there was no rise in inactivity based on HM Revenue & Customs data and that employment had been underestimated by 930,000 since 2019.
Also revised due to changes in population is the employment estimate, which is 0.1% higher than first thought, the ONS said.
The ONS said it continued “to advise caution when interpreting changes” in things like unemployment and economic inactivity.
More than a year ago in October 2023, the ONS temporarily suspended publication of its official labour force survey due to low response rates after the pandemic and began releasing experimental estimates that relied on tax and other data sources.
A group of Spanish restaurants headed by a Michelin-starred chef is on the brink of collapse after filing a notice of intention to appoint administrators.
Sky News understands that Iberica, which operates a handful of sites in London and Leeds, filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators on Tuesday.
RSM, the professional services firm, is understood to have been lined up to handle the insolvency.
Iberica, whose parent Iberica Food and Culture will now have up to 10 days’ breathing space from creditors, counts Nacho Manzano, a prominent chef from the region of Asturias in north-western Spain, as its head chef.
It opened its first restaurant in Marylebone, central London, in 2008 and has since expanded to other parts of the capital.
In 2016, it opened a site in Leeds.
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If the company is unable to avoid administration proceedings, it will become the latest restaurant business to succumb to the growing financial pressures facing the industry.
TGI Fridays was sold during the autumn in a pre-pack insolvency deal, while the operator of Pizza Hut’s UK dine-in outlets is in the process of trying to seek a buyer.
Restaurant bosses were among hospitality executives who wrote to Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, last month, to warn that tax-raising measures in her Budget would trigger job losses and business closures.
A spokeswoman for RSM said the firm was unable to comment, while Iberica has been contacted by email for comment.