Connect with us

Published

on

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its projection for UK growth this year by 0.4% to 1.1% – the largest upward revision for any advanced economy.

In a boost to Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she prepares to travel to Washington for the IMF’s annual meeting this week, its latest world economic outlook predicts strengthening growth as “falling inflation and interest rates” stimulate demand.

The IMF’s improved view of UK performance is a significant increase on its July projection of 0.7% growth this year, and up by 0.6% from its April assessment.

Its projection of 1.5% of GDP growth in 2025 remains unchanged.

Responding to the announcement Ms Reeves, said: “It’s welcome that the IMF has upgraded our growth forecast for this year, but I know there is more work to do. That is why the budget next week will be about fixing the foundations to deliver change, so we can protect working people, fix the NHS and rebuild Britain.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chancellor on P&O row, growth and workers’ rights

The US economy meanwhile is projected to have grown by 2.5% this year, an increase of 0.2% on the July projection, before falling back to 2.2% in 2025.

By contrast, the Euro area is projected to grow by just 0.8% this year, down 0.1%, rising to 1.1% next year, a downgrade of 0.3%.

The IMF’s more optimistic view of the UK economy comes after official figures in the last fortnight showed a return to growth in August following two months of stagnation, and a dip in inflation below the Bank of England‘s target of 2% last month for the first time in three-and-a-half years.

Ms Reeves’s visit to Washington comes a week before she delivers her first budget, a crucial moment for her stewardship of the economy and the new Labour government.

A critical time for the chancellor

The chancellor is understood to be aiming to generate around £40bn in tax rises and spending cuts in order to deliver some targeted public spending increases and build some headroom into forecasts for the coming years.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

She is also expected to change the calculation of government debt to allow her to increase borrowing for investment in infrastructure projects.

Many of the issues with which she is grappling domestically are mirrored in those identified by the IMF in its latest assessment of the global economy.

Global problems

The report’s authors conclude that the “global battle against inflation has largely been won”, with average global rates due to settle at 3.5% next year, lower than the average between 2000 and 2019.

Having proved “unusually resilient” in avoiding recession as inflation fell from its near double-digit peak, they say the global economy now faces the challenge of improving growth prospects while simultaneously stabilising debt levels and “rebuilding much-needed fiscal buffers”.

The IMF identifies a range of challenges including regional conflicts including those in the Middle East and Ukraine; the need to loosen monetary restraint while tightening fiscal policy; a potential slowdown in China; and the associated risk of protectionism and trade wars, with the threat of tariffs imposed by the US and Europe on Chinese goods.

Warning to ‘stabilise debt’

In a warning that may be noted in the Treasury and No 11, the IMF says that after years of elevated borrowing in response to the pandemic and post-COVID economic adjustment, governments need to stabilise debt and “rebuild much-needed fiscal buffers”.

This has to be done gradually and credibly to retain the confidence of markets and enable states to continue to borrow at affordable rates.

Continue Reading

Business

Ford’s UK boss demands taxpayer incentives of thousands of pounds to drive electric future

Published

on

By

Ford's UK boss demands taxpayer incentives of thousands of pounds to drive electric future

Ford’s UK boss has called on the government to provide consumer incentives of up to £5,000 per car to boost demand for electric vehicles and help the industry hit challenging climate targets.

Lisa Brankin, chair of Ford UK & Ireland, told Sky News that direct support for consumers to purchase zero-emission vehicles is crucial if the industry is to remain viable and hit challenging net zero milestones.

Last week, amid increased industry pressure, the government launched a “fast-track” review of its Zero Emission Mandate (ZEV), which sets targets for the proportion of new vehicles that must be electric – set at 22% this year for cars and 10% for vans.

Money latest: Drivers could save £50 on cover after compensation changes

Manufacturers say those targets are unrealistic, and a £15,000 fine per non-compliant vehicle is too harsh. Vauxhall owner Stellantis cited the ZEV as a factor in the closure of its Luton plant announced last week.

Speaking at Ford‘s Halewood plant on Merseyside at the launch of the Puma Gen-E, the electric version of its best-selling small SUV, Ms Brankin said consumer demand has fallen far below that envisaged when the mandate was set.

“The mandate is a really aggressive trajectory to 2030 and the phase out of new petrol and diesel vehicles. For us to get a return on our investment as a manufacturer – we have spent £380m here [at Halewood] and £2bn in Cologne – we need and want to sell electric vehicles. The problem is customers are not moving as we would want.

More on Electric Cars

The electric van and Puma use the power unit produced on Merseyside. Pic: Ford
Image:
The electric van and Puma use the power unit produced on Merseyside. Pic: Ford

“The number one thing we want is direct customer incentives, perhaps a scrappage scheme, we have been calling for a cut in VAT on electric vehicles. Something that will incentivise customers to buy EVs, and incentivise the van and car sales that we badly need in the UK.”

Asked if the incentives would need to be in the order of £2,000-£5,000 to be effective, she said: “That is a good question, but it would need to be in that region. It will need to be substantial.”

The Puma Gen-E is significant for Ford because it is the company’s smallest and cheapest EV, with a starting price of just under £30,000, bringing it closer to mass market reach than its existing models.

The Halewood plant has just begun making the Gen-E power unit, used in both the Puma and the E-Transit Custom, the electric version of Ford’s 60-year-old commercial vehicle. They say it will now power Britain’s best-selling car and van.

It comes as the entire European car industry faces challenges in the transition away from internal combustion, including softening consumer demand, stiff Chinese competition and the threat of tariffs from the incoming second Trump administration.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Govt to U-turn on electric car policy?

Read more from Sky News:
Jaguar defends rebrands as new electric car revealed
Musk blocked again over ‘world’s largest pay rise’
Zilch in talks to raise £150m

Ms Brankin defended Ford’s move into electric vehicles, a transition that thus far has failed to replicate its former dominance of the UK market for petrol and diesel vehicles.

She also said state support for its UK plants at Dagenham in Essex and Halewood was dwarfed by the company’s investment.

“The support we’ve had from the government is still far below the amount that we’ve poured into our business to make the EV transition. And for us to have a sustainable business it’s important that it’s profitable for us going forward if we are going to protect the jobs we’ve already created.

“We have got a really good range of electric vehicles, we are just not seeing customers making the switch as fast as we would want them to.”

Continue Reading

Business

Overhaul of official workforce data may take another two years – ONS

Published

on

By

Overhaul of official workforce data may take another two years - ONS

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has admitted efforts to overhaul unreliable data on Britain’s jobs market may not be ready until 2027.

The ONS confirmed it is now “unlikely” it will be able to introduce a revamped version of its Labour Force Survey (LFS) – which is the official measure of employment and unemployment in the UK – by mid-2025, leaving policymakers in the dark over the true state of the UK workforce.

Money blog: Christmas decorations could slow down your WiFi

Governor of the Bank Andrew Bailey said it was “a substantial problem” that the exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.

While the labour market is going to be “the key” to future rate cuts, another member of the interest rate decider Professor Alan Taylor told the MPs of the Treasury Committee last month: “We don’t necessarily have the best statistics there.”

The government too has built policy around the belief that the UK has a high number of people out of work and not looking for work.

Just last week the government announced £240m for reforms to “get Britain working”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘The benefits system can incentivise and disincentivise work’

But on the same day, the Bank’s chief economist said labour force participation “has now reached the point where participation is broadly in line with a natural level it should be”.

The UK had been thought to be an outlier compared to its neighbours in that the number of people in work is lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Respected thinktank the Resolution Foundation had also said that there was no rise in inactivity based on HM Revenue & Customs data and that employment had been underestimated by 930,000 since 2019.

Also revised due to changes in population is the employment estimate, which is 0.1% higher than first thought, the ONS said.

The ONS said it continued “to advise caution when interpreting changes” in things like unemployment and economic inactivity.

More than a year ago in October 2023, the ONS temporarily suspended publication of its official labour force survey due to low response rates after the pandemic and began releasing experimental estimates that relied on tax and other data sources.

Continue Reading

Business

Upmarket tapas chain Iberica on brink of collapse

Published

on

By

Upmarket tapas chain Iberica on brink of collapse

A group of Spanish restaurants headed by a Michelin-starred chef is on the brink of collapse after filing a notice of intention to appoint administrators.

Sky News understands that Iberica, which operates a handful of sites in London and Leeds, filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators on Tuesday.

RSM, the professional services firm, is understood to have been lined up to handle the insolvency.

Money latest: Drivers could save £50 on cover after compensation changes

Iberica, whose parent Iberica Food and Culture will now have up to 10 days’ breathing space from creditors, counts Nacho Manzano, a prominent chef from the region of Asturias in north-western Spain, as its head chef.

It opened its first restaurant in Marylebone, central London, in 2008 and has since expanded to other parts of the capital.

In 2016, it opened a site in Leeds.

More from Money

If the company is unable to avoid administration proceedings, it will become the latest restaurant business to succumb to the growing financial pressures facing the industry.

Read more from Sky News:
Jaguar defends rebrands as new electric car revealed
Musk blocked again over ‘world’s largest pay rise’
Zilch in talks to raise £150m

TGI Fridays was sold during the autumn in a pre-pack insolvency deal, while the operator of Pizza Hut’s UK dine-in outlets is in the process of trying to seek a buyer.

Restaurant bosses were among hospitality executives who wrote to Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, last month, to warn that tax-raising measures in her Budget would trigger job losses and business closures.

A spokeswoman for RSM said the firm was unable to comment, while Iberica has been contacted by email for comment.

Continue Reading

Trending