Even Musk seems to realize that Tesla’s future pricing numbers are made up
Tesla’s pricing numbers for its future vehicles are all over the place and changing by the minute. Just today, CEO Elon Musk revealed that the promised $30k price for Robotaxi would be “post-incentive” – before saying the car would cost $25k just minutes later.
During Tesla’s Robotaxi event earlier this month, the company revealed that the autonomous-focused vehicle would be available to end users for just a $30k base price.
While this isn’t quite the $25k car we’ve been promised for many years, the $30k pricetag for a fully autonomous vehicle did seem quite attractive to many people.
…If it were real. And it turns out it was not.
Today on Tesla’s earnings call, Musk made multiple conflicting statements about the pricing of the Tesla Robotaxi, suggesting that even he has no idea how much the vehicle will cost when it comes out.
The first question asked on the call went thusly:
Is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier, and how does it align with your AI and product roadmap?
We just reported on this earlier today, when the shareholder letter said that more affordable models will come out next year. We came away questioning which model Tesla is talking about – will it be the Model Y refresh, or an actual new model that we haven’t yet heard anything about?
In response to this shareholder question, Tesla added a third option into the mix: maybe they were talking about Robotaxi? (which, it should be noted, almost everybody except Musk recognizes is not actually coming out next year)
Tesla answered the question in this way:
As Elon and Vaibhav both said, it’s our plan to meet that in the first half of next year. Our mission has always been to lower the cost of our vehicles to increase the adoption of sustainable energy and transport. Part of that is lowering the cost for current vehicles. The next stage in that fits into our AI roadmap which is when we bring in Robotaxi which lowers the initial cost of getting into an EV
Then, immediately after this discussion about Robotaxi, Musk immediately added:
It’ll be like, with incentive, sub 30k. Which is kind of a key threshold.
And this is actually new information. Prior to this, Tesla had only said that the vehicle would start at $30k – without specifying if this was pre- or post- incentive.
If it’s post-incentive, that means the Robotaxi will have a base price of potentially $37,499 – which is in fact not measurably more affordable than other cars Tesla has made before.
Previously, the Model 3 has sort-of-kind-of been available for $35k as an “off-menu” item, but it’s questionable whether anyone was able to take advantage of that brief pricing window. But Tesla still has a blog post on its site announcing this vehicle’s availability.
More realistically, the cheapest available Tesla has been the $38,990 Model 3 from last year, which was available with an upfront $7,500 federal tax credit. That puts it at just $1,400 more expensive than the future $37.5k Robotaxi, a less than 4% difference in price.
So the Robotaxi does not look to be significantly cheaper than past models, and the $30k price seems to be based on incentives.
Notably, these are incentives that Musk is actively working to end. Musk has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to harm EVs, aiming his money at a candidate who asked oil companies to bribe him to end EV incentives, whose Project 2025 platform calls for an end to the bill that created these EV incentives, and who has hallucinated about ending an EV mandate that doesn’t exist.
So it might be hard to meet that $30k number if Musk has committed so much money and time towards ending the incentive that he just acknowledged his pricing promise relies on.
But maybe it’s not actually going to be $37.5k after all?
Because, later in the same call, when asked when Tesla would have a $25k model vehicle (like the one Musk recently cancelled) that isn’t the Robotaxi/Cybercab, Musk said: “having a regular 25k model is pointless” and then later in the same answer, said about the Robotaxi that “it’ll cost on the order of constructively 25k. So it is a 25k car. And you will be able to buy one exclusively if you want.”
So, despite just minutes ago clarifying that the Robotaxi would be $30k after incentive, he went on to say that it would instead cost $25k, and didn’t mention whether incentives are involved in that pricing number.
This $5k change in pricing over the course of just a few minutes recalls a similar passage in Tesla’s 2024 shareholder meeting, wherein Musk suggested that Optimus robots (which are currently operated remotely by humans) could eventually be worth some $20 trillion to Tesla’s market cap. A few minutes later, Musk said he thinks it would be worth $25 trillion to Tesla’s market cap – a jump in valuation larger than the total value of any company in the history of the world, and over the course of just a few minutes no less.
All of this suggests something that many observers have recognized for a while: when a number comes out of Elon Musk’s mouth, it may or may not have any bearing in reality. That’s certainly been the case on release dates at many points in Tesla’s past, and to Musk’s claims on FSD interventions. But it has also applied to prices, and that seems to apply again here.
The difference this time, however, is that instead of picking one fake price and sticking to it, even after it’s apparent that it won’t be the case, Musk now seems to change his fake numbers from sentence to sentence.
Perhaps he’s finally realizing the thing everyone else realized long ago.
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If you haven’t noticed, Genesis is quickly making a name for itself in the US. The luxury automaker now has 60 sales outlets as it expands into new US states. With new EVs launching, Genesis is eyeing a bigger share of the US luxury market.
Hyundai Motor Group’s Genesis brand is quietly emerging as a powerhouse in the US luxury market. Genesis marked its entry into the luxury segment in 2008 as a Hyundai-branded model.
In 2015, Hyundai announced Genesis would become an independent luxury brand. Since launching its first vehicle in the US, the luxury brand’s sales have surged from 7,000 in 2016 to over 69,000 last year. It even outsold Nissan’s Infiniti.
According to Genesis, this is just the start. The Korean luxury brand wants an even bigger slice of the market as it eyes rivals like Porsche.
A big reason behind the brand’s confidence is its new lineup of stylishly electric models. Genesis sells three EVs in the US: The GV60, Electrified G80, and Electrified GV70.
After introducing the Electrified GV70 just last year, the electric SUV is already Genesis’ top-selling EV in the US. According to Kelley Blue Book, Genesis sold 2,343 electric GV70 models in the US through September.
Genesis eyes a bigger share of the US luxury market
Altogether, the luxury brand’s EV sales reached over 4,600 through the first nine months of 2024, topping Porsche (4,291) and Volvo (3,644).
Genesis made a statement at the LA Auto Show, unveiling the updated 2026 Electrified GV70. The luxury electric SUV now includes more range and an NACS port so drivers can charge at Tesla Superchargers. It will go on sale in the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, Genesis showcased its new GV60 Magma Concept at the event, its first dedicated high-performance EV. The brand sees its Magma performance brand rivaling that of Geman luxury brands like Mercedes AMG, BMW M, and Audi RS.
The Genesis GV60 Magma EV will launch next year, spearheading the brand’s “expansion into the realm of high-performance vehicles.”
Genesis enhanced the battery and motor while fine-tuning the chassis, thermodynamics, and profile for more power and efficiency.
It also features an aggressive new design, sitting much lower and wider than the current GV60 model. Genesis added a Magma-exclusive sound system to give it a sports car-like feel in the cockpit.
In April, we got our first look at the G80 EV Magma concept, which could be a potential challenger to Tesla’s Model S Plaid and the Porsche Taycan GT Turbo.
The luxury brand is expected to launch its flagship electric three-row SUV next year, the GV90. Genesis previewed the ultra-luxury EV in March after unveiling the Neolun concept.
Genesis now has 60 sales bases in the US, with new stores in Washington, Minnesota, New York, and Florida. It’s also building 30 in Canada as it expands its presence in the North American luxury market.
The luxury brand is opening a new dedicated design center in California. The “Genesis Design California” will open in the first half of 2025 as it builds out its US network.
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A rumor spreading like wildfire on social media claims BYD will be taking over NIO (NYSE: NIO) as the EV giant gobbles up market share in China. The rumor was posted by a suspected BYD employee, but NIO is denying the claim.
BYD acquiring NIO would be a massive move as China’s leading EV maker continues to dominate the market. But that’s not going to happen.
According to CnEVPost, NIO’s assistant vice president for branding and communications, Ma Lin, denied the rumors that BYD is taking over the company on Friday.
Ma posted a screenshot on social media asking BYD’s general manager of branding and PR, Li Yunfei if the person who posted the fake rumor was an employee.
Earlier today, the suspected employee claimed BYD and NIO were setting up a joint venture. In a Weibo post, the suspect said BYD would have majority control of the partnership with a 51% share while NIO would get the remaining 49% ownership.
Ma told Li that if it was, in fact, a BYD employee, he needed to issue an official clarification and apologize. If not, they can get the police involved together. Li also denied the rumors, saying the claim was seriously untrue.
NIO denies rumors that BYD is taking over the company
This is not the first time rumors surfaced that BYD will be taking over NIO, but because it is a suspected employee, the post has garnered more attention.
BYD is on a major hiring spree as it ramps up production to meet the higher demand. The EV giant now has over 900,000 employees, making it by far the largest A-share listed company in China.
After selling over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in a single month in October, BYD’s surge is heating up as the EV giant expands overseas for growth.
October was BYD’s fifth consecutive record sales month as it closes in on auto leaders like Ford in global deliveries.
NIO is also gaining momentum, with sales topping the 20,000 mark for the sixth straight month in October. With output of its new lower-priced Onvo L60 electric SUV ramping up, NIO expects to continue seeing higher demand.
Ma said on Friday that NIO’s “recent situation is quite good.” The company’s head of PR added, “Cash flow turned positive in the third quarter, gross profit improved in October, earning an extra RMB 100 million, and Onvo (deliveries) will exceed 10,000 in December.”
NIO is launching its third brand, Firefly, with deliveries kicking off in the first half of 2025. The company expects sales to double next year as it works to become profitable by 2026.
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Hyundai Motors is recalling 145,235 EVs and other “electrified” vehicles in the US, citing concerns about a loss of driving power, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Friday.
The NHTSA announced this morning that the recall affects selected IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 EVs, as well as certain luxury Genesis models, including the GV60, GV70, and G80 electrified variants, from the 2022-2025 model years, Reuters reported.
It looks like the issue stems from “the integrated charging control units in these vehicles, which may become damaged and fail to charge the 12-volt battery. This malfunction could lead to a complete loss of drive power, posing safety risks for drivers,” the NHTSA stated.
If you’re an owner of one of these Hyundai models dating 2022-2025, stay tuned. Hyundai has not yet provided a timeline as to when affected vehicles will be repaired.
To make that happen, the company’s dealers will inspect and replace the charging unit and its fuse if necessary, NHTSA said. Free of charge, of course.
Importantly, no crashes, injuries, fatalities, or fires due to this issue have been reported in the US, Hyundai reported.
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