Chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C is ‘virtually zero’ on current trends, UN warns
The chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C is “virtually zero” on current trends, according to the UN’s environment body.
This year’s Emissions Gap Report finds that emissions of greenhouse gasses in 2023 were the highest on record.
More concerning, the rate of growth since 2022 was nearly twice as fast as in the decade preceding the COVID pandemic.
This comes despite decades of climate talks and a boom in wind and solar power.
The analysis finds that the current trajectory in carbon emissions puts the world on course for a potentially catastrophic 3.1C of warming this century – compared to pre-industrial times.
While emissions in many wealthy countries, including the UK, the US and the EU have peaked, they are not falling anywhere near fast enough to make up for rapidly growing emissions in places like China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.
A chart showing the likely scenarios for global temperatures in the event that CO2 emissions can be cut
‘Crunch time is here’
“Climate crunch time is here,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
“We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges.”
The report urges nations meeting at the UN climate summit next month in Baku, Azerbaijan, to come forward with emissions-cutting commitments that don’t continue to ignore the agreement they all signed in Paris in 2015.
The Baku Olympic Stadium will host the COP29 conference.
Pic: Reuters
The Paris Agreement, signed by 196 countries, pledged to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and try and prevent it from rising beyond 1.5C.
The UNEP analysis of current carbon-cutting commitments finds only one country, Madagascar, has submitted a more ambitious one since last year.
And only a handful are ambitious enough to actually slow global warming.
If all current pledges were implemented in full the world would still warm by between 2.6C-2.8C this century.
Given many countries, including the UK, are yet to implement policies to fully meet their targets, the current trajectory takes the world closer to a potentially catastrophic 3.1C of warming.
“Central warming projections indicate that the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C would be virtually zero,” the report concludes.
A chart showing how emissions have increased over time
‘This is a battle we cannot afford to lose’
It’s not all bad news however.
An analysis of the cost of measures to reduce emissions finds there is technical potential for cuts of 31 gigatons of greenhouse gasses by 2030 – around half of the total emitted globally in 2023 – and 41 gigatons by 2035.
This “massive effort” to deploy zero-carbon electricity generation like wind and solar and reverse deforestation trends would bridge the gap needed to put the world back on track to keep warming below 1.5C.
However, years of inaction have made this challenge harder, the report finds.
Emission cuts must be 7.5% steeper every year until 2035 to meet 1.5C and 4% annually to keep to 2C.
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“Maybe we won’t get all the way to 1.5C but 1.6C is a lot better than 1.7C,” says Dr Anne Olhoff, the report’s lead author.
“Basically, every fraction of a degree matters and this is a battle we cannot afford to lose.”
Countries have until 2025 to submit new carbon-cutting pledges under the Paris Agreement.
But to deliver the cuts required, the main challenge – and one that will be central to talks at the upcoming climate summit in Baku – is technical and financial assistance from rich countries to poorer ones that don’t bear historical responsibility for global warming.
Progress, says Dr Olhoff, “hinges on immediate and relentless action.”
“Most of all, of course, it depends on political leadership.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” after the group launched a missile attack on the country’s main international airport.
A missile fired by the group from Yemen landed near Ben Gurion Airport, causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.
“Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran,” Mr Netanyahu wrote on X. “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
Israeli police officers investigate the missile crater. Pic: Reuters
The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly halted flights and commuter traffic at the airport. Some international carriers have cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv for several days.
Four people were lightly wounded, paramedic service Magen David Adom said.
Air raid sirens went off across Israel and footage showed passengers yelling and rushing for cover.
The attack came hours before senior Israeli cabinet ministers were set to vote on whether to intensify the country’s military operations in the Gaza Strip, and as the army began calling up thousands of reserves in anticipation of a wider operation in the enclave.
Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the group fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at the airport.
Iran’s defence minister later told a state TV broadcaster that if the country was attacked by the US or Israel, it would target their bases, interests and forces where necessary.
Israel’s military said several attempts to intercept the missile were unsuccessful.
Air, road and rail traffic were halted after the attack, police said, though it resumed around an hour later.
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Yemen’s Houthis have been firing missiles at Israel since its war with Hamas in Gaza began on 7 October 2023, and while most have been intercepted, some have penetrated the country’s missile defence systems and caused damage.
Israel has previously struck the group in Yemen in retaliation and the US and UK have also launched strikes after the Houthis began attacking international shipping, saying it was in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.
The Israeli Air Force is regarded as one of the country’s most elite units.
So, when hundreds of current and former pilots call for an end to the war in Gaza to get the hostages out, Israelis take notice.
This month, 1,200 pilots caused a storm by signing an open letter arguing the war served mainly “political and personal interests and not security ones”.
The pilots’ protest letter
Part of the letter translated
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the original letter was written by “bad apples”.
But Guy Paron, a former pilot and one of those behind the letter, said the Israeli government had failed to move to phase two of the ceasefire deal with Hamas, brokered under US President Donald Trump.
That deal called for a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of all the remaining hostages. Mr Netanyahu continues to argue that the war must continue to put pressure on Hamas.
Mr Paron said the (Israeli) government “gave up or violated a signed agreement with Hamas” and “threw it to the trash”.
“You have to finish the deal, release the hostages, even if it means stopping that war,” he argued.
It’s not the first time Israeli pilots have taken up a cause. Many of them also campaigned against Mr Netanyahu’s 2023 judicial reforms.
“In this country, 1,000 Israeli Air Force pilots carry a lot of weight,” Mr Paron added.
“The Air Force historically has been the major force and game-changer in all of Israel’s wars, including this current one. The strength of the Air Force is the public’s guarantee of security.”
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Anti-government campaign spreads
Now, the open letter campaign has spread to other parts of the military.
More than 15,000 people have signed, including paratroopers, armoured corps, navy, special units, cyber and medics. The list goes on.
Dr Ofer Havakuk has served 200 days during this war as a combat doctor, mostly in Gaza, and believes the government is continuing the war to stay in power.
He has also signed an open letter supporting the pilots and accused the prime minister of putting politics first.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the authors of the original letter as ‘bad apples’. Pic: AP
He said Mr Netanyahu “wants to keep his coalition working and to keep the coalition together. For him, this is the main purpose of the war”.
A ceasefire could lead to the collapse of the prime minister’s fragile far-right coalition, which is opposed to ending the war.
Threat of dismissal
The Israeli military has threatened to dismiss those who have signed protest letters.
We met a former pilot who is still an active reservist. He didn’t want to be identified and is worried he could lose his job.
“This is a price that I’m willing to pay, although it is very big for me because I’m volunteering and, as a volunteer, I want to stay on duty for as long as I can,” he told us.
The controversy over the war and the hostages is gaining momentum inside Israel’s military.
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It is also exposing deep divisions in society at a time when there is no clear sign about how the government plans to end the war in Gaza, or when.
The renewed war in Gaza over the last year and a half followed deadly Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw around 250 taken hostage.
More than 51,000 people have been killed in Gaza during the Israeli military’s response, many of them civilians, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run Ministry of Health.
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