China’s steel exports expected to falter in 2025 as pain from tariffs spread
JIUJIANG, CHINA – JUNE 17: A worker manufactures seamless steel gas cylinders for export at the workshop of Sinoma Science & Technology (Jiujiang) Co., Ltd. on June 17, 2024 in Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province of China.
Wei Dongsheng | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s steel exports will soon hit an eight-year high, before sweeping tariffs sink in and drag down the industry in 2025, industry watchers said.
As the biggest exporter of steel, China accounts for about 55% of the world’s steel production. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to smash through the 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.
Strategists at Macquarie Capital predicted that China’s steel exports will reach 109 million tons this year, before declining to 96 million tons in 2025. Trade tariffs could further curb China’s steel exports, “albeit this may require a while to play out,” analysts from the the investment bank told CNBC.
Their predictions were echoed by analysts interviewed by Citigroup. China’s steel shipment is “skewed to the downside” from next year and onwards due anti-dumping measures, Ren Zhuqian, an analyst from steel consultancy Mysteel, said in a Citigroup note this month.
Foreign markets have been particularly crucial amid a domestic supply glut, as China’s economy grapples with a prolonged property crisis and slowdown in manufacturing activities.
In September, China’s steel exports jumped 26% from a year ago to 10.2 million tons, surpassing the 10-million ton a month benchmark that was last hit in June 2016. In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 21.2% year on year to 80.7 million tons, according to the customs data last week.
After hitting a record high of 112 million tons in 2015, the country’s steel exports had been on a multi-year slide before it started improving in 2020.
Steel export growth has accelerated ever since, propelled by a lack of domestic demand, even as overall export growth in China slowed sharply in September on the back of a series of disappointing data that pointed to a weak economy.
Anti-dumping ‘Wac-A-Mole’
Floods of cheap steel from China had sparked concern among its trading partners of unfair competition for domestic steelmakers. More and more have ramped up anti-dumping measures, including hefty tariffs.
Steel producers in importing countries have been “under massive strain,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, especially those in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Thailand expanded anti-dumping duties to 31% on hot-rolled coil, high-strength steel used for critical infrastructure construction, from China in August. Mexico imposed a nearly 80% tariff on some Chinese steel imports late last year.
This month, Brazilian government imposed 25% tariffs on all steel products from the country. And Canada’s 25% surtax on Chinese steel products, which it announced in August, came into effect on Tuesday.
These kinds of protectionism measures tend to have short-lived impacts, said Tomas Gutierrez, head of data at consultancy Kallanish Commodities, as steel exporters resort to measures such as “circumvention,” shaking off the China-label by making transits through a third-party country.
We see a ‘whac-a-mole’ scenario: when one country starts to limit steel imports from China, Chinese steel producers are likely to redirect them to another country until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.
Chim Lee
Senior analyst, Economist Intelligence Unit
But Vietnam’s ongoing anti-dumping probe into hot-rolled coil could derail China’s export momentum as it “impacts a much higher volume of Chinese steel,” Gutierrez said.
Vietnam is a major importer of Chinese steel, consuming about 10% of the country’s steel exports in 2023, according to a Mysteel report. Other top destination markets include Thailand, India and Brazil.
Last month, Indian government ordered tariffs of between 12% and 30% on some steel products imported from China and Vietnam, escalating an anti-dumping duty it imposed on Chinese steels last year.
“We see a Whac-A-Mole scenario,” EIU’s Chim said. The tariffs lead Chinese steel producers to redirect to alternative markets, “until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.”
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration called for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel in April, and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said he could raise tariffs by 60% on Chinese goods if re-elected next month.
But the impact of these threats from Washington would be rather limited, as less than 1 percent of Chinese steel exports, worth $85 billion, were shipped to the U.S. in 2023.
Dwindling demand
For the first time in six years, the World Steel Association this month forecast that China’s domestic steel demand this year would account for less than half of global demand, citing “the ongoing downturn” in the country’s real estate sector.
China’s property-related steel demand may not see a substantial improvement until 2025 or 2026, EIU’s Chim said, as Beijing seeks to curb new housing supplies while clearing existing housing inventories.
New construction starts, the most steel intensive part of the property construction process, will continue to be very weak, Chim said.
Meanwhile, he added, state-led infrastructure investment, which has increasingly pivoted away from roads and railways to energy infrastructure, is unlikely to fill the gap left by home builders.
More domestic steelmakers had scaled back production given poor profitability on steel sales. Almost three-quarters of Chinese steel companies reported losses in the first six months this year, with many at risks of bankruptcy.
China’s production of medium-thick hot-rolled coil — a proxy of flat steel products — fell 5.4% from the prior month in September, and 6.4% on year, according to S&P Global, which cited official customs data.
On escalating trade tensions, a spokesperson for China’s customs administration said a majority of Chinese steel products were to meet domestic demand, before receding that the hard-rolled coils “would have broad appeal in overseas market,” due to continuous innovation and product upgrades in the industry.
A possible tax crackdown
Beijing’s possible crackdown on value-added tax could make matters worse for China’s steel industry.
This year, steel mills have been under pressure from regulators over allegations that they skirted taxes to make exports even cheaper.
Authorities had set up an investigative team to crack down on these “illegal” steel exports, Luo Tiejun, vice president of the state-backed Iron and Steel Industry Association, said in a meeting last week.
“If China really followed through [with the investigation], Chinese exports would be much less competitive and export volumes could come down,” Gutierrez said. But the government may not have the “confidence” for that yet.
Japanese equipment giant Komatsu has added a not-so-giant electric excavator to its growing lineup of battery-powered construction equipment. The new Komatsu PC20E-6 electric mini excavator promises a full day of work from a single charge.
Komatsu says the design of its latest mini excavator was informed by data sourced from more than 40,000 working days of comparably-sized diesel excavators. The company found that, in 90% of its global customers’ mini excavator deployments, these vehicles are in active use for less than 3.5 hours per day.
“This defined the target for the required, reliable working time with the excavator,” reads the Komatsu web copy. “This result makes it possible for Komatsu to offer an attractively priced machine with a performance that exactly matches the requirements.”
Keeping costs down are relatively conservative specs. Komatsu chose to power the PC20E-6 with a 23.2 kWh battery pack sending electrons to an 11 kW (~15 hp), high-torque electric motors. Not exactly super impressive on paper, but the machine has an operating weight of 2,190 kg and enough juice for up to four (4) hours of continuous operation.
More than enough, in other words, to have completed 90% of of those 40,000 work days the company analyzed.
Getting it done
If, for some reason, that four hours’ runtime isn’t enough, an on-board charging option for 230V and 3kW charging power compatible with various plug adapters is standard, with an external DC quick charger for 400V and 12 kW charging as optional. In either case, it won’t be long before the machine is back at work.
To help the later adopters sleep well about their battery-powered investments, the PC20E-6 ships with Komatsu’s E-Support maintenance program, which includes free scheduled maintenance by a Komatsu-trained technician, a 3 year/2,000 hour warranty on the machine, plus a 5 year/10,000 hour warranty on the electric driveline. The company says the battery should last 10 years.
“The Komatsu E-Support customer program is included free of charge with every market-ready electric mini excavator and offers exclusive machine support,” said Emanuele Viel, Group Manager Utility at Komatsu Europe. “The bottom line is that the risk for the end customer is significantly reduced, especially when it comes to exploring the electrification advances in the industry.”
Komatsu hasn’t released official pricing quite yet, but has revealed that the P20E-6 will begin series production this October.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Komatsu.
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Tesla has unexpectedly terminated a contractor’s contract at Gigafactory Texas, resulting in the layoff of 82 workers who were supporting the automaker’s production at the giant factory in Austin.
MPW Industrial Services Inc., an Ohio-based industrial service provider specializing in cleaning and facility management, has issued a new WARN notice, confirming that it will lay off 82 workers in Texas due to Tesla unexpectedly ending its contract with the company.
Here are the details from the WARN notice:
- State / agency: Texas Workforce Commission (TWC).
- Notice date: August 27, 2025.
- Employees affected: 82
- Likely effective date: September 1, 2025
- Context from the filing/letter: layoffs tied to an unexpected termination of a major customer contract (Tesla—Gigafactory Texas, 1 Tesla Road); positions include 61 technicians, 7 team leads, 7 supervisors, 7 managers; no bumping rights; workers not union-represented.
In April 2024, Tesla initiated waves of layoffs at the plant, resulting in the dismissal of more than 2,000 employees in Austin, Texas.
Since then, Tesla’s sales have been in a steady decline. While the automaker is expected to have a strong quarter in the US in Q3 due to the end of the tax credit, sales are expected to decline further in Q4 and the first half of 2026.
Many industry watchers have expected Tesla to initiate further layoffs due to the situation.
Electrek’s Take
We may be seeing the beginnings of a new wave of layoffs at Tesla, as the automaker typically starts with contractors.
To be fair, Tesla could also potentially end the contract unexpectedly for other reasons, but the timing does align with the need to cut costs and staff ahead of an inevitable downturn in US EV sales.
I think it’s inevitable that we start seeing some layoffs. I think Tesla will have to slow down production in the US to avoid creating an oversupply, especially in Q4-Q1.
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First, it was e-bikes, offering an efficient, effective, and low-cost way for teens and just about everyone to zip around town, yet drawing the temper of suburban traditionalists. Now golf carts are the new public enemy number one in suburbia, at least if you ask the growing number of online groups where residents complain about these small electric vehicles “clogging” their streets.
But beyond the hand-wringing, golf carts and their more sophisticated cousins known as Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs) or Low Speed Vehicles (LSVs), are quietly becoming a popular alternative to cars for short trips around US cities and suburbs.
While most people still associate golf carts with retirement communities in Florida or slow rides across 18 holes, street-legal versions have been around for the last few decades.
But these aren’t your grandpa’s bare-bones carts, complete with a golf pencil clip. Many now come with DOT seat belts, lights, turn signals, mirrors, backup cameras, and speed limiters that allow them to operate legally on roads up to 35 mph, as long as they meet all the federal requirements for Low-Speed Vehicles (LSVs).
That means such vehicles are legally allowed to operate like cars, trucks, bicycles, or motorcycles on the vast majority of residential streets and a surprising portion of urban grids. In other words, for grabbing groceries, school drop-offs, or cruising to a friend’s house, they’re a practical, cheaper, and far greener substitute for firing up a 5,000-pound SUV.
Golf carts have been slowly taking off for years, but the pandemic accelerated the trend. Sales of golf carts and LSVs spiked as families looked for safe, outdoor transportation and an easy way to get around their neighborhoods. Now, in cities all over the country, the sight of parents driving their kids to school or running errands in a cart is increasingly common. In some towns, petitions have even popped up with hundreds of residents asking for local ordinances to legalize them on more streets, according to the Daily Mail.
Of course, not everyone is thrilled. There’s growing backlash against the increase in golf carts on streets, with many residents calling them a “plague” and complaining that they’re taking up space on the roads, in parking lots, or creating unsafe conditions. While rare, there have been serious accidents too, with a handful of tragic cases highlighting the dangers of mixing small, lightweight carts with full-size vehicles. Critics argue that carts lack the crash protection of cars and don’t always fall under homeowners’ insurance policies if an accident happens.
But for every critic, there’s a supporter pointing out that golf carts take cars off the road, save money on fuel, and are no more dangerous than scooters or e-bikes – modes of transport that already share the streets. And major golf cart makers have been happy to respond to the demand with boosted sales and new models. Companies like E-Z-GO, Club Car, WAEV, Kandi, and others are all rushing new models to the market as more suburban commuters discover that their next electric vehicle might just cost a fraction of what they thought it would – and come with a better breeze, too.
Electrek’s Take
If I didn’t know any better, I’d say it’s like the Karens are just following me around to poo-poo on any alternative vehicle I happen to drive that week. They’ve hit all my favorites. Pretty soon, they’ll be coming for my electric tractors, too!
But seriously, this feels like déjà vu. The same arguments we’ve heard for years against e-bikes are now being recycled against golf carts: too unsafe, too disruptive, too “different” from the car-centric status quo.
But the reality is, again, quite the same as e-bikes. These are small electric vehicles that make a ton of sense and are totally street legal, at least when they’re built correctly to conform to the proper laws.
They come with a lot of the same benefits, too. They’re cheap to operate, easy to park, perfect for short trips, and they prevent larger cars from needlessly clogging residential streets. Will they ruffle feathers among the kind of folks who have had one too many frisbees land in their yard? Perhaps. But much like e-bikes, their popularity is only going one direction – up.
I leave you with a few images of perhaps my favorite of all, the Kandi Mini. The nay-sayers can pull it from my cold, dead, golf
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