Passan: Yankees need to wake up before this dream World Series ends as a New York nightmare
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
LOS ANGELES — The New York Yankees came into the World Series carrying themselves like dawgs and have spent the first two games playing like dogs. To beat the Los Angeles Dodgers takes firm constitution, clean execution and an ability to meet the moment. The Yankees have crumbled, stumbled and bungled. They look like an American League team in a National League world. And unless New York figures out how to reawaken the best version of itself, this dream World Series will be over in time for kids to go trick-or-treating in Yankees uniforms with paper bags over their heads.
For the majority of Game 2 on Saturday night, a 4-2 Dodgers victory that gave Los Angeles a 2-0 advantage in the best-of-seven series, the Yankees appeared overwhelmed. They mustered one hit over the first eight innings. Their captain’s postseason disappearing act resulted in three more strikeouts. Their seeming starting-pitching advantage melted away with three home runs allowed. And it left them needing to do what few others have. Of the 54 teams that started the World Series with two-game deficits, only 10 recovered to win a ring.
“No one said it’s going to be easy,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “It’s a long series, and we need to make it a long series now. We won’t flinch. We’ve just got to keep at it.”
Keeping at it necessitates a number of fixes, all of which are possible. Doing so on the fly, against a team as complete as the Dodgers, takes “urgency, will, grit,” Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo said. “We’re going to have to will it to happen.”
Rizzo understands this better than anyone in the Yankees’ clubhouse. In 2016, his Chicago Cubs trailed Cleveland three games to one before rallying to win their first championship in 108 years. One untimely error could have doomed their season. One faulty pitch. One uncompetitive at-bat. Teams that dig themselves holes eradicate their margins for error. It’s hard enough to beat the Dodgers. Doing so with self-inflicted wounds won’t play.
It starts with Aaron Judge, the best hitter in the world, who at the most inopportune time has found his nadir. In the first two games of the World Series, Judge has swung the bat 24 times. He has missed on 14 of those swings, punching out six times in nine at-bats. His OPS this October is .605, down more than 500 points from his MLB-best 1.159 regular season. He is pressing, desperate to find the swing that carried the Yankees through a season with more ups than downs.
“I’ve got to step up,” Judge said, and it’s true. For all of Juan Soto‘s greatness — and this October has reinforced just how great he is — he and Giancarlo Stanton cannot be the only Yankees who are constant threats. Twice this postseason teams have opted to intentionally walk Soto to face Judge, and unless Judge contracts his strike zone and fixes his swing, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will be incentivized to continue doing so. Throw Judge spin — 10 of the 14 swings and misses have come on curveballs, sliders and sweepers — and continue to win.
At the same time, Judge is not the only New York hitter coming up short. The Yankees are losing because they have been allergic to contact. The Yankees have swung at 147 pitches and missed 52 times. The Dodgers have swung at 133 pitches in the first two games and missed just 24. It is the defining statistic of the first two games, particularly considering how comparatively infrequently the Yankees did so against Kansas City and Cleveland during their first two rounds: 601 swings, 154 misses.
It’s not just a matter of the Yankees’ offense awakening. They need better pitching, too. And for Game 3, that falls on starter Clarke Schmidt. “I’m not trying to go out there and be a hero,” Schmidt said, and while he’s correct that trying to play hero ball is a path to nowhere good, a savior must emerge from somewhere.
With Shohei Ohtani cleared to play in Game 3 (he suffered a subluxation of his left shoulder on a slide during an attempted steal late in Game 2), the Dodgers can stack their lineup with left-handers to prey on mistakes from a right-hander whose arsenal runs almost entirely glove-side. Schmidt’s cutter-slider-curveball-heavy array doesn’t feature a changeup to keep hitters honest, and the Dodgers’ ability to fight off pitches — they’ve fouled off 39.1% of their swings in the World Series compared to the Yankees’ 29.9% — leaves any pitcher susceptible.
As if that’s not enough to remedy, the Yankees must do all of that while avoiding the blunders that doomed them in Game 1. No more misplaying balls in the outfield. No more kicking the ball around and allowing the Dodgers to take extra bases. No baserunning follies that give away outs.
“I feel like we’ve been playing really good baseball,” Yankees third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. said. “The guys still feel very confident at the plate on the field, and we still feel really confident in our pitching, so I feel like we’re just going to go home and feed off the crowd’s energy.”
Here’s the reality: The Yankees have not been playing really good baseball. They have been OK, and OK is not enough to beat the Dodgers. Championships demand top-to-bottom excellence, from the batter’s box to the pitcher’s mound to the field to the dugout, where Boone’s decision-making could mean the difference between a ring and a naked finger.
His choice to call on left-hander Nestor Cortes to pitch the 10th inning of Game 1 loomed over Game 2. Boone stood by his decision to go with Cortes, whose balky left arm had kept him out for more than five weeks before he allowed Freddie Freeman‘s walk-off grand slam, over lefty Tim Hill, who has been one of the Yankees’ best relievers. If there was any regret, Boone said, it was that he didn’t stick with closer Luke Weaver, who had needed just 19 pitches to secure five outs, to protect a 3-2 lead.
The Yankees finally came alive in the ninth inning of Game 2, lacing three singles off Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen and loading the bases with one out and a two-run deficit. Then Anthony Volpe struck out swinging at a Treinen sweeper nearly a foot off the plate. And pinch hitter Jose Trevino, in for the platoon advantage against left-hander Alex Vesia, lofted a fly ball to center field for the 27th out.
“I loved the at-bats there at the end,” Boone said. “The compete, the fight.”
It was too little, too late, and now the Yankees are in a precarious position. For six months, they reigned as the best team in the AL. They cruised through the first two rounds, beating teams with payrolls a third of their size. The Dodgers are not the Royals and the Guardians. They are a machine, and over two games they have handed the Yankees as many losses as New York had the rest of October combined.
The Dodgers also are not infallible. San Diego pushed Los Angeles to the brink of elimination. The New York Mets took two games against them. The Dodgers’ Game 3 starter, Walker Buehler, hasn’t pitched since Oct. 16, they are primed to throw a relievers-only Game 4, and the Yankee Stadium crowd is bound to invigorate New York. The path to an even series is there. This is the Yankees’ first World Series since 2009, and they are at risk of blowing it spectacularly. They can win. They can convince Soto that he needs to spend the rest of his career in the Bronx. They can solidify Judge’s legacy. They can capture their 28th championship.
All they need is to back up their season-long bark with some World Series bite.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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