NHL insiders debate the biggest surprises, reason for the Jets’ success, best moments of the season
With 20 days of the 2024-25 NHL season in the books, there has been no shortages of twists and turns.
Mark Stone leading the league in scoring? Cale Makar (and other defensemen) on pace for over 100 points? The Winnipeg Jets off to a perfect start through eight games?
To help digest it all, we’ve gathered a panel of NHL analysts to answer a four-pack of burning questions.
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In which of your preseason predictions are you least confident now?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Picking Charlie McAvoy to win the Norris Trophy. The largest obstacle he faces at the moment is the one he has faced the last few years: Can he score enough points? Entering Monday, McAvoy has three points through nine games. It’s a drastic comparison to other defensemen such as Cale Makar (16 points), Alex Pietrangelo (11) along with Rasmus Andersson and Neal Pionk (both have 10).
McAvoy has the all-around ability to play in every situation. But any defenseman that’s looking to present a strong case to win the Norris must have the points.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: While it doesn’t appear as horribly misguided as it did over a week ago, when they were, ahem, 0-5, my prediction that the Nashville Predators would finish top of the Central Division isn’t exactly sparkling. The Jets are soaring, the Dallas Stars are dominating, the Minnesota Wild are (somewhat quietly) stringing together a bunch of wins, and the Colorado Avalanche are clearly shaking off their wobbly start.
I still believe Nashville has too strong a collection of talent to miss out on the playoffs altogether, but the strength of competition in that division is already casting a rather dark cloud on my bold prophecy.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Before the season started I thought Connor McDavid would go Super Saiyan and collect all the hardware again, but then Kaiju Cale Makar showed up early in the season and rampaged his way to the top of the scoring tables, putting him squarely in the mix for scoring titles. I still think McDavid can end up leading in points and goals at the end of the season, but I’m less confident at the moment than I was before the season started (but really, all it will take is one solid stretch to course correct).
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: I put a lot of weight behind the Edmonton Oilers this season, and my confidence in that prediction ebbs and flows like the team itself. It felt like there would be more momentum from that push to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last season, and yet Edmonton has looked more disjointed than anything.
Being a .500 team a few weeks into the campaign doesn’t mean the Oilers are bad by any means, and they can certainly climb their way back to being a powerhouse in the Pacific or even make my Cup Final prediction look good, but I’m not as bullish on Edmonton now as I was in September.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: I was convinced that the Utah Hockey Club would make the playoffs in the Western Conference. I needed to find someone who made the cut last season that would not return to the postseason to make room for the newbies. The Winnipeg Jets were a 110-point team under Rick Bowness last season. I didn’t see a repeat performance there, and was left somewhat unimpressed with the defense corps sandwiched between the forwards and Connor Hellebuyck.
Well, it turns out the Jets are still quite good under Scott Arniel, last season’s associate coach who replaced Bowness, as were are on pace for [checks standings] 164 points through eight games — an offensive machine built on the foundation of the league’s best goaltender. Meanwhile, Utah started strong before tumbling back to .500, and injuries to defensemen Sean Durzi and John Marino might invalidate that prediction, too.
There were 28 players currently on pace to hit or eclipse 100 points this season as of Monday. How many will actually reach that mark?
Clark: Let’s go with 15. The most challenging part is figuring out the “unknowns” at the top of the leaderboard.
Can Mark Stone, who has not played in more than 70 games since the 2018-19 season, stay healthy? Could Jared McCann, whose current career best is 70 points, hit the century mark for a Seattle Kraken team that entered Monday 19th in shooting percentage, and 21st in goals per game? How will it work for defensemen such as Andersson and Pionk? Andersson scored 88 points over the last two seasons, while Pionk scored 98 points over the last three.
Matiash: I’ll offer up a dozen. Nine skaters eclipsed the mark last season, with a couple more — Kirill Kaprizov would have in a full season — were left banging on the door. A few who are on pace right now — Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Strome come to mind — don’t boast the career resumes to convince me they’ll find themselves flirting with that magical plateau by season’s end, although I’d be more than happy for either to show me up on that point. Injuries and games lost will also serve as an unfortunate factor for many.
Öcal: All 28. Give us a historic season. OK, in all seriousness we had nine last season, so let’s say we at least break double digits this season. And give us a couple surprise 100-point seasons. Mark Stone leads the league, with 18 points through 10 games. He’s never had more than 64 points in a season, and that was in 2014-2015 with the Senators. I say he gets to 100.
Shilton: I’ll say 10. The best part of this early season is that defenses are still settling in and that gives scorers a chance to shine while taking advantage. Sustaining that sort of production for all but the elite few is usually not happening. Now, I would love to be wrong on that and see 15 or 16 guys over 100 points by April. History tells us that we’re not likely to be rewarded with such an outburst.
Wyshynski: I’ll take the under of all unders and say nine players, same as last season. Slumps happen. Injuries happen. The current offensive pace for this season — 3.23 goals per team per game through 138 games — would be the highest since the 1993-94 season. While I’d happily be wrong about fading the offensive fireworks this season, I expect the end results are more in line with 2023-24.
What has been the Jets’ secret sauce to starting the season 8-0-0?
Clark: There’s no one player who’s at the controls; it’s a collective effort. The Jets are getting the contributions from top-six forwards such as Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele that are expected. They’re also seeing growth from a healthy Cole Perfetti, who has been at the vanguard for a few seasons. The third line of Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry and Nino Niederreiter have been a consistent problem all over the ice. Pionk has provided the Jets with another defenseman beyond Josh Morrissey who can provide contributions.
But what might be arguably the most important aspect of all? It’s the fact that we’re just now mentioning Connor Hellebuyck, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. That’s how strong they’ve been, and shows how well Scott Arniel and his staff have prepared to start the season.
Matiash: Balanced scoring, staunch defensive play, Vezina-caliber goaltending, ridiculous production with the extra skater, effective penalty killing, and disciplined conduct — the Jets are one of the least penalized clubs in the league — makes for a nearly flawless recipe. If there’s an obvious weakness on this team right now, I can’t spot it.
Öcal: How about that Lowry-Appleton -Niederreiter third line? It’s been the identity line so far for the Jets. All three are either hovering around a point-per-game pace through eight games … as the third line! Jets head coach Scott Arniel told reporters that this group consists of “straight-line players” who “push the puck forward in their straight line, they get after it. They score a lot of goals in that blue paint area.” A new contender for best line in hockey? They have outscored opponents 6-0 at 5-on-5 so far.
Shilton: It’s how balanced the Jets are that’s made them special. Through eight games they’ve got four players with 10 points, and consistent contributors on each line. Winnipeg is no one-man show relying on star power (although they’ve got it) or elite goaltending (which they have in Connor Hellebuyck) to win the day. When a team establishes that depth of attack out of the gate, it sets the tone not only for your own club but how the rest of the league views your team, too.
The Jets have swagger, and you can tell it comes from knowing they’re not just a good team, but a deep one as well.
Wyshynski: How about some love for Scott Arniel? The NHL is full of head coaches that needed to faceplant in their first gig before finding success the second time around. Arniel had a 45-60-18 record in parts of two seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets from 2010-12. After that, he worked under Alain Vigneault in New York, Peter Laviolette in Washington and then under Rick Bowness as an associate coach with the Jets.
His early dedication to diving into Winnipeg’s analytics as a way to figure out what went wrong against the Avalanche last postseason has led to improved understanding of the roster and communication within the team. Give credit where it’s due: None of us had Scott Arniel as a Jack Adams favorite before the season, but here we are.
What has been your favorite moment of the season so far?
Clark: The Chill Cam in Utah, when the in-arena cameras go to fans and they start chugging beer. During the Utah Hockey Club’s first game, there was someone who could not finish their beer and the crowd booed them worse than the visiting Chicago Blackhawks. Seeing how Utah would embrace this particular part of hockey culture was a major question given that the state’s approach to alcohol led to it being nicknamed “The Zion Curtain” for years.
The new Chill Cam made one fan admit he’d never seen anything like that in his lifetime at any sporting event in Utah, which made him an even bigger UHC fan.
Matiash: I can’t call it a favorite moment because of the devastating events that brought about the action, but John Tortorella inviting Guy Gaudreau to help out at Philadelphia Flyers practice stands out as memorably meaningful. To offer such a personal overture to a man overcome with severe grief and overwhelming loss, someone Tortorella had never met, speaks to the coach’s deep sense of empathy and the close knit strength of the hockey community altogether.
Öcal: The classy way the entire league handled tributes to Johnny Gaudreau. But the one that hit me the hardest was at the start of the Columbus Blue Jackets‘ home opener, when the puck was dropped then slowly passed to an empty left wing, where Johnny Hockey would have lined up, and left there for 13 seconds. Players let the clock tick away out of respect, followed by a standing ovation. A truly special moment to remember a truly special person.
1:10
Blue Jackets open game without left winger to honor Johnny Gaudreau
The Blue Jackets honor Johnny Gaudreau by starting their game against the Panthers with no left winger and letting 13 seconds run off the clock.
Shilton: I thought the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin milestone game against the Buffalo Sabres was pretty cool. It’s rare in the modern NHL that we see teammates together long enough to where they’re hitting those sorts of numbers together. For Malkin to get his 500th goal — with a Crosby assist, after Malkin assisted on Crosby’s 500th two years and — and for Crosby to have his 1,600th point the same night was a unique feat to witness.
Pittsburgh Penguins fans haven’t had much to be excited about the last couple years, but you’ve got to appreciate how that duo continues to produce at a high level so late into their already illustrious careers.
Wyshynski: Steven Stamkos‘s return to Tampa. As Lightning coach Jon Cooper said, “Breakups are hard. It’s the soap opera of sports.” This breakup was no exception. It was surreal to see a franchise that basically walked away from its captain and greatest offensive player embrace his return with an emotional video tribute and scoreboards flashing “Forever 91.”
It was memorable to hear Lightning fans go from booing two Nashville goals to cheering Stamkos’ name for having assisted on them. It was delicious to see Jake Guentzel, Stamkos’s replacement on Tampa Bay’s top line, tally two assists of his own, including on Nick Paul‘s game-winner. Did that emotional night help Stamkos turn the page? “I dunno. We’ll see. I’ll let you know if that day comes, but I don’t think you completely turn the page,” he said.
In the new 12-team College Football Playoff format, there is an added emphasis on conference championships. The four highest-ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye and a fifth conference champion is guaranteed a spot in the field. Those champions will be determined by conference title games held Dec. 6-7.
But in a college football landscape that has mostly done away with divisions and with some conferences expanding to as many as 18 teams, it can be difficult to figure out who is in line to reach those conference title games.
We’re here to help out. Below are the list of tiebreakers for each league to help determine conference championship game participants.
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Win percentage against common opponents
3. Win percentage against common opponents from top-to-bottom of the conference standings (breaking ties among tied teams)
4. Combined win percentage of conference opponents
5. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (from SportSource Analytics)
6. Draw administered by the ACC commissioner
Three-plus team tie: In case of a tie for both conference championship spots, once the tiebreaker identifies one championship game representative, it will start over with the remaining tied teams.
1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams (if all tied teams are common opponents)
2. If all tied teams are not common opponents, if any tied team defeated each of the other tied teams
2a. If all tied teams are not common opponents, and no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, that team is eliminated
3. Win percentage against common opponents
4. Win percentage against common opponents from top-to-bottom of the conference standings
5. Combined win percentage of conference opponents
6. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (from SportSource Analytics)
7. Draw administered by the ACC commissioner
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Win percentage against common conference opponents
3. Win percentage against the next-highest common opponent in the conference standings; in case of tied teams in standings, use each team’s win percentage against all of those teams
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (strength of conference schedule)
5. Total wins over the 12-game season (only one win against teams from FCS or lower division will be counted)
6. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (from SportSource Analytics)
7. Coin toss
Three-plus team tie: In case of a tie for both conference championship spots, once the tiebreaker identifies one championship game representative, it will start over with the remaining tied teams. When reduced to two tied teams, the two-team tiebreakers will be used.
1. Combined head-to-head among tied teams (if all tied teams are common opponents)
1a. If all tied teams are not common opponents, if any tied team defeated each of the other tied teams
1b. If all tied teams are not common opponents, and no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, that team is eliminated
2. Win percentage against all common opponents
3. Record against next-highest common opponent in conference standings; in case of tied teams in standings, use each team’s win percentage against all of those teams
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (strength of conference schedule)
5. Total wins over the 12-game season (only one win against teams from FCS or lower division will be counted)
6. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (from SportSource Analytics)
7. Coin toss
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Win percentage against common conference opponents
3. Win percentage against common opponents from top-to-bottom of the conference standings (breaking ties among tied teams)
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
5. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (from SportSource Analytics)
6. Draw administered by the Big Ten commissioner
Three-plus team tie: In case of a tie for both conference championship spots, once the tiebreaker identifies one championship game representative, it will start over with the remaining tied teams. When reduced to two tied teams, the two-team tiebreakers will be used.
1. Combined head-to-head among tied teams
1a. If all tied teams are not common opponents, if any tied team defeated each of the other tied teams
2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents
3. Win percentage against common opponents from top-to-bottom of the conference standings (breaking ties among tied teams)
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
5. Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric (from SportSource Analytics)
6. Draw administered by the Big Ten commissioner
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Win percentage against common conference opponents
3. Win percentage against common opponents from top-to-bottom of the conference standings (breaking ties among tied teams: if a two-team tiebreaker will not break a tie, combined records against tied common opponents will be used)
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
5. Higher relative total scoring margin against all conference opponents (from SportSource Analytics)
6. Random draw
Three-plus team tie: In case of a tie for both conference championship spots, once the tiebreaker identifies one championship game representative, it will start over with the remaining tied teams.
1. Combined head-to-head among tied teams (if all tied teams are common opponents)
1a. If all tied teams are not common opponents, if any tied team defeated each of the other tied teams
1b. If all tied teams are not common opponents, and no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, that team is eliminated
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Win percentage against common opponents from top-to-bottom of the conference standings (breaking ties among tied teams; if a two-team tiebreaker will not break a tie, combined records against tied common opponents will be used)
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
5. Higher relative total scoring margin against all conference opponents (from SportSource Analytics)
6. Random draw
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. If one team is ranked in the latest CFP rankings (and didn’t lose in the final weekend of the regular season)
2a. If one team is ranked in the latest CFP rankings and lost in the final weekend of the regular season, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
2b. If both teams are ranked, the higher-ranked team that didn’t lose in the final weekend of the regular season (if both lose, a composite average of metrics)
2c. If neither team is ranked in the latest CFP rankings, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
3. Win percentage against common conference opponents
4. Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) excluding exempt games
5. Coin toss
Three-plus team tie: In case of a tie for both conference championship spots, once the tiebreaker identifies one championship game representative, it will start over with the remaining tied teams.
1. Combined head-to-head (if all teams played each other)
1a. If one tied team defeated all other tied teams
2. If the highest-ranked team in the latest CFP rankings that didn’t lose in the final weekend of the regular season
2a. If the highest-ranked team loses in final weekend of regular season, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
2b. If multiple ranked teams in the CFP rankings, the highest ranked team(s) that wins in the final weekend of the regular season
2c. If all ranked teams lose on the final weekend, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
2d. If no teams are ranked in the final CFP rankings, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
3. Win percentage against common conference opponents
4. Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) excluding exempt games
5. Coin toss
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie and three-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Highest CFP rankings going into the final weekend (if team wins in the final weekend)
3. Highest average ranking of four computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI Rankings)
4. Highest average ranking of two computer rankings (SportSource, KPI Rankings)
5. Highest most recently published multiyear football Academic Progress Rate (if same, most recent year)
6. Draw administered by commissioner’s designee
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Win percentage against common opponents
3. Win percentage against common opponents based on MAC finish (breaking ties) from top-to-bottom of conference
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
5. Higher ranking by Team Rating Score metric (SportSource Analytics)
6. Draw administered by MAC commissioner
Three-team tie:
1. Combined head-to-head (if all teams played each other)
2. If one tied team defeated all other tied teams
3. Win percentage against all common opponents
4. Win percentage against all common opponents based on finish (with ties broken)
5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
6. Higher ranking by Team Rating Score metric (SportSource Analytics)
7. Draw administered by MAC commissioner
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie:
1. Head-to-head
2. Highest CFP ranking (if team wins in the final weekend)
2a. If only or both CFP ranked teams loses in the final weekend (or if there is no ranked teams), an average of metrics will be used
3. Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference)
4. Record against the next-highest team in the conference standings (tied teams will be lumped together if tied teams played all those teams)
5. Win percentage against common conference opponents
6. Coin toss conducted virtually by the commissioner
Three-plus team tie:
1. Combined head-to-head (if all teams played each other)
2. If one tied team defeated all other tied teams
3. Highest CFP ranking among teams to win in the final weekend
4. Average of selected metrics (if ranked team loses or if no teams ranked)
5. Overall win percentage against all opponents (conference and nonconference); maximum one win against FCS or lower-division team
6. Record against the next-highest team in the conference standings (tied teams will be lumped together if tied teams played all those teams)
7. Win percentage against common conference opponents
8. Drawing conducted virtually by the commissioner
Conference’s tiebreaker policy
Two-team tie
1. Head-to-head
2. Overall win percentage
3. Win percentage against the next-highest team in the division standings (lumping together tied teams)
4. Win percentage against all common nondivisional conference opponents
5. Higher-ranked teams in the CFP rankings (if it wins in the final regular season week); if the highest-ranked team loses, an average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, Colley and Wolfe)
6. If no team is ranked in the CFP rankings, an average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, Colley and Wolfe)
7. Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) against FBS teams
8. Coin toss
Three-plus team tie: (Teams will not revert to two-team tiebreaker once three-plus team tiebreaker is trimmed to two.)
1. Combined head-to-head
2. Divisional win percentage
3. Win percentage against the next-highest team in the division standings (lumping together tied teams)
4. Highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings (if they win in the final weekend of regular season); if that team loses, an average of selected computer rankings
5. If no team is ranked in the CFP rankings, an average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, Colley and Wolfe)
6. Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) against FBS teams
7. Draw lots (conducted by commissioner)
Check out the ESPN college football hub page for the latest news, analysis, schedules, rankings and more.
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
SAN ANTONIO — Juan Soto will take his time surveying the free agent market before signing with a team, according to his agent Scott Boras.
Speaking at the general manager’s meetings Wednesday, Boras indicated that Soto desires a “thorough” vetting before making a decision.
“Due to the volume of interest and Juan’s desire to hear [from teams], I can’t put a timeframe on it, but it’s going to be a very thorough process for him,” Boras said. “He wants to meet people personally. He wants to talk with them. He wants to hear from them.”
That includes ownership, even for the New York Yankees, for whom he played in 2024 and hit 41 home runs with a league-leading 128 runs scored. Soto helped New York to a World Series appearance, but that doesn’t necessarily give the Yankees a leg up on the competition to sign him.
“He wants ownership that’s going to support that they are going win annually,” Boras said. “Owners want to meet with Juan and sit down and talk with him about what they’re going to provide for their franchise short term and long term.”
Soto’s overall deal is likely to be at least the second largest in MLB history behind Shohei Ohtani‘s 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Boras refused to compare the two players, but stressed Soto’s age (26) as a distinctive factor in teams’ pursuit of his client. Ohtani was 29 when he hit free agency.
“I don’t think Ohtani has much to do with Juan Soto at all,” Boras said. “It’s not something we discuss or consider. … He’s in an age category that separates him.”
Both New York teams have spoken to Boras already, though there are a handful of other big-market franchises that could be in play for his services, including the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.
Boras was asked how the competitive balance tax on payrolls could impact Soto’s free agency.
“I don’t think tax considerations are the focal point when you’re talking about a business opportunity where you can make literally billions of dollars by acquiring somebody like this,” Boras said.
Boras and Soto are only at the beginning stages of what could be a drawn-out process. One thing going for the player, in Boras’ estimation, is that Soto is “pretty well known” considering he has already been on three teams and played in 43 playoff games, including twice in the World Series.
In his agent’s eyes, every winning team should be interested.
“They’re [team executives] called upon to be championship magicians,” Boras said. “Behind every great magician is the magic Juan.”
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
SAN ANTONIO — Free agent pitcher Kyle Hendricks has agreed to a one year, $2.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN.
Hendricks, 34, posted a 5.92 ERA for the Chicago Cubs last season but was better in the second half after a stint in the bullpen. His ERA was 4.41 from mid-July to the end of the regular season. He threw 7⅓ shutout innings in his last start as a Cub in late September after spending the first 11 years of his career with Chicago.
The Angels are hoping Hendricks finds more consistency in 2025, similar to what he displayed at times late in 2024. They also have a young pitching staff that needs mentoring. Hendricks can help in that department as well.
Hendricks won the ERA title in 2016, helping the Cubs to a World Series title. He was the last member of that team still playing for the Cubs until he became a free agent after the 2024 season. Overall, he’s 97-81 with a 3.68 ERA.
Hendricks is from the Los Angeles area, having gone to Capistrano Valley High School in Mission Viejo, California. He was originally drafted by the Angels in the 39th round in 2008 before attending Dartmouth. Additionally, his dad worked in the Angels’ ticket office for six years when Hendricks was a teenager.
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