Rachel Reeves to deliver ‘fixing the foundations and change’ budget – but it’ll be a difficult sell

Published

1 year ago

October 30, 2024

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The Labour manifesto never did add up.

On the one hand, Keir Starmer vowed there would be “no return to austerity” under his government, while also insisting he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond an £8bn raid on private equity, oil and gas companies, private school fees and non-doms to pay for more teachers and NHS appointments.

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In reality, whoever won the election faced tens of billions of pounds in tough choices over tax and spending. But instead of levelling with us, the two main parties embarked in a “conspiracy of silence” in order to win votes.

Today, the truth will out, in a budget which will define Sir Keir Starmer’s first term in a way his manifesto did not.

There will be huge tax rises and there will be changes in the fiscal rules to allow the chancellor to borrow more to invest in Britain’s crumbling infrastructure.

And we will finally find out which “working people” are the ones Sir Keir Starmer wants to protect as small and big businesses, property owners, shareholders – and perhaps “Middle England” too – braces itself for tax rises, and the government braces itself for the fall-out.

The prime minister set the hare running on who’s in the firing line for tax rises last week at the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Samoa when he told me “working people” were those who “go out and earn their living, usually paid in a sort of monthly cheque” but they did not have the ability to “write a cheque to get out of difficulties”.

He told me explicitly that “working people” who also owned assets, such as property or shares, did not fit his definition.

So business owners, property owners and Middle England do have some cause for alarm.

The pledge to “not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT” has been tweaked in recent weeks to a promise to “protect the payslips of working people”.

Employers are expecting an increase in national insurance contributions they must pay on wages – many will argue this is a flagrant breach of a manifesto pledge.

In another blow to employers, but a win for those struggling on low wages, Labour have also announced a 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage for over three million workers next year, amounting to a pay boost worth £1,400-a-year for an eligible full-time worker.

Is this the moment the manifesto is revealed as a sham? Labour insiders insist not and point, again, to the “£22bn black hole” in the current financial year they discovered when their took office – and which ratchets up to a £40bn gap in the public finances over the course of the parliament – that they now have to plug.

Politically, they hope to blame the big tax rises and borrowing on the economic inheritance left to them by the Tories and buy some space with voters.

As one senior government figure put it to me: “The scale of the economic inheritance is bigger than thought and it has blown a political and economic hole in our first few months.”

This will be a message Rachel Reeves will want to land at the despatch box on Wednesday.

But a public disillusioned with politicians might not see it like that as they watch a Labour chancellor, flanked by a prime minister who promised the opposite in the election, embark on a massive round of tax rises that but months ago they were told were not coming down the tracks.

Insiders acknowledge this is going to be a tax and spend budget that goes far beyond what we were told to expect when Labour were asking for votes.

But they hope what they can do with this big moment is to take it beyond the winners and losers and frame this first Labour budget in over 14 years as “forging a new settlement” for the people and the country.

To that end, this will be the “fixing the foundations and change” budget: “This is a new economic settlement from a government willing to investment and, in particular, borrow to invest, and that is a change and it will show a path towards long term growth.”

Ed Conway analysis:
Could budget’s ‘jiggery-pokery’ scare investors?

Because, as we drill into who is a working person, and who is going to be hit with tax raises in this budget, there will also be a big story about billions of investment in our country’s energy and transport infrastructure, into housing and hospitals and schools.

“If we get it right, on the evening of the budget, we want to be able to show that we protected your pay slip, are fixing the NHS and investing to rebuild Britain,” one senior figure explains. “What’s the alternative? Choice is going to feature very heavily in the chancellor’s speech. We have made our choices and we are asking business and the wealthiest to pay a bit more to grow our economy and protecting working people.”

And this new settlement, when it lands, will be massive. Rachel Reeves intends to change her borrowing rules to allow up to £53bn more in borrowing to be spent on public services and infrastructure.

Trailing the decision at the International Monetary Fund summit in Washington last week, the chancellor said she was making the change in order to take opportunities for the economy “in industries from life sciences to carbon capture, storage and clean energy to AI and technology”, as well as using borrowing to “repair our crumbling schools and hospitals”.

The danger for the chancellor is that what actually comes out the other side is anger over tax rises not flagged in the manifesto, or accusations that the government is being Janus-faced if it claims it’s protecting working people should it also, as speculated, extend the freeze on income tax thresholds beyond the 2028 deadline set by the last government, which would drag millions of workers into higher tax bands (and raise as much as £7bn a year for the government).

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How might the middle classes and wealthier voters respond to their incomes being squeezed? And how might businesses respond to being asked to pay billions more in taxes from a government that has been banging on about being pro-business for months?

It is going to be a difficult sell, no doubt. But this government is calculating that short-term pain now will translate into gains in the medium to long term if Reeves can pull it off and kick-start economic growth.

The hope is that come the next Labour manifesto, the pledges on the NHS, economy, better housing and jobs have been met and the public can forgive the tax rises foisted on them to get there.

Starmer talked endlessly about it being a change election and it will be this budget, not his manifesto, that proves the point.

UK

Robert Best death: Women in court after man’s body found in Inverclyde field

Published

5 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Robert Best death: Women in court after man's body found in Inverclyde field

Two women have appeared in court charged with attempting to defeat the ends of justice after a man was found dead in a field in Inverclyde.

The body of Robert Best, 50, was discovered near High Mathernock Farm, Kilmacolm, on the morning of 11 November.

He had been reported missing from Greenock the same day.

Dorothy Shields, 64, and Nicola Brisland, also known as Nicola Campbell, 41, were arrested and charged in connection with Mr Best’s death.

The pair appeared before Greenock Sheriff Court on Wednesday, where they made no plea to the charge of attempting to defeat the ends of justice.

The suspects, both of Port Glasgow, were granted bail ahead of their next court appearance, which is yet to be confirmed.

Andrew Brodie, 51, and Stephen Shields, 44, have already appeared in court in connection with the case.

The pair have each been charged with murder and attempting to defeat the ends of justice.

The suspects, both of Greenock, made no plea to the two separate charges last week and were remanded in custody ahead of their next court appearance.

A 45-year-old man previously arrested in connection with assault and a 41-year-old man arrested at the same time as the two women have both been released pending further enquiries.

Police Scotland previously said officers investigating Mr Best’s death were carrying out enquiries into a report of a disturbance in Lansbury Street, Greenock, which took place between 11pm on 10 November and 3am on 11 November.

A force spokesperson said: “Enquiries are ongoing.”

UK

Illegal mountain of waste next to river ‘utterly appalling’, says PM

Published

5 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Illegal mountain of waste next to river 'utterly appalling', says PM

Sir Keir Starmer has called the pile of fly-tipped illegal waste next to a river in Oxfordshire “utterly appalling” and said “all available powers” will be used to make those responsible cover the cost of the clean-up.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the pile of rubbish in a field beside the River Cherwell in Kidlington is now 150m long and up to 12m high, adding that water is “now lapping against the waste and carrying it into the river”.

Speaking at PMQs, Sir Ed said it is just one of many sites where organised criminal gangs are “illegally dumping their waste onto our countryside and getting away with it”.

“This is a shocking environmental emergency. So will he instruct the Environment Agency to clean it up now?” Sir Ed added.

Sir Keir responded in the House of Commons on Wednesday, calling the scenes “utterly appalling”.

The prime minister said: “A criminal investigation, as he knows, is under way. Specialist officers are tracking down those responsible.

“The Environmental Agency, in answer to this question, will use all available powers to make sure that the perpetrators cover the cost of the clean-up, which must now follow.”

Sir Keir added: “We have boosted the Environment Agency’s budget for tackling waste crime by 50%, giving councils new powers to seize and crush fly-tippers, vehicles and lawbreakers can now face up to five years in jail.”

Earlier this week, Calum Miller, Liberal Democrat MP for Bicester and Woodstock, said recent heavy rainfall brought by Storm Claudia at the weekend had made the situation more urgent, and meant the rubbish was slowly floating towards the river, which eventually flows through Oxford and feeds the Thames.

Mr Miller also told Sky News on Sunday it was the first time he had seen anything on this scale, questioning whether the Environmental Agency had the resources to deal with it.

The cost of removing the waste is estimated to be more than the entire annual budget of the local council, which is about £25m.

With the site on a floodplain, Mr Miller listed what he saw as the three major environmental risks – waste being washed into the waterways, rain seeping through the waste and carrying toxins into the water and the danger of decomposing chemicals presenting a fire risk.

The site is adjacent to the A34, a busy road running through cities including Oxford and Birmingham.

He said the police had used a helicopter with a heat-seeking camera, and could see that some of the waste was beginning to decompose.

Mr Miller said he believed the Environment Agency was first made aware of the issue back in July.

He said he believed it was the work of “organised criminal gangs” and raised a “bigger systemic problem around the country”, with “dumps are cropping up in more and more places”.

He added: “My concern is the Environmental Agency lacks the resources to deal with criminal activity on this scale. I’m calling on the government to take action and ensure those who are dealing with such incidents have the powers they need to tackle it at source.”

Anna Burns, the Environment Agency’s director for the Thames area, said on Wednesday: “Most of the tipping happened before we were aware of it. As soon as we were aware, we acted quickly and decisively.”

Ms Burns said: “We are pursuing this as a criminal investigation and currently following a number of leads, and we are laser focused on pursing that investigation.

“And we are working with partners to understand the risks associated with the site.”

She said the agency will pursue the perpetrators to make them pay for the “blight on the landscape” they had caused.

UK

Oasis fan fell to his death at Wembley in ‘tragic accident’, coroner’s court hears

Published

7 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Oasis fan fell to his death at Wembley in 'tragic accident', coroner's court hears

An Oasis fan who fell to his death at Wembley Stadium was the victim of a “tragic accident”, a pre-inquest review has heard.

Bournemouth man Lee Claydon, 45, died following the incident at the London venue on 2 August.

Detective Sergeant James Raffin, from the Met Police, said there were “no concerns” from Mr Claydon’s toxicology report.

He also said that while Mr Claydon had drunk alcohol, this was “expected” and “normal for any of the people attending” the Oasis gig.

The force had also ruled out the possibility of suicide, he said.

He told Barnet Coroner’s Court the police had now completed their investigation into his death

He said: “From a police point of view, this is no longer a criminal prosecution.

“We do not suspect any third party involvement.

“This, from everything we have seen, was a tragic accident.

“From a police point of view, I would say our investigation is complete.”

DS Raffin said he was aware the family had concerns over the “circumstances on the night”, and said he would pass these on to officials at Brent Council.

The deceased’s father, Clive Claydon, 75, previously raised questions about barriers at the venue.

“It must have been horrific,” he said in August.

“All I know is there was beer everywhere, it’s slippery, he slipped apparently, we do not know the rest of it, there’s questions about the barriers.”

Brent Council will now review the police report.

Mr Claydon, a landscape gardener, fell during a gig that formed part of Oasis’ sell-out Live ’25 reunion tour – their first since splitting in 2009.

The inquest opening, which took place in September, heard that the father-of-three was taken to a medical centre in Wembley after the fall, where he was pronounced dead at 10.38pm.

A post-mortem examination on 6 August gave his preliminary medical cause of death as “multiple bodily injuries”.

Senior Coroner Andrew Walker told the review hearing the full inquest will take place on 26 February next year.

He said: “It looks like we are going to be in a position next February to have reports from the London Borough of Brent over the circumstances and also we will have by then the police investigation report.”

Oasis previously said in a statement: “We are shocked and saddened to hear of the tragic death of a fan at the show.

“Oasis would like to extend our sincere condolences to the family and friends of the person involved.”

In a statement at the time of the fall, a Wembley spokesperson said: “The stadium operates to a very high health and safety standard, fully meeting legal requirements for the safety of spectators and staff, and is certified to and compliant with the ISO 45001 standard.

“We work very closely and collaboratively with all relevant event delivery stakeholders – including event owners, local authorities, the Sports Grounds Safety Authority and the police – to deliver events to high standards of safety, security and service for everyone attending or working in the venue.”