Japan’s largest automaker is struggling as low-priced Chinese EV makers, like BYD, continue gaining an edge. Toyota’s global output fell for the first time in four years in the first half of 2024. Is the company’s slow shift to EVs to blame?
Toyota’s global output drops amid slow EV shift
It’s no secret by now that Toyota is one of the biggest laggards in the industry’s transition to all-electric vehicles.
The company built 4.71 million vehicles in the first half of fiscal 2024, down 7% from the record 5.06 million built last year. This is also the first time in four years that Toyota’s global production has slipped.
After halting production of the popular Yariss Cross and Corolla Fielder due to improper vehicle certifications in Japan, Toyota’s domestic output slipped 9.4% in the first half of the year.
Toyota said a recall on the Prius hybrid also led to lower production. Overseas, Toyota’s production slipped nearly 6% to 3.17 million units. In North America, volume was down by 1.7%, while in Europe, volume was up by 3.2%.
2024 Toyota bZ4X (Source: Toyota)
Toyota was hit especially hard in China, with output crashing 17%. Like many legacy automakers, Toyota is struggling to keep pace with Chinese EV leaders like BYD with extremely low-priced models.
BYD’s cheapest EV, the Seagull, starts at under $10,000 (69,800 yuan) and continues to sit atop the sales charts.
BYD Dolphin (left) and Atto 3 (right) at the 2024 Tokyo Spring Festival (Source BYD Japan)
Between April and September 2024, Toyota’s global sales fell 2.8% to 5 million units. This was the first decline in two years, with domestic (-9.3%) and overseas (-1.6%) falling.
Although EV sales rose 32.5% to 78,178 units, Toyota cut production plans for all-electric vehicles by 30% by 2026.
Toyota EV battery roadmap (Source: Toyota)
Toyota now expects to build around 1 million EVs by 2026, down from its previous 1.5 million target.
Electrek’s Take
As one of the slowest automakers to transition to all-electric vehicles, Toyota is feeling the pressure. And it’s not only in China.
Chinese EV makers, like BYD, are quickly expanding overseas as the domestic market is becoming saturated with low-priced competitors.
BYD launched its third EV in Japan this summer, the Seal, which is often compared to Tesla’s Model 3. The Seal joins the Dolphin and Atto 3, two of BYD’s top-selling EVs. Starting at around $24,500 (¥3.63 million), the Dolphin EV is a direct threat to the Toyota Prius and Nissan LEAF.
Earlier this month, The Central Japan Economic and Trade Bureau held a seminar (via Nikkei) to explore trends in the EV industry.
The event showcased around 90,000 parts from 16 foreign automakers, and around 70 auto parts companies were in attendance.
BYD’s Atto 3 electric SUV, which starts at under $20,000 (140,000 yuan) in China, stole the show. One guest asked, “How can it be produced at such a low cost?”
With Toyota promising its next-gen batteries will enable more efficient, lower-priced EVs, will it be too little too late? The company says its “Popularisation” LFP batteries, due out by 2027, will provide over 373 miles (600 km) WLTP driving range.
According to data from CnEVPost, BYD accounted for nearly a third of the LFP batteries installed in China in September. In China, LFP batteries account for almost 75% of the market.
Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran.
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The CEOs of two major energy companies are monitoring the developments between Iran and Israel — but they aren’t about to make firm predictions on oil prices.
Both countries traded strikes over the weekend, after Israel targeted nuclear and military facilities in Iran on Friday, killing some of its top nuclear scientists and military commanders.
Speaking at the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, Lorenzo Simonelli, president and CEO of energy technology company Baker Hughes, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that “my experience has been, never try and predict what the price of oil is going to be, because there’s one sure thing: You’re going to be wrong.”
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Simonelli said the last 96 hours “have been very fluid,” and expressed hope that there would be a de-escalation in tensions in the region.
“As we go forward, we’ll obviously monitor the situation like everybody else is. It is moving very quickly, and we’re going to anticipate the aspect of what’s next,” he added, saying that the company will take a wait-and-see approach for its projects.
At the same conference, Meg O’Neill, CEO of Australian oil and gas giant Woodside Energy, likewise told CNBC that the company is monitoring the impact of the conflict on markets around the world.
She highlighted that forward prices were already experiencing “very significant” effects in light of the events of the past four days.
If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are affected, “that would have even more significant effects on prices, as customers around the world would be scrambling to meet their own energy needs,” she added.
As of Sunday, the Strait remained open, according to an advisory from the Joint Maritime Information Center. It said, “There remains a media narrative on a potential blockade of the [Strait of Hormuz]. JMIC has no confirmed information pointing towards a blockade or closure, but will follow the situation closely.”
Iran was reportedly considering closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks.
O’Neill said that oil and gas prices are closely linked to geopolitics, citing as examples events that date back to World War II and the oil crisis in the 1970s.
Nevertheless, she would not make a firm prediction on the price of oil, saying, “there’s many things we can forecast. The price of oil in five years is not something I would try to put a bet on.”
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The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.
It is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has described it as the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.”
A series of images of landscapes and wildlife from the Brigalow Belt region of Queensland near the town of St. George.
Colin Baker | Moment | Getty Images
Shares of Santos surged as much as 15.23% Monday, after it received a non-binding takeover offer of $18.72 billion by an Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company-led group.
The move marks the biggest intraday jump in the Australian oil and gas producer’s shares since April 2020, LSEG data shows.
Prices of gold, the stalwart shelter in times of crises, rose. Investors flock to the precious metal amid uncertainty because it serves as a stable store of value that is mostly resistant against exogenous shocks, such as inflation or geopolitical conflicts.
And the dollar strengthened, as it is wont to do when the world looks ugly. Recall the dollar smile: The greenback will appreciate when things are really good because investors want in on U.S. risk assets, or when they are really bad because investors want in on the perceived safety of U.S. government bonds.
Stocks, the financial risk asset epitomized, fell across markets globally.
Despite the markets giving multiple indications we are entering a period of ugliness — or, at least, volatility — U.S. stocks still appear resilient, and the surge in oil prices only brings us back to where they were about three months ago as prices have been low since, CNBC’s Michael Santoli wrote.
The markets have, indeed, mostly shrugged off Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, both of which are still brewing. But with the conflict between Israel and Iran still in its early days, it might pay to be extra cautious in the coming weeks.
Safe haven assets in demand Investors piled into safe-haven assets after Israel’s attack on Iran. After weeks of declining, the dollar index, a measurement of the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, rallied 0.3%on Friday and was up 0.1% as of7:30 a.m. Singapore time Monday. Spot gold rose 0.38% and gold futures for August delivery were up 0.41% Monday, adding to Friday’s gains of 1.4% and 1.5% respectively.
Prices of oil jump Oil prices surged as investors feared a disruption to oil supply from Iran, which produced 3.305 million barrels per day in April, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report of May. As of Monday morning Singapore time, U.S. crude oil rose 2.22% to $74.62 a barrel, adding to its 7.26% jump on Friday. The global benchmark Brent climbed 2.22% to $75.88 a barrel, following Friday’s 7.02% surge.
[PRO]U.S. stocks still look resilient Even though stocks fell on the eruption of conflict between Israel and Iran, the market appeared resilient, wrote CNBC’s Michael Santoli. This week, while hostilities between the two Middle East countries will continue weighing on investors’ minds, they should not lose sight of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, which concludes Wednesday.
And finally…
The Boeing 787-9 civil jet airplane of Vietnam Airlines performs its flight display at the 51st Paris International Airshow in Le Bourget near Paris, France. (Photo by: aviation-images.com/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
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