Pound falls sharply and government gilt interest rates up after major budget tax rises
The pound has fallen sharply after the chancellor announced the biggest tax rises in a generation.
Over the last three days, sterling has dropped by 1.2% (in trade weighted terms) – the biggest fall in 18 months.
Between around 1.30pm and 5.30pm today, versus the dollar, it dropped from about 129.9c to the pound to about 128.6c. In the same period, against the euro, it went from 119.3c to the pound to about 118.4c.
In addition, yields for 10-year UK bonds – the cost or interest rate charged for long-term government borrowing – have gone past 4.5% for the first time in a year.
Ed Conway, Sky News’s economics and data editor, said those yields are “pretty much halfway towards the danger zone” – a zone identified by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
However, he said other European bonds had risen, too. “But the UK does seem to be moving faster than most of the others,” he added.
While cautioning that the budget is still very new, Conway said the “upshot” is that Rachel Reeves’s “room for manoeuvre” is already diminishing “because of market moves”.
Markets are reacting in “quite a violent way”, Conway said.
“It’s really unusual to see this after a budget, and that will have a bearing on how much this government will be able to afford in the future,” he added.
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‘Raising taxes was not an easy decision’
A sudden rise in the yields of 10-year UK bonds followed Liz Truss’s disastrous “mini-budget” of September 2022, which led to a surge in the cost of borrowing for ordinary consumers, while the pound slumped to a 37-year low against the dollar.
It is “certainly not like that at the moment”, Conway said.
Nonetheless, market movements will be “enough to really concern people at the Treasury”, he added, “because it suggests that a lot of traders are looking at how much money this government is borrowing, and they’re saying: ‘Hang on, maybe we’re going to charge you more’.”
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The pound has weakened and gilt yields – the cost of borrowing by the UK government – has increased in response to the budget, which saw Rachel Reeves introduce the biggest tax hike in a generation.
While Conway said it does not feel like a “crisis point”, he said the “calculus for this government” may be changing.
Jack Meaning, UK chief economist at Barclays, said market reaction was “materially different” to what happened in 2022.
Bond yields since Ms Reeves’s budget are up by about 0.3%, while in 2022 the rise was about 1.5%, he said.
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The conversation Barclays is having with its customers is also different to that in 2022, Mr Meaning added.
At that time, people were wondering whether a “big crisis point” had been reached.
This time, he said the focus is on comments from the OBR about a potential rise in inflation, and the potential knock-on effect as the Bank of England makes decisions on interest rates in the next few months.
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The prime minister’s official spokesperson refused to talk about bond prices.
“We don’t comment on market movements,” they said.
“The chancellor has been very clear that first and foremost, this budget has been about restoring fiscal stability, and she’s outlined two new robust fiscal rules, which put public finances on a sustainable path.”
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When Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is just one point behind you in the opinion polls, the last thing you want to be reminded about is Brexit.
If you’re Sir Keir Starmer, that is.
No doubt Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, was trying to be friendly. After all, as Sir Keir said, they share a passion for Arsenal Football Club.
But when Mr Tusk declared at their joint news conference in Warsaw that his dream was “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”, Sir Keir visibly cringed.
Was it an ambush? Not quite. But it was certainly awkward for the UK prime minister. He stood stiffly and didn’t respond, not once uttering the word “Brexit”.
Mr Tusk, however, has form for bemoaning Brexit. He was, after all, the president of the European Council when the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016.
He might now be in his second spell as Poland’s PM, but his five years at the EU make him the ultimate Brussels insider, who’s never made any attempt to hide his feelings on Brexit.
Prior to the UK referendum, in September 2015, he said Brexit “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilisation in its entirety”.
His most outspoken attack on the UK’s Eurosceptics came in 2019 when the-then prime minister Theresa May was struggling to get a deal. He spoke of “what the special place in hell looks like for those who promoted Brexit“.
Sir Keir also visited Ukraine on his trip to Eastern Europe. Pic: PA
Standing alongside Sir Keir, he revealed that “for obvious reasons” they discussed co-operation between the UK and the EU. He recalled that his emotional reaction to the referendum in 2016 was “I already miss you”.
He went on: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.
“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”
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A dream? Or a calculated move? As a Brussels insider, was Mr Tusk speaking for the EU as a whole? Was he doing Brussels’ bidding?
He may have returned to lead his homeland, but he remains a key player in Brussels.
On becoming Poland’s PM in 2023, he ended a dispute with Brussels which unlocked billions of frozen EU funds for his country.
He also orchestrated the return of his centre-right ally Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president.
And Poland has just taken over the rotating presidency of the EU, which means Mr Tusk will be hugely influential once again, chairing meetings and setting agendas.
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Poland is back in the European mainstream. It’s where Mr Tusk would like the UK to be as well.
It’s where, privately, Sir Keir would like the UK to be. It’s just that with Reform UK almost neck and neck with Labour in the polls, he daren’t say so.
Poland’s prime minister has said he hopes for the “Breturn” of the UK as a member of the European Union – as he discussed a defence treaty with Sir Keir Starmer.
Donald Tusk, who was hosting the prime minister for discussions on a UK-Polish defence pact in Warsaw, said it was his “dream” that “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”.
Standing alongside Sir Keir at a joint news conference, the Polish premier also said he had discussed greater cooperation between the UK and the EU.
Mr Tusk, who was the president of the European Council during the years that Britain left the EU, said: “For obvious reasons, we also discussed another issue, the cooperation between Great Britain and the European Union.
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“I’m sure you will recall when we learned about the results of the Brexit referendum. I was head of the European Council… at that time. My first emotional reaction was to say: ‘I already miss you.’
“I remember our press briefings as if it was yesterday. I already miss you, that’s what I said.”
He added: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.
“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”
Sir Keir, who held the role of shadow Brexit secretary while Labour was in opposition and backed remain in the 2016 referendum, has repeatedly ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market.
He has, however, said he wants to deepen post-Brexit ties with Brussels
Mr Tusk was speaking after Sir Keir travelled to Poland to discuss a defence pact with the NATO ally – which Mr Tusk said he hoped would be ratified “this year”.
The new treaty is designed to protect Europe from Russian aggression, tackle people-smuggling gangs, and combat misinformation and cyber threats.
Sir Keir was also asked whether the UK’s attendance at a defence summit in Poland earlier this week meant he was in favour of “creating an army” for Europe – to which he replied he was not.
Asked about the E5 defence ministers meeting in Warsaw and whether he supported creating a common European army, Sir Keir said: “The meeting that happened the other day is vitally important. That isn’t about creating armies.
“It’s about how we share our security concerns and build on what we’ve already got.”
Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer visit the Memorial And Museum Auschwitz-Birkenau. Pic: Reuters
As part of the defence pact, a £4bn partnership for new air defence systems in Poland has been agreed. The project will be headquartered in Bristol.
“The UK has secured £8bn of defence deals in Poland over the last three years alone, and we’re going further today, opening a new joint programme office in Bristol to deliver our £4bn partnership, to deliver the next generation of air defence systems to Poland,” he said.
He added: “We share an unbreakable commitment to NATO and an unbreakable commitment to Ukraine.”
During his visit to Poland, Sir Keir also made his first visit to Auschwitz, which he described as “utterly harrowing”.
The prime minister visited the former Nazi concentration camp, where he laid a wreath ahead of the 80th anniversary of its liberation.
After he and his wife Victoria, who is Jewish, visited the site, Sir Keir said: “Nothing could prepare me for the sheer horror of what I have seen in this place. It is utterly harrowing.
“The mounds of hair, the shoes, the suitcases, the names and details, everything that was so meticulously kept, except for human life.”
Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer visit the Memorial And Museum Auschwitz-Birkenau. Pic: Reuters
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His visit to Poland came following a surprise trip to Kyiv on Thursday, where he reiterated his support for Ukraine and suggested that British troops could be deployed to the country as part of peacekeeping efforts.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, Sir Keir said the UK would play its “full part” in any peace negotiations – including by deploying British troops for peacekeeping – though added that he did not want “to get ahead of ourselves”.
During his visit, Sir Keir also met Polish businesses, including the firm InPost which has announced it will invest a further £600m into the UK in the next five years to grow its operations.
It is thought that the overall £1bn investment by the firm, which operates parcel lockers, could support up to 12,000 new jobs.
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