Why flooding in Spain has been so deadly – and why it could happen again
More than 200 people have died in Spain after nearly a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours.
On Friday, there were at least 205 confirmed deaths in Valencia, two in Castilla La Mancha, and one in Andalusia.
Local authorities issued warnings late on Tuesday, but many say this gave them next-to-no time to prepare for the conditions that had killed dozens by Wednesday.
Here we look at what caused the flooding – and why they could happen again.
How quickly did the floods hit?
Heavy rain had already begun in parts of southern Spain on Monday.
In contrast to areas like Malaga, where residents told Sky News it had been “chucking it down for two days”, the rain did not start in the worst-hit region of Valencia until around 7pm on Tuesday.
At 8pm, people in Valencia received smartphone alerts warning them not to leave their homes.
But by then, many were already trapped in dangerous conditions, particularly in the south of the city where a major road had flooded, leaving drivers stuck in their cars.
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By Wednesday morning, more than 50 people had been found dead.
The Chiva area of Valencia had been hit by 491 litres per square metre of rain in eight hours. Only around 65 l/m2 usually falls in the whole of October.
Storms spread west on Wednesday night and into Thursday, bringing deadly conditions to Andalusia and Castilla La Mancha as well.
What caused them?
Heavy rain is not uncommon across eastern Spain at this time of year.
It’s caused by a weather phenomenon called DANA – ‘depresion aislada en niveles altos’ in Spanish – which translates as ‘isolated low-pressure system at high levels’.
DANA occurs when:
1) Cold air from the north moves south;
2) Warm air then blows over the Mediterranean, rising quickly and forming heavy clouds;
3) The low pressure from the north gets blocked by the high pressure above the water, causing it to slow down or stop completely.
A graphic shows how the DANA phenomenon happens
This creates storm-like conditions that cannot move anywhere else – so the rain falls over the same area for a sustained period of time.
What role did climate change play?
General flash floods and those caused by DANA specifically have struck Spain long before humans started warming the climate.
But climate change is making heavy rain worse, and therefore more dangerous.
That’s because hotter air is able to hold more moisture. So when it rains, it unleashes more water.
The current 1.3C increase in global temperatures since pre-industrial times means the air can carry about 9% more moisture.
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What caused the floods in Spain?
And higher sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean are a “key driver” of strong storms, said Dr Marilena Oltmanns, research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.
The world is on track for 3.1C warming by the end of this century, which is expected to make rain heavier still, increasing the chances of flash flooding and giving areas little time to respond.
Imperial College London’s lead for its World Weather Attribution (WWA) group Dr Friederike Otto says there is “no doubt about it”.
“These explosive downpours were intensified by climate change,” she says.
Professor Mark Smith, an expert in water science and health at the University of Leeds, adds that hotter summers also dry out the soil in the ground, which means it absorbs less rain – and more of it flows into rivers and lakes – which flood quicker.
Scale of devastation in Paiporta, Valencia on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
Abandoned and mangled cars in Valencia on Thursday. Pic: AP
Will they keep happening?
A red weather warning is in place for the Huelva area of Andalusia until Friday afternoon.
Beyond the warning period, storms are set to continue across parts of Spain for several days.
In the longer term, Dr Marilena Oltmanns says: “Given the long-term warming trend, both in the sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean region and the global air temperature, we expect the events like the currently observed one in Spain to become more frequent.”
Chiva and the surrounding worst-hit area also suffers from the unfortunate geography of being in a river catchment – where water feeds into the River Turia – and close to the mountains. And is not far from the sea.
That means water has little chance to absorb into the land and so builds up very quickly.
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This makes it all the more imperative that forecasts are accurate, authorities prepare accordingly, and residents respond quickly.
Professor Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, describes people dying in their cars and being swept away in the street as “entirely avoidable”.
“This suggests the system for alerting people to the dangers of floods in Valencia has failed,” she says.
“People need to understand that extreme weather warnings for floods are very different from regular weather reports. We need to consider flood warnings totally differently, more like fire alarms or earthquake sirens, and less like the way we browse daily weather forecasts on our phones or on the TV.”
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Residents: ‘No one came to rescue us’
Gareth Redmond-King, international analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), says Spain’s tragedy should serve as a “wake-up call” to the UK.
“This is not about future events in a far-off place with a dramatically different climate from the UK. Spain is one of our nearest neighbours,” he warns.
The Syrian presidency has announced it’s assembling a special taskforce to try to stop nearly a week of sectarian clashes in the southern Druze city of Sweida.
The presidency called for restraint on all sides and said it is making strenuous efforts to “stop the fighting and curb the violations that threaten the security of the citizens and the safety of society”.
By early Saturday morning, a ceasefire had been confirmed by the US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, who posted on X that Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to a ceasefire supported by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
The post went on to state that this agreement had the support of “Turkey, Jordan and its neighbours” and called upon the Druze, Bedouins, and Sunni factions to put down their arms.
Sky News special correspondent Alex Crawford reports from the road leading to Sweida, the city that has become the epicentre of Syria’s sectarian violence.
For the past 24 hours, we’ve watched as Syria‘s multiple Arab tribes began mobilising in the Sweida province to help defend their Bedouin brethren.
Thousands travelled from multiple different Syrian areas and had reached the edge of Sweida city by Friday nightfall after a day of almost non-stop violent clashes and killings.
“We have come to protect the [Arab] Bedouin women and children who are being terrorised by the Druze,” they told us.
Arab fighters said they had come to protect the Bedouin women and children
Fighters at a petrol station
Every shop and every home in the streets leading up to Sweida city has been burned or ransacked, the contents destroyed or looted.
We saw tribal fighters loading the back of pickup trucks and driving away from the city with vehicles packed with looted goods from Druze homes.
Shops and homes leading up to Sweida city have been burned or ransacked
Several videos posted online showed violence against the Druze, including one where tribal fighters force three men to throw themselves off a high-rise balcony and are seen being shot as they do so.
Doctors at the nearby community hospital in Buser al Harir said there had been a constant stream of casualties being brought in. As we watched, another dead fighter was carried out of an ambulance.
The medics estimated there had been more than 600 dead in their area alone. “The youngest child who was killed was a one-and-a-half-year-old baby,” one doctor told us.
Doctors said there had been a constant stream of casualties due to violence
The violence is the most dangerous outbreak of sectarian clashes since the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime last December – and the most serious challenge for the new leader to navigate.
The newly brokered deal is aimed at ending the sectarian killings and restoring some sort of stability in a country which is emerging from more than a decade of civil war.
Israel and Syria have agreed to a ceasefire, the US ambassador to Turkey has said.
Several hundred people have reportedly been killed this week in the south of Syria in violence involving local fighters, government authorities and Bedouin tribes.
As the violence escalated in the southern province of Sweida, Israel launched airstrikes, including attacks on Wednesday on the defence ministry in Damascus and a target near the presidential palace.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government said it aimed to protect Syrian Druze – part of a small but influential minority that also has followers in Lebanon and Israel.
In a post on X, the US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, said Israel and Syria had agreed to a ceasefire supported by Turkey, Jordan and others.
“We call upon Druze, Bedouins, and Sunnis to put down their weapons and together with other minorities build a new and united Syrian identity,” Mr Barrack said in a post on X.
The Israeli embassy in Washington and Syrian Consulate in Canada did not immediately comment or respond to requests for comment from the Reuters news agency.
The ceasefire announcement came after the US worked to put an end to the conflict, with secretary of state Marco Rubio saying on Wednesday that steps had been agreed to end a “troubling and horrifying situation”.
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Why is Israel bombing Syria?
After Israel warned it would destroy forces attacking Syrian Druze, Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa told the minority group in a televised statement on Thursday that “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party”.
He then claimed Israel has “consistently targeted our stability and created discord among us since the fall of the former regime”.
It comes after the United Nations’ migration agency said earlier on Friday that nearly 80,000 people had been displaced in the region since violence broke out on Sunday.
It also said that essential services, including water and electricity, had collapsed in Sweida, telecommunications systems were widely disrupted, and health facilities in Sweida and Daraa were under severe strain.
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At least three people have been killed after a “horrific incident” at a Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department training facility, officials have said.
A spokesperson for the department said there was an explosion at the Biscailuz Center Academy Training in east LA.
The incident was reported at around 7.30am local time (3.30pm UK time).
Aerial footage from local channel KABC-TV suggests the blast happened in a parking lot filled with sheriff patrol cars and box trucks.
The training centre in east LA. Pic: NBC Los Angeles
Attorney general Pam Bondi wrote on X: “I just spoke to @USAttyEssayli about what appears to be a horrific incident that killed at least three at a law enforcement training facility in Los Angeles.
“Our federal agents are at the scene and we are working to learn more.”
California congressman Jimmy Sanchez said the explosion had “claimed the lives of at least three deputies”.
“My condolences to the families and everyone impacted by this loss,” he said.
Media and law enforcement officials near the explosion site. Pic: AP
The attorney general said in a follow-up post that agents from the FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives are “on the ground to support”.
The mayor of Los Angeles, Karen Bass, said the LAPD bomb squad has also responded to the scene.
“The thoughts of all Angelenos are with all of those impacted by this blast,” she said.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been briefed on the incident, his press office said in a post on X.
“The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services is in contact with the Sheriff’s Department and closely monitoring the situation, and has offered full state assistance,” it added.
The cause of the explosion is being investigated.
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