America does exit polls differently to the UK – here’s how and why

Published

8 months ago

November 2, 2024

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There are two main differences between election coverage in the UK and the United States.

Last July, at 10pm, Sky News’ exit poll graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a massive defeat for the Conservatives.

Confirmation of this forecast was a long time coming since constituency results are only announced by local returning officers once all votes have been counted.

US election latest: Data reveals potentially decisive trends in two swing states

Americans do things differently and for good reason. Polling stations close much earlier in the east than they do in the west. When voting has hours to go in some states, they’ve already started counting elsewhere.

There is a “wait for it” moment when voting closes in west coast states and the broadcasters can reveal the national exit poll headline, but this won’t tell us the winner.

Instead, it will tell us the types of people who have voted for Harris or Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.

So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, here comes the next bit.

Instead of postponing announcements about votes until every last one has been accounted for, each state then begins releasing figures as and when votes are being counted.

And they do so in such a way where we can compare this time with previously. Not for them declarations in sports halls with dodgy microphones but rather running tallies for precincts (think our local council wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).

It’s these data that US broadcasters such as NBC will use to “call” each state’s vote for president. The television networks are big players in the US election drama.

Over 160 million votes will be cast in the election, more than five times the number cast in our general election last July.

And while the outcome of our election was in no doubt once the broadcasters’ exit poll revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that will be far from the case in the battle for the presidency.

As in the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, form the national election pool.

This commissions the consumer research company, Edison Research, to survey voters in over 600 polling places as people exit their polling station.

The survey also includes telephone interviews with people casting a ballot before 5 November. Once completed, the US exit poll will have obtained responses from over 20,000 voters, a similar number that were collected for the general election.

Two surveys of voters, therefore, but now important differences in their purpose become clear.

The UK version is entirely focussed on predicting the distribution of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the winner and its likely House of Commons majority. Over recent elections it has proved pretty good at achieving this task.

By contrast, the US version is much less concerned about predicting the winner (and there are very good reasons for taking this approach) and more interested in the campaign issues that mattered to voters, how they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to make their choices.

The survey identifies key demographic characteristics for each respondent – men or women, age, ethnic heritage, and educational qualifications.

Combined with questions relating to their choice for president this time around, their usual partisan preference, Democrat, Republican or none of the above, the survey data enables a considered and detailed analysis of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.

Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, will use the 2024 exit poll to highlight differences between men and women voters in relation to the abortion issue.

The poll will also show how the economy ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump’s stance on low taxation gained or lost him votes among different social groups. Did Kamala Harris’s association with the Biden administration and the challenges of illegal immigration prove to be a positive or a negative in her bid for the White House?

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All very interesting, but aren’t we all tuning in to see who’s won? While the US exit poll can, in theory, be used for this purpose it is unwise to do so in what is proving to be an extremely close race.

Sky’s tracker of national polls shows the Democrat blue line and the Republican red line moving ever closer together but with Harris currently marginally ahead. But even if she loses the national vote, the polls would still be within the margin of error.

Of course, she could yet win more votes than Trump and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she lost to him in 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it’s where those votes are and the available number of electoral college votes that matters the most.

Trump beat Clinton because his votes were better distributed than hers. History could be repeated.

Releasing precinct-level voting numbers as counting progresses is essential to US election coverage. The national election pool employs over a thousand researchers to collect votes from each of the 50 states.

Additionally, NBC News will augment these figures with more detailed analysis prior to making its call for each state and the electoral college votes for Harris or Trump. The first to reach 270 college votes wins.

Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC’s decision desk.

Although the broadcasters have pooled resources to bring us the exit poll, each will independently analyse the actual voting figures as they become available.

Lapinsky and his team on behalf of NBC will call the state for either Harris or Trump only when they are satisfied that the leading candidate’s vote is sufficiently large that he or she cannot be overtaken.

This a big moment for each broadcaster, especially when the race is likely to be close and where social media may be playing a significant role in stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.

With so much at stake, these decisions will take time and patience.

Our July election was done and dusted in time for the breakfast bulletins. It could be days of counting, recounting and legal appeals before we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

US

Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

Published

7 hours ago

June 16, 2025

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Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

A man has been taken into custody two days after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in Minnesota, law enforcement officials have said.

Authorities had urged the public not to approach Vance Boelter, 57, who they warned could be armed, and who was reportedly posing as a police officer.

A massive manhunt was launched on Saturday after Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at their home in Minneapolis in what Minnesota governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Police said the same gunman that killed the Hortmans had earlier shot and wounded Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, at their home nine miles away.

Boelter was arrested on Sunday evening in a rural area in Sibley County, southwest of Minneapolis.

He faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of attempted second-degree murder in the deaths of the Hortmans and the wounding of Hoffman and his wife.

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

Authorities believe Boelter wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were allegedly found inside the vehicle.

‘We are both incredibly lucky to be alive’

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Yvette Hoffman added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

US

Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who ‘posed as cop’ to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband

Published

10 hours ago

June 16, 2025

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Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who 'posed as cop' to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband

A manhunt is continuing after the gunning down of a Democrat politician and her husband – with police saying they’re acting on the assumption he is still alive and dangerous.

Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at home in a Minneapolis suburb on Saturday in what governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at their home nine miles away, but survived.

A search is under way for Vance Boelter, 57, who authorities believe wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were found inside.

Boelter was last caught on camera wearing a cowboy hat – a similar hat was found near another vehicle belonging to him on Sunday.

Authorities said at their latest news conference they assume he is still alive.

Hundreds of police officers are searching for Boelter, who escaped from the Hortmans’ house on foot after an exchange of gunfire.

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Mr Hoffman’s wife, Yvette, added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

“We believe [Boelter’s] somewhere in the vicinity and that they are going to find him,” Senator Klobuchar told NBC’s Meet the Press.

“Everyone’s on edge here,” she added, “because we know that this man will kill at a second.”

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

Another vehicle belonging to Boelter was searched on Sunday in Minnesota’s Faxon Township. A cowboy hat similar to the one seen in the police appeal was found nearby.

It’s been revealed that the suspect texted friends around 6am on Saturday to say he had “made some choices” and was “going to be gone for a while”.

According to AP, which has seen the messages, he reportedly said: “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way… I’m sorry for all the trouble this has caused.”

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

US

‘It feels like a bad dream’: Minnesota mourns victims of ‘politically motivated assassination’

Published

13 hours ago

June 16, 2025

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'It feels like a bad dream': Minnesota mourns victims of 'politically motivated assassination'

“Holy, holy, holy” they sang at the Church of St Timothy in Blaine, Minnesota.

But the congregation is struggling to comprehend an act of evil – the brutal murder of one of their own.

Melissa Hortman grew up here. The former state speaker and her husband Mark were shot dead in their home on Saturday morning.

Her friend and party colleague, Erin Koegal, was among those attending mass.

“It still feels like a bad dream. I woke up this morning and was like, okay, so that was real,” she said.

“It’s hit me in waves, the grief, and the anger, and the sadness. She was a leader, a true definition of a leader.

“I’ve never known our party without Melissa as the leader and so I can’t, I don’t even know how we’re going to go forward as a caucus without her.”

State senator John Hoffman and his wife Yvette had already been shot and wounded.

Police sent to check on his colleague, Melissa Hortman, didn’t get there in time.

They named the suspect as Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old former Christian missionary.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz called it a “politically motivated murder”.

Friends of Ms Hortman have told Sky News that her two children feared for their mother’s life after reading divisive rhetoric directed at her online.

Matt Norris, another political colleague of Ms Hortman, was also at church, reflecting on the rise of political violence in America.

“We’ve going to have to do some serious introspection as a state, as a country, and figure out how do we get beyond this,” he said.

“How have we been laying the seeds that have led to horrific acts of violence against public servants like this?

“And it’s going to be incumbent upon us as leaders to set a different tone, to set a different direction for our state and our country so that horrific tragedies like this never occur again.”