Connect with us

Published

on

There are two main differences between election coverage in the UK and the United States.

Last July, at 10pm, Sky News’ exit poll graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a massive defeat for the Conservatives.

Confirmation of this forecast was a long time coming since constituency results are only announced by local returning officers once all votes have been counted.

US election latest: Data reveals potentially decisive trends in two swing states

Americans do things differently and for good reason. Polling stations close much earlier in the east than they do in the west. When voting has hours to go in some states, they’ve already started counting elsewhere.

There is a “wait for it” moment when voting closes in west coast states and the broadcasters can reveal the national exit poll headline, but this won’t tell us the winner.

Instead, it will tell us the types of people who have voted for Harris or Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.

So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, here comes the next bit.

Instead of postponing announcements about votes until every last one has been accounted for, each state then begins releasing figures as and when votes are being counted.

And they do so in such a way where we can compare this time with previously. Not for them declarations in sports halls with dodgy microphones but rather running tallies for precincts (think our local council wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).

It’s these data that US broadcasters such as NBC will use to “call” each state’s vote for president. The television networks are big players in the US election drama.

Early voting in Henderson, Nevada, on 19 October. Pic: AP
Image:
Early voting in Henderson, Nevada, on 19 October. Pic: AP

Over 160 million votes will be cast in the election, more than five times the number cast in our general election last July.

And while the outcome of our election was in no doubt once the broadcasters’ exit poll revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that will be far from the case in the battle for the presidency.

As in the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, form the national election pool.

This commissions the consumer research company, Edison Research, to survey voters in over 600 polling places as people exit their polling station.

The survey also includes telephone interviews with people casting a ballot before 5 November. Once completed, the US exit poll will have obtained responses from over 20,000 voters, a similar number that were collected for the general election.

Two surveys of voters, therefore, but now important differences in their purpose become clear.

The UK version is entirely focussed on predicting the distribution of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the winner and its likely House of Commons majority. Over recent elections it has proved pretty good at achieving this task.

An official carries drop boxes to a polling place in Las Vegas on 19 October. Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

A sticker given to an early vote in Nevada. Pic: AP
Image:
US pollsters are more interested in campaign issues that mattered to voters. Pic: AP

By contrast, the US version is much less concerned about predicting the winner (and there are very good reasons for taking this approach) and more interested in the campaign issues that mattered to voters, how they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to make their choices.

The survey identifies key demographic characteristics for each respondent – men or women, age, ethnic heritage, and educational qualifications.

Combined with questions relating to their choice for president this time around, their usual partisan preference, Democrat, Republican or none of the above, the survey data enables a considered and detailed analysis of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How will America vote on election day?

Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, will use the 2024 exit poll to highlight differences between men and women voters in relation to the abortion issue.

The poll will also show how the economy ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump’s stance on low taxation gained or lost him votes among different social groups. Did Kamala Harris’s association with the Biden administration and the challenges of illegal immigration prove to be a positive or a negative in her bid for the White House?

👉 Tap here to follow the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts 👈

All very interesting, but aren’t we all tuning in to see who’s won? While the US exit poll can, in theory, be used for this purpose it is unwise to do so in what is proving to be an extremely close race.

Sky’s tracker of national polls shows the Democrat blue line and the Republican red line moving ever closer together but with Harris currently marginally ahead. But even if she loses the national vote, the polls would still be within the margin of error.

Of course, she could yet win more votes than Trump and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she lost to him in 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it’s where those votes are and the available number of electoral college votes that matters the most.

Trump beat Clinton because his votes were better distributed than hers. History could be repeated.

Releasing precinct-level voting numbers as counting progresses is essential to US election coverage. The national election pool employs over a thousand researchers to collect votes from each of the 50 states.

Read more:
Six ways election could play out
Every move matters in a race teetering on knife edge

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Additionally, NBC News will augment these figures with more detailed analysis prior to making its call for each state and the electoral college votes for Harris or Trump. The first to reach 270 college votes wins.

Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC’s decision desk.

Although the broadcasters have pooled resources to bring us the exit poll, each will independently analyse the actual voting figures as they become available.

Lapinsky and his team on behalf of NBC will call the state for either Harris or Trump only when they are satisfied that the leading candidate’s vote is sufficiently large that he or she cannot be overtaken.

This a big moment for each broadcaster, especially when the race is likely to be close and where social media may be playing a significant role in stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.

With so much at stake, these decisions will take time and patience.

Our July election was done and dusted in time for the breakfast bulletins. It could be days of counting, recounting and legal appeals before we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

Continue Reading

US

Marjorie Taylor Greene: Former Trump ally turned critic announces sudden resignation

Published

on

By

Marjorie Taylor Greene: Former Trump ally turned critic announces sudden resignation

Marjorie Taylor Greene – a one-time MAGA ally who has turned into a fierce critic of Donald Trump – has unexpectedly announced she is resigning from Congress.

Her relationship with the president has deteriorated in recent months, and she had vocally campaigned for the justice department to release all of its files concerning the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Mr Trump has been fiercely critical about Ms Greene on Truth Social – describing her as a “lunatic”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘MAGA meltdown going on because of Epstein’

In a statement posted on X, she wrote: “Standing up for American women who were raped at 14, trafficked and used by rich powerful men, should not result in me being called a traitor and threatened by the President of the United States, whom I fought for.”

Ms Greene went on to confirm her last day in office will be on January 5.

The hard-right Republican was one of the most aggressive spokespeople for the Make America Great Again movement – and had become infamous for her combative encounters with journalists, including Sky’s Martha Kelner.

She was known for her susceptibility to conspiracy theories, and was widely denounced for comparing COVID-19 masks and vaccinations to the persecution of Jews during the Holocaust.

More on Congress

On social media, she had made posts advocating violence against Democrat opponents – and casting doubt on the 9/11 terror attacks and the school mass shootings at Parkland and Sandy Hook.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

March: Greene clashes with Sky correspondent

The bond between Ms Greene and Mr Trump started to break down after she lambasted his foreign policy – describing it as “America Last”.

Last week, the president had announced that he was withdrawing his support and endorsement for the 51-year-old, who had been expected to run for re-election in Georgia’s 14th congressional district next November.

Her statement added: “I have too much self-respect and dignity, love my family way too much, and do not want my sweet district to have to endure a hurtful and hateful primary against me by the president we all fought for, only to fight and win my election while Republicans will likely lose the midterms.”

Read more US news:
Trump says Ukraine will have to accept peace plan
President orders release of Jeffrey Epstein files

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Shame on everyone that protected Epstein’

A few days ago, Ms Greene had warned the breakdown in relations with the White House had led to her construction company receiving a pipe bomb threat.

She had written on X: “President Trump’s unwarranted and vicious attacks against me were a dog whistle to dangerous radicals that could lead to serious attacks on me and my family.”

Ms Greene went on to warn his inflammatory rhetoric “puts blood in the water and creates a feeding frenzy that could ultimately lead to a harmful or even deadly outcome”.

Continue Reading

US

Pras Michel: Fugees rapper ‘who betrayed US for money’ is jailed for 14 years

Published

on

By

Pras Michel: Fugees rapper 'who betrayed US for money' is jailed for 14 years

A Grammy-winning rapper who “betrayed his country for money” has been sentenced to 14 years in prison.

Prakazrel “Pras” Michel, who was part of 1990s hip-hop group The Fugees, was convicted of illegally funnelling millions of dollars in foreign contributions to Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012.

The Justice Department had accused the 53-year-old of accepting $120m (£92m) from Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho, who wanted to gain political influence in the US.

The Fugees after winning Grammys in 1997. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The Fugees after winning Grammys in 1997. Pic: Reuters

Prosecutors said Michel “lied unapologetically and unrelentingly to carry out his actions” – and sought to deceive the White House, senior politicians and the FBI for almost a decade.

In 2018, it is claimed he urged the Trump administration and the justice department to drop embezzlement investigations against Low.

Michel was convicted of 10 counts by a federal jury in 2023 – and last month, he was ordered to forfeit about $65m (£50m) for his role in the scheme.

Hollywood star Leonardo DiCaprio testified at the trial, and Low was a primary financier in his 2013 film The Wolf Of Wall Street.

More on Crime

The Oscar-winning actor said the businessman’s funding and legitimacy had been carefully vetted before they entered a partnership.

Low Taek Jho. AP file pic
Image:
Low Taek Jho. AP file pic

Prosecutors had been seeking a life sentence to “reflect the breadth and depth of Michel’s crimes, his indifference to the risks to his country, and the magnitude of his greed”.

However, the rapper’s lawyer Peter Zeidenberg has argued that the 14-year term is “completely disproportionate to the offence” – and is vowing to appeal.

Last year, a judge rejected Michel’s request for a new trial after claiming that one of his lawyers had used AI during closing arguments.

Read more from Sky News:
Strictly star ‘arrested on suspicion of rape’
The Stone Roses bassist Mani dies aged 63

Wyclef Jean, Lauryn Hill and Pras Michel formed The Fugees in the 1990s
Image:
Wyclef Jean, Lauryn Hill and Pras Michel formed The Fugees in the 1990s

Low Taek Jho has been accused of having a central role in the 1MDB scandal, amid claims billions of dollars were stolen from a Malaysian state fund.

The 44-year-old is a fugitive but has maintained his innocence, with his lawyers writing: “Low’s motivation for giving Michel money to donate was not so that he could achieve some policy objective.

“Instead, Low simply wanted to obtain a photograph with himself and then President Obama.”

Michel, who was born in Brooklyn, was a founding member of The Fugees with childhood friends Lauryn Hill and Wyclef Jean – selling tens of millions of records.

Continue Reading

US

Trump peace plan: We could all pay if Europe doesn’t step up and guarantee Ukraine’s security

Published

on

By

Trump peace plan: We could all pay if Europe doesn't step up and guarantee Ukraine's security

The Donald Trump peace plan is nothing of the sort. It takes Russian demands and presents them as peace proposals, in what is effectively for Ukraine a surrender ultimatum.

If accepted, it would reward armed aggression. The principle, sacrosanct since the Second World War, for obvious and very good reasons, that even de facto borders cannot be changed by force, will have been trampled on at the behest of the leader of the free world.

The Kremlin will have imposed terms via negotiators on a country it has violated, and whose people its troops have butchered, massacred and raped. It is without doubt the biggest crisis in Trans-Atlantic relations since the war began, if not since the inception of NATO.

The question now is: are Europe’s leaders up to meeting the daunting challenges that will follow. On past form, we cannot be sure.

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. Pic: Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov via Reuters
Image:
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. Pic: Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov via Reuters

The plan proposes the following:

• Land seized by Vladimir Putin’s unwarranted and unprovoked invasion would be ceded by Kyiv.

• Territory his forces have fought but failed to take with colossal loss of life will be thrown into the bargain for good measure.

Ukraine will be barred from NATO, from having long-range weapons, from hosting foreign troops, from allowing foreign diplomatic planes to land, and its military neutered, reduced in size by more than half.

Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, File pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, File pic: Reuters

And most worryingly for Western leaders, the plan proposes NATO and Russia negotiate with America acting as mediator.

Lest we forget, America is meant to be the strongest partner in NATO, not an outside arbitrator. In one clause, Mr Trump’s lack of commitment to the Western alliance is laid bare in chilling clarity.

And even for all that, the plan will not bring peace. Mr Putin has made it abundantly clear he wants all of Ukraine.

He has a proven track record of retiring, rallying his forces, then returning for more. Reward a bully as they say, and he will only come back for more. Why wouldn’t he, if he is handed the fortress cities of Donetsk and a clear run over open tank country to Kyiv in a few years?

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

US draft Russia peace plan

Since the beginning of Trump’s presidency, Europe has tried to keep the maverick president onside when his true sympathies have repeatedly reverted to Moscow.

It has been a demeaning and sycophantic spectacle, NATO’s secretary general stooping even to calling the US president ‘Daddy’. And it hasn’t worked. It may have made matters worse.

A choir sing in front of an apartment building destroyed in a Russian missile strike in Ternopil, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A choir sing in front of an apartment building destroyed in a Russian missile strike in Ternopil, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

The parade of world leaders trooping through Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, lavishing praise on his Gaza ceasefire plan, only encouraged him to believe he is capable of solving the world’s most complex conflicts with the minimum of effort.

The Gaza plan is mired in deepening difficulty, and it never came near addressing the underlying causes of the war.

Read more:
Ukraine war latest: Putin welcomes peace plan
Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full

Most importantly, principles the West has held inviolable for eight decades cannot be torn up for the sake of a quick and uncertain peace.

With a partner as unreliable, the challenge to Europe cannot be clearer.

In the words of one former Baltic foreign minister: “There is a glaringly obvious message for Europe in the 28-point plan: This is the end of the end.

“We have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will be Europe’s responsibility. And now it is. Entirely.”

If Europe does not step up to the plate and guarantee Ukraine’s security in the face of this American betrayal, we could all pay the consequences.

Continue Reading

Trending