As the first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs shift to the home ice of the underdogs, some teams have been pushed to the brink of elimination.

Will that be the case for the Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils or Edmonton Oilers, as they carry 2-0 deficits into Friday?

Game 3 will be an important one. In Stanley Cup playoff history, teams with a 2-0 series lead have gone on to win the series 86% of the time; teams that have taken a 3-0 series lead have gone on to win 98% of the time.

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Thursday’s games, and the Three Stars of Thursday Night from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens
Game 3 (WSH leads 2-0) | 7 p.m. ET | TNT

Strangely, the Capitals have not done well historically after going up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series. They are the NHL’s only team with a losing record (4-6) in that situation.

Capitals goalie Logan Thompson didn’t play during the Vegas Golden Knights‘ Stanley Cup run in 2023, and he is more than making up for it with his play in this series. In Game 2, Thompson stopped all 14 third-period shots from the Canadiens to preserve the Caps’ lead. Overall, he has a .951 save percentage and 1.47 goals-against average for the series.

Connor McDavid or Connor McMichael? The Caps’ winger scored two goals in a Game 2 win, his first career multigoal game. McDavid has more multigoal games in his career but has not had one yet this postseason.

The Canadiens have had three different goal scorers in the series, including first-line forwards Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, as well as veteran Christian Dvorak. For Dvorak, his goal in Game 2 was the third of his career.

Though Thompson has been a big story for the Caps, Sam Montembeault has been equally vital to the Canadiens. He has made some impressive saves en route to a .921 save percentage and 2.49 goals-against average (rates that a number of other teams would love to see from their goaltenders).

Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils
Game 3 (CAR leads 2-0) | 8 p.m. ET | TBS

The Hurricanes continued an impressive streak by winning Game 2 on Tuesday, as they’ve gone up 2-0 in each of their past five first-round series.

Frederik Andersen made 25 saves in Game 2, earning his 13th playoff win with Carolina, which is one shy of tying Arturs Irbe for the second-most playoff wins in Hurricanes/Whalers franchise history.

News flash: Seth Jarvis is good. His goal in Game 2 was his 14th career playoff goal, which ties Sebastian Aho for the most postseason goals scored by a player age 23 or younger in franchise history.

New Jersey is hoping for good news on injured players, as Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon sat out Tuesday’s game. Hughes averaged the second-most ice time per game on the team in the regular season (21:09), behind only Brett Pesce (21:19).

Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom has been solid in two defeats, with 66 saves on 71 shots (.930 save percentage).

Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 (LA leads 2-0) | 10 p.m. ET | TNT

With the caveat that the Oilers can never be counted out, the Kings now have history on their side as they look to escape the first round: the franchise has a 7-1 series record all time when leading 2-0 in a best-of-seven series.

The Kings’ power play continues to drive their success. Including the end of the regular season, they have scored a power-play goal in seven straight games, and are 5-for-10 in this series. That has helped them produce six goals in each of the first two games, a feat that has not been done since the 2014 San Jose Sharks (who did it against the Kings).

In Game 2, Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar became the first duo of Kings players to have four or more points in the same playoff game since Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey in 1992 (coincidentally, also against the Oilers).

After an uneven start to the 2023 playoffs, Stuart Skinner was benched, which seemed to improve his play thereafter. The Oilers are hoping something similar happens here; Skinner gave up five goals on 28 shots in Game 2 before being pulled. He is the third goalie in Oilers playoff history to give up five goals in consecutive playoff games, joining Grant Fuhr (1984, 1985) and Andy Moog (1981, 1983); the Oilers won the Stanley Cup in 1984 and ’85.

The Stars have shown up for Edmonton — Connor McDavid has four points, and Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl have three apiece — but the depth scoring has not been there. Could Kris Knoblauch jumble his lines a bit heading into Game 3?

Arda’s three stars from Thursday night

When the Blues needed him, he delivered: a hat trick and an assist in a 7-2 win as St. Louis avoids going down 3-0 vs. Winnipeg.

With his two power-play goals in the win over the Golden Knights, Kaprizov climbed an impressive list; according to ESPN Research, only Mario Lemieux and John Druce have more power-play goals in their first 22 playoff games.

With his second straight game-winning goal, Schmidt became the first Panthers defenseman with two winning goals in one postseason.

Thursday’s scores

Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
FLA leads 2-0

Defenseman Nate Schmidt scored a goal for the second straight game and Sergei Bobrovsky stopped all 19 shots the Lightning took on goal as the defending Cup champs took another on the road to start their playoff journey. But the biggest story in the aftermath was Brandon Hagel‘s hit on Aleksander Barkov that resulted in a five-minute major penalty — and knocked Barkov out of the game. Full recap.

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Nate Schmidt’s slapshot gives Panthers the early lead

Nate Schmidt scores on a slapshot to give the Panthers a 1-0 lead vs. the Lightning.

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
TOR leads 3-0

For the second straight game, the two teams needed extra time to settle matters. And for the second straight game, the Maple Leafs emerge victorious, sending the Senators to the brink of elimination. Claude Giroux and Matthew Knies traded power-play goals in the second, followed by Auston Matthews and Brady Tkachuk in the third. Leafs defenseman Simon Benoit scored the game winner on a seeing-eye shot from distance 1:19 into OT. Recap.

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Simon Benoit’s OT winner gives Leafs 3-0 series lead

Simon Benoit nets the overtime winner for the Maple Leafs to give them a 3-0 series lead over the Senators.

Minnesota Wild 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
MIN leads 2-1

Well, this is an interesting one. In a postseason thus far driven by the favorites taking series leads, the Wild have outpaced the heavily favored Golden Knights through three games of this series. Kirill Kaprizov added a pair of goals in this one, giving him four this postseason. The Wild have scored five goals in two straight games, and 12 overall for the series. Recap.

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Marcus Foligno’s empty-netter completes Game 3 win for Wild

Marcus Foligno scores with under two minutes left to give the Wild a 5-2 win over the Golden Knights.

St. Louis Blues 7, Winnipeg Jets 2
WPG leads 2-1

St. Louis will not go quietly into the night. The Blues netted three goals in the first period — including the first two of Pavel Buchnevich‘s hat trick — and didn’t look back. Buchnevich also tallied an assist, while Cam Fowler (one goal, four assists) and Robert Thomas (four assists) joined him in filling up the box score. Recap.

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Pavel Buchnevich completes his hat trick for Blues

Pavel Buchnevich scores his third goal of the game for a hat trick to put the Blues up 4-1 over the Jets.

EMOTIONS TUG AT Clayton Powell-Lee as he pulls open the doors to the Georgia Tech football team facility a few minutes before noon on Monday. The 21-year-old strong safety has spent some sleep-deprived nights for the past month searching for an answer to perhaps the most consequential choice of his life: Stay put on his current team or transfer in search of a bigger payday.

Decision time has arrived.

If he stays at Georgia Tech for his final season of eligibility, he can build on his 53 tackles as a starter last season, after which he landed a six-figure name, image and likeness contract with the school. But Powell-Lee says he’s worth more. His agents — Jacob Piasecki and Jason Bloom of A&P Sports Agency — and his mother agree.

Earlier that morning, Georgia Tech had declined to negotiate an increase, Powell-Lee’s agents said. But the market for defensive backs is booming, they told him, and chances are good he could double his current payday. Provided, that is, he was willing to set aside his notions of team loyalty, leave his hometown Atlanta and abandon the school where his father, Gary Lee, had caught touchdown passes for the Yellow Jackets in the 1980s.

Sitting outside the team facility moments before entering, Powell-Lee dials into a conference call with Piasecki, Bloom, and his mother, Rometta Powell. All had agreed to let ESPN listen in.

“They need to be shook awake,” Rometta Powell says to the group. “They’re trying to play games. They’ve got the money.”

The pressure is building on Powell-Lee. The next step, they tell him, is to go upstairs and get the paperwork from a compliance officer to enter the transfer portal. Powell-Lee agrees with the others on the call, hangs up and pulls open the doors. But instead of the compliance office, he soon finds himself standing in the doorway of head coach Brent Key.

“I told him I had an offer on the table,” Powell-Lee said. “I have an offer on the table, and it’s sitting there in front of me.”

THE TRANSFER PORTAL — a phrase heard often in the NIL era but perhaps little understood by the general public — is extinguishing any remaining pretenses of amateurism in college football. Twice a year, players are set loose in an untamed, largely opaque marketplace to seek new teams and increasingly large sums of money. There are few, if any, universal truths or safe blanket statements that fully describe how this emerging world operates, but during the 10-day opening of the portal starting April 16, ESPN received an inside look at how some agents and general managers work with athletes and their families to sort through their options.

The player. The agents. The recruiter. All come together at the portal. This is a glimpse of the frenzied new reality of how college football rosters are formed.

The construction of a college football roster has changed dramatically in the past several years thanks to the introduction of NIL deals that serve as de facto salaries and a federal court order that allows players to transfer with almost no restrictions. The portal serves as a formal declaration that athletes are interested in hearing from new suitors.

The transfer market moves with the force of a riptide. Coaches act fast to fill the gaps in their rosters. The waves of players who enter risk losing their spot if they hesitate to pick a new school. To speed things along, the nitty-gritty aspects of deal-making in the portal are often sorted between two relatively new creatures to the college football universe: a team’s general manager and a player’s agent.

Gone are the days of predictable rosters and lengthy recruiting courtships where coaches sat in prospects’ living rooms to make their pitch. While many players will still visit campus and meet the coaching staff before officially signing with a team, most of their decisions are made in a matter of days through an onslaught of text messages, phone tag and two-minute calls that reach ,pitch on the day the portal opens.

JACOB PIASECKI HAS his phone pressed to his ear when he arrives at A&P Agency’s offices in Austin, Texas, shortly after 9 a.m. on April 16. Six of his agency’s roughly 120 clients have already declared their interest in transferring as of the portal’s opening day, and by the sound of the current call, another player is eager to join them.

The SEC player on the other end of the line just finished his post-spring-practice meeting with his coaches. The player has learned he’s not a guaranteed starter and therefore isn’t likely to receive a pay bump from his current $50,000 NIL contract.

Piasecki waves Bloom, A&P’s general manager, into his glass-walled office from across the hall. They both believe the player can command first-stringer money if he decides to transfer, which would mean making between five and 10 times what he currently makes.

The player’s parents have already called the coach to ask for more information. Are the coaches playing games to keep his value down? Parental intervention is exactly what Bloom and Piasecki don’t want. The agents’ goal, they say, is to serve as the sole point of contact with teams and move forward strategically. They coordinate with the player and his parents, setting up a plan to ask his current team for a raise before exploring options. By the end of the day, that player will be in the portal, but for now the morning’s first brushfire has been extinguished.

The corridor leading to Piasecki’s office is lined with boxes of promotional merchandise soon to be mailed to clients. The decor consists of posters and footballs signed by players A&P has represented. On one bookshelf along with memorabilia are two thick textbooks: “Astrophysics” and “Quantum Mechanics.” They are the last vestiges of the physics degree he was wrapping up at Texas A&M when he decided to launch his agency alongside co-founder Stefan Aguilera.

That was 2021, the first year college players could make money from NIL deals.

They have since built a six-person team and partnered with a fellow Texas A&M alum, attorney Tony Buzbee, whose law firm reviews the contracts A&P players sign. The agency says last year it generated roughly $1.25 million in revenue, a number they say should grow this spring as they represent a number of highly ranked players in the transfer portal. Physics class is mostly a distant memory.

“Physics teaches you to take really complicated problems and break them down into smaller pieces to solve one at a time,” Piasecki said. “And that’s pretty much what we’re doing here. It’s just piecing together a ton of small problems.”

POWELL-LEE MET with Piasecki and Bloom in early March to discuss what he wanted to get out of his last season of college football. That’s when the emotional tug became apparent. On the one hand, Powell-Lee said he wanted to finish his career and get his degree at Georgia Tech. On the other, he wanted a showcase to maximize his NFL draft potential.

He told the agents he would consider other schools if he couldn’t get a better deal from Georgia Tech.

“Obviously when you’ve been in a place for so long and coaches know you, you don’t necessarily want to leave,” Powell-Lee told ESPN. “But at this point, college football is a business. Decisions have to be made with money and playing time in mind. … Jacob and Jason have a lot of connections, so it’s about just letting them be my ears in the market.”

A&P’s team spends most of the spring working phones or traveling to meet with general managers from as many teams as possible, the agents said.

In mid-March, Piasecki and Bloom visited the University of Virginia. The Cavaliers’ recruiting director, Justin Speros, told them his coaches’ wish list included one or more defensive backs. The agents mentioned Powell-Lee among others who might be interested in transferring.

Coaches and staff members are prohibited from contacting any player who has not yet formally entered the transfer portal, but there are no rules against contact with agents to register a team’s needs. Schools, generally, won’t make any specific promises before a player is in the portal, but the current system provides ample gray area to make it clear to agents and their athletes what kind of money they could stand to make in the portal. So Powell-Lee’s “offer on the table” would have been more conceptual than literal during his meeting with his coach.

Speros says he did not make any specific offer to Powell-Lee or other players who were not in the portal. The interactions ESPN witnessed appeared to stay within NCAA rules.

“I might say ‘Hey, I need corners, so if you’ve got a guy, call me up once the portal opens,'” Speros told ESPN. “This past winter was really the first year that if you weren’t talking to the agent, you weren’t really recruiting a kid. You’re eight steps behind if you don’t know about a kid before he hits the portal.”

Bloom calls Speros at 12:36 p.m. on April 16, hours after the portal has officially opened. As the phone rings, he and Piasecki scan through lists and spreadsheets. One includes estimates of each client’s potential market value, calculated using their recruiting rankings, college experience, Pro Football Focus rating and current demand at their position, among other factors. Another lists teams and their current needs, based on information the agency gained from contacts earlier this spring.

Every past offer any team has made to one of its players is also recorded, along with contract comparisons organized by position and conference to get a sense of the market. Unlike in the NFL, player contracts are not public in college football. Good data is hard to find.

Using an agent — especially those who represent scores of clients — can help athletes get access to a better picture of the market. But that comes at a cost. A&P takes an 8% cut on most of the deals for Power 4 conference players it represents. That number can go as high as 15%, especially for young players or FCS-level players who won’t generate as much attention in the portal on their own.

It’s not clear how many of the thousands of athletes who entered the transfer portal this year are represented by agents, but several industry experts estimate that more than half have no representation.

Throughout the first day, Bloom and A&P’s director of scouting, Will Scott, constantly monitor online lists of players who have just entered the portal. A new listing is a new potential client. Scott has data on around 200 players he has evaluated ahead of time and A&P would like to represent if they want to transfer.

They reach out to players via direct message on Instagram to gauge their interest. Bloom calls to pitch prospects, usually citing the agency’s relationships with general managers throughout the country and unique brand endorsements its agents have arranged for athletes in the past, such as an arranged visit with celebrity jeweler Johnny Dang.

Most of the agents’ day, though, is consumed in a barrage of brief, unemotional phone calls. Some players receive raises from their current teams. Others jump in the portal and start to generate offers.

By 9 p.m., the A&P team is slouched in chairs around a conference room table covered with takeout trays of barbecue. People scroll through social media and text messages while making a plan for the next day, cracking jokes that are a better fit for locker rooms than boardrooms.

Most of the A&P team is not yet 30 years old. None of them had experience in the sports agent industry before joining A&P. But on just the first day of portal season, the group generated nearly $1 million in new money for clients. That’s the goal, Bloom says: a million dollars a day while the portal remains open.

“It is a little wild,” Piasecki says to the room, “that we’re just six guys in an office in Texas but we’re shaping a market for these institutions that bring in millions and millions.”

IT’S LATE THURSDAY morning and Day 2 of the 10-day sprint. At UVA, recruiting director Speros says he’s happy with his progress hunting for tackles and defensive ends, but defensive backs are proving to be an elusive, rare commodity in this spring’s portal.

Bloom and Piasecki are on the phone pitching Speros with prospects from their growing list of portal-declared clients. The agents offer defensive ends, a tight end and a running back.

Speros cuts them off. “I’m wasting my breath right now if I’m not talking about DBs, guys,” he says.

He tells ESPN that, for any position where he needs one or two players to fill out a depth chart, he knows he’ll need roughly 10 “hooks in the water” to make it work. Sometimes the players scouted will choose another team. Others come with too high of an asking price.

“We prefer not to be transactional, but it just is what it is,” Speros says. “There are things we need to do to keep pressing forward. And what that means is a lot of either just getting to a number or not getting to the number and moving on.”

Speros and Tyler Jones, a deputy athletic director, oversee the budget for building out their roster. For this spring, their total spending power is a somewhat flexible number that combines the money the school is expecting to be able to share with players directly starting this summer along with contributions from the school’s booster collective.

Speros and his staff have done months of scouting hundreds of players across college football to get a sense of what they’re willing to pay. As new players who might fit Virginia’s needs enter the portal, a group of interns creates short film cutups of their highlights so the coaching staff can evaluate the players based on about a dozen plays. Virginia also uses multiple data analytics programs to rate players and get a sense of their market value.

With one of the team’s starting cornerbacks out for the season with an ACL tear and a lot of interest in defensive backfield players, Speros acknowledges he’ll have to act fast and potentially pay high rates to fill that gap on the depth chart.

Bloom tells him that Powell-Lee is scheduled to meet with his coaches at Georgia Tech the following day and will make a decision about the portal soon after. Speros expresses interest. Enough interest, in fact, that he’s willing to sit tight on a few other options at safety until he hears about Powell-Lee’s decision.

A long weekend passes, and Powell-Lee is still unsure of how he wants to proceed. During spring practice, he told reporters he had developed a new sense of chemistry with his fellow defensive backs at Georgia Tech and felt a duty to help the younger players get settled into their new positions.

He hasn’t heard the answers he wants from coaches when he has asked about a raise, but now, with less than a week before the portal window closes, ambivalence sets in as he approaches the team facility to start the portal registration paperwork.

His agents say it would be crazy for Powell-Lee to pass up the money he could get in the portal. His mother, Powell-Lee says, has been supportive throughout the process but also tells him not to shy away from getting what he’s worth.

Still, he says, something doesn’t feel right.

“I was just sitting there, I was just thinking to myself, like, something in my heart and my gut is just telling me not to go grab those papers right now but instead go up there yourself and tell them that you want to talk to them,” Powell-Lee said a few days later.

He said his discussion with Coach Key went well. And later that night he discovered some new information that made his decision much easier: Virginia will accept only up to 60 credit hours of previous coursework for any transfer student. For Powell-Lee, that would mean essentially erasing a year’s worth of credits he has earned at Georgia Tech, making it impossible to graduate in the same academic year that he wraps up his college football career.

“I had to really just sit there and ask myself, is that really worth losing all those credits to make however much money?” Powell-Lee said. “Personally, I was like, no, it’s not fully worth it, honestly.”

Powell-Lee declined to say how much money he was potentially leaving on the table other than to say it was “a lot.”

By Wednesday, Powell-Lee had officially decided he wasn’t going to enter the portal. Virginia and Speros had already moved on to search for new options on defense. Piasecki and Bloom said Georgia Tech agreed to provide Powell-Lee with a relatively small increase in pay after learning about some of his other options — but nothing that compared to what other schools thought they might be willing to pay him.

“It just is what it is,” Bloom said. “That’s the business we’re in.”

Even though the transfer portal often makes it seem as if money trumps all other considerations, sometimes there are refreshing surprises. For Powell-Lee, at least, academics ultimately tipped the balance.

Spring football is winding down for college programs around the country, whether with open practices and other fan events, or the more traditional spring games.

Texas, which helped set off the buzz around spring games in February with Steve Sarkisian’s announcement that his team was scrapping the scrimmage, instead will host a fan day Saturday, promising to “roll out the burnt orange carpet for Longhorn Nation” with activities including autograph sessions and photo ops, a street fest and on-field drills for kids 12 and under.

Nebraska, Iowa and Baylor are among other schools that will wrap up their spring sessions with similar events.

But several big-name diehards will carry on with their spring games Saturday, most notably four Big Ten schools, including playoff participants Oregon and Penn State.

All times Eastern.

Game time: Saturday, noon, Big Ten Network

Spring storyline: The Terrapins face a challenging offseason after going 1-8 in the Big Ten last year before losing several key players to the transfer portal, including quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Wisconsin). Finding a new QB starter who can thrive — whether it’s UCLA transfer Justyn Martin or ESPN 300 incoming freshman Malik Washington — will be key to any turnaround.

Position of intrigue: The offensive line struggled last year, finishing with a Big Ten-worst 39.7% blown block rate. Akron transfer Jayvin James already reentered the portal after arriving in December, but ESPN 300 signee Jaylen Gilchrist could help boost a running game that averaged just 3.59 yards per attempt in 2024.

Player to watch: Jalil Farooq caught 89 career passes at Oklahoma until breaking his foot in the opener last season. He has the talent to give Maryland a game breaker at wideout with All-Big Ten performer Tai Felton gone. — Jake Trotter

Game time: Saturday, 2 p.m.

Spring storyline: The Nittany Lions snagged Jim Knowles, who just coordinated the No. 1 defense in college football last season at Ohio State. Penn State made him the highest-paid coordinator in the country ($3.1 million). Knowles will begin molding the Nittany Lions defense this spring, with plenty of talent to deploy.

Position of intrigue: The Nittany Lions have to get more production out of their wide receivers from quarterback Drew Allar, especially with All-American tight end Tyler Warren on the way to the NFL. Penn State is banking that transfers Devonte Ross (Troy) and Kyron Hudson (USC) can help elevate a spot that’s been underwhelming in recent years.

Player to watch: Dani Dennis-Sutton will get his chance to shine as Penn State’s top pass rusher, with Abdul Carter off to the NFL as one of the top picks in the draft. — Trotter

Game time: Saturday, 2 p.m., BTN

Spring storyline: Rutgers won four Big Ten games last year for the first time since joining in the league in 2014. With Athan Kaliakmanis back (30 career college starts) as the starting quarterback, the Scarlet Knights have the chance to take another step forward, especially if the majority of their key transfers portal additions come through.

Position of intrigue: The Scarlet Knights added a pair of prolific pass rushers through the transfer portal in Eric O’Neill and Bradley Weaver. O’Neill was first-team All-Sun Belt after recording 13 sacks and a pick-six for James Madison. Weaver was second-team All-MAC at Ohio with 8.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. If those two additions click, Rutgers could boast an elite pass rush.

Player to watch: The Scarlet Knights are replacing outgoing first-team All-Big Ten running back Kyle Monangai with CJ Campbell Jr., who rushed for 844 yards and caught 40 passes with 14 total touchdowns for Florida Atlantic last season. — Trotter

Game time: Saturday, 4 p.m., BTN

Spring storyline: The development of quarterback Dante Moore inside the Oregon offense will be the headliner. Offensive coordinator Will Stein has been able to cater to Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, but Moore presents a new, but intriguing, wrinkle: a quarterback who has been in the building for a whole season, learning from Gabriel and Stein, and ready to take on a bigger role.

Position of intrigue: Linebacker. The Ducks are losing a ton at the position with the departure of start Jeffrey Bassa. There isn’t a clear-cut leader at the position (Devon Jackson, who has 47 career tackles, is returning) or any particular additions that stand out, so it will be interesting to see if any player emerges at the position.

Player to watch: Malik Benson. The Florida State transfer doesn’t have eye-popping numbers (25 catches for 311 yards and a touchdown last year), but he brings experience and a different dynamic to the Ducks’ receiving room, which just lost leading receiver Tez Johnson to the NFL. Alongside Evan Stewart and Gary Bryant Jr., Benson could turn into a key target for Moore. — Paolo Uggetti