There’s fear in some quarters of another Donald Trump presidency but will the economics be that bad?
Not a single vote has been counted but the policies of a possible second Trump presidency have already influenced financial markets.
The cost of US and UK borrowing – measured through 10-year revenue-raising instruments called bonds – has been upped as traders eyed the price-rising impact a Trump presidency could have on the world’s biggest economy.
If Trump clinches victory could we see global economic repercussions?
A signature policy of his – tariffs – could make things worse for US consumers, in turn hurting the world economy of which the UK is a part.
Precise detail on what tariffs Trump would apply on what goods and from where remains to be seen. He’s said all goods coming into the country could be slapped with a 10% tax.
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Goods from China are going to be particularly hit with an anticipated 60% levy.
Why tariffs?
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The hope is that by making imports more expensive goods made in the US will be more competitive and comparatively cheaper. More people would buy those things and life would be better for US producers, the thinking goes.
If US producers are doing well, they’ll hire more people, Trump expects. He’s calculating that more people working for US companies doing well will make for a strong economy and happy voters.
Parts of America have been severely impacted by factory closures as companies move to parts of the world with cheaper wages and operating costs.
This accelerated since the 1990s when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) made it easier and cheaper to export to the US, reducing the incentive to produce in the country.
Image: Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Pic: Reuters
Blue-collar workers, traditionally not college-educated, lost and continue to lose out majorly from plant closures. These are the voters Trump is targeting and who form his base of support.
It’s worth noting Trump isn’t the only fan of tariffs with the Biden administration implementing them on Chinese electric cars, solar panels, steel and aluminium as it sought to protect the investment it had made in such industries from cheap and heavily subsidised goods.
What will the effect be?
China, unsurprisingly, will be levied the highest and experience the greatest direct strike.
The hit will be “notably negative”, according to analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), a leading thinktank.
It will face short-term pressures on manufacturing and trade with its gross domestic product (GDP) – the measure of everything produced in the country – to fall about 1% a year for two years, NIESR says.
Economists at Capital Economics quantify the cost at about a 0.5% to 0.7% reduction in GDP.
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7:56
UK should ‘expect’ Trump tarrifs
The US
That said the effects will be felt most keenly by those living in the US who will pay more.
If usually cheap imported goods get pricier that probably will cause the overall rate of inflation to rise.
Here the knock-on influences emerge. Higher inflation will just mean more expensive borrowing through upped interest rates as the US central bank, known as the Fed, will act to reduce inflation.
There’s no mystery around how high interest rates can weigh on an economy, the literal goal of hiked rates is to suppress buying power and to take money out of the economy.
Fears of the US ending up in recession spooked stock markets and triggered a global sell-off just three months ago.
Stock prices can seem nebulous but they impact the value of most people’s pensions.
A recession isn’t predicted but the US economy will falter, NIESR says.
Economic growth in America, as measured by GDP, would decrease by around 1.3 to 1.8 percentage points over the next two years, depending on whether the countries it trades with retaliate, upping their own duties on US goods.
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As tariffs make exporting less favourable exporters will simply export less, meaning less is produced and the worldwide economy slows.
The blow to the global economic output could be a 2% GDP drop after five years of Trump being in office, according to NIESR.
The consequences of Trump tariffs won’t just be short-term, NIESR forecasts, with global GDP still lower than it would have been without the imposition even in 15 years’ time.
Specific countries will be hit worse than others: Mexico and Canada for whom the US makes up roughly 80% and 50 % of trade, respectively will experience the greatest pain.
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It doesn’t look too bad for the European Union (EU) by comparison and could even be good for the bloc, some say.
NIESR reckons the euro area will be less badly affected than the UK over five years but the immediate impact will be worse.
The good news first: if Trump doesn’t lean too heavily into tariffs and focuses more on cutting taxes to grow the economy that bump could lead to stronger demand for European goods, notwithstanding import levies, suggests research from economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.
The bad news: it won’t look so good if the US economy turns bad through more aggressive policies like high tariffs on more goods, the firm says. That would mean a “large” fall in European exports, it adds.
And finally, some neutral news: not even high tariffs would be inflationary for the continent, Oxford Economics expects. Reduced demand and lower goods prices would just offset the higher import costs, it says.
Another firm, Capital Economics, also isn’t too concerned about the European economy under Trump.
“Smaller than many fear”, is how it described the suspected short-term macroeconomic consequences.
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2:22
How does the US election work?
What about the UK?
It’s got to be bad for the UK, right? The US is the country’s biggest trading partner after all, making up just under 20% of our trade
Again, not so. The UK doesn’t even make it into the top 10 worst-affected countries under NIESR’s research.
Capital Economics anticipates the knock would be small and maybe even positive, though inflation may be higher than if there were no second Trump administration.
But there’s no consensus on this point with NIESR forecasting GDP will be lower because of fewer exports and higher global interest rates.
This downturn would slow UK exports to other countries, NIESR says.
NIESR estimates UK GDP could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower in 2025. So instead of the 1.5% rate of GDP predicted by the IMF for next year, the economy would grow by 0.5%.
A profit measure called earnings per share was also better than expected at $1.30.
It matters as Nvidia has powered the artificial intelligence (AI) boom through its computer chips, which are key parts in AI chatbots such as ChatGPT.
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Nvidia has major tech companies as clients and acts as a good proxy for whether the tens of billions of dollars invested in AI is paying off.
Its chief executive, Jensen Huang, has been described as the Godfather of AI and watch parties were organised for those looking to follow the Wednesday evening announcement.
The company has been a massive beneficiary of the push to put money into AI, with its share price reaching stratospheric highs.
In October, it became the first worth $5trn (£3.83trn), about the size of the German economy, Europe’s largest, and double the UK’s benchmark stock index, the FTSE 100.
What’s been announced?
Revenue from data centres reached a record high of $51.2bn, more than £10bn higher than the three months previous.
The outlook is for continuing strong sales in the final three months of the financial year, as the company forecasts revenue will be roughly $65bn.
Demand for Nvidia products continues to surpass expectations, while the business is “still in the early innings” of AI transitions, its chief financial officer Colette Kress said.
Mr Huang said sales of its blackwell chips are “off the charts” and its cloud graphics processing chips (GPUs) are “sold out”.
Why it matters
Developing AI infrastructure, like the construction of data centres, has been a significant contributor to US economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).
A faltering of AI expansion, therefore, impacts the US economy, the world’s largest, which in turn affects the UK and global economies.
Anxiety around the massive valuations tech companies have accrued, on the hope of AI revolutionising the world, is likely to be staved off by the results announcement.
A fall in these tech company valuations could have meant a drop in the value of pension pots or savings.
Just seven dominant tech companies, many of which have borrowed to invest in AI, make up more than a quarter of major US stock index, the S&P 500.
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1:11
Could the AI bubble burst?
In the last year alone, Nvidia’s share price has risen more than 230%.
Some, including US trader Michael Burry, famous for being played by Christian Bale in the Hollywood film The Big Short, have effectively bet that Nvidia’s share price would fall.
Addressing the topic of an AI bubble, Nvidia’s founder, Mr Huang, said, “From our vantage point, we see something very different”.
What next?
Regardless of the figures released on Wednesday evening, significant market moves were anticipated, given the attention paid to the results and the significance of the company.
Nvidia shares rose as much as 4% in after-hours trading.
The results also boosted the share price of its chip-making competitors like Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices.
The rate of inflation has eased to 3.6%, according to official figures that make for better reading for the economy and chancellor ahead of the budget.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the slowdown in the consumer prices index (CPI) measure, from the annual 3.8% rate recorded the previous month, was largely down to weaker housing effects, especially from energy bills.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation eased in October, driven mainly by gas and electricity prices, which increased less than this time last year following changes in the Ofgem energy price cap.
“The costs of hotels was also a downward driver, with prices falling this month. These were only partially offset by rising food prices, following the dip seen in September.
“The annual cost of raw materials for businesses continued to increase, while factory gate prices also rose.”
The final part of that statement will be seen as a risk to expectations from economists that the peak pace for price increases is now behind the UK economy after a spike this year that has caused concern among interest rate-setters at the Bank of England.
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October’s data marked the first decline for the inflation rate since March.
It has been widely believed that the figure will ease gradually in the months ahead, helping to cushion household spending power from a slowdown in wage growth.
But key risks include shocks within the global economy and the impact of potential measures in the budget next week.
The chancellor’s first budget was blamed by business groups and economists for helping push up costs since April.
Then, firms passed on hikes to employer national insurance contributions and minimum pay levels imposed by Rachel Reeves.
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7:15
Reeves ‘played a bad hand poorly’
That has been reflected in many supermarket prices, for example, as they are among the biggest employers in the country. The ONS data showed that food inflation rose from 4.5% to 4.9%.
Other factors have contributed too such as high global demand for chicken and shrinking UK cattle herds pushing up beef costs.
Poor cocoa and coffee harvests have resulted in prices spiking too this year, with chocolate standing at record levels this summer.
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0:41
Chancellor reacts to increase in food prices
While food has been a main contributor to inflation, so too has energy, though bills have stabilised this year thanks largely to healthy global supplies of natural gas.
Petrol and diesel costs could become more of a problem for inflation, however.
The AA has blamed global factors for UK fuel prices nearing their highest level for seven months.
The motoring group said that but for the 5p cut in fuel duty under the last Conservative government, pump prices would have returned to pre-COVID levels.
There have been rumours that Ms Reeves could remove that reduction next Wednesday.
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8:31
Why is the economy flatlining?
She said of the ONS figures: “This fall in inflation is good news for households and businesses across the country, but I’m determined to do more to bring prices down.
“That’s why at the budget next week I will take the fair choices to deliver on the public’s priorities to cut NHS waiting lists, cut national debt and cut the cost of living.”
When asked if she recognised a contribution to rising inflation from her first budget, she responded: “Food prices fell last month and they have risen this month.
“But I do recognise that there’s more that we need to do to tackle the cost of living challenges. And that’s why one of the three priorities in my budget next week is to tackle the cost of living, as well as to cut NHS waiting lists and cut government debt.”
The Bank of England’s most recent forecasts see its 2% inflation target not being met until the early part of 2027.
Stubborn inflation in the UK has threatened the pace of interest rate cuts but policymakers are expected, by financial markets at least, to agree a further quarter point reduction next month on the back of weakness in economic growth and the labour market.
Official figures last week showed the UK’s unemployment rate rising to 5% from 4.8% and the pace of wage growth continuing its gradual decline.
Economic output during the third quarter of the year also slowed further to stand at just 0.1%.
The Bank’s rate-setting committee voted 5-4 earlier this month to maintain Bank rate at 4%.
That decision allowed for more data to come in – such as the employment and growth numbers – and, crucially, for the budget to have taken place, ahead of its next meeting.
Global stock markets are seeing sharp declines and bitcoin has lost this year’s gains as worries intensify that the AI (artificial intelligence) boom has become a bubble fit to burst.
A small tear has certainly appeared in US tech stocks over the past week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing below a key technical indicator for the first time since late April on Monday.
Key worries include not only high valuations but also vast investment spending in the AI space harming and delaying investor returns.
Sharp stock market falls were seen across large parts of Asia and Europe following the retreat on Wall Street.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed more than 3% while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.7%.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 was down by just over 1% while Germany’s DAX and the CAC in Paris were 1.2% and 1.3% lower in early afternoon dealing.
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Nerves are jangling over tech as the market awaits financial results from Nvidia on Wednesday night.
Image: The stock market wobble began on Wall Street and many analysts say it’s a healthy move. Pic: AP
They are likely to be crucial in determining the path for shares ahead.
The world’s largest company by market value is the beating heart of Wall Street’s artificial intelligence boom and any sign of slowdowns, for both revenues and profits, will be catalysts for further sell-offs.
Fears have been growing for months that record values are overdone.
Stocks linked to AI suffered particularly on Monday, building on declines seen last week, and futures indicated more pain to come when trading begins in the US, though drops were expected to be limited.
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1:11
Could the AI bubble burst?
Financial analysts said baskets of top AI-linked stocks had now entered so-called correction territory, falling more than 10% in short order this month.
Others pointed to an impact on confidence in the crypto market.
Bitcoin, which hit a $125,000 spot rate level only last month, stood at $91,000 on Tuesday.
It had begun the year around the $94,000 level.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said: “This year was meant to be the year of the bitcoin bulls supported by a highly crypto-friendly administration in the White House and Trump’s ‘less is more’ approach towards regulation.
“However, fears of an AI bubble and concerns about the market’s heavy dependence on a handful of tech giants have caused investors to dial back their exposure to speculative assets such as bitcoin.
“There’s a general sense of nervousness that has captured the market mood lately and bitcoin appears to be in the firing line.”
Wider sentiment has also been harmed by weaker bets on the prospects for a further interest rate cut by the US central bank next month.
Many financial analysts described the stock market shifts as a healthy correction, given all the uncertainties which include the possibility of a US court ruling against Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs regime ahead.
Mike Gallagher, director of research at Continuum Economics, told Sky’s US partner CNBC that the market action implies equities could fall about 5% from recent highs – or “a bit more”.
“There’s some things coming over the horizon that make you want to take a bit of risk off the table,” he told the channel’s Squawk Box Europe show.
“So, part of it is just natural pocket taking, part of it is thinking, ‘well, is the macro story going to be perfect? No, it’s not.”
He concluded: “To get a major sell-off, you may need major bad news, and that we haven’t actually got to that point yet.”
In the hour after Wall Street opened, the tech company-heavy Nasdaq Composite had dropped nearly 1.8%.
The S&P 500 US index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable, lost more than 1% and the index of 30 major companies listed on US stock exchanges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), dropped 1.3%.