Retail giants face food price hikes dilemma after budget
Two of Britain’s biggest food retailers will this week face pressure to publicly disclose whether they expect a fresh spike in prices next year as the industry grapples with huge tax hikes imposed in last week’s budget.
Sky News understands that Marks & Spencer (M&S), which will unveil half-year earnings on Wednesday, and J Sainsbury, which reports interim results the following day, are collectively facing an additional bill of close to £200m as a result of changes to employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.
Industry sources said the pressure on pricing would be “intense” given the thin margins on which the big supermarkets already operate.
“Food price increases from next April are inevitable,” said one.
The warning comes a day after Ms Reeves told Sky News that “businesses will now have to make a choice, whether they will absorb that through efficiency and productivity gains, whether it will be through lower profits or perhaps through lower wage growth”.
Pointedly, she did not highlight the prospect of higher prices at the tills, with some retailers now weighing whether to explicitly blame the government for impending price increases – a move which will trigger renewed inflation in the UK economy.
The grocery industry is expected to be among the hardest-hit by the changes to employer NICs, particularly after the chancellor slashed the threshold at which businesses become liable for it to just £5,000.
Tens of thousands of people employed part-time in the sector earn between that sum and the current threshold of £9,100.
The first major retailer to report financial results since the budget will be Primark’s parent, Associated British Foods (ABF), on Tuesday.
Insiders downplayed the risks of price hikes from Primark given its track record of absorbing inflationary pressures without passing them on to consumers.
ABF’s additional employer NICs bill is expected to be in the region of £25m, according to one analyst.
Overall, the retail sector could end up paying billions of pounds of additional tax given the scale of its workforce.
Ms Reeves has vowed to raise £25bn extra annually from the changes to employer NICs.
In addition to that, the rise in the national living wage will add a further burden to the financial pressures facing the retail industry.
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Prior to the budget, Stuart Machin, the M&S chief executive, urged the chancellor not to increase taxes on it, calling them “a short-term, easy fix”.
“When I hear about plans to increase national insurance, a tax with no link to profit which hits bigger employers like us and our smaller suppliers, I’m concerned.
“The chancellor was right in the past to call national insurance a tax on workers.”
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Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, will hold talks with British business leaders later on Monday about the impact of the budget.
A number of executives will be given the opportunity to ask questions on a call in which more than 100 companies are expected to be represented, although one boss who is critical of many of the budget measures said they were likely to be prevented from voicing their concerns publicly on the call.
ABF, M&S and Sainsbury’s all declined to comment.
Four people have been arrested by police investigating cyber attacks targeting M&S, Co-op and Harrods.
A 20-year-old woman and two males, both aged 19, and a male aged 17, were detained in London and the West Midlands this morning as part of a National Crime Agency (NCA) operation.
They were arrested at their homes on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences, blackmail, money laundering and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.
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Electronic devices were seized from the suspects and are currently being analysed by forensic experts.
M&S halted online orders, and shelves were empty in shops after the cyber attack on the retailer earlier this year.
The initial hack into the retailer’s systems took place in April through “sophisticated impersonation” involving a third party.
Disruption is expected to continue at the retailer until the end of this month.
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Mickey Carroll in May answered why M&S cyber attack was so bad.
The Co-op and Harrods were also subsequently targeted by hackers.
Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National cybercrime unit described the arrests as a “significant step” in their investigation, which remains “one of the Agency’s highest priorities”.
He added: “…our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”
The National Crime Agency is keen to “signal” to “future victims” the “importance of seeking support and engaging with law enforcement”, stating that “the NCA and policing are here to help”.
The NCA has also thanked M&S, Co-op and Harrods for their support in their investigations.
The arrests, which took place early on Thursday morning, were supported by officers from the West Midlands Regional Organised Crime Unit and the East Midlands Special Operations Unit.
Earlier this week, the chairman of M&S told MPs that the hack had been “traumatic” and like an “out-of-body experience”.
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Archie Norman, however, refused to be drawn on whether the retailer had paid any ransom.
“We are not discussing any of the details of our interaction with the threat actor, including this subject, but that subject is fully shared with the NCA,” he said.
It is estimated that the cyber attack will cost M&S up to £300m this year.
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Days after M&S was attacked, the Co-op was targeted and forced to shut down some internal systems.
Harrods was then hacked, and also had to shut some systems despite its website and shops continuing to operate.
Of those arrested, a 17-year-old British male and a 19-year-old Latvian male were from the West Midlands.
A 19-year-old man was from London and a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire.
Royal Mail is to be allowed to scrap Saturday second-class stamp deliveries, under a series of reforms proposed by the communications regulator.
From 28 July, Royal Mail will also be allowed to deliver second-class letters on alternate weekdays, Ofcom said.
The post will still be delivered within three working days of collection from Monday to Friday.
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The proposals had already been raised by Ofcom after a consultation was announced in 2024, and the scale back was proposed early this year.
Royal Mail had repeatedly failed to meet the so-called universal service obligation to deliver post within set periods of time.
Those delivery targets are now being revised downwards.
Rather than having to have 93% of first-class mail delivered the next day, 90% will be legally allowed.
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The target for second-class mail deliveries will be lowered from 98.5% to arrive within three working days to 95%.
A review of stamp prices has also been announced by Ofcom amid concerns over affordability, with a consultation set to be launched next year.
It’s good news for Royal Mail and its new owner, the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. Ofcom estimates the changes will bring savings of between £250m and £425m.
A welcome change?
Unsurprisingly, the company welcomed the announcement.
“It is good news for customers across the UK as it supports the delivery of a reliable, efficient and financially sustainable universal service,” said Martin Seidenberg, the group chief executive of Royal Mail’s parent company, International Distribution Services.
“It follows extensive consultation with thousands of people and businesses to ensure that the postal service better reflects their needs and the realities of how customers send and receive mail today.”
Citizens Advice, however, doubted whether services would improve as a result of the changes.
“Today, Ofcom missed a major opportunity to bring about meaningful change,” said Tom MacInnes, the director of policy at Citizens Advice.
“Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in the name of savings won’t automatically make letter deliveries more reliable or improve standards.”
Acknowledging long delays “where letters have taken weeks to arrive”, Ofcom said it set Royal Mail new enforceable targets so 99% of mail has to be delivered no more than two days late.
Changing habits
Less than a third of letters are sent now than 20 years ago, and it is forecast to fall to about a fifth of the letters previously sent.
According to Ofcom research, people want reliability and affordability more than speedy delivery.
Royal Mail has been loss-making in recent years as revenues fell.
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In response to Ofcom’s changes, a government spokesperson said: “The public expects a well-run postal service, with letters arriving on time across the country without it costing the earth. With the way people use postal services having changed, it’s right the regulator has looked at this.
“We now need Royal Mail to work with unions and posties to deliver a service that people expect, and this includes maintaining the principle of one price to send a letter anywhere in the UK”.
Ofcom said it has told Royal Mail to hold regular meetings with consumer bodies and industry groups to hear their experiences implementing the changes.
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