Schedule, playoff format, ‘the Jack Eichel issue’: What players are looking for in CBA talks
-
Emily Kaplan, ESPN
As the NHL and NHLPA enter the penultimate season under its collective bargaining agreement, there’s a new tone emanating from both sides: optimism.
For a league that has experienced three lockouts over the last 30 years, it’s a welcome change. The NHL and NHLPA last negotiated a CBA in 2020 — amid the COVID shutdown, when discussions were bundled with return-to-play protocols. Financials were bleak, especially for a sport quite dependent on gate revenue. In an unprecedented climate, both sides collaborated for solutions. Four years later, they all rebounded in a big way. Revenue hit a record $6.2 billion last season, as the league also set new marks in attendance and saw a spike in sponsorship revenue, thanks to evolving attitudes on sports betting, helmet decals and showcasing individual players’ personalities.
In Sportico’s recent valuations, the average NHL franchise is worth $1.79 billion — a 37 percent increase in just one year.
Last month at a Board of Governors’ meeting, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said he’d like to start (and hopefully end) CBA negotiations early, saying “in terms of the relationship, we think we’re in a good place.”
The NHLPA’s new executive director, Marty Walsh, is equally positive these days. “Myself and Gary Bettman have had very open conversations about how this potentially could be laid out,” Walsh told ESPN in a recent interview. “Going in with an open mind, with open dialogue is how I’ve always approached collective bargaining.”
Both sides are motivated to continue momentum. And sources on both sides suggested that if a deal was reached as soon as this spring, there would likely be few changes to the overall structure, just tweaks. But from a player’s perspective, there’s only so often you can ask your boss to re-open your contract and hope to change the terms. So what exactly would they like to achieve?
Walsh agreed to an interview, but declined to speak on specific issues, saying it was premature. Walsh is currently on his annual fall tour – a series of individual union meetings with every team — to canvass players opinions. “Once we assess where we are at and what players feel, we will take next steps after that,” Walsh said.
In the interim, ESPN spoke with 21 veteran players around the NHL to get an early pulse on what issues are important to them. The players were granted anonymity to speak openly. Here is a primer of what topics are on the table and what might be feasible in a new CBA:
The biggest concern for players: Grow the pie
The one item that came up again and again with players was money. “It’s not overly complicated at this point, we need to grow revenue,” one player said. “It’s what all the other sports are doing. We don’t need to be squabbling over points; we need to make the pie larger so we can have a larger slice. This deal has been great for the owners.”
Players cited several examples on how the league’s value has ballooned. Jeff Vinik bought the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2010 for a reported $93 million. Vinik recently sold a majority stake of the team, which is now valued at $1.8 billion, per Sportico. Meanwhile players salaries have largely remained stagnant. Florida Panther star Matthew Tkachuk’s cap hit ($9.5 million) is roughly the same as what his father, Keith Tkachuk, was making in the 1999-2000 season for the St. Louis Blues ($10 million).
The NHL and NHLPA currently have a 50-50 split on hockey-related revenue. The salary cap, which is calculated based on HRR, remained largely stagnant through and directly following the pandemic to account for losses — though the league has hinted at bigger jumps the next several seasons. Players are hoping those jumps are sizable.
“Coming out of COVID was tough, and it felt like we took a lot of compromise to get to where we should be,” one player said. “Now it seems like the league has done well with HRR and hopefully that allows us to see the benefits.”
It’s unclear what economic proposals either side will bring to the table. Players uniformly felt they took a cut when the split went from 57-43 to 50-50 in the 2012 CBA. They have no appetite to decrease further, even if the league tries to argue that in other sports like the NBA or NFL, the players’ share is less than 50%. Several players wondered if the NHL could institute a luxury tax.
“We have some owners who would definitely be willing to spend over the cap,” one player said. “We should reward that. And then that money gets spread across all the owners, and for some of the smaller-market teams it puts money in their pocket.”
Players said they would like to receive a cut of future expansion fees as the league flirts with the idea of 34 teams. “We should fight for that, no doubt,” one player said. But, according to sources, that could be a sticking point for the league.
As usual, many players brought up escrow — in which the league withholds a portion of their salary until revenue is accounted at the end of the season – as something they were passionate about eliminating.
“I think a lot of guys get confused or caught up with escrow, but it’s just a mechanism for getting paid,” one player said. “We need to be focusing on the bigger picture. We want to get rid of escrow. I’m sure the owners want to get rid of guaranteed contracts. We all should be focused on how we can bring more attention and dollars to the sport.”
What could it be? The NHL should get another infusion of cash on the new Canadian TV deal, which will kick in for 2025-26. Players were optimistic about the presence of Amazon, which is dabbling with streaming games in Canada and produced an all-access show, Face Off, which got buy-in from players and the league.
Said one player: “I don’t think there’s a silver bullet, or one thing that will help revenue. But all of our energy should be focused on finding new ways to grow our sport.”
The possible tweaks
Throughout the course of the season, when matters are raised by players or at a general manager’s meeting, the answer can be a common refrain: That’s a CBA issue. So what topics since 2020 do the players feel passionately about revisiting?
-
The schedule: One of the most intriguing topics expected to be discussed is the schedule. Anything could be on the table, from eliminating the three-day Christmas break to reconsidering the way out-of-division games are scheduled. Restructuring the preseason became a hot topic in September after a rash of high-profile injuries including to Drew Doughty, David Reinbacher and Patrik Laine. One idea that has been floated is trimming the preseason in favor of adding two games to the regular season (putting the total at 84). Players surveyed by ESPN had mixed opinions. “There are teams scheduling eight preseason games and that’s too many,” one player said. “Some of them become s—shows, especially when you see rosters some teams put out. Some teams are playing three [games] in three days.” Veteran players acknowledged that while they generally needed only two or three to feel game-ready, the preseason contests are valuable for prospects to get evaluated. “Our preseason is just too long,” one player said. “We’re almost done with camp. Media day in the NBA was two days ago and they finished earlier than us. It’s insane. I’d take 84 games if we could start earlier.” Others were wary of the expense of a longer regular season. “Hockey is a tough contact sport. Playing those two extra games could be the difference between having a guy in the playoffs or losing him,” one player said. “Also the wear and tear on your body. You may not notice it after two games, but it all adds up. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”
-
Playoff format: A handful of players want to change the playoff format to a typical 1-8 seeding by conference. “A lot of guys would like to see that change, myself included,” one player said. But according to sources, there have never been substantive discussions about that at Board of Governor meetings. The league believes the format is strong and the Stanley Cup playoffs are the best postseason in sports. It would have to be a major sticking point for players to get addressed.
-
“The Jack Eichel issue”: In 2021, Eichel was sidelined with a herniated disc in his neck. He wanted to get an artificial disc replacement, a procedure never performed on another NHL player before. The Sabres preferred a more proven alternative. Under the CBA, teams get final say over a player’s medical care. It caused a massive rift, resulting in Eichel’s trade to Vegas, and an issue many assumed would be brought up in the next CBA. Players uniformly said they should get final say over their medical rights. And while there are some that are super passionate, many view Eichel’s situation as a rare occurrence — and not necessarily an easy tweak. One player noted they’ve actually made big strides in this department. “When I first started [11 years ago], it was super taboo to get a second opinion, like you were disobeying your team,” the player said. “Now they’ve made it so much easier, much more common. We’re in a decent place.” At its core, this CBA clause about final say on medical decisions is really about guaranteed contracts, which players do not want to relent on. Several players advocated for full benefits post-retirement. In the CBA, eligible retired players can enroll in the NHL Health and Benefits Fund and, in certain circumstances, receive a subsidy towards the cost. There have been enhancements on this over the years. For example, the offering used to be a one size fits all policy. Now, it’s more scalable. Some players want further assurances, even if it would be a massive cost. “Healthcare is a huge thing,” one player said. “We have one of the best pensions in major sports but we need an answer for health care and get full benefits.”
-
International events: In the past, participation in international events was atop players’ wish list. However with the upcoming 4 Nations Faceoff tournament, commitment (and progress) on scheduling a regular World Cup, and commitment to play in the 2026 Olympics in Milan, players feel they are in a good place. “Feels like the league finally met us on international play. It’s important to players and I think the league also understands its importance for the growth of the sport, even if owners are taking on the risk of a guy getting injured, and dealing with the IOC and IIHF on insurance,” one player said. But for the players it’s still important to get it in writing.
-
Rules and equipment: General managers have given the league feedback at their recent meetings that they would like changes to the long-term injury reserve rules, which has allowed some teams to activate players just as the playoffs begin. While some players had mixed opinions here, none felt super passionately that it needed to be addressed — though they knew the league may bring it up. The NHL also will likely discuss equipment mandates, such as neck guards.
-
Next-gen ideas: Some players said their agents have bugged them about ideas for the next generation, such as changing the draft age to 19, shortening the draft, or finding an out to the Canadian Hockey League and NHL agreement that stipulates teenagers must be returned to their junior clubs if they aren’t on the NHL roster. The NHL and CHL agreement is separate from the CBA. And with a massive sea change coming – the NCAA is considering changing eligibility rules regarding CHL players – it’s tough to predict what is feasible here. But many of the draft-related ideas have not received traction, according to sources.
What’s next in the process?
Walsh and his top lieutenant Ron Hainsey — a defenseman who retired from the league in 2021 — are continuing their fall tour, which is expected to stretch into December. Discussions on the tour will help shape points of emphasis for negotiations with the league. Walsh said he is in no rush.
“It’s really dictated by the players,” Walsh said. “It depends on where we are with the players, what the players want to do. I mean, this is their association. We’ll talk to the entire team and then we follow up with player reps and follow up individual players who are interested in this stuff. Players are everyday people. They’re busy with life and family and everything else. So some players want to get very engaged and some just want to support their teammates.”
If the sides come to a resolution by June, there is nothing that prevents a new CBA from going into effect before the prior one is completed. So if both parties agree, the new CBA could theoretically begin as soon as next season.
Walsh was hired in February, 2023 after an exhaustive search. He was the longtime mayor of Boston before serving as the U.S. Secretary of Labor. Players on the search committee said they liked Walsh’s political background — his ability to communicate, form relationships and garner support. He’s remained accessible, giving all 750-plus members of the union his cellphone number.
“I think guys are feeling really confident being led by Marty,” one player rep said. “He has good energy, a good feel for the CBA, the league and also how to develop relationships with Gary [Bettman] and work with the league. We know issues are going to come up, but we feel like he’ll get them resolved.”
One question several players wondered: Who will exercise their voice and help in the fight? The NHL’s new marketing campaign is all about Gen Z as Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Connor Bedard become the new faces of the league. In the past, Sidney Crosby has been very opinionated on league issues behind the scenes, then goes through proper channels.
“Other sports that are seeing a lot of success are driven by their stars, and that’s where we want to be,” one player said. “Patrick Mahomes, LeBron James, they’re at the forefront of league issues. That matters.”
Walsh said it was too early to identify which players might be the spokespeople for the union. “Depends on how negotiations are going,” he said.
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024