US election: Who’s winning so far – and when will we know for sure?

Published

10 hours ago

November 6, 2024

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Donald Trump is projected to have won the first two of the seven swing states to be declared – narrowing Kamala Harris’s routes to the White House.

Trump and Harris both need to hit the magic 270 Electoral College votes to become the next US president.

Trump wins are projected in they key battlegrounds of North Carolina and Georgia.

Losing there could indicate that any route for Kamala Harris has to go through the “blue wall” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are all tight battlegrounds.

Votes are still being counted, and counting is generally more complicated in the US than in the UK, largely due to the country’s sheer size; the varying time differences alone make for a longer process.

Polls began closing at 11pm UK time and the last of them closed at 4am UK time.

In many past elections, it’s at around this time that a winner has been declared.

Election latest: Live updates as results come in

But US election results can take days – or even weeks.

Even with Donald Trump ahead in early battleground voting, factors like high turnout and voting by post can mean leads later change hands in crucial states.

Before we get into those factors in detail, you need to know how a winner is declared.

How calling the election works

When a winner is declared, whether it’s hours or days from now, it will initially be a “projected” winner.

It’s projected because the official results are typically only confirmed by state officials after 7-30 days, depending on the state.

Sky News has access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

Big voter turnout

There are some 240 million people eligible to vote in the US.

And if voter turnout is particularly high, it means vote counting will take longer than usual.

This was the case in 2020, when a record 158.5 million people voted – the highest turnout since 1900.

It isn’t yet known how many voters have visited the polls on election day, but more than 77 million Americans had already cast their votes by Monday, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab – 42,195,018 returned in person and 35,173,674 by mail.

In the 2020 presidential election, it took four days for Mr Biden to be called the winner, but that wasn’t just put down to the turnout.

Many also said it was because more people – around 100 million – voted by post than usual due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and those votes took longer to count.

Election officials have been optimistic that the 2024 vote count will be smoother without the many challenges the pandemic posed to officials in 2020, according to NBC News.

Tight race will lead to a longer wait

For months, polls have suggested this will be an incredibly tight election – particularly in a few battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It’s been so tight that most experts have refused to predict the outcome – and exit polls have done little to separate the candidates.

But you’ll have seen overnight that Ms Harris and Mr Trump were projected winners in certain states early on after polls closed.

These are states where votes are so clearly leaning in one direction as they get counted that there is too much ground for the trailing candidate to make up.

In those swing states, however, voting is going to be far closer, and a winner will not be projected until the NBC News decision desk is certain of an outcome.

That could mean waiting until practically all the votes in some of the states are in to project a winner – which could take days.

Key terms to listen out for as the count progresses

There are a number of key stages between now and reaching a projected winner, NBC News says. Listen out for these calls:

Too early to call: This can mean two things: there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, not enough to meet NBC’s statistical standards to project the race; or there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
Too close to call: This means the final margin between the candidates will be less than five percentage points. NBC News’ decision desk will not use this characterisation until it has statistical confidence that the race will be this close.
Leaning: This status is introduced when the decision desk is confident that the candidate who is ahead is going to win, but the statistical threshold for calling the race has not yet been met.
Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win.

How long has it taken in the past?

It’s common in the US for it to take a couple of days to know who the next president will be.

The 2020 election’s four day wait was an anomaly, but it paled in comparison to the 2000 election, when it took weeks.

Florida and its 25 Electoral College votes (it now has 30) were set to decide the contest between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush, whose brother was Florida governor.

On election night on 7 November, TV networks called the state for Gore before polls had closed everywhere in the state. Later that evening, they reversed their stance and said it was too close to call, then called it for Bush and then returned to “too close to call”.

A preliminary vote tally the day after the election had Bush ahead by around 1,700 votes in Florida – so close that state laws triggered an automatic machine recount. The first recount winnowed Bush’s lead down to just 317 votes.

The issue was around Florida’s punch-hole ballots and hanging chads – punched holes that might still have a corner intact – and how these were counted.

A legal battle ensued that went right up to the US Supreme Court, which in a 5-4 decision along ideological lines ruled that any solution to the recount issue could not be put in place by the deadline, thus handing the state to Bush.

What happens after a winner is declared?

Whether a winner is declared on the night or in the following days, they aren’t officially elected until the electoral votes are formally cast and counted.

Electors cast them on 17 December, they are counted and certified by Congress on 6 January and then the new president will take office after being inaugurated on 20 January.

Unlike the general election in the UK, there is a transition period between the election result and the new president taking over.

During the gap, Mr Biden will continue as president, with the election winner known as the president-elect until the transfer of power in January.

US

Donald Trump wins US election in monumental political comeback

Published

1 hour ago

November 6, 2024

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Donald Trump wins US election in monumental political comeback

Donald Trump will return to the White House after claiming a stunning US election victory over Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

Mr Trump, who previously served as president between 2017 and 2021, picked up his first swing state after he was declared the winner of North Carolina.

Around an hour later he was declared the winner of Georgia – taking back the state he narrowly lost to Joe Biden in 2020.

He was projected as the winner of Pennsylvania shortly afterwards – touted as the most pivotal of the seven battleground states.

Mr Trump’s victory was confirmed when he surpassed 270 electoral college votes by winning the state of Wisconsin, and he remains on course to claim all seven swing states.

Follow live updates: Trump wins US election

Ms Harris’ aides had earlier said she wouldn’t speak until later on Wednesday as her path to victory narrowed and defeat seemed certain.

The lectern where her supporters hoped she would be delivering a historic victory speech at Howard University in Washington DC was instead seen protected with rain covers.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump headed to Palm Beach in Florida to declare victory to a crowd of his supporters hours before the election result was confirmed.

Mr Trump told his supporters: “We’re going to help our country heal.

“We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country and we’ve made history for a reason tonight.”

During a speech where he doubled down on his promise to crack down on illegal immigration, Mr Trump promised those who gathered a “golden age of America”.

He added: “This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to ‘make America great again’.”

The president-elect briefly paused his speech as the crowd chanted “USA, USA, USA!”.

Mr Trump continued: “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. We have taken back control of the Senate. Wow.

“Wow. That’s great.”

He added that the Senate races in Montana, Nevada, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were “all won by the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement”.

Read analysis:
Trump 2.0: Power beyond his wildest imagination
Harris’ team will be searching for answers
What Trump’s win means for the UK

Mr Trump then invited his running mate JD Vance to speak, with the incoming vice president saying: “I think that we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America.

“And under President Trump’s leadership, we’re never going to stop fighting for you, for your dreams, for the future of your children.

“And after the greatest political comeback in American history, we’re going to lead the greatest economic comeback in American history.”

Once the vote counting was under way, three Trump campaign officials told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News that the mood at his Mar-a-Lago resort was moving away from “cautious optimism” towards “optimism”.

Republicans have also taken control of the Senate from the Democrats.

Zelenskyy and Netanyahu congratulate Trump

World leaders began to congratulate Mr Trump before his victory had even been confirmed, with the election result set to have a sweeping impact on global politics.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Congratulations President-elect Trump on your historic election victory. I look forward to working with you in the years ahead… I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he looked forward to an “era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership”.

He added: “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Mr Trump on “history’s greatest comeback!”, while senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said that the incoming president will be tested on his statements that he can stop the war in Gaza within hours.

It came as European Commission Ursula von der Leyen says she “warmly” congratulated Mr Trump, while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he is looking forward to working with him to “advance peace through strength”.

Disappointment for Harris

The race initially appeared neck and neck as Americans went to the polls, but Mr Trump pulled ahead as result predictions came in from solidly red states including Florida, Texas and Alabama throughout the night.

Ms Harris’s support came from her party’s strongholds on the east and west coasts in states like New York, Delaware, and California.

While Mr Trump prepared to address his supporters in Palm Beach, the crowd at Ms Harris’s watch party at Howard University in Washington DC began to file out after midnight on Wednesday.

Ms Harris did not speak at the party. Cedric Richmond, co-chairman of the Harris campaign, spoke instead, telling the crowd there were still votes to count and states to be called.

“We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted. That every voice has spoken,” he said. “So you won’t hear from the vice president tonight, but you will hear from her tomorrow. She will be back here tomorrow.”

US

What a Trump presidency means for global wars and European security

Published

1 hour ago

November 6, 2024

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What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security

Donald Trump said he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine if he returned to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency will immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

US election latest: World leaders congratulate Trump after historic win

Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

Prior to the Republican’s win, hostile and friendly capitals around the world were gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The president-elect has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of Mr Trump’s victory will be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

In the run-up to the election, the then-nominee repeatedly claimed he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris made clear that she viewed continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoed the view of her NATO partners.

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While US support for Ukraine will undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The president-elect – who portrayed himself as the ultimate dealmaker and adopted a new election slogan, “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

During his first term, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

But with the right advice, might the returning President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the likely impact of the second Trump term.

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

He has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that will surely only heighten tensions with Iran during the second Trump term.

US

Donald Trump declares victory in presidential election as he addresses supporters

Published

4 hours ago

November 6, 2024

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Donald Trump declares victory in presidential election as he addresses supporters

Donald Trump has declared victory in the US election as he addressed jubilant supporters in Florida – but votes in key states are still being counted.

Speaking at West Palm Beach, he told crowds: “Look what happened – is this crazy?” – adding: “I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president.

“I will fight for you and your family and your future, every single day I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body.”

He told the crowd it was a “magnificent victory for the American people” while claiming he had also won the popular vote, something he failed to secure during his 2016 and 2020 presidential bids.

“Winning the popular vote was very nice, it’s a great feeling of love,” he said.

The 78-year-old also told his supporters that “this will truly be the golden age of America”.

Mr Trump has won in the key battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – and is leading in several others – narrowing Kamala Harris’s path to victory significantly.

According to Sky News’s US partner network NBC, Mr Trump, who has been bidding for a second term in the White House following his win in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, is now just four electoral votes away from a projected win.

While the Republican Party’s win of the Senate has been confirmed, the House is still up for grabs.

“We overcame obstacles that no one thought possible,” Mr Trump said as family, including “my beautiful wife Melania” and his “amazing” children, stood next to him.

“We’re going to help our country heal, we have a country that needs help and it needs help very badly,” he said while doubling down on his promise to crack down on illegal immigration.

Mr Trump then seemed to refer to an attempted assassination on him at a rally in Pennsylvania back in July as he said: “Many people have told me that god has spared my life for a reason and that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness and now we are going to fulfill that mission together.”

US election latest: Trump projected key wins

Ms Harris will now not address her supporters until later on Wednesday, her campaign chair has said.

The vice president had been scheduled to make a speech at her alma mater, Howard University, after the polls closed, but the mood grew sombre as results began to trickle in.

Cedric Richmond, co-chair of the Harris campaign, told the crowds at the university: “We will continue overnight to fight to make sure, every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.

“So you won’t hear from the vice president tonight but you will hear from her tomorrow. She will be back here tomorrow.”

The Howard community had been preparing for a historic night – Ms Harris would become the first woman, black woman and South Asian American to assume the presidency, if elected.

But in the 21 remaining states where more than 80% of the vote has been counted, there has been a swing towards Mr Trump, NBC News reports.

In seven of them, the swing is less than one point.

The largest swings – of more than five points – are in New Jersey and Florida.

No other state has a swing higher than three points.

World reacts to looming Trump victory

World leaders have started reacting to Mr Trump’s speech, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tweeting: “Congratulations president-elect Trump on your historic election victory.

“I look forward to working with you in the years ahead,” he said.

“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder-to-shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

“From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and a longtime supporter of Mr Trump, tweeted: “He’s done it again. The most incredible political comeback of our lifetime.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will have been closely watching the election as he seeks continued support from the US over his war against the Hamas militant group in Gaza, said on X: “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, another leader who has been counting on renewed US support as he seeks to fend of Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country, also congratulated Mr Trump over his looming victory, which he described as “impressive”.

Mr Zelenskyy said on X he appreciated Mr Trump’s “commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach” to global affairs and the principle could “bring just peace in Ukraine closer”.