What a Trump presidency means for global wars and European security
Donald Trump said he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine if he returned to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.
Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency will immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.
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Mr Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP
Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.
Prior to the Republican’s win, hostile and friendly capitals around the world were gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.
Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.
The president-elect has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.
During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.
But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.
Mr Trump met Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September. Pic: Reuters
In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of Mr Trump’s victory will be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.
In the run-up to the election, the then-nominee repeatedly claimed he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.
In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.
Pic: Reuters
Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.
Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.
By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris made clear that she viewed continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoed the view of her NATO partners.
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While US support for Ukraine will undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.
The president-elect – who portrayed himself as the ultimate dealmaker and adopted a new election slogan, “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.
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Putin and Iran
His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.
During his first term, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.
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But with the right advice, might the returning President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?
At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the likely impact of the second Trump term.
Mr Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m US president, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters
On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.
He has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.
His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.
It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that will surely only heighten tensions with Iran during the second Trump term.
There are 161 people still missing in Texas in the aftermath of last weekend’s deadly flash floods, the state’s governor has said.
Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, governor Gregg Abbot said the number of missing had risen markedly.
He said among the missing were five children and one counsellor from Camp Mystic – where at least 27 people were killed in the flash flooding.
At least 109 people are confirmed to have died in the floods, which took place on the 4 July weekend, but this figure has been steadily climbing ever since.
People comforted each other in Kerville. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
The bulk of deaths, and the main search for additional bodies, have been concentrated in Kerr County and the city of Kerrville.
The area was transformed into a disaster zone when torrential rains struck the region early last Friday, unleashing deadly flooding along the Guadalupe River.
Travis County, Kendall County, Burnett County, Williamson County, and Tom Green County were also hit.
Mr Abbot said many of those who were unaccounted for were in the Texas Hill Country area, but had not registered at a camp or hotel, posing further challenges for authorities.
Camp Mystic
Mr Abbot planned to make another visit to Camp Mystic.
The century-old all-girls Christian summer camp was badly hit by the flash floods, with at least 27 campers and counsellors dying.
Hanna Lawrence, left, and Rebecca Lawrence, right. Pic: John Lawrence/AP
Lila Bonner (L) and Eloise Peck both died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
Chloe Childress. Pic: Debra Alexander Photography via AP
Some of the victims include Hanna and Rebecca Lawrence, both eight, Chloe Childress, 19, who was among the counsellors at Camp Mystic when the flood hit, and Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine.
There were scenes of devastation at the camp as the flood water receded.
Outside the cabins where the girls had slept, mud-splattered blankets and pillows were scattered.
Also in the debris were pink, purple and light blue luggage, decorated with stickers.
A view inside a cabin at Camp Mystic after the flooding. Pic: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
Camper’s belongings lie on the ground following flooding on the Guadalupe River, at Camp Mystic.
Pic: Reuters
‘Everything looked flooded and broken’
One of the campers, 10-year-old Lucy Kennedy, told Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, that she woke up to the sound of thunder at around midnight before the floods struck.
“I couldn’t go back to sleep,” she said. “I just had a feeling that something really bad was about to happen.”
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She said the girls at the camp were told to grab blankets, pillows and water bottles and line up single file as the floodwater rose, before getting airlifted to safety.
Wynne Kennedy, Lucy’s mother, added: “When I saw her, she was wrapped up in a blanket, had a teddy bear.
“We just held each other tight, and I held her all night.”
Their home in Kerrville was also destroyed by the flash floods.
Lucy Kennedy, 10 who was rescued from Camp Mystic, and her mother Wynne. Pic: NBC
Political row
Meanwhile, a political row has unfolded parallel to the recovery efforts, with some questioning whether local authorities sent out warnings and alerts early enough.
Similarly, Democrats have criticised Donald Trump over cuts his Elon Musk-launched Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has made to the National Weather Service – but it isn’t clear whether these actually made any difference.
Read more:
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Wall of water
The flash floods erupted before daybreak on Friday, after massive amounts of rainfall caused the Guadalupe River to rise by eight metres in less than an hour.
The wall of water overwhelmed cabins, tents and trails along the river’s edge.
Some survivors were found clinging to trees.
Some of the campers had to swim out of their cabin windows to get to safety, while others clung to rope to make it to higher ground.
The date for Sean “Diddy” Combs’s sentencing hearing has been confirmed.
Following his high-profile trial, the hip-hop mogul was found guilty of two counts of transportation for prostitution by jurors in Manhattan, New York, last week – but was cleared of sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.
Defence lawyers argued Combs, who has been in prison in Brooklyn since his arrest in September last year, should be bailed ahead of sentencing given the not guilty verdicts for the more serious charges, but Judge Arun Subramanian denied this – citing, among other things, the rapper’s own admissions of previous violent behaviour.
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs in court after the verdict was delivered. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg
The charges of sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy carried a potential life sentence. Combs still faces up to 20 years in prison for the prostitution-related offences, but is not expected to receive the maximum punishment.
After the verdict was delivered, the judge scheduled the sentencing hearing for 3 October. At a remote follow-up conference on Tuesday, with agreement from the defence and prosecution, the judge approved the date.
Combs joined the call but did not make any comment.
Any sentence will include credit for time already served – which will be just over a year by the time the hearing takes place.
During his trial, Combs was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura.
Jurors found the allegations did not amount to sex-trafficking or racketeering, or running a criminal enterprise – but they did find him guilty of transporting Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane” for prostitution offences around the US, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.
Despite the guilty verdict on those charges, the 55-year-old’s team described it as “the victory of all victories”.
Read more:
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In an interview over the weekend, defence lawyer Marc Agnifilo said Combs had received a standing ovation from fellow inmates when he returned to jail after being acquitted of the more serious charges.
“They all said, ‘We never get to see anyone who beats the government’,” he said.
Ahead of sentencing, Combs’s lawyers will file their recommendations by 19 September, with prosecutors likely to follow a week later.
Prosecutors previously said the rapper could face about four to five years in prison under federal sentencing guidelines, while the defence has suggested a two-year sentence.
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