Donald Trump said he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine if he returned to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency will immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

US election latest: World leaders congratulate Trump after historic win

Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

Prior to the Republican’s win, hostile and friendly capitals around the world were gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The president-elect has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of Mr Trump’s victory will be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

In the run-up to the election, the then-nominee repeatedly claimed he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris made clear that she viewed continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoed the view of her NATO partners.

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While US support for Ukraine will undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The president-elect – who portrayed himself as the ultimate dealmaker and adopted a new election slogan, “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

During his first term, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

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But with the right advice, might the returning President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the likely impact of the second Trump term.

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

He has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that will surely only heighten tensions with Iran during the second Trump term.

Donald Trump has declared victory in the US election as he addressed jubilant supporters in Florida – but votes in key states are still being counted.

Speaking at West Palm Beach, he told crowds: “Look what happened – is this crazy?” – adding: “I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president.

“I will fight for you and your family and your future, every single day I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body.”

He told the crowd it was a “magnificent victory for the American people” while claiming he had also won the popular vote, something he failed to secure during his 2016 and 2020 presidential bids.

“Winning the popular vote was very nice, it’s a great feeling of love,” he said.

The 78-year-old also told his supporters that “this will truly be the golden age of America”.

Mr Trump has won in the key battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – and is leading in several others – narrowing Kamala Harris’s path to victory significantly.

According to Sky News’s US partner network NBC, Mr Trump, who has been bidding for a second term in the White House following his win in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, is now just four electoral votes away from a projected win.

While the Republican Party’s win of the Senate has been confirmed, the House is still up for grabs.

“We overcame obstacles that no one thought possible,” Mr Trump said as family, including “my beautiful wife Melania” and his “amazing” children, stood next to him.

“We’re going to help our country heal, we have a country that needs help and it needs help very badly,” he said while doubling down on his promise to crack down on illegal immigration.

Mr Trump then seemed to refer to an attempted assassination on him at a rally in Pennsylvania back in July as he said: “Many people have told me that god has spared my life for a reason and that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness and now we are going to fulfill that mission together.”

US election latest: Trump projected key wins

Ms Harris will now not address her supporters until later on Wednesday, her campaign chair has said.

The vice president had been scheduled to make a speech at her alma mater, Howard University, after the polls closed, but the mood grew sombre as results began to trickle in.

Cedric Richmond, co-chair of the Harris campaign, told the crowds at the university: “We will continue overnight to fight to make sure, every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.

“So you won’t hear from the vice president tonight but you will hear from her tomorrow. She will be back here tomorrow.”

The Howard community had been preparing for a historic night – Ms Harris would become the first woman, black woman and South Asian American to assume the presidency, if elected.

But in the 21 remaining states where more than 80% of the vote has been counted, there has been a swing towards Mr Trump, NBC News reports.

In seven of them, the swing is less than one point.

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The largest swings – of more than five points – are in New Jersey and Florida.

No other state has a swing higher than three points.

World reacts to looming Trump victory

World leaders have started reacting to Mr Trump’s speech, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tweeting: “Congratulations president-elect Trump on your historic election victory.

“I look forward to working with you in the years ahead,” he said.

“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder-to-shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

“From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and a longtime supporter of Mr Trump, tweeted: “He’s done it again. The most incredible political comeback of our lifetime.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will have been closely watching the election as he seeks continued support from the US over his war against the Hamas militant group in Gaza, said on X: “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, another leader who has been counting on renewed US support as he seeks to fend of Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country, also congratulated Mr Trump over his looming victory, which he described as “impressive”.

Mr Zelenskyy said on X he appreciated Mr Trump’s “commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach” to global affairs and the principle could “bring just peace in Ukraine closer”.

Votes are still being counted in the US election, meaning the race is not yet won – but Donald Trump is just a handful of electoral votes from victory.

Overnight developments have thrilled Republicans, with Mr Trump going well ahead in the race for the magic number of 270 electoral college votes to win.

While the fight isn’t officially over yet for Kamala Harris – her opponent no longer needs the four remaining key battleground states to win, and he’s already claimed victory.

Here’s the story of the night…

Trump wins first three swing states

North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania – three of seven critical battleground states – have been called in favour of Donald Trump by Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.

North Carolina was the first battleground win of the election, giving Mr Trump the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, which he also narrowly won in 2020 with 49.9% of the vote, while Joe Biden garnered 48.6%.

It may not be a massive surprise, as North Carolina hasn’t swung to a Democrat for president since 2008, but it is still a significant blow for Ms Harris, who had been eyeing the state as a place to expand her path to 270.

Republican running mate JD Vance admitted before the vote it would be “very hard” for Mr Trump to win if their campaign did not hold North Carolina.

Both candidates have made frequent trips to the battleground in the final weeks of the race.

But perhaps an even bigger loss for Team Harris was Georgia, which Mr Trump was projected to win at about 5.30am UK time.

Numbers had shown Mr Trump was well ahead earlier this morning, but Democrats were holding out hope because he had been 200,000 votes ahead at the same stage of the 2020 election and still lost.

In 2020 it had proved a false lead because votes in the state’s four largest counties – Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb – which normally lean Democrat – had not been counted.

Once they were, Joe Biden came from behind to win the state.

Those same counties took the longest to count this time too, but Ms Harris couldn’t make up the ground in them.

Then at around 7am NBC News projected that Mr Trump would win Pennsylvania.

The state is seen as the key to victory in the election as it holds a crucial 19 electoral college votes.

Pennsylvania has been a heavy focus of the Republican and Democrat campaigns, with both camps spending huge amounts of money and time vying to win the state.

Trump’s victory there means he only needs to win the states he’s widely expected to win – he doesn’t need any more battleground states.

Florida goes to Trump

Sky News’ US partner NBC News projected Donald Trump as the winner in Florida at 1am UK time.

The Republican-leaning state has a massive 30 electoral votes, the third largest number behind California (54) and Texas (40).

Florida, which is Mr Trump’s home state, was once considered a swing state but has been reliably Republican for over a decade.

The last time Floridians went for a Democratic presidential candidate was when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by less than a percentage point in 2012.

New York Times needle is back

There was talk that the popular New York Times ‘needle’ may not have been available on election night due to strike action that nearly ran into polling day.

The Tech Guild, which represents the Times’s software developers and data analysts, went on strike on Sunday over contracts, pay and in-office working policies.

But the needle was up and running on election night, predicting a comfortable win for Donald Trump.

The needle is part of the New York Times’s election coverage brought to readers by 100 journalists, engineers, statisticians, data experts and researchers.

It “estimates the final outcome based on partial election results, helping readers understand what to make of the vote that has been counted so far”, the New York Times says.

You can read exactly how the needle works, and see it for yourself, on the New York Times’ website.

Republicans projected to win the Senate

NBC News projects the Republicans will take over control of the Senate from the Democrats.

It is forecast the party will win 51 seats to the Democrats’ 40.

The House, currently held by the Republicans, is still up in the air.

If Donald Trump were to win, having control of the Senate and the House would enable him to govern more freely than if these legislatures were split.

Crowds leave Harris event

Crowds were leaving Kamala Harris’s watch party in Washington DC at around midnight local time as news of Mr Trump’s projected swing state victories came in.

Supporters had hoped she would be delivering a historic victory speech there, but she didn’t show up at all in the end.

One of the supporters who attended, Anna Aurilio, told Sky News: “I’m heading home for a stiff drink but I’m a sport fan so I know it’s not over until it’s over.”

Another, Ellycia Smalley, said: “I’m a little down, obviously, but I’m not giving up hope, there are still big cities in swing states to be counted.

“It’s not over until the fat lady sings.”

That was before Pennsylvania was projected to go Mr Trump’s way.

One of her campaign chairs said she will be there tomorrow to “address the nation”.

Trump declares victory with 266 electoral college votes

Donald Trump took to the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, with a huge entourage.

“I want to thank you all very much,” he said, praising the “incredible” MAGA movement.

“Frankly I believe this was the greatest political movement of all time,” he says, adding it’s now going to go to another level.

“We have a country that needs help very badly,” he adds, promising to “fix everything”.

“It’s clear that… this is a political victory,” he adds.

“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” he says, effectively claiming victory.

“This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”