‘Holy cow. What’s going on in Utah?’ Inside the Hockey Club’s plan for long-term success
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
SALT LAKE CITY — There are two versions of Ryan Smith. There’s the public-facing 40-something billionaire tech mogul who answers questions in a way that can be direct, earnest and open to admitting he might not have the right answer … or an answer at all.
That’s the version most people see. But there’s also another version of Smith that’s unapologetically Utahn. That version comes out in the way he talks about Salt Lake City, the state of Utah and the preconceived beliefs many people have about a place that they’ve likely never visited.
While the first version of Smith is the reason the Utah Hockey Club exists, it’s the second version that is hell-bent on ensuring that the franchise is going to thrive in the most Utah way possible.
“I put everything in Utah. They said we couldn’t build tech here, and we’d have to move to the Bay Area,” Smith said. “We couldn’t get venture funding here. We couldn’t IPO a company from here. We couldn’t sell. We proved every single person wrong.
“Then I think that people started believing, ‘Holy cow. What’s going on in Utah?’ That’s incredibly gratifying when you’re fighting for a bigger cause.”
This is the mission facing the Utah Hockey Club when it comes to achieving success long term. While the UHC is a new venture, the team relocated from Arizona where they were the Coyotes. Before that, they were the original Winnipeg Jets, relocating to the desert in 1996.
The club is trying to prove that Salt Lake City and Utah as a whole can support the NHL. It’s trying to prove that it can make hockey a staple, just like the Utah Jazz have been doing in the NBA for several decades.
Perhaps the most important point the Utah Hockey Club could make is that as Salt Lake City keeps growing, so could the city’s professional sports landscape.
“Utahns especially want to show they are more than a flyover state,” said Josh Furlong, a broadcaster and the sports director for KSL. “They recognize they are not going to be Los Angeles, Seattle or New York. They want to showcase what Utah has to offer. You have a rabid fan base that will support your team. I think you have a bunch of people who want to showcase that. I don’t know if it is some type of FOMO situation where they feel like they’re not being included. But they want to be in that mix among the best places.
“You want people to feel what you see. You have this beautiful landscape, friendly people and a great atmosphere for sports culture.”
1:27
Clayton Keller: Today was a great day for Utah Hockey Club
Utah Hockey Club’s captain Clayton Keller joins “SportsCenter” to discuss what the team’s NHL debut felt like following a 5-2 win over the Blackhawks.
“Utah! Getting bigger and better. Utah! Always leading the way. New technology is here. Growing faster each year. This is the place!”
Those are lyrics from “Utah … This Is The Place.” Written in 1996, it later became the state song in 2003. At the time of the song’s creation, Utah was on the verge of announcing itself to more of the world, using sports and entertainment as a mechanism.
The Jazz reached three straight Western Conference finals from 1996 through 1998, with two NBA Finals appearances. Salt Lake City received international exposure during the 2002 Winter Olympic Games. In 2005, the University of Utah was the first school to have the No. 1 picks in both the NBA and NFL drafts in the same year, with Andrew Bogut and Alex Smith. The state’s fortune was also extended to film in 2004 when a few graduates of BYU’s film school made the coming of age cult classic “Napoleon Dynamite.”
Decades later, it appears Utah could once again be following a similar path, but with more to gain.
Utah Hockey Club president of hockey operations Chris Armstrong didn’t quote the lyrics from the state song when asked about the future. But his words resemble a similar sentiment when he mentions Utah having the nation’s No. 3 economy and the youngest state based on median age (30.7 years old).
“It’s a unique moment in time where we’re building something new from the ground up and we get to do it with everybody here,” Armstrong said. “So that is why we see a successful and thriving future. It’s only continuing to grow that outpaces most cities in North America, and we think that’s a great opportunity for a new sports franchise.”
The history of sports fandom in Utah began with major college programs BYU and the University of Utah establishing athletic programs. Smaller schools such as Southern Utah, Utah State, Utah Valley and Weber State have also built followings in various sports.
Professional sports came on the scene in 1979 when the Jazz relocated from New Orleans and eventually became one of the NBA’s most successful franchises throughout the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s.
MLS came to the area in 2004 with Real Salt Lake, which averages 20,291 fans per game, and extends to the Utah Royals of the NWSL, a team that was revived in 2024. The Royals’ first game drew 20,370 fans which set a state record for the most fans at a women’s sporting event.
Both RSL and the Royals are owned by Smith, a BYU graduate, along with Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils managing partner David Blitzer.
In 2034, Salt Lake City will join Athens, Beijing, London, Los Angeles and Paris as one of the few cities to host multiple Olympics when the Winter Games return.
“Utah is crazy for sports,” said Eric Schulz, a senior lecturer in marketing and strategy at Utah State. “I think it will probably be the same pattern that Denver had. Denver just had the Nuggets and the Broncos for a long time. Then the Rockies came to town and then the Avalanche came to town. There’s been a lot of growth in Utah over the last 20 years with people who have come from other parts of the country. Look at Las Vegas. Who thought a hockey team in Las Vegas would do so well?”
Armstrong said the Utah Hockey Club received more than 30,000 season-ticket deposits. It’s a similar figure to that of the Seattle Kraken when they garnered more than 32,000 deposits ahead of their first season.
Armstrong also said that the franchise “feels very confident” in that it could finish this season as both a top-20 revenue team and a top-20 ticketing team in the NHL despite playing in at a basketball-first venue that has around 5,000 obstructed view seats.
“I don’t know too much about what the perception is, but I can tell you that on the ground that all you see is growth around you,” Armstrong said. “I think the culture of hockey lends itself to the community of Greater Salt Lake and of Utah. Hard-working, honest, passion, camaraderie, pride in team, pride in state. … I think that speaks to the response that we’ve received with season-ticket deposits.”
THERE WILL BE challenges along the way.
Those Jazz teams with Karl Malone and John Stockton created a generational fandom that has played a role in why the Jazz still continue to be such a massive draw.
Harnessing that fandom became an instant priority for the Utah Hockey Club. Exactly a week after the Coyotes’ last regular season game, the team was flown to Salt Lake City, where they were greeted by 12,000 fans at the Delta Center.
In the offseason, the club organized an online poll encouraging fans to vote on its future team name. In June, the SEG announced 520,000 fans had participated, before narrowing it down to six potential options.
Chris Barney, the Smith Entertainment Group’s president of revenue and commercial strategy, said the club will market to everyone. But they’re concentrating on attracting young people so that they can grow those generational fans.
Part of that plan is creating a youth hockey program. Many of the NHL’s teams playing in nontraditional markets — especially Western Conference teams — have used these programs over the past 30 years. The short-term goal is to drive new, young fans to the sport. The long-term goal is to make the youth of today the season-ticket holders of tomorrow.
What makes the Utah Hockey Club’s plan different is their connection to the Jazz. The Junior Jazz is the NBA’s largest youth basketball program, with more than 60,000 members spread across Utah, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Nevada and Idaho.
Barney, who grew up playing in the Junior Jazz, said that the Jazz designate 1,800 tickets every home game for program participants.
“Our goal is to develop a youth hockey program in which there’s an Auston Matthews playing somewhere in the NHL [in the future] that’s a product of Salt Lake City with the infrastructure that we have built,” Barney said. “That might be one of the most important things. It’s not right in front of our face, but we have a five-year strategic plan. Developing and building it out is darn near the top.”
Barney explained that there are county recreation departments that are incubators for youth who end up playing sports in the community. With SEG already having those relationships in place through the Junior Jazz, they hope to do the same with the Utah Hockey Club when it comes time to introduce ice hockey and street hockey throughout the community.
The most recent USA Hockey membership numbers show that Utah had a combined 4,869 players between males and females. Of those 4,869 registered players, there were 3,168 who were younger than 18, while 2,073 were under 14. In 2016-17 — the final period before the Golden Knights arrived — the state of Nevada had 1,699 combined registered players. In 2023-24, there were a combined 5,560 male and female players, with 2,861 of them being 18 and younger.
“We’re all in,” Barney said. “We’re not going to dip our toe in. We’re all in.”
ANOTHER CHALLENGE IN building a fan base is that while Salt Lake City and Utah as a whole are growing, growth does not come cheap, which sets up a dichotomy that exists for many franchises in 2024.
“Utah has a ton of rising costs. Especially in real estate,” Furlong said. “There is a real pain point here with things being overpriced, and the housing market being really tough. Utahns love to get things for free or for cheap. The cheaper you make it, the better it is going to be. That said, you have someone like Ryan Smith who is trying to appeal to other people in the tech world who have limitless amounts of cash.
“The general fan wants it to be as cheap as possible because there are other factors, but tech people want to showcase this as a premier destination.”
Chris Hartweg is the publisher and CEO of the Team Marketing Report, which produces the Fan Cost Index, a model that calculates what the cost would be for a family of four to attend a sporting event.
Hartweg said recent history shows that new teams — whether they be expansion or relocation — were more expensive than the league average when they debuted. He said that the Nashville Predators (1998-99), Columbus Blue Jackets (2000-01) and Minnesota Wild (2000-01) were all within 3% above the league average ticket prices in their first season. Those are the outliers in recent NHL history.
The Atlanta Thrashers (1999-2000) were 34% above league average. The Vegas Golden Knights (2017-18) were 30% higher, while the Seattle Kraken (2021-22) were 58% higher.
“With dynamic pricing, (teams) know where all the price points are,” Hartweg said. “They know they want to move this many more season tickets if they go to this level. They know going in what’s the most that they could get before diminishing returns. That’s business. It happened in Seattle.”
Hartweg pointed out that the Kraken lowered their prices for the second season, but were able to charge a hefty premium for two main reasons that could also apply to the Utah Hockey Club: a new team, and a new venue.
Hartweg said it’s possible that UHC’s fans could be in store for a pricey first season, with the possibility of an uptick in prices once the Delta Center renovation project is completed in 2027.
Then there’s the role of the secondary market. Hartweg said the average family looking to go to a game might purchase tickets on the secondary market, and they might not know where to find the strongest deals.
Utah’s upcoming three-game home stand against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Vegas Golden Knights and the Washington Capitals offers a wide range of price points for the cheapest available ticket.
A cursory glance across numerous secondary ticketing sites shows that the composite least expensive ticket at Delta Center for the Nov. 13 game versus the Hurricanes is $37, while the least expensive ticket for the Nov. 18 game against the Capitals is $58, should fans want to watch Alexander Ovechkin continue to chase Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record.
It’s a contrast compared to the demand ahead of the Nov. 15 game against the Golden Knights, a perennial Stanley Cup contender that could become one of the UHC’s chief geographic rivals. Those sites list the least expensive ticket for the game on Nov. 15 against Vegas as $119.67. The composite cheapest lower-bowl tickets with an unobstructed view is $248.
“When a new team comes in, it’s Christmas Day,” Schulz said. “They can come in and buy the best seats and put in orders for blocks of a hundred and resell them on the secondary market. If they can get their hands on them, they only have to resell a quarter of the season and they already have their money back. If a team goes to the playoffs, it’s like 12 Christmases having those tickets.”
Barney said the franchise has a “multiyear strategy” when it comes to how ticketing will work for fans from various economic backgrounds.
He said that adding 6,000 unobstructed seats once the Delta Center renovation is completed will help with making the UHC more accessible. Another step is to work with community partners to ensure they’re getting UHC tickets in the hands of fans from underrepresented groups so they can also have access.
They’ll also continue to sell those obstructed view seats that Barney also called the “partial ice” seats or “single-ice seats” — in reference to the steep angles behind each goal — that will start at $19 per game.
“We want to make sure we’re being strategic about how the tickets are being distributed,” said Barney, who grew up in nearby Kaysville. “I think the move to make sure that concessions are also more affordable for people was also really important.”
Hartweg said it’s common for teams to provide more cost-effective food and drink offerings to help offset the price of a game ticket. He said there are places that offer $5 beers, but it might come with the caveat that it’s in the 700 section of the arena.
Delta Center has what’s called a “Mountain Menu” which is a fan-friendly pricing option in which a bottle of water is $2 while hot dogs, ice cream, nachos and popcorn are $3. There were also other options such as Chick-fil-A, with 30 nuggets for $30, while a chicken sandwich and waffle fries cost $16.
“It’s worth the price,” said Christian Priskos, who grew up in Salt Lake City. “We have a Tier 1 NHL team that’s in downtown Salt Lake City. It’s not only boosting the local economy with local business, local bars and local restaurants and everything you want to do. But it’s also boosting the social scene as well. People want to say ‘Salt Lake is a sleepy town.’ But, we’re not. We’re a Tier 1 city and the Utah Hockey Club is another step toward showing that.”
WHILE THE FOOD and drink prices might be new to Utah Hockey Club fans, those are the prices that Jazz fans have grown accustomed to paying over the years. And the SEG can take components of its playbook from running the Jazz to serve Utah hockey fans.
On the ice, they are boosted by a strong collection of young talent — and the ninth-best prospect pipeline. A playoff appearance in Year 1 is a real possibility.
From a fan engagement perspective, both Armstrong and Barney shared how going to the Delta Center for a Utah Hockey Club game could be a first for a number of people in the area. At present, the Jazz are in a rebuild yet have sold out for 296 consecutive games. Delta Center, which holds 18,306 fans for basketball, had more than 14,000 fans attend a preseason basketball game less than 24 hours before the first game in UHC history.
Armstrong said that element of demand coupled with how historically engaged fans across Salt Lake City and the state of Utah have been could also play a role in the Utah Hockey Club having long-term success.
“There’s a lot of Utahns who haven’t been able to experience a live sporting event in the building because the Jazz have sold out so many consecutive games,” Armstrong said. “It gives people another opportunity to be part of this world-class venue in Salt Lake they have not been able to access with the Jazz. … Now we’ve given them that new product that gives them that chance.”
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Andrea Adelson
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — After Alabama beat Tennessee 37-20 on Saturday night, coach Kalen DeBoer wanted to make sure his players enjoyed their postgame cigars to celebrate another win in their storied rivalry.
There is still a long road to go, but what Alabama has done to get to this point is worthy of a celebratory cigar, too.
After a Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has stacked one victory after the next, winning six straight, finding an edge and different ways to motivate themselves. Proving they were better than that team that opened in Tallahassee is certainly one of those reasons. But there were others — proving they could win on the road and doing so against Georgia. Beating Vanderbilt after losing to them last year. And Saturday night, regaining the edge against Tennessee after losing to them last year, too.
The result? Alabama is the first team in SEC history to win four straight games, all against ranked teams, with no bye week mixed in, according to ESPN Research.
“They’ve got an edge to them still, and haven’t lost it since the beginning there after week one. That’s hard to do,” DeBoer said afterward. “It’s really hard to do. As you go through the weeks, there’s been enough reasons, different motivation factors, to get up for games, and our guys, each and every week, find a way to do it. So we’ve got to keep the pedal down.”
The key turning point happened just before halftime. Tennessee was on the Alabama 1-yard line with eight seconds left in the quarter, down 16-7. Joey Aguilar dropped back and threw right toward tight end Miles Kitselman, who appeared to be open in the end zone. But Zabien Brown jumped the route and intercepted the pass, returning it 99 yards for the score to give Alabama a 23-7 lead.
“The ball fell right in my hand,” Brown said. “I [saw] open field and I started running. I’m like, if I get tackled, the time [will] go out. So I gotta find a way to get in that [end] zone.”
It was a triumphant day for the defense, which had struggled at times to limit explosive plays throughout the course of the season and put their stamp on a game. Alabama also had a safety in the first half and made life uncomfortable for Aguilar all night. Tennessee came into the game as the highest scoring offense in the SEC, but Alabama held them to a season-low 20 points and 410 total yards. The Vols only scored on two of their five red zone chances.
Alabama fans lit their cigars in stadium well before the game ended. It was Alabama’s 11th straight home win in the series, and also ran DeBoer’s record at home to 11-0 since his arrival last year. He has also won six straight since switching to a black hoodie on the sideline, something that has become a major talking point among the Alabama fan base.
When asked if he was giving the fans what they wanted by continuing to wear the black hoodie, DeBoer said, “This isn’t new. I’ve done this for years. But we’re going to ride the momentum. I told the guys not to get any [cigar] ashes on it.”
The Crimson Tide sit at 4-0 in SEC play and are one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, along with Texas A&M. Up next is a trip to South Carolina before an open date.
“I think we understand the week of preparation gets you mentally in the right space to where you’re confident going out on the football field,” DeBoer said. “When you’re confident, you got a little more energy. And that’s really what I see with our guys, and that fires me up.”
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Adam Rittenberg
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — When the clock expired on a 34-24 win over USC, Notre Dame took a dig at its West Coast rival by playing a modified version of the song “California Love,” which began instead with the lyric “Jeremiyah Love.”
The serenade for USC players and coaches as they left a rain-soaked Notre Dame Stadium certainly didn’t sound good, but it wasn’t as bad as facing the actual Jeremiyah Love and his sidekick, Jadarian Price. Love rolled up 228 rushing yards, the most by a Notre Dame player in the 512-game history of Notre Dame Stadium, and the most by a Notre Dame player against USC in the storied rivalry. Price added 87 rushing yards and a 100-yard kick return touchdown that put the 13th-ranked Irish ahead for good.
Notre Dame kept its College Football Playoff hopes alive with its third straight win against USC in the final scheduled game of the historic intersectional rivalry.
“It’s not very common in college, not very common in life, to see two guys that are so talented, that deserve the ball in their hands every snap, put the team above themselves, and then make the most of their opportunities,” coach Marcus Freeman said. “They’re not pouting, they’re each other’s biggest supporter.
“That might be one of the hardest things we ask our plays to do — put team before me. Everything outside of here says, ‘No, you come before team.'”
After getting only 20 touches combined in a season-opening loss at Miami, Love and Price knew they would be featured against No. 20 USC, as the forecast called for heavy rain. Love raced 63 yards on his first carry and finished Notre Dame’s opening drive with a 12-yard touchdown run. On the team’s next scoring drive, Price had 56 rushing yards and a 16-yard touchdown.
“We believe that every game goes through the running back room,” Love said, “so if we’re on our stuff, the offense is going to be on their stuff. Just be great backs, be great teammates.”
Price’s biggest play came on special teams, after USC had taken a 24-21 lead with 4:32 left in the third quarter. He initially erred by going outside his blocker on the kick return, but eventually found room and sliced through USC’s defense.
He became the first Notre Dame player with multiple 100-yard kick returns, as he had one Sept. 20 late in the first half against Purdue. Price also had a 99-yard scoring return against USC in 2023 on the same field.
“I am sitting there like, ‘God, I get you, now,'” Freeman said, smiling. “Notre Dame, there is something [here]. At that moment I’m like, ‘What is going on?’ … That was a huge play for this team.”
A preseason All-America selection, Love only received 14 total touches — 10 rushes and four receptions — in Notre Dame’s season-opening loss at Miami, while Price had just six carries against the Hurricanes. But both backs have seen their workload increase as Notre Dame shapes its offensive identity around them.
“It’s really dangerous,” Price said. “We start with the run game.”
USC answered for much of the night with its passing attack, which piled up 328 yards. But after converting a third-and-9 with a 42-yard pass from Jayden Maiava to Makai Lemon into Notre Dame territory, USC called for a wide receiver option pass, and Lemon lost the ball, recovered by Irish linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.
“Stupid call,” coach Lincoln Riley said. “It was a stupid call.”
Notre Dame and USC met for the 96th time Saturday night, but the future of the series is in doubt despite a desire on both sides to continue. The schools have differing views on the length of a future scheduling agreement and where games are played.
The rivalry hasn’t lost its zest, as players and coaches barked at each other after the game, and several USC players were whisked away as the Irish gathered to sing their alma mater.
“This is the biggest intersectional rivalry in college football,” Notre Dame linebacker Jaylen Sneed said. “It just means more to us. … It should still be played. It’s a game that I circle every year on my calendar, and I think everybody else does.”
On Sunday, the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will do something they’ve never done before — they’re going to meet for two days at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “level set” meeting. It’s an early opportunity for the entire group to get together and discuss what they’ve seen so far without releasing a ranking.
And they saw a lot in Week 8.
Undefeated Miami went down in a stunning loss at home to Louisville. Undefeated Ole Miss went down. Undefeated Texas Tech went down. Undefeated Memphis went down. And Alabama made a case to move up.
There was a lot of movement in Week 8, and the committee members will do their own mock ranking to help the new members better understand the process. They will use the results to-date, but the first of six real rankings won’t be revealed until Nov. 4. The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 8’s top 12 projection is a snapshot of who has the early edge if the ranking were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ grip on the top spot got tighter after Miami’s home loss to Louisville on Friday night, but the Hoosiers are on their heels. Ohio State beat Wisconsin with ease, earning its third Big Ten road win. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiencies — and No. 2 in total efficiency — according to ESPN Analytics. They were also No. 2 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record — all metrics that indicate the total package the committee is looking for with eye test and résumé.
Why they could be lower: There would be some committee members who consider Indiana for the top spot, as the undefeated Hoosiers’ road win at Oregon remains the best in the country. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 3 in Game Control. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas, though, would loom large in the room as a separating factor.
Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana are on track to face each other in the Big Ten title game. If that comes to fruition and they are both undefeated, the loser of the game can still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye because those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games and the best chance in the league to reach the Big Ten championship.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: Indiana moved up one spot after beating Michigan State and as a result of Miami losing to Louisville, but the Hoosiers are here because they won at Oregon on Oct. 11. The double-digit win snapped the Ducks’ 18-game home winning streak and legitimized IU’s playoff hopes. More than that, it put the Hoosiers in contention for a top-four seed and first-round bye. They continued to build upon that Saturday against the Spartans, earning their fourth straight Big Ten win, including two on the road. One of the biggest differences between IU and Ohio State in the eyes of the committee would be the Buckeyes’ nonconference win against Texas, which trumps IU’s wins against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s win against Oregon is still better than Ohio State’s best win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. That means the average top 25 opponent would have just an 11% chance to achieve the same 7-0 record against the same opponents. The committee also considers common opponents, and while Ohio State beat Illinois with ease 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic fashion 63-10.
Need to know: Indiana has the second-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game behind Ohio State, according to ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s certainly not the obstacle it appeared to be a month ago, but it’s still the most difficult road trip remaining and a tougher environment to win in than Maryland.
Why they could be here: With the win against Tennessee, Alabama has beaten four straight ranked opponents, including Georgia and Missouri on the road. This has been one of the most grueling stretches any team in the country has played, and Alabama hasn’t just won — it’s gotten better each week. Since the inception of the CFP, the committee has never shied away from ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team if it has played better against better competition, and the Tide has done that.
Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State did happen, and the Noles have since spiraled into irrelevance in the national picture and the ACC race. Texas A&M has a better nonconference win at Notre Dame, while Alabama beat a beleaguered 2-5 Wisconsin team at home on Sept. 13.
Need to know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, well above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama won’t face a quarterback better than John Mateer in the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to struggle, and LSU still seems incapable of putting together a complete performance.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M is still undefeated — the only one left in the SEC — but it hasn’t racked up the statement wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 victory against a 2-5 Arkansas team didn’t come easily. The Aggies allowed 527 total yards, including 268 on the ground. Still, the Aggies earned their second road triumph of the season, a double-digit victory against a pesky Arkansas team playing inspired football under interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is a big reason why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win against a ranked opponent.
Why they could be higher: If the committee keeps the Aggies ahead of Bama, it will be because of the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.
Need to know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play each other during the regular season but could meet in the SEC title game — if the Aggies survive a more difficult back half of the season. Texas A&M still has three tough road games against LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night road trip against a ranked rival is a tricky way to end the season.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs have two wins over what should be CFP Top 25 opponents in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and some committee members will consider the three-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 a better loss than Miami’s home loss to Louisville after a bye. The head-to-head result will keep Georgia behind the Tide, though, as long as their records remain the same. Saturday’s win against previously undefeated Ole Miss is the Bulldogs’ best victories of the season and one of the better ones in the country.
Why they could be lower: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a poor performance. There could still be some committee members who believe Miami’s overall résumé is better than Georgia’s with nonconference wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference triumphs are over Marshall and Austin Peay. And prior to the Louisville game, Miami was playing better defense more consistently than the Bulldogs.
Need to know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on track to reach the ACC championship game. If Georgia can capture the regular-season finale between the two schools, it could wind up being one of its best wins in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will likely be the last ranked SEC opponent the Bulldogs face.
Why they could be here: The loss to Louisville will be less of a problem in the committee meeting room than how Miami lost. The four turnovers from Carson Beck — plus converting just five of 12 third downs — are the kinds of stats former coaches and players in the room will bring up. There will also be a respect, though, for one-loss Louisville, which would probably be a CFP Top 25 team. Miami’s overall schedule will still carry a lot of weight with the committee, as wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a significantly tougher nonconference lineup than most other contenders.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss had a better loss in Week 8 on the road to Georgia than the Canes’ home defeat by Louisville.
Need to know: The Canes’ chances of earning a first-round bye as a top four seed took a hit with their loss to Louisville. In the straight seeding format, the selection committee’s top four teams will earn the top-four seeds — they are no longer reserved for conference champions. Miami could finish as a one-loss ACC champ, but still finish outside of the top four. The selection committee compares common opponents, and will consider that Miami beat Florida State and Alabama did not, but the Tide could win the overall debate with a stronger résumé. The committee also considers how teams lost, and the Canes made too many mistakes on both sides of the ball against Louisville, but the Cardinals are a talented team that could be in the CFP Top 25 on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami has left its state. The Mustangs beat Clemson 35-24 on Saturday, but the Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Why they could be here: A close road loss to a CFP contender isn’t going to knock the Rebels out of the field, but their overall résumé could use a boost after LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. It helped a bit that Tulane found a way to escape Army on Saturday — though the Green Wave needed two touchdown passes in the final two minutes to do it. Tulane remains in contention for a playoff bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and Ole Miss beat the Green Wave soundly, 45-10 on Sept. 20. The selection committee pays close attention to how these games are won and lost, and will have seen Ole Miss struggle with Washington State and its inability to make some critical defensive stops against Georgia.
Why they could be lower: Statistically, Oregon has been the more complete team, entering Week 8 No. 5 in total efficiency while Ole Miss was No. 30. The Ducks were No. 4 in the country in points margin, and No. 13 in scoring defense. Ole Miss has also been one of the nation’s most penalized teams, ranking No. 118 with 7.83 per game and No. 126 with 74 penalty yards per game, while Oregon is in the top 10 in both categories for fewest penalties and yards. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss also ranked No. 63 in schedule strength while Oregon was No. 25.
Need to know: The Rebels are under some pressure to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 because a 10-2 record might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have lost two of its top three chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents — the one they got was against LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will be the second straight road trip for Ole Miss.
Why they could be here: The Ducks returned to their dominating form, albeit against a now 3-4 Rutgers team. Oregon has flourished against lesser competition all season, leaving no doubt it’s the better team and padding its stats along the way against teams like 1-6 Oklahoma State and FCS Montana State. They needed double overtime to win at Penn State, though, and lost at home by double digits to Indiana. Quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times against the Hoosiers. Their best wins so far have come on the road against Northwestern and Penn State, but selection committee members also consider the extraordinary amount of travel involved, including the nearly 3,000 miles in Week 8 to Piscataway, N.J.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has simply played better more consistently than Ole Miss, and the Ducks entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Game Control metric.
Need to know: If Oregon runs the table and finishes as a one-loss team without a conference title, this No. 8 spot would still give the Ducks a first-round home game as the higher seed, pitted against No. 9 Oklahoma in this case.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Road trips to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota should be bowl bound — but the Trojans will likely be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face.
Why they could be here: The Sooners earned their first true road win of the season on Saturday at South Carolina. The win against Michigan continues to be a valuable nonconference result, but the committee would probably be more impressed with Miami’s overall résumé. The Sooners’ narrow home win against Auburn has taken a hit over the past few weeks. Oklahoma’s win against South Carolina was further proof that quarterback John Mateer remains one of the most talented players in the country, as he added a 40-yard punt to his résumé in his second game back from hand surgery.
Why they could be lower: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that would be the biggest reason the committee would flip the two. Oklahoma’s defense has been significantly better against a tougher schedule.
Need to know: The Sooners end the season with five straight ranked opponents, including back-to-back November trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will have a much-needed bye week before traveling to Alabama.
Why they could be here: With LSU’s loss and Georgia Tech’s win at Duke, the door opened for the Yellow Jackets to enter the field. Georgia Tech has two road wins against ACC teams over .500 (at Wake Forest and now at Duke). Its out-of-conference schedule includes wins over power conferences foes Colorado and Virginia Tech, but that pair is just 5-9 combined. None of the Yellow Jackets’ opponents are currently ranked, and entering this week, Georgia Tech’s schedule strength was No. 94 in the country. Still, the selection committee would see on its game film cut-ups that Haynes King threw for 205 yards against Duke and ran for a game-high 120 yards. It’s a talented team that continues to find ways to win, including with a school-record 95-yard scoop n’ score on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Jackets have found ways to win, but they haven’t exactly asserted themselves against unranked opponents. Their only double-digit win came against the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.
Need to know: Georgia Tech might not have any wins against CFP Top 25 teams on Selection Day, but it wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot as the ACC champion. It would be a part of the committee’s deliberations, though, if Georgia Tech finished as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with those losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be here: The Cougars beat their toughest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah team that now has two losses. BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12, and continues to find ways to win. They’ve also got three road wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech losing to ASU.
Why they could be lower: Wins against FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the other contenders. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Need to know: BYU would lock up a spot as the Big 12 champion, but if the Cougars can manage to stay undefeated until the conference title game, they would keep their hopes alive for earning an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The committee would consider how the title game unfolded, and if BYU lost a close game or in convincing fashion. It helps BYU that Cincinnati is having a good season and could be a CFP Top 25 team, but that’s a double edged sword because the Bearcats are also in their way.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders lost on Saturday, they’re still the most talented team left on the Cougars’ schedule.
Why they could be here: The Irish have won five straight since their 0-2 start, but it’s the way they have played during that stretch that would impress the committee enough to consider them for a top-12 spot. Notre Dame put it all together against USC, its first win against a ranked opponent this season. The Irish won the old-school way, with a strong running game and a defense that has shown measurable improvement in each of the past four games. Special teams was also a factor against the Trojans.
Why they could be lower: Two losses. Period. And it doesn’t help that the first was to Miami, which lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — South Florida as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against a team that found a way to win at Florida State.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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