Used electric car deals are coming as lease returns expected to surge
We might start to get some great used electric car deals starting in 2026 as EV lease returns are expected to surge in a big way.
While the EV revolution has been going on for over a decade now, the used EV market is still quite immature because EVs have only been delivered in large volumes for the last few years.
2026. That is going to be the year of the used EV.
J.D. Power is out with a new report that states an expected 230% increase in electric vehicle lease return in 2026:
Lease volumes for new EVs surged 355% throughout 2023 and 88% through September 2024. Franchise-only (excluding Tesla) EV lease volumes were even higher, rising 438% throughout 2023 and 109% through September 2024. As a result, returning EV lease volumes are projected to dip slightly in 2025 before spiking 230% in 2026. This trend runs counter to what’s happening industry-wide where total lease volumes for gas-powered vehicles have been lower than pre-pandemic levels, creating a likely shortage in used-vehicle availability in 2025 and 2026.
After projections for a roughly flat year in 2025, the report expects a massive increase in 2026 based on current lease data:
The reason for the surge is quite simple. The highly reported “lease loophole” to get access to the tax credit has resulted in a surge of EV leases:
Due in large part to a provision in the federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit, which allows auto dealers to pass along a $7,500 tax credit to all EV lessees, nearly half (46%) of all franchise EV sales and 21% of total EV sales (including Tesla) in 2023 were leases. That trend continued throughout the first nine months of 2024, with the lease share of total franchise and Tesla EV volume reaching 30%. Meanwhile, lease volumes for gas-powered vehicles have been lower than pre-pandemic levels. Industry-wide, just 2.4 million gas-powered vehicles were leased in 2023. While that represents a 17% increase from 2022, it is still considerably lower than the pre-pandemic average of more than three million leases annually, which will likely create a shortage in used-vehicle availability in 2025 and 2026.
While some of those leasers are going to keep their vehicles, many are going to give them back and upgrade, resulting in a surge of used EVs available for sale.
Used EV prices have already come down greatly, partly due to Tesla slashing prices in order for demand to keep up against its rapidly growing production capacity between 2020-2023.
Now, these fresh “new” used EVs to hit the market in 2026 are likely going to put a lot of pressure on used EV prices.
Electrek’s Take
I am excited for more mature used car markets even if it means that EV value will drop in 2026.
Most people buy used cars and so far, they have been quite limited in their EV options. It does sound like 2026 will be the year when the used EV market will expand into something more impactful, and lower-income people will be able to get off of gas.
It’s going to be a big step in the EV revolution.
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Leading yard operation 3PL YMX Logistics has announced plans to deploy fully twenty (20) of Orange EV’s fully electric Class 8 terminal trucks at a number of distribution and manufacturing sites across North America.
As the shipping and logistics industries increasingly move to embrace electrification, yard operations have proven to be an almost ideal use case for EVs, enabling companies like Orange EV, which specialize in yard hostlers or terminal tractors, to drive real, impactful change. To that end, companies like YMX are partnering with Orange EV.
“This relationship between YMX and Orange EV is a significant step forward in transforming yard operations across North America,” said Matt Yearling, CEO of YMX Logistics. “Besides the initial benefits of reduction in emissions and carbon footprint, our customers are also seeing improvements in the overall operational efficiency and seeking to expand. Our team members have also been sharing positive feedback about their new equipment and highlighting the positive impact on their health and day-to-day activities.”
This Orange looks good in blue
One of the most interesting aspects of this story – beyond the Orange EV HUSK-e XP’s almost unbelievable 180,000 lb. GCWR spec. – is that this isn’t a story about California’s ports, which mandate EVs. Instead, YMX is truly deploying these trucks throughout the country, with at least four currently in Chicago (and more on the way).
“Our collaboration with YMX Logistics represents a powerful stride in delivering sustainable yard solutions at scale for enterprise customers,” explains Wayne Mathisen, CEO of Orange EV. “With rising demand for electric yard trucks, our joint efforts ensure that more companies can access the environmental, financial, and operational benefits of electrification … this is a win for the planet, the workforce, and the bottom line of these organizations.”
We interviewed Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens on The Heavy Equipment Podcast a few months back, but if you’re not familiar with these purpose-built trucks, it’s worth a listen.
HEP-isode 26
SOURCE | IMAGES: YMX Logistics.
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On today’s thrilling episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got the all-new Hyundai IONIQ 9 and its “a “rolling living room” pivoting captain’s chairs, Kia gets a go-fast 7 passenger SUV and an updated EV6, while Honda announces plans to start producing solid-state batteries at its new facility in just a few weeks.
We’ve also got big news for American workers – a Minnesota power company is ditching coal for solar while ExxonMobil and LG Chem get to work extracting thousands of tons of lithium out of Tennessee’s soil.
Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations sitewide. Learn more by clicking here.
You can watch the episode, below.
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Read more: Farm-fegnugen? Volkswagen rolls out an electric tractor.
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Arevon Energy has kicked off operations at Vikings Solar-plus-Storage – one of the US’s first utility-scale solar peaker plants.
The $529 million project in Imperial County, California, near Holtville, features 157 megawatts of solar power paired with 150 megawatts/600 megawatt hours of battery storage.
Vikings Solar-plus-Storage is designed to take cheap daytime solar power and store it for use during more expensive peak demand times, like late afternoons and evenings. The battery storage system can quickly respond to changes in demand, helping tackle critical grid needs.
Vikings leverages provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that support affordable clean energy, strengthen grid resilience, boost US manufacturing, and create good jobs.
The Vikings project has already brought significant benefits to the local area. It employed over 170 people during construction, many local workers, and boosted nearby businesses like restaurants, hotels, and stores. On top of that, Vikings will pay out more than $17 million to local governments over its lifespan.
“Vikings’ advanced design sets the standard for safe and reliable solar-plus-storage configurations,” said Arevon CEO Kevin Smith. “The project incorporates solar panels, trackers, and batteries that showcase the growing strength of US renewable energy manufacturing.”
The project includes Tesla Megapack battery systems made in California, First Solar’s thin-film solar panels, and smart solar trackers from Nextracker. San Diego-based SOLV Energy handled the engineering, procurement, and construction work.
San Diego Community Power (SDCP) will buy the energy from the Vikings project under a long-term deal, helping power nearly 1 million customer accounts. SDCP and Arevon have also signed an agreement for the 200 MW Avocet Energy Storage Project in Carson, California, which will start construction in early 2025.
Vikings is named after the Holtville High School mascot, and Arevon is giving back to the local community by funding scholarships for deserving Holtville High students.
Arevon is a major renewable energy developer across the US and a key player in California, with nearly 2,500 MW in operation and more than 1,250 MW under construction.
Read more: Minnesota’s largest coal plant goes solar: Sherco Solar comes online
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