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“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”

Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.

Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.

President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.

He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.

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There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?

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How big was the win?

Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.

That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.

Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.

How big were the gains?

Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.

Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.

The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.

In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.

Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.

That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.

What about the type of people backing him?

This tells a similar story.

President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.

A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.

Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.

The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.

While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.

The Democratic decline

While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.

In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.

He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.

But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.

Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.

Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.

Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Why US may soon have a real energy emergency

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Why US may soon have a real energy emergency

Donald Trump declared a questionable “national energy emergency” when he entered the White House. Soon, he may have one for real.

The president promised his America would “drill, baby drill” to new levels of prosperity by making the most of its reserves of oil and gas.

Mr Trump has now axed hundreds of billions in tax breaks and grants for low-carbon power and clean energy research and given them instead to fossil fuel investments.

Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters

There’s no better example than Revolution Wind, one of the largest offshore renewable energy projects in America.

Nearly 80% complete, the White House ordered an immediate halt.

When we visited, the massive 200m-wide turbines were going round – a temporary injunction has allowed construction to continue – but they’re not yet connected to the grid.

As long as Mr Trump is in power, it’s not certain they’ll ever be.

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The future of other major wind and solar developments is also in doubt, as is more than $100bn (£75bn) in clean energy investment.

There’s less doubt about the fossil fuel business however. The industry is getting what it asked for after backing Mr Trump’s re-election.

US energy secretary Chris Wright and many key White House staff and advisers are former fossil fuel industry insiders.

Analysis for Sky News, by Global Witness, reveals that since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, US oil and gas production has grown five times faster than the average of the world’s next largest producers.

An increase that really took off during Mr Trump’s first presidency.

The analysis of company data goes on to reveal how US oil and gas production is now forecast to continue growing – by 2035 to double that of its next closest rival, Russia.

“Instead of reducing investment in dirty oil and gas, the principal drivers of climate breakdown, the US has doubled down on fossil fuels, ramping up production,” said Patrick Galey, of Global Witness.

A fact that would probably be music to the president’s ears and to many conservative Americans who voted for him.

US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia's by 2035
Image:
US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia’s by 2035

Mr Trump’s “energy emergency” was perhaps a predictable response to the “climate emergency” invoked by his political rivals.

The only problem is, apart from accelerating global warming, his energy plan is on course to make America worse off.

‘US energy demand to grow 25%’

For the first time in years, US electricity demand has been going up. It is driven in part by a race to build power-hungry data centres – further encouraged by Mr Trump’s aim for American supremacy in AI.

Demand is rising and renewable energy is the quickest, cheapest way to meet it.

Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters

President Trump has championed supremacy in AI – backing investments in and clearing red tape for massive energy-hungry data centres.

After declining, then remaining stable for years, US energy demand is now forecast to grow 25% by 2030, according to analysis by ICF International.

But where will all the electricity come from?

We went to Mitsubishi Power, which makes state-of- the-art gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia.

Demand for new turbines has never been greater, according to Bill Newsom, the US CEO. Wait times for new turbines is now double what it was just two years ago.

Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia
Image:
Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia

And while America will need gas to meet rising demand – it’s twice as clean as coal and provides “baseload” power that renewable energy grids can’t yet match – it can’t be built fast enough.

American businesses, including AI, will likely suffer because they can’t get the power they need.

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US consumers – who Mr Trump promised lower bills – will end up paying more because he also made renewable energy more expensive.

And that’s to say nothing of the impact on carbon emissions.

The speed of transition being called for to meet the 1.5C Paris target was always going to be very expensive, as countries like the UK are finding out.

But by fighting one “emergency” with another, Mr Trump risks making Americans – and the climate – worse off.

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One year on from Donald Trump’s election win, an untold story has emerged

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One year on from Donald Trump's election win, an untold story has emerged

It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.

There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.

The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?

On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.

I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.

“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”

The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.

“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.

“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”

There was little question here that people are happy.

Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
Image:
Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy

“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.

“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.

“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.

“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.

Andrea says she's happy with how the economy is faring
Image:
Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring

A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.

He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.

But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.

“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”

That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.

That’s the untold story of the past year.

A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.

Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.

At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.

The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.

David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
Image:
David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks

The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.

“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.

“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”

Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.

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Steelton in Pennsylvania
Image:
Steelton in Pennsylvania

Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.

Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.

Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.

“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.

Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
Image:
Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser

“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.

I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.

“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”

Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.

Sandra says it's getting harder to make ends meet
Image:
Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet

“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”

Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.

A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.

“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.

Geraldine's welfare has been affected by the shutdown
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Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown

Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.

SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.

I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.

A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.

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Nancy Pelosi, the first woman in Speaker’s office, to stand down after 40 years in US Congress

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Nancy Pelosi, the first woman in Speaker's office, to stand down after 40 years in US Congress

Nancy Pelosi, the first woman in the Speaker’s office, has announced her retirement from American politics after a nearly 40-year career.

The 85-year-old, who has represented San Francisco since 1987, revealed her decision two days after Californian voters overwhelmingly approved “Proposition 50”, a state redistricting effort aimed at flipping five House seats to Democrats in the midterm elections next year.

“I will not be seeking re-election to Congress,” Pelosi said in a video address to voters.

“With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year of service as your proud representative.

“My message to the city I love is this: San Francisco, know your power,” she said. “We have made history. We have made progress. We have always led the way.”

“And now we must continue to do so by remaining full participants in our democracy and fighting for the American ideals we hold dear.”

Nancy Pelosi at the Democratic National Convention in 2024.  Pic: Reuters
Image:
Nancy Pelosi at the Democratic National Convention in 2024. Pic: Reuters

Mrs Pelosi served as the 52nd Speaker of the House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011, and again from 2019 to 2023, and was the first woman elected to the role.

She was also the first woman to lead a major political party in either chamber of Congress, heading the House Democrats from 2003 to 2023.

During her second tenure as Speaker, the House twice impeached Donald Trump – in December 2019, and January 2021 – though the Senate acquitted him both times.

And in February 2020, during President Trump’s State of the Union address, she famously tore up her official copy of it, arguing “it was such a dirty speech”.

An architect of the Affordable Care Act, Mrs Pelosi has also been credited with quietly persuading Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.

End of an era

Nancy Pelosi was a central figure during two of the most turbulent political periods – the Trump presidency and President Biden’s departure from the 2024 election.

During the Trump era, she emerged as the Democratic Party’s most visible counterweight to the administration.

She led the House through two impeachments and became was prime target for those who stormed the Capitol Building on January 6th 2021.

In 2024, her behind-the-scenes influence was decisive as Democrats confronted Joe Biden’s declining political position.

While careful in her public statements, her subtle signalling to leaders and donors accelerated his departure from the race.

From a wider perspective, her retirement marks the end of one of the most influential congressional careers in modern US politics.

As the first woman Speaker of the House, she shaped legislative priorities for two decades and her departure signals a generational shift within the Democratic Party.

Now her political contemporaries have paid tribute.

Former President Joe Biden said America “will always be grateful” to her.

He posted on X: “I often said Nancy Pelosi was the best Speaker of the House in American history – it’s why I awarded her the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

“When I was President, we worked together to grow our economy, create millions of jobs, and make historic investments in our nation’s future.”

California’s Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom, said she “inspired generations” and “set the standard for what public service should be”.

While party colleague, Senator Adam Schiff, who also represents California, called her “the greatest Speaker in American history” and highlighted her “tenacity, intellect, strategic acumen and fierce advocacy”.

And Representative Don Beyer of Virginia, another Democrat, said she was “a major figure in American history”, a “barrier breaker”, and “one of our most brilliant and accomplished leaders”.

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“Why did you refuse the National Guard on January 6?”

First elected in 1987, she came into politics later in life, and has long resisted calls to step aside, turning questions about her future into spirited rebuttals.

But she’s faced new challenges in recent years and her decision to step down is not fully unexpected.

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Last year she fractured her hip when she fell during a European trip, and was rushed to a military hospital for surgery.

And in 2022, her husband Paul Pelosi was gravely injured by a home intruder who beat him over the head with a hammer and demanded to know “Where is Nancy?”

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Nonetheless, she’s maintained a rigorous political schedule of public events and party fundraisers.

Now eyes will turn to the question of her successor, both at home in San Francisco, and in the US Congress where she plays a behind-the-scenes leadership role.

She’s already faced a potential primary challenge from Saikat Chakrabarti, a left-wing newcomer who played a part in the rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – another rising star in the progressive firmament.

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