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“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”

Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.

Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.

President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.

He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.

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There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?

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How big was the win?

Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.

That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.

Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.

How big were the gains?

Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.

Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.

The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.

In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.

Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.

That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.

What about the type of people backing him?

This tells a similar story.

President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.

A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.

Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.

The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.

While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.

The Democratic decline

While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.

In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.

He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.

But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.

Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.

Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.

Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Donald Trump awarded FIFA peace prize at World Cup draw

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Donald Trump awarded FIFA peace prize at World Cup draw

US President Donald Trump has been awarded FIFA’s new peace prize at the draw for next year’s World Cup.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino presented Mr Trump with a large golden trophy – formed of hands holding the earth – and a gold medal, which he wore around his neck.

The certificate, which Mr Infantino handed over at Washington DC’s Kennedy Center on Friday, recognises the US president for his actions to “promote peace and unity around the world”.

World football’s governing body, which announced the annual award last month, said it would be given to “individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace”.

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Mr Trump said it was “truly one of the greatest honours of my life”.

He said: “We saved millions and millions of lives. The Congo is an example – over 10 million people killed. It was heading for another 10 million very quickly.”

US President Donald Trump. Pics: Reuters
Image:
US President Donald Trump. Pics: Reuters

He also pointed to India and Pakistan, saying, “so many wars that we were able to end, in some cases a little before they started”.

Ahead of the draw, Mr Trump told reporters he did not care about the prize, but noted that he had “settled eight wars” in nearly 11 months in office.

The United States, along with Canada and Mexico, will host the tournament in 2026.

Mr Infantino, who has built up a strong relationship with the US president, backed him for the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this year.

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“This is what we want from a leader – a leader that cares about the people,” Mr Infantino said of Mr Trump.

The FIFA leader said to Mr Trump, “this is your prize, this is your peace prize”.

US President Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US President Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump thanked his family, including his wife, first lady Melania Trump, and praised the leaders of the other two host nations – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum – in his brief remarks.

Mr Infantino has often spoken about football as a unifier for the world, but the prize is a departure from the federation’s traditional focus on sport.

FIFA has described the prize as one that rewards “individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace, and by doing so have united people across the world”.

The award comes during a week where Mr Trump’s administration has been under scrutiny for lethal strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and as Mr Trump hardens his rhetoric against immigrants.

The Nobel Peace Prize this year was eventually awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who said shortly after receiving the prize that she was dedicating it in part to Mr Trump for “his decisive support of our cause”.

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Netflix agrees blockbuster $72bn deal for Warner Bros studios

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Netflix agrees blockbuster bn deal for Warner Bros studios

Netflix has agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal to secure Warner Bros Discovery’s film and TV studios and supercharge its library through rights to top franchises including Harry Potter and Game Of Thrones.

It had been reported that the US streaming giant was in exclusive talks over the deal following a bidding war for the assets.

Paramount Skydance and Comcast, the ultimate owner of Sky News, were the rival suitors for the bulk of WBD that also includes HBO, the HBO Max streaming platform and DC Studios.

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While Netflix has agreed a $27.75 per share price with WBD, which equates to the $72bn purchase figure, the deal gives the assets a total value of $82.7bn.

It will see WBD come under Netflix ownership once its remaining Discovery Global division, mostly legacy cable networks including CNN and the TNT sports channels, is separated.

However, the agreement is set to attract scrutiny from competition regulators, particularly in the United States and Europe.

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Both WBD and Netflix do not see the prospect of the deal being completed until late 2026 or 2027.

The main stumbling block is likely to be the fact that Netflix, which has hits including Stranger Things and Squid Game, is already the world’s biggest streaming service.

Stranger Things is one of Netflix's biggest hits. Pic: Netflix
Image:
Stranger Things is one of Netflix’s biggest hits. Pic: Netflix

Further drama could come in the form of a complaint by Paramount, which had previously made a bid for the whole company.

CNBC reported this week that Paramount had claimed the auction process was biased in favour of Netflix.

Entertainment news provider Variety has also reported that major studios fear an institutional crisis for Hollywood unless the move is blocked.

Ted Sarandos, the co-chief executive of Netflix, said: “By combining Warner Bros’ incredible library of shows and movies – from timeless classics like Casablanca and Citizen Kane to modern favourites like Harry Potter and Friends – with our culture-defining titles like Stranger Things, KPop Demon Hunters and Squid Game, we’ll be able to do that even better.

“Together, we can give audiences more of what they love and help define the next century of storytelling.”

Netflix shares were trading down more than 3% in pre-market deals but recovered much of that loss when Wall Street opened. Those for WBD were up by more than 2%.

David O’Hara, managing director at the advisory firm MKI Global Partners, said of the proposed deal: “The 12-18 month timeline signals a long antitrust review, but despite the overlap between Netflix and HBO Max, there is a path to approval through possible HBO divestment.

“Netflix would not accept a $5.8bn break fee if it didn’t see at least a small chance of the deal closing.”

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Four killed in latest US strike on alleged drug boat

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Four killed in latest US strike on alleged drug boat

Four people have been killed in the latest US strike on an alleged drug boat amid growing unease at the legality of the attacks.

The small vessel, which was hit in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Thursday, is the 22nd destroyed by the US military on suspicion of drug trafficking.

It is the first such attack after a pause of nearly three weeks.

At least 87 people have now been killed during Donald Trump‘s “war” with drug cartels, which has also seen vessels targeted in the Caribbean Sea, including near Venezuela.

The vessel explodes in flames. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The vessel explodes in flames. Pic: Reuters

Video of the strike shows a small boat moving across the water before it is suddenly hit by a large explosion.

The boat is then seen engulfed in flames and billowing smoke as the camera zooms out.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, US Southern Command described those killed as “four male narco-terrorists“.

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“Intelligence confirmed that the vessel was carrying illicit narcotics and transiting along a known narco-trafficking route in the Eastern Pacific,” the post said.

The Trump administration has been weighing options to combat what it has portrayed as Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro‘s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.

The socialist leader has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.

Venezuela has said the boat attacks amount to murder – and that President Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.

It comes as an investigation in Washington DC has started looking into the very first strike on an alleged drug boat on 2 September in international waters near Venezuela.

On that occasion, US navy admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley is accused of ordering a follow-up strike to kill the survivors.

This reportedly followed demands from defence secretary Pete Hegseth that the navy “kill them all”.

The admiral briefed politicians in a series of closed-door briefings at the US Capitol on Thursday, and denied there was any such order from Mr Hegseth.

Admiral Frank 'Mitch' Bradley arrives at the US Capitol for a classified briefing on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Admiral Frank ‘Mitch’ Bradley arrives at the US Capitol for a classified briefing on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

Mr Hegseth said the admiral “made the correct decision to ultimately sink the boat and eliminate the threat”.

But speaking on Air Force One last Sunday, the president said he was unaware of the second strike and would not have wanted it, though he backed Mr Hegseth.

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A video of the 2 September strike, which killed 11 people, has been shown to politicians, but accounts of its contents split along party lines.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said the survivors were “trying to flip a boat loaded with drugs bound for United States back over so they could stay in the fight”.

Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting at the White House on 2 December. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting at the White House on 2 December. Pic: Reuters

His party colleague, representative Rick Crawford of Arkansas, issued a statement saying the strikes were legal.

But representative Jim Himes of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said: “What I saw in that room was one of the most troubling things I’ve seen in my time in public service.

“You have two individuals in clear distress, without any means of locomotion, with a destroyed vessel.”

They “were killed by the United States”, he said.

Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, echoed his account.

Democrat representative Adam Smith of Washington (L) leaving the briefing. Pic: AP
Image:
Democrat representative Adam Smith of Washington (L) leaving the briefing. Pic: AP

He said the survivors were “basically two shirtless people clinging to the bow of a capsized and inoperable boat, drifting in the water – until the missiles come and kill them”.

Likewise, Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he was “deeply disturbed” by the video, and called for it to be made public.

“This briefing confirmed my worst fears about the nature of the Trump Administration’s military activities,” he said in a statement.

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Even if the campaign against the suspected drug-trafficking boats had been authorised by Congress, ex-military lawyers said the strike against survivors would be a war crime if the military knowingly killed survivors.

Attacks on combatants who are incapacitated, unconscious or shipwrecked are forbidden by the defence department’s law of war manual – provided the survivors abstain from hostilities and do not attempt to escape.

Firing upon shipwreck survivors is cited as an example of a “clearly illegal” order that should be refused.

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